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Which top 10 team(s) will lose this week?


AU64

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Guess it will take an Ole Miss win over AU for me to be convinced they are for real.....thus I would not be too surprised to see the Tigers take the Rebs on Saturday night.

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First I agree with Mcloofus, I think too many get to carried away with the playoffs. Our first concern should always be winning the west, so we root for whoever is playing a team that is front of us. In this case LSU, Tennessee and KY. Second I agree with AUcanucktiger, Road games have proved tough. uat was lucky to win at arky, LSU's big loss was at AU's house.Some of Uga's bad games came on the road. Remember Miles record in home game especially at night I think it is possible that OM. uat and MSU could all fall. WDE

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I'm going with Tennessee over Alabama only because of the hate spewing from those 100,000+ fans in that stadium. On paper Tennessee doesn't stand a chance, but an Alabama letdown after a 59-0 win at home over #21 (cough, cough) Texas A&M, plus the return of Kiffin to Knoxville looms large in this revenge game for the Vols. 27-25 Vols on a blocked last-second FG attempt by Bama.

Have you seen the Vols play this year? I just wish we could play them again this year and give them another beat down. They are horrible. Would love for you to be right but I expect Bama to hammer them good.

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UT just isn't ready to compete at this point. I'd love to see it, but realistically, that may be the least likely upset for any top ten team.

LSU has already been dominated at home, at night by a similarly talented team. They're coming into the game without a clear answer at QB, and the current starter (Jennings) is below average. Even in a blow out (against UK), Jennings hit only 50% of his passes for one score. LSU just ran it down UK's throat. No one is going to do that to Ole Miss. Last week, the Rebs defense held Tennessee to ZERO yards rushing on 28 carries. The week before, A&M posted 54 yards on 35 carries. In other words, Jennings or Harris will have to play huge in the teeth of a great secondary. It's just not gonna happen.

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I'm buying into the Ole Miss prediction although I do hope they prevail over Mississippi State. I have "unresolved issues" with cowbell chaotica.

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Watch out for Oregon getting upset. Playing Cal which is actually playing pretty good at this time.

Cal is 120th in the nation in points allowed. No way their defense can make enough stops against an elite O. I think the game will be fun to watch but Oregon will win it by 21+

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First I agree with Mcloofus, I think too many get to carried away with the playoffs. Our first concern should always be winning the west, so we root for whoever is playing a team that is front of us. In this case LSU, Tennessee and KY. Second I agree with AUcanucktiger, Road games have proved tough. uat was lucky to win at arky, LSU's big loss was at AU's house.Some of Uga's bad games came on the road. Remember Miles record in home game especially at night I think it is possible that OM. uat and MSU could all fall. WDE

Interesting. Hope for the 4th most important goal first (winning our half of our conference) then hope the 3d (winning the conference), 2d (getting into the playoffs) and 1st (winning a national title) fall in line.
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Watch out for Oregon getting upset. Playing Cal which is actually playing pretty good at this time.

Cal is 120th in the nation in points allowed. No way their defense can make enough stops against an elite O. I think the game will be fun to watch but Oregon will win it by 21+

The year we beat Oregon for the national title, the only reason a horrendous Cal team didn't beat Oregon was a missed Cal chip shot FG. Cal gets up for the Ducks and Oregon usually doesn't play their best against Cal. Might not happen, just typing on a fan board.

fwiw, Louisville is a capable team with nothing to lose, playing at home against a let-down candidate FSU. This is FSU's last hurdle until the playoffs.

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First I agree with Mcloofus, I think too many get to carried away with the playoffs. Our first concern should always be winning the west, so we root for whoever is playing a team that is front of us. In this case LSU, Tennessee and KY. Second I agree with AUcanucktiger, Road games have proved tough. uat was lucky to win at arky, LSU's big loss was at AU's house.Some of Uga's bad games came on the road. Remember Miles record in home game especially at night I think it is possible that OM. uat and MSU could all fall. WDE

This isn't quite true. We still get to play Ole Miss, and would hop ahead of them if we beat them (which we would need to do to win the West). Ole Miss at this point isn't our biggest threat to making the playoff, Mississippi State is because they own the head to head victory. Mississippi State only has two games left that they could realistically lose, Bama, and @Ole Miss. Obviously, if they lose both of those games we would hop ahead of them if we win out. BUT, we could also hop ahead of them if they beat Bama but lose to a 1-loss (to us) Ole Miss. That would put the us in a 3-way tie with the two Mississippi teams. We would win the tie-breaker by merit of having stronger eastern division opponents. However, this scenario only works if Ole Miss is part of the tie-breaker. So we want them to keep winning as it greatly helps us in our chances of winning the west.

It also means that we don't necessarily have to root for Bama to beat Mississippi State.

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Pulling for LSU this week. That's pretty odd to type. :)

You shouldn't be. LSU upsetting Ole Miss would greatly hurt our chances of winning the west.

Huh?

^ Explained. Ole Miss is not a threat to us as we still get to play them/ thus could hop them simply by beating them. But they could be useful in a 3-way tie if they keep winning.

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Pulling for LSU this week. That's pretty odd to type. :)

You shouldn't be. LSU upsetting Ole Miss would greatly hurt our chances of winning the west.

Huh?

^ Explained. Ole Miss is not a threat to us as we still get to play them/ thus could hop them simply by beating them. But they could be useful in a 3-way tie if they keep winning.

Still doesn't make sense. Ole Miss losing ABSOLUTELY helps Auburn win the west. If they lose then lose to us that's 2 SEC losses for Ole Miss... which effectively throws them out of SEC West contention.

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First I agree with Mcloofus, I think too many get to carried away with the playoffs. Our first concern should always be winning the west, so we root for whoever is playing a team that is front of us. In this case LSU, Tennessee and KY. Second I agree with AUcanucktiger, Road games have proved tough. uat was lucky to win at arky, LSU's big loss was at AU's house.Some of Uga's bad games came on the road. Remember Miles record in home game especially at night I think it is possible that OM. uat and MSU could all fall. WDE

This isn't quite true. We still get to play Ole Miss, and would hop ahead of them if we beat them (which we would need to do to win the West). Ole Miss at this point isn't our biggest threat to making the playoff, Mississippi State is because they own the head to head victory. Mississippi State only has two games left that they could realistically lose, Bama, and @Ole Miss. Obviously, if they lose both of those games we would hop ahead of them if we win out. BUT, we could also hop ahead of them if they beat Bama but lose to a 1-loss (to us) Ole Miss. That would put the us in a 3-way tie with the two Mississippi teams. We would win the tie-breaker by merit of having stronger eastern division opponents. However, this scenario only works if Ole Miss is part of the tie-breaker. So we want them to keep winning as it greatly helps us in our chances of winning the west.

It also means that we don't necessarily have to root for Bama to beat Mississippi State.

That's a ton of supposition. MSU losing two and Auburn winning out is at least as likely as your hypothetical above. MSU tried to lose the only important game they've played with a target on their back- we just refused to win it (and neither the football gods nor the refs tried to change our minds). Plus UK isn't a terrible team, Lexington's a long way from Mootown and Arky- who's no joke, either- gets a tuneup game with UAB this weekend.

I'm good with my original stance.

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Pulling for LSU this week. That's pretty odd to type. :)

You shouldn't be. LSU upsetting Ole Miss would greatly hurt our chances of winning the west.

Huh?

^ Explained. Ole Miss is not a threat to us as we still get to play them/ thus could hop them simply by beating them. But they could be useful in a 3-way tie if they keep winning.

Still doesn't make sense. Ole Miss losing ABSOLUTELY helps Auburn win the west. If they lose then lose to us that's 2 SEC losses for Ole Miss... which effectively throws them out of SEC West contention.

But a second loss for Ole Miss doesn't matter. We almost certainly will not win the West if we have two losses. If we win out, it is MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for Ole Miss to win the West. Period. Thus Ole Miss losing to LSU will not help us. However, it can hurt us.

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First I agree with Mcloofus, I think too many get to carried away with the playoffs. Our first concern should always be winning the west, so we root for whoever is playing a team that is front of us. In this case LSU, Tennessee and KY. Second I agree with AUcanucktiger, Road games have proved tough. uat was lucky to win at arky, LSU's big loss was at AU's house.Some of Uga's bad games came on the road. Remember Miles record in home game especially at night I think it is possible that OM. uat and MSU could all fall. WDE

This isn't quite true. We still get to play Ole Miss, and would hop ahead of them if we beat them (which we would need to do to win the West). Ole Miss at this point isn't our biggest threat to making the playoff, Mississippi State is because they own the head to head victory. Mississippi State only has two games left that they could realistically lose, Bama, and @Ole Miss. Obviously, if they lose both of those games we would hop ahead of them if we win out. BUT, we could also hop ahead of them if they beat Bama but lose to a 1-loss (to us) Ole Miss. That would put the us in a 3-way tie with the two Mississippi teams. We would win the tie-breaker by merit of having stronger eastern division opponents. However, this scenario only works if Ole Miss is part of the tie-breaker. So we want them to keep winning as it greatly helps us in our chances of winning the west.

It also means that we don't necessarily have to root for Bama to beat Mississippi State.

That's a ton of supposition. MSU losing two and Auburn winning out is at least as likely as your hypothetical above. MSU tried to lose the only important game they've played with a target on their back- we just refused to win it (and neither the football gods nor the refs tried to change our minds). Plus UK isn't a terrible team, Lexington's a long way from Mootown and Arky- who's no joke, either- gets a tuneup game with UAB this weekend.

I'm good with my original stance.

Even assuming that MSU does lose two games and we win out, that doesn't mean Ole Miss losing helps us. All that means is that the Ole Miss - LSU game doesn't matter at all.

If we win out, Ole Miss cannot mathematically win the West. It is impossible. If we win out, the only two teams that could represent the West are Auburn, and MSU.

Assuming Auburn wins out, MSU wins the West if:

1) MSU also wins out

2) MSU finishes with 1-loss but win a 2-way tie breaker with AU.

Auburn wins the West if:

1) MSU drops 2 or more SEC games

2) Auburn, MSU, and Ole Miss all finish with 1 loss. Auburn wins the 3-way tie-breaker.

In none of those scenarios does an Ole Miss loss help Auburn. It can only hurt us. You claim it is a lot of supposition, but it would take far more unlikely things to happen for an Ole Miss loss to actually matter in a positive way for us. The only way it could possibly come into effect in a positive manner for Auburn would be if Auburn dropped another SEC game. However the chances of Auburn emerging from the West as a 2-loss champion are far less than the chances of a 3 way, 1-loss tie occurring.

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However the chances of Auburn emerging from the West as a 2-loss champion are far less than the chances of a 3 way, 1-loss tie occurring.

I disagree. But hey, that's why they play the games.

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did the head to head drop out of the tie breaker scenario with the CFP vs. BCS? Trying to see how SOS fits in if there is a 2 or 3-way tie.

A 2-way tie would always send the h2h winner. That is why MSU is our biggest threat, and Ole Miss is not a threat if we win out.

However, in a three way tie between AU, MSU, and Ole Miss, one would each have the h2h over the other: Auburn over Ole Miss, Ole Miss over MSU, MSU over Auburn. Therefor there would be no clear h2h winner. In fact the three teams would be tied for all of the tie breaker scenarios that follow that as well all the way to tie breaker "G" which is new for the SEC this year. That tie breaker has to do with the SEC records of the teams each team played from the East. We would win that tie breaker as Georgia and South Carolina would have a better combined record that Vandy and Kentucky (MSU) or Vandy and Tennessee (OM).

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