Putting things into perspective

[StatTiger 3,188]

Some fans keep commenting on Auburn needing to find an offensive identity, which is puzzling to comprehend. Auburn through 6 games is No. 21 nationally averaging 487-yards per game and No. 15, in scoring-offense, averaging 39 PPG. A team that is struggling to find it's offensive identity looks like Florida or Vanderbilt. They certainly don't look like a team that averages over 480-yards per game and nearly 40 PPG.

To put things in perspective, consider the following. From 1990-2013, only 13 of 288 SEC teams (4.5%) finished the season averaging over 480-yards per game. The Auburn run-offense, though not at the level of 2013 is still very good. AU has surpassed 200+ yards rushing in 5 of 6 games. Auburn can still run the football and people must realize 2013 was an exception to the rule. Since 1960, only 38 of 598 SEC teams averaged more than 260-yards rushing per game (6.3%). From 1990-2013, only 3 of 288 SEC teams (1%) averaged more than 260-yards rushing per game and only 1 averaged more than 300 (Auburn 2013).

Auburn is currently averaging 277.3 yards rushing in conference play, No. 1 in the SEC. Of the 302 SEC teams from 1990-2014, Auburn's current average of 262-yards rushing per game is the 6th best average during that time frame. Yes, Auburn isn't running the football like 2013 but it is far from being broke. Only 5 other teams have done it better than the 2014 Auburn Tigers among 302 SEC teams. The media talks about the powerful Arkansas running game currently averaging 256.9 yards per game but fail to mention only 163.2 yards per game in conference play.

Is everything perfect through 6 games? Nope but the coaches and players know this. Hopefully they were able to take advantage of this recent bye-week to make some fine adjustments on offense. There has been plenty of self-scouting and evaluation to become more consistent moving forward. I associate the words, "lack of identity" with being lost. Auburn isn't lost offensively. Are they having consistency issues stemming from poor execution? You bet.

The coaching staff came into this season wanting to generate more explosive plays in the pass-offense. They knew duplicating last year's rushing numbers was virtually impossible with the departures AU suffered in personnel loss. I believe the coaching staff wants to address a few issues of consistency, when it comes to execution but that is a far cry from lacking an offensive identity. Nothing has changed from a schematic point of view, when it comes to offensive goals. Malzahn wants to run the football (be physical) and have a vertical passing offense to compliment the running game.

Most of the breakdowns suffered on offense through 6 games has more to do with execution than player personnel. The Tigers are striving to be more physical up front and are having to deal with losing a starting guard (Alex Kozan) before the season began along with the early departure of Greg Robinson. The recent in jury to Patrick Miller resulted in another OL shuffle. This is why Braden Smith is now getting a look at the guard position. The coaches want more explosiveness at the RB position, so Roc Thomas will likely have an expanded role. This doesn't mean that Cameron Artis-Payne has been a failure. He is far from it, currently ranked No. 20 nationally in rushing. He is also on pace for a 1400+ yard season within a 13-game season. I cannot wait to see what Roc Thomas physically looks like next year with an off-season conditioning program under his belt. He certainly has the burst Tre Mason possessed. Ricardo Louis was not performing consistently so Quan Bray is getting more reps. I've heard comments that Gus Malzahn is too loyal or stubborn to make personnel changes. The examples I just listed is proof otherwise and there have been other changes during the first-half of the season. We have seen various rotations of the bigger WR's (Ray and Denson) and TE's to improve setting the edge and perimeter blocking. As for the quarterback position, I have no doubt the coaches will give Jeremy Johnson a shot if THEY feel Nick Marshall is not delivering at the level they want. Until that moment happens, I'm going to believe the coaches still have full confidence in their starting quarterback.

Through 6 games into 2014, Nick Marshall has a better TD-INT ratio than 2013. It was 6-4 last year and 10-3 this year. His ratio of impact plays in the passing-game is better in 2014 than 2013. Last season only 31% of his third-down passes resulted in a first down and this year it is 44%. With the same number of rush attempts through 6 games, Marshall is also gaining more yards per rush than 2013. Auburn's pass-offense through 6 games is currently No. 14 nationally in generating 1st downs or touchdowns and No. 24 in pass-efficiency. The only significant drop in his passing numbers has come on first-down. Marshall is completing 62% this season compared to 67% through 6 games into 2013.

I'm looking forward to see how Auburn responds this Saturday night against the Gamecocks. Last season the offense continued to improve after their bye-week, following the LSU defeat. Hopefully, we will see similar results this season.

[atleagles 1]

Great analysis and insight as always..."consistency issues stemming from poor execution" is where we have to improve IMO.

Thanks and War Eagle!!!

[autig90 67]

Great points Stat.

[FootballFanatic 4]

I don't think the problem is whether the team is good. It is whether the team is good enough to finish out the season with a chance to play for the NC. I am not seeing that from my point of view.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

Ricardo will never have good hands will he? Anyone got his HS film?

Felt like he could be the next Harvin if he could consistently catch a ball (including special teams) and hold it

[gman87 398]

First off, I think Stat hit the nail on the head. A lot of posters get emotional after sloppy wins like K St and losses like MSU so you have to take what they say with a grain of salt. The problem I see is our difficulties running in the middle and it's multifaceted. CAP is a step slow hitting holes that aren't open either very long or at all. The OL problems can be fixed in time, we already have the personnel, they just need time to heal and gel. If those guys can sustain blocks and open up the running game where we aren't held to 1-2 yards on first down consistently, the whole offense will open up, especially the perimeter plays.

I like that ROC is getting reps. I would like to see him early in games and then put CAP in later with fresh legs as a punisher.

[Tiger 8,817]

Ricardo will never have good hands will he? Anyone got his HS film?

Felt like he could be the next Harvin if he could consistently catch a ball (including special teams) and hold it

In year #3 for Ricardo he still drops one pass that hits him squarely in the hands or numbers per game. Frustrating to see him drop bubble screens. Is this a Dameyune Craig issue? Or is Louis just what he is as a WR at this point?

[1TexasTiger 55]

Ricardo will never have good hands will he? Anyone got his HS film?

Felt like he could be the next Harvin if he could consistently catch a ball (including special teams) and hold it

In year #3 for Ricardo he still drops one pass that hits him squarely in the hands or numbers per game. Frustrating to see him drop bubble screens. Is this a Dameyune Craig issue? Or is Louis just what he is as a WR at this point?

Wr production under Craig has been excellent. Before he got here WR play was a weakness

[Auburn4life 24]

Great info stat. My only concern is the passes tipped or blocked, but the stat averages are probably similiar to last year in this category. I guess I am just noticing it more this year. Auburn is passing it more this year which gives more chances for tips and blocks.

[Plaric 4]

If we don't spazz out and gift MSU 21 points we are undefeated right now. I don't even blame our offense too much for those either. More luck of the draw. Sure the tipped passes could be helped by the Oline but whatever. Our offense is fine and our defense is so much improved.

Gonna be a fun year. Thanks MSU....you slapped the dragon on the ass and it is breathing fire at the rest of the sec.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Great info stat. My only concern is the passes tipped or blocked, but the stat averages are probably similiar to last year in this category. I guess I am just noticing it more this year. Auburn is passing it more this year which gives more chances for tips and blocks.

The tipped balls at the line were addressed during the bye-week. I expect to see some different blocking on certain pass-plays and to see underneath routes to drap LB's out of the way for other routes.

[StatTiger 3,188]

First off, I think Stat hit the nail on the head. A lot of posters get emotional after sloppy wins like K St and losses like MSU so you have to take what they say with a grain of salt. The problem I see is our difficulties running in the middle and it's multifaceted. CAP is a step slow hitting holes that aren't open either very long or at all. The OL problems can be fixed in time, we already have the personnel, they just need time to heal and gel. If those guys can sustain blocks and open up the running game where we aren't held to 1-2 yards on first down consistently, the whole offense will open up, especially the perimeter plays.

I like that ROC is getting reps. I would like to see him early in games and then put CAP in later with fresh legs as a punisher.

No doubt offensive production on first down is not what it was last season. Last season AU was No. 29 in pass-efficiency on first down, which down to No. 89 this season. Last year AU was No. 3 in yards per rush on first down, which is down to No. 34 this season.

[StatTiger 3,188]

If we don't spazz out and gift MSU 21 points we are undefeated right now. I don't even blame our offense too much for those either. More luck of the draw. Sure the tipped passes could be helped by the Oline but whatever. Our offense is fine and our defense is so much improved.

Gonna be a fun year. Thanks MSU....you slapped the dragon on the ass and it is breathing fire at the rest of the sec.

Mikey in another thread commented on this topic of offense and defense. His view wasn't popular but there was a lot of truth to his comments. The defense has struggled the last 5 years for the most part. We have seen some great improvement this year but they did struggle, when it was needed the most against MSU. The 3 short TD drives MSU produced off of turnovers was a prime example. Hard not give up any points in those 3 situations but it would have been far better if the defense had held MSU to 13 points rather than 21 points. Ellis Johnson is trying to get AU a pass-rush without blitzing but he is limited in personnel. Not having a true "rush" DE is hurting the defense.

[AUsince72 11,084]

Thank you for the perspective piece using facts & figures Stat. Though I'm admittedly more sunshine pumper than complainer, it's nice to see those figures back up what I've been feeling about this team. After last season and all of the "lucky" talk, hey, AU fell victim to the bad kind of luck against MSU (I mean, just how often does a team's first two offensive possessions go THAT way, afterall?).... I've said it before, I feel like knowledgeable football fans can tell the difference between a team that's working through some things and maybe even falling victim to bad calls, bounces...luck.... and teams that just can't get out of their own way, ie: when the wheels are falling off and the coaching staff is going into a meltdown mode (Bowden, Chizik.... Muschamp at UF)... To me, it seems like, until this coaching staff shows that it truly doesn't know what it's doing, there's no reason to expect that they cannot fix what's not working right and turn this team back into the juggernaut that it was ending the 2013 season. I feel like MSU will lose 1 or even 2 games ahead and ALL of AU's goals are still in front of them.

With that said, if AU comes out in orange jerseys, get shut-out by thUGA and uat and finish 6-6 then I'll say "nevermind".... Nah, I prefer my glass 1/2 full.

[OnthePlains 2,014]

The last several years has been the worst era of Auburn defense I have seen in my Auburn football watching life (since mid 80's). They definitely could have played better against MSU after those turnovers but they also made two crucial stops late and gave the offense the ball only down 8 twice and the offense couldnt capitalize. Overall the defense looks better than it has in years and I will take the improvement, but they will have to play better for Auburn to run the table.

[StatTiger 3,188]

The last several years has been the worst era of Auburn defense I have seen in my Auburn football watching life (since mid 80's). They definitely could have played better against MSU after those turnovers but they also made two crucial stops late and gave the offense the ball only down 8 twice and the offense couldnt capitalize. Overall the defense looks better than it has in years and I will take the improvement, but they will have to play better for Auburn to run the table.

Defense continues to improve from last season. Recruiting will help down the road. AU will need a big game from the defense against Ole Miss. I don't see the offense scoring more than 24 against the Rebels.

[OnthePlains 2,014]

The last several years has been the worst era of Auburn defense I have seen in my Auburn football watching life (since mid 80's). They definitely could have played better against MSU after those turnovers but they also made two crucial stops late and gave the offense the ball only down 8 twice and the offense couldnt capitalize. Overall the defense looks better than it has in years and I will take the improvement, but they will have to play better for Auburn to run the table.

Defense continues to improve from last season. Recruiting will help down the road. AU will need a big game from the defense against Ole Miss. I don't see the offense scoring more than 24 against the Rebels.

Agreed, that Rebel defense is for real.

[AUenginerd 16]

Defense continues to improve from last season. Recruiting will help down the road. AU will need a big game from the defense against Ole Miss. I don't see the offense scoring more than 24 against the Rebels.

24 against the Rebs would be enough for a win IMO. They have no running game, so hopefully we can generate enough pressure to make the bad Bo Wallace to make an appearance.

[DKW 86 7,410]

Stat:

Opinion, do we go ahead and play CAP with the rotation we have now, or do we get Roc his reps now?

[StatTiger 3,188]

Stat:

Opinion, do we go ahead and play CAP with the rotation we have now, or do we get Roc his reps now?

Both will play. I see CAP having most of the reps for now but if Roc continues to make plays, his snaps will likely increase. Coaches like his burst to the hole, which are not as frequent as last season.

[SumterAubie 3,031]

Playing Thomas over Barber is suprising to me. Of course I don't know the attributes of one over the other. But provides an example of taking a player's opinion of another player with a grain of salt.

[mom2kid 216]

First off, I think Stat hit the nail on the head. A lot of posters get emotional after sloppy wins like K St and losses like MSU so you have to take what they say with a grain of salt. The problem I see is our difficulties running in the middle and it's multifaceted. CAP is a step slow hitting holes that aren't open either very long or at all. The OL problems can be fixed in time, we already have the personnel, they just need time to heal and gel. If those guys can sustain blocks and open up the running game where we aren't held to 1-2 yards on first down consistently, the whole offense will open up, especially the perimeter plays.

I like that ROC is getting reps. I would like to see him early in games and then put CAP in later with fresh legs as a punisher.

No doubt offensive production on first down is not what it was last season. Last season AU was No. 29 in pass-efficiency on first down, which down to No. 89 this season. Last year AU was No. 3 in yards per rush on first down, which is down to No. 34 this season.

Another great post Stat Tiger. The fans have concerns that are not necessarily reflected in stats. 1) The power running game perceived to be less than last season partly due to lack of blocking and partly due to the power back. 2) The tipped passes (partly due to mechanics) and lower numbers on passing efficiency in NM's second year. 3) The Oline blocking issues and lack of push off the blocks. 4) The Dline lack of pass rush combined with a lack of Dline recruits for 2015. Mullin has done a great job recruiting lineman and coaching them up. Hope we can do the same.

And for a team that substitutes freely, we haven't done so at running back. And do we know what happened to Melvin Ray?

[WFE12 9,191]

Playing Thomas over Barber is suprising to me. Of course I don't know the attributes of one over the other. But provides an example of taking a player's opinion of another player with a grain of salt.

meanwhile grant is just sitting there like chopped liver.....

[StatTiger 3,188]

Playing Thomas over Barber is suprising to me. Of course I don't know the attributes of one over the other. But provides an example of taking a player's opinion of another player with a grain of salt.

meanwhile grant is just sitting there like chopped liver.....

Auburn has struggled setting the edge the past few games and blocking on the perimeter has been inconsistent. During Grant's first 20 carries, only 2 attempts were held to 2-yards or less with zero tackles for loss. During his last 20 carries, 11 have been held for 2-yards or less, with 4 tackles for loss. This is why we have seen less of Grant and speed-sweeps in general.

[Tiger 8,817]

Defense continues to improve from last season. Recruiting will help down the road. AU will need a big game from the defense against Ole Miss. I don't see the offense scoring more than 24 against the Rebels.

24 against the Rebs would be enough for a win IMO. They have no running game, so hopefully we can generate enough pressure to make the bad Bo Wallace to make an appearance.

Unfortunately this sets up very nicely for Ole Miss. We have not gotten any pressure on QBs this year, and at this point I believe we are what we are. In my opinion, we won't be getting pressure on QBs during the remaining games on the schedule.