Spotlight on perhaps the biggest "key" for the Ole Miss game

[StatTiger 3,188]

Auburn's red zone performance this Saturday night just might be the biggest key of the game. Auburn obviously needs to be able to establish the run and protect the football but red zone offense and defense will likely dictate the outcome of the game against the Rebels. During Auburn's 5 games at home, the Tigers have scored 20 TD's from 22 red zone trips (91%). During their 2 road games, Auburn has scored 3 TD's from 9 trips to the red zone (33%). Basically the same average number of trips to the red zone playing at home and on the road but a huge difference in TD percentage. Overall Auburn is No. 9 nationally in red zone TD pct. They are No. 4 nationally playing at home and No. 119, playing on the road.

The play...

On this play Auburn has a 1st & goal from the Gamecock 8-yard line. Auburn shifts to a 2-back set before the snap to run their read-option with cross-buck action. At the snap Corey Grant will shoot to the left and Nick Marshall will fake the give to Cameron Artis-Payne to the right. The OLB plays the give to CAP, so Marshall keeps to sprint to his left. Once again the "spur" is faced with a 1 on 2 situation, with the slot-WR and Marshall coming to the edge.

Nick Marshall fakes the pass-look to the slot-WR to keep the Spur committed to the receiver. Marshall follows behind Corey Grant, darting to the inside for an 8-yard touchdown run. Through 7 games Auburn is No. 11 nationally in yards per rush (5.96) inside the red zone. It breaks down to No. 7 nationally at home, averaging 6.6 yards per rush and No. 57 nationally on the road with a 4.09 average inside the red zone.

The game likely comes down to Auburn's ability to run the football, protecting the football and red zone production. IMO, red zone production will be the biggest key because I believe Auburn will be able to run on the Rebels.

[hutchids 227]

I really like these articles (?). Keep them coming man

[cooltigger21 0]

This is good stuff. Really helps me understand the intricacies of the game.

[aujeff11 6,243]

Wow, at home, number 4 in the country in red zone touchdown percentage, and 119th in the country on the road. That says a lot.

[Auburn4Winners 0]

The only thing that really matters in this game is, have we hit our stride yet or not. If our D plays as bad as last week and our O plays as good, we win close again. If we see improvement on both sides, we win big. If our O struggles and D continues to struggle, we lose big. I personally think we win big and prove that we are back.

[Auctoritas 2,826]

That's such a bizarre split between home and away red zone TD percents. I am at a loss.

[Slammer1 409]

It is pretty clear to me. We are intimidated by a hostile environment That has to change if we want to progress this season..

[cooltigger21 0]

It is pretty clear to me. We are intimidated by a hostile environment That has to change if we want to progress this season..

That is a strange thing considering we had such a large number of experienced players coming back this year.

[HarpyTrain 1]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

[jmcrosson 203]

When properly executed, this play looks impossible to stop.

[Guest jojo1515]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

Not stat, but I have a little personal insight. LSU was able to run on OM. Our run game is much better than LSUs. Given that LSU has given somewhat of a blueprint on what works in th running game against OM, I expect Gus will be able to exploit their D. Also our run game hit full stride last week and I expect it will continue.

[au75 75]

We must have the run game this week to win.

[looney 794]

When properly executed, this play looks impossible to stop.

...and has additional option(s) if the Star/OLB bites on Marshall

[SumterAubie 3,031]

That's such a bizarre split between home and away red zone TD percents. I am at a loss.

Auburn's two away games have been against pretty fair teams.

[AUenginerd 16]

That's such a bizarre split between home and away red zone TD percents. I am at a loss.

Auburn's two away games have been against pretty fair teams.

I was about to say, we played #1 and #9 on the road. Both teams have good defenses, MSU especially in the red zone. At home, we've only played LSU as ranked and they may drop out again after the turds go to Death Valley next week. The level of defense we played on the road has more do with the parity than our guys being intimidated.

[AURealist 2,185]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

Not stat, but I have a little personal insight. LSU was able to run on OM. Our run game is much better than LSUs. Given that LSU has given somewhat of a blueprint on what works in th running game against OM, I expect Gus will be able to exploit their D. Also our run game hit full stride last week and I expect it will continue.

Auburn's inside running game is nowhere near as proficient as LSU's inside running game. You've seen all the 'wasted' plays we keep running into the center of the line for no-gain or a loss of a yard haven't you? Seems like it's every 4th play or so. That's Auburn's inside running game. It's a glaringly obvious Auburn O weakness. It's so bad that I cringe when we run those because I consider them nothing more than wasted opportunities to run something that might actually work. (This may just my perception. It would be interesting to know how successful those plays have actually been against the better defenses.)

Not surprisingly, the Ole Miss defense's greatest weakness is up its middle. I'm sure you now see how LSU was able to drive down the field pushing solely up the middle. Conversely, Auburn's strength, running off the ends plays directly against the strongest part of the Ole Miss D whose lateral pursuit is just incredible. Now you see why Auburn is picked to lose this game.

Of course, I'm just a fan and could be wrong.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

Not stat, but I have a little personal insight. LSU was able to run on OM. Our run game is much better than LSUs. Given that LSU has given somewhat of a blueprint on what works in th running game against OM, I expect Gus will be able to exploit their D. Also our run game hit full stride last week and I expect it will continue.

Auburn's inside running game is nowhere near as proficient as LSU's inside running game. You've seen all the 'wasted' plays we keep running into the center of the line for no-gain or a loss of a yard haven't you? Seems like it's every 4th play or so. That's Auburn's inside running game. It's a glaringly obvious Auburn O weakness. It's so bad that I cringe when we run those because I consider them nothing more than wasted opportunities to run something that might actually work. (This may just my perception. It would be interesting to know how successful those plays have actually been against the better defenses.)

Not surprisingly, the Ole Miss defense's greatest weakness is up its middle. I'm sure you now see how LSU was able to drive down the field pushing solely up the middle. Conversely, Auburn's strength, running off the ends plays directly against the strongest part of the Ole Miss D whose lateral pursuit is just incredible. Now you see why Auburn is picked to lose this game.

Of course, I'm just a fan and could be wrong.

Think that tells you we need to run up the middle this game, something we have obviously proved we like to do!

[AUsince72 11,084]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

Not stat, but I have a little personal insight. LSU was able to run on OM. Our run game is much better than LSUs. Given that LSU has given somewhat of a blueprint on what works in th running game against OM, I expect Gus will be able to exploit their D. Also our run game hit full stride last week and I expect it will continue.

Auburn's inside running game is nowhere near as proficient as LSU's inside running game. You've seen all the 'wasted' plays we keep running into the center of the line for no-gain or a loss of a yard haven't you? Seems like it's every 4th play or so. That's Auburn's inside running game. It's a glaringly obvious Auburn O weakness. It's so bad that I cringe when we run those because I consider them nothing more than wasted opportunities to run something that might actually work. (This may just my perception. It would be interesting to know how successful those plays have actually been against the better defenses.)

Not surprisingly, the Ole Miss defense's greatest weakness is up its middle. I'm sure you now see how LSU was able to drive down the field pushing solely up the middle. Conversely, Auburn's strength, running off the ends plays directly against the strongest part of the Ole Miss D whose lateral pursuit is just incredible. Now you see why Auburn is picked to lose this game.

Of course, I'm just a fan and could be wrong.

Think that tells you we need to run up the middle this game, something we have obviously proved we like to do!

USCe wasn't at their best with runs up the middle either and AU was able to take advantage of that. Plus, CAP seemed much more adept at busting a middle play outside if nothing was there. Maybe, just maybe, that tells us something going into tomorrow. Hopefully OM's Achilles Heel is ripe to be taken advantage of.

People like to throw out that another team (KSU for example) gave everybody else the blueprint for stopping AU...well, maybe LSU gave AU the blueprint for attacking OM.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

I do believe Ole Miss has a solid defense but it is important to look at the offenses they have faced thus far. LSU was the first team they faced that was run-heavy. The make up of the Alabama offense is different from what we are used to seeing. They pass to set up their run more so this year. The Rebel defense is primarily based on speed and the best way to neutralize this edge is to run straight at it. Consider the following....

In conference play only, Auburn is averaging 307 yards per game on the ground and the Rebels are allowing 119 yards per game. The Tigers have rushed for 97 percent more than their conference foe has allowed while the Rebel defense has held its conference opponents to 26 percent below their rushing average. This projects for Auburn to rush for 227-234 yards against the Rebels.

[lutzintheredzone 0]

remember a little smoke in mirrors,their d line lost 3 starters including Clowney and JJ Sturratt was playing hurt. Gotta see this work against an elite d line.

[hutchids 227]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

I do believe Ole Miss has a solid defense but it is important to look at the offenses they have faced thus far. LSU was the first team they faced that was run-heavy. The make up of the Alabama offense is different from what we are used to seeing. They pass to set up their run more so this year. The Rebel defense is primarily based on speed and the best way to neutralize this edge is to run straight at it. Consider the following....

In conference play only, Auburn is averaging 307 yards per game on the ground and the Rebels are allowing 119 yards per game. The Tigers have rushed for 97 percent more than their conference foe has allowed while the Rebel defense has held its conference opponents to 26 percent below their rushing average. This projects for Auburn to rush for 227-234 yards against the Rebels.

Stat tiger, what was that stat of our winning streak against ole miss when having 200 yard rushing performances? I saw you post it earlier. We had something like 10 straight wins on them while rushing for 200 yards. I'll see if I can find it

[AUFAN78 3,889]

That's such a bizarre split between home and away red zone TD percents. I am at a loss.

Can you say officiating? IDK

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

Lutz LSU says Hi. There is only one common opponent in which to measure and that is LSU. We did benefit by having them at home but we beat them 41-7 and they lost 10-7. We were a lot more successful against their defense than OM was, and the games were just a few weeks apart, so no major change in either team. Looking at OM's claim to fame uat was it and I still think with uat's performance against Arky and UT show they are not as good as advertised, The only thing that will beat us at OM is ourselves as we did at MSU with the early turn-overs and I am sure that Gus has addressed the problem. WDE

[SumterAubie 3,031]

A major difference in the LSU playing Auburn and the one playing OM is the starting LSU middle linebacker. Sophmore Kendall Beckwith. He didn't start against Auburn. A senior named Welter did. Welter is Hollandesque. Beckwith started and had 10 tackles against OM. His presence has much improved LSU's run defense

[AURealist 2,185]

Just curious stat, what makes you think we'll be able to run on the rebels? Personally, I think we will as well, but that is more fan-speak and believing that our running game is back to hitting its stride. But I'm curious if what technical reasons you have for your confidence in our running game. WDE.

Not stat, but I have a little personal insight. LSU was able to run on OM. Our run game is much better than LSUs. Given that LSU has given somewhat of a blueprint on what works in th running game against OM, I expect Gus will be able to exploit their D. Also our run game hit full stride last week and I expect it will continue.

Auburn's inside running game is nowhere near as proficient as LSU's inside running game. You've seen all the 'wasted' plays we keep running into the center of the line for no-gain or a loss of a yard haven't you? Seems like it's every 4th play or so. That's Auburn's inside running game. It's a glaringly obvious Auburn O weakness. It's so bad that I cringe when we run those because I consider them nothing more than wasted opportunities to run something that might actually work. (This may just my perception. It would be interesting to know how successful those plays have actually been against the better defenses.)

Not surprisingly, the Ole Miss defense's greatest weakness is up its middle. I'm sure you now see how LSU was able to drive down the field pushing solely up the middle. Conversely, Auburn's strength, running off the ends plays directly against the strongest part of the Ole Miss D whose lateral pursuit is just incredible. Now you see why Auburn is picked to lose this game.

Of course, I'm just a fan and could be wrong.

Think that tells you we need to run up the middle this game, something we have obviously proved we like to do!

USCe wasn't at their best with runs up the middle either and AU was able to take advantage of that. Plus, CAP seemed much more adept at busting a middle play outside if nothing was there. Maybe, just maybe, that tells us something going into tomorrow. Hopefully OM's Achilles Heel is ripe to be taken advantage of.

People like to throw out that another team (KSU for example) gave everybody else the blueprint for stopping AU...well, maybe LSU gave AU the blueprint for attacking OM.

Ole Miss' defensive line is above average overall with an average strength middle. LSU's offensive middle is very strong and they were able to take advantage. We have not been very successful up the middle this year against average defensive lines (but not for not trying and trying and trying...). I think this is a frustration to Malzahn and this weakness is limiting the release of the true power of CGM's offensive deathstar. Well, that and Marshall's overthrows...

Your plan for the bounce outside is exactly what Ole Miss would like to see. That's where their power is and they can stop it. Getting through the middle is key for Auburn, so much so I'd like to see Marshall take some snaps under center to make whatever hole might be there available to CAP before it closes up, getting him into the secondary and eventually forcing a defensive bias away from the edges.

Or... I could be wrong.