The challenge ahead

[StatTiger 3,188]

Keys to a championship season...

• Talent: Auburn might not be the most talented team in the SEC but they have recruited well enough to be in the nation's top-15, if not top-10. The key in this category will be player development, which is too early to tell under Malzahn's staff. It appears they are off to a good start. Auburn is in good shape entering the 2014 season.
  

• Depth: In this day & age of college football, very few teams are stocked with depth across the board. Each team tends to have a few issues at certain positions, when it comes to "quality" depth. The key IMO, is having quality depth up front on both sides of the line. Auburn for the most part, appears to be in good shape coming into the 2014 season.
  

• Experience: Over the past decade, experience has played a major role in Auburn being successful on the field. I have applied the "20-10 rule", which is having at least 20 players with 20 games of experience, including at least 10 players with 30-games of experience. Over the past decade, Auburn has compiled a win pct. of .894 during seasons when the 20-10 rule applied and a win pct. of .524, when the Tigers failed to reach it. This includes a record of 19-2 in close games during seasons, when the 20-10 rule applied and 12-13, when it did not. Auburn enters the 2014 season with a "22-15" roster.
  

• Quarterback: Behind almost every championship team is quality and consistent play at the QB position. The return of Nick Marshall is a huge advantage for the Tigers, as he will be the highest rated starting QB returning in the SEC. He has already led Auburn to one championship season and is poised to pick up, where he left off in 2013. Don't get caught up in quarterback comparisons across the nation. All that matters is what Marshall means to the Auburn offense. The offense will be centered around the rising senior and for good reasons. The key here is Marshall actually improved as the 2013 season progressed, despite the schedule becoming more difficult. Auburn is in excellent shape here for 2014.
  

• Coaching: Personnel development, game planning and game-day coaching is always huge. Player development remains a question mark, primarily because this is only the second season under Malzahn's staff. We witnessed good things during 2013, when it came to game planning and game-day coaching. Auburn's 2014 schedule will certainly be a major challenge for the Auburn coaching staff in 2014.
  

• Injuries: This is a crucial area, Auburn's staff or any other staff won't ever possess total control of. Conditioning is essential here but even great conditioning will not prevent knee injuries, concussions or broken bones. The Tigers are already feeling the effect of injuries and the season has yet to start. This almost always has a trickle-down effect on depth and player development.
  

• Luck: Every championship team needs a few breaks along the way, especially when it comes to close ball games. From 2000-2013, over 1/3 of the conference games in the SEC have been decided by 7-pts or less. Having the ball bounce your way more than not, can make or break a championship season. Of course luck can sometimes be defined as, "When preparation and effort come together". In other words, good teams can generate their own luck at times. I thought Malzahn's staff was very successful in obtaining the most from their existing talent and personnel.
  

• Schedule: Of the categories listed above, this might be the one that makes or breaks Auburn's drive to another championship season. The second half of the season will be brutal for the Auburn Tigers. Beginning in the month of October, Auburn could close out the season, facing 10 of 11 opponents at the FBS level with winning records, in order to win it all. Of those 10 games, seven will be on the road. This is a major challenge for any team, regardless of their talent level. Overall, Auburn could very well be a better team than 2013, yet still have 2-3 losses in 2014.
  

Thoughts?

[WarNole 141]

Great points, Stat.

[AUcivE09 582]

Having so many tough games on the road definitely worries me. One thought - how have experienced teams (Meeting the 20-10 rule) faired on the road against ranked opponents?

[StatTiger 3,188]

Having so many tough games on the road definitely worries me. One thought - how have experienced teams (Meeting the 20-10 rule) faired on the road against ranked opponents?

10-4 away from Jordan-Hare against ranked opponents from 2004-2013.

[AUloggerhead 2,227]

On the subject of the schedule ... AU's schedule from 1983 was one of the most difficult ever and they sorta did OK. This 2014 team is capable of overcoming a tough schedule too.

[McLoofus 35,182]

I hope that we fare a little better protecting leads this season. We were up 27-10 on UGA at halftime and lost the 4th quarter 21-9. We won the first half against FSU 21-10 and lost the 4th quarter 21-10. I don't know what needs to change. It felt like Gus went away from what was working offensively in those games, but I haven't gone back and watched them. I know those are only 2 examples, but they just happen to be 2 of the 5 most important games of the season (IMO) and the collapses were pretty rough.

-Lumping talent, depth, experience, quarterback and injuries together, I say we're fine. Our depth on offense is enough to overcome any injuries. Maybe not on defense, but our defense isn't going to be our strength anyway.

-I'm not too wrapped up in the schedule. It would be nice if we could have gotten that 2nd bye, say, after the Ole Miss or TAMU game, but the road trips don't scare me. Let's not forget that almost all of these teams are breaking in new QBs.

-Like you said, luck is what it is. Can't plan for it.

-That leaves coaching, and as I mentioned above, I think we're just a few game day adjustments away from having the best in the land.

Thanks for providing the stats, as always. The 20-10 stat is always interesting to think about, and very encouraging this season!

[NoALtiger 3,849]

Schedule is obviously the key. We could and should be improved over last year but lose more games overall. It happens. As long as we are improving, it will work out as it should.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

When looking at the roster and experience, this team reminds me a lot of the 2010 team. I think strength of schedule can be over emphasized. Even if we swapped out USCe for Tenn or Vandy, it doesn't change the marathon of a season we have to face. Complaining about Bama and UGA on the road should be avoided because having them at home last year helped us. The experience we have will help us deal with the schedule.

[AUbritt 611]

Experience, depth, coaching, and luck will all be needed to get through our schedule unscathed. I think we can do it, especially if we stay healthy!

[bdc81 89]

Having so many tough games on the road definitely worries me. One thought - how have experienced teams (Meeting the 20-10 rule) faired on the road against ranked opponents?

10-4 away from Jordan-Hare against ranked opponents from 2004-2013.

ST We lost away games to UA, UGA and Clemson in 2012

I count 7 losses on the road to ranked opponents in those 10 years

Little doc

[StatTiger 3,188]

On the subject of the schedule ... AU's schedule from 1983 was one of the most difficult ever and they sorta did OK. This 2014 team is capable of overcoming a tough schedule too.

The 83 schedule was one of the toughest in school history. The 83 team closed out the season with 5 consecutive games against ranked opponents. Fortunately, 3 of those were at home. In order to win the NC in 2014, it will likely take 5 consecutive road victories against ranked opponents, excluding the Samford game sandwiched in between UGA and UAT.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Having so many tough games on the road definitely worries me. One thought - how have experienced teams (Meeting the 20-10 rule) faired on the road against ranked opponents?

10-4 away from Jordan-Hare against ranked opponents from 2004-2013.

ST We lost 4 away games to UA, UGA LSU and Clemson in 2012

I count 10 losses on the road to ranked opponents in those 10 years

Little doc

The 2012 season was not a "20-10" season, when it came to experience.

[AUbritt 611]

Stat, I don't expect that you've done this, since it would be incredibly time-consuming. But have you looked to see whether the 20-10 rule has applicability beyond Auburn? I would tend to think it would.

Also, I'm curious whether you've looked at our opponents to see if they meet the 20-10 criterion.

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

10-4 away from Jordan-Hare against ranked opponents from 2004-2013.

Let's see. I'm just guessing since you didn't point out which seasons had the 20-10 rule.

2005 LSU

2007 LSU

2007 Georgia(blackout, ughhh)

and 2009 LSU? Im not sure what the last loss would be but 2009 LSU would be my guess.

[StatTiger 3,188]

10-4 away from Jordan-Hare against ranked opponents from 2004-2013.

Let's see. I'm just guessing since you didn't point out which seasons had the 20-10 rule.

2005 LSU

2007 LSU

2007 Georgia(blackout, ughhh)

and 2009 LSU? Im not sure what the last loss would be but 2009 LSU would be my guess.

2004, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2013

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

2004, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2013

Ok. Thanks. Since you said "away" that also means neutral site games right? Our only losses in 2006 were both at home.

That would make the losses:

2005 LSU

2006 Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin

2013 LSU

2014 BCS NC Game - Florida State

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

This might be the hardest schedule of the modern era if Ole Miss and Mississippi State follow their hype.

[StatTiger 3,188]

This might be the hardest schedule of the modern era if Ole Miss and Mississippi State follow their hype.

I agree. If that is the case and AU goes undefeated, the 2014 Tigers would have to be considered one of the best in school history if not the best.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

This might be the hardest schedule of the modern era if Ole Miss and Mississippi State follow their hype.

I agree. If that is the case and AU goes undefeated, the 2014 Tigers would have to be considered one of the best in school history if not the best.

Their only real competition in that case would be 2010 Auburn, 1957 Auburn, and maybe 1913.

[WFE12 9,191]

most think that our pass defense will only be solid, i believe they can be scary, feel real good about derrick moncrief...i believe he will be a leader on defense, his hard hits will get everybody fired up! Pass defense HAS to be better cuz im tired of auburn scoring all those points and the opposing team scoring alot of points too..i know it is harder because of the hunh offense where aub could have chances of 3 and outting so fast that it tires the defense out...hope that doesn't happen

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

This might be the hardest schedule of the modern era if Ole Miss and Mississippi State follow their hype.

I'm not just worried about the Mississippi teams, I'm conerned about our first game of the season against Arkansas.

Arkansas is physical. I'm sure Arkansas has been trying to improve their defense to help their offense. We'll get a decent idea of how good our offense is this year if we can score a lot on Arkansas. Don't sleep on Arkansas. I think they're going to throw the kitchen sink at us. If Arkansas loses bad to Auburn it could be another long season for the Razorbacks and Bret Bielema's seat will start to get hot. So I expect Arkansas to be steaming to try and upset us.

[CJBas 4]

Thanks for all the work you do, Stat.

I think this year will tell us a lot about Malzahn's staying power as a HC. It's clear that he has a great depth of technical knowledge about the game. If he can keep the morale side of things up - dedication, drive, hunger, determination - then he'll make an excellent HC in college. Otherwise he may be better suited for the NFL.

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

Defense. The #1 improvement in this season needs to be defense. Which includes ole Ellis' coaching. This board has come up with some real whoppers as to why our D was "just fine" last season but the facts (er, stats) show our D was horrific in some key areas...again...last year. My favorite was "just look at the win/loss record, that proves our defense is just fine". Giving up "big" plays (defined by stattiger) is just one important area that was again abysmal. The "cupboard's bare" excuse for ole Ellis worshippers pretty well ran out last season and he has plenty to work with this year. Our O will be more than just fine. Time for Ellis to put up or circulate resumes. Or retire. Ted Roof could use a line coach.

[Timeslider 6 269]

Defense. The #1 improvement in this season needs to be defense. Which includes ole Ellis' coaching. This board has come up with some real whoppers as to why our D was "just fine" last season but the facts (er, stats) show our D was horrific in some key areas...again...last year. My favorite was "just look at the win/loss record, that proves our defense is just fine". Giving up "big" plays (defined by stattiger) is just one important area that was again abysmal. The "cupboard's bare" excuse for ole Ellis worshippers pretty well ran out last season and he has plenty to work with this year. Our O will be more than just fine. Time for Ellis to put up or circulate resumes. Or retire. Ted Roof could use a line coach.

I believe it would be a huge mistake to get rid of CEJ without giving him TIME. HELLOOOOO, just like every other place he has been he needs time to get HIS guys playing HIS defense. He has been here just one year and already some people are sounding like he has failed. Some posters need to really get a grip on reality. CEJ is a very good coach and he will succeed at Auburn. So please give Gus the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the decisions he makes it regards to his coaches. Gus has proven he knows what he is doing and knows when to do it. :angry:

[keesler 5,924]

Defense. The #1 improvement in this season needs to be defense. Which includes ole Ellis' coaching. This board has come up with some real whoppers as to why our D was "just fine" last season but the facts (er, stats) show our D was horrific in some key areas...again...last year. My favorite was "just look at the win/loss record, that proves our defense is just fine". Giving up "big" plays (defined by stattiger) is just one important area that was again abysmal. The "cupboard's bare" excuse for ole Ellis worshippers pretty well ran out last season and he has plenty to work with this year. Our O will be more than just fine. Time for Ellis to put up or circulate resumes. Or retire. Ted Roof could use a line coach.

Damn! I'd hate to see what your posts would be like if Auburn wasn't the reigning conference champs and had just made an appearance in the BCSNC game a few months ago. :-\