StatTiger 3,188 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Last night was a clear example of a team that has lost its focus primarily because of how the season has played out. It is much easier to dig down deep physically and mentally, when you have major goals to play for like 2013. This isn't the case this late into the 2014 season and it shows. This is not an excuse for the poor performance last night but this clearly isn't a motivated "team". There are some players who continue to play hard but not enough to make the difference. When Gus Malzahn arrived after the 2012 season, his biggest challenge would be teaching the players how to win again. The challenge now for the coaching staff is demanding the players to play hard all the time, no matter the opponent and record. The second challenge is more difficult than the first. Speaking of players who have not mailed in their performance. Cameron Artis-Payne is a baller and brings his lunchbox to every game. He is not a thriller or speedster but he is a player you want to go to battle with. He ran hard last night just as he has against better competition. Through 11-games, his totals are the 6th best rushing performance by an Auburn player based on yards per game, yards per rush and TD ratio. He has been Auburn's most consistent offensive player this season. What has happened to Corey Grant? His first 20 carries of the season (1st 2 games) produced 14 runs of 5-yards, 7 of 10-yards or more and 3 of 15 yards or more. He was never tackled for a loss and had only 4 carries of 2-yards or less.The remainder of the season he has only 31 carries. Of those 31 attempts, 13 went for 5+, 5 for 10+ and only 2 for 15+. Of his last 31 carries, 14 have gone for 2-yards or less and 6 went for a loss. I believe this is why we have seen less of him running the football. This is also why we have seen more of Ricardo Louis and Quan Bray on the perimeter runs. During the first 9 games of the season, 46.4% of Auburn's offensive snaps resulted in at least 5-yards. During the past 2 games, it has dipped down to 41.7%. Gus Malzahn's offense is built around success on first down. The HUNH aspect doesn't come into play until the first 1st down is made during a possession. Last season through 11 games, 29% of Auburn's first down plays netted 2-yards or less. This season it is 40% through 11 games. Who are the impact players on offense this season? CAP (22), Duke Williams (19), Nick Marshall (18), Sammie Coates (10) and Quan Bray (8). Last year through 11 games it was Marshall (21), Tre Mason (14), Sammie Coates (13), Corey Grant (13) and CAP (10). Last season through 11 games the Auburn offense scored 11 touchdowns on 17 possessions (64.7%) beginning on the opponent's side of the field. This season it is only 6 from 16 possessions (37.5%). In terms of the weekly "report card " features, this is how this year's team compares to last year's through 11 games. 2014 offense (74.5%) slightly up from 73.2% in 2013. This year's defense (52.7%) slightly down from last year's 55.5%. This year's special teams (55.4%) significantly down from last year's 71.4%. In terms of recent trends, the offense has a report card percentage of 55.6% during the last 3 games. The defense is 42.2% and special teams is 50.0%. Last season the Auburn run-offense converted 86.0% of their short-yardage situations of 2-yards or less to convert. This season it is down to 78.4%. During the first 7 games of the season Auburn averaged 10.7 PPG from their opponent's turnovers, while allowing the opponent to score 4.0 PPG from Auburn's turnovers. During the last 4 games, Auburn has scored zero points from their forced turnovers, while allowing 5.2 PPG from their miscues. That is basically an 11-point swing per game. In terms of penalty yardage per game, Auburn is currently No. 114 nationally compared to No. 30 last year. Auburn has surrendered 31 first downs on penalties alone or 2.8 per game. From 2004-2013, Auburn allowed an average of 21 per season or 1.6 per game. The 2013 and 2014 offense both produced 106 impact plays through 11 games. The difference is the 2013 offense had a combined 67 turnovers and penalties, while the 2014 offense has 93, offsetting their offensive production. During the first 5 games of the season the Auburn offense went "3 & out" only 16.1% of the time, while the defense forced a "3 & out", 45.0% of the time. During the last 6 games the offense is hitting at 23.2% and the defense has fallen to 20.0%. As any football season progress teams either improve or regress. Last season's team progressed as the season moved forward and this year's team has retreated. There are many valid reasons for the lack of production. Talent, depth, coaching, preparation, strength of schedule and senior leadership. After the Iron Bowl and headed into bowl preparation, the coaching staff needs to seriously look at themselves as well as the players coming back next season. It will be interesting to see just how much fight this team has left for the Iron Bowl and how the coaching staff schemes to give their players the best opportunity to compete. War Eagle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It seems Corey just hasn't had the same perimeter blocking when he comes in vs the other backs/receivers And it kind of seems that once CAP solidified the starting job, Corey's just whispered away, maybe that's not trying the same, maybe its just a coincidence, but its definitely unfortunate to waste such a guy on his final year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cooltigger21 0 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Always look forward to this. I have to think this team will come out motivated to play next week but then I thought that against UGA. Bowl prep has to be a mini spring practice and then the offseason has to bring every job up for grabs. Nobody is safe in their spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU64 10,122 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks for the analysis....and who would have thought we would see Nick Marshall with less than 10 rushing yards against anybody...much less Samford? Can this team find its spirit in 6 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigermac 11 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It seems Corey just hasn't had the same perimeter blocking when he comes in vs the other backs/receivers And it kind of seems that once CAP solidified the starting job, Corey's just whispered away, maybe that's not trying the same, maybe its just a coincidence, but its definitely unfortunate to waste such a guy on his final year. I don't think any of our players block less for Corey than they do Ricardo/Bray on the outside runs. The main thing I see is that the defense is more aware that he is in specifically to run the sweep and also his complete unwillingness to turn the ball upfield when it's clear that getting to the edge isn't going to happen. When you play SEC teams, running the ball east/west becomes increasingly more difficult. Ricardo is a much more physical runner than Corey in that aspect, which is why he has taken over that role as the season has progressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,360 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 "There may come a day when the Heart of Auburn may fail. But it is Not This Day!" Beat Bama! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUinfusion 390 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's seems to me that neither Grant nor R. Louis will cut up field for any reason what so ever. Grant would pick up more yards if he would occasionally cut it up earlier instead of trying to outrun everyone to the relative safety of the sideline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerTennis80 343 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Stat, your analysis brings home what most of us couldn't miss noticing, which is that this year, unlike last year, we did not "get better every week." How well I remember Gus repeating that phrase like a mantra last year. But not this year. I'd love to ask him if he's not repeated it this year because it obviously isn't happening, or if it isn't happening because the coaches & team forgot to remind themselves of the importance of getting better every week. I'd love to know his thoughts about this team's failure to improve. Thanks for your analysis, as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aubaseball 2,583 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am hoping as much as the next person that Auburn comes out and plays its best this coming weekend. However, i do not think the leadership is there to make this happen. The quarterback has to be the leader of the team both on the field and off. Nick is not that kind of guy. He has done a lot for AU football but AU needs a leader playing the QB position, hopefully we will find one next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CR 2,427 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Great insight Stat. So, 40% of AU's 1st down plays have netted 2 yds or less so far this season. Any idea how many of our 1st down plays have been CAP plowing straight into a stacked line? Seems Gus runs that 75% of the time at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cooltigger21 0 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Great insight Stat. So, 40% of AU's 1st down plays have netted 2 yds or less so far this season. Any idea how many of our 1st down plays have been CAP plowing straight into a stacked line? Seems Gus runs that 75% of the time at least. I think a lot of that was CAP not setting up his blocks or bouncing it outside as much as anything else. It's a read play or at least the back has the ability to go where the opening is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Great insight Stat. So, 40% of AU's 1st down plays have netted 2 yds or less so far this season. Any idea how many of our 1st down plays have been CAP plowing straight into a stacked line? Seems Gus runs that 75% of the time at least. Might seem that way but its not even that close. 368 first down snaps with 288 being on the ground (78.3%). CAP has 158 carries on 1st down so 42.9% of the first down plays this season has been CAP running the ball and even those carries are not always straight up the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proud Tiger 4,261 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The HUHH is based on getting at least 4 yards on 1st down. As noted we haven't been getting that and hence we almost always end up with 3rd down and it's hard to sustain a drive when you have to make all your 3rd downs. Our offense has gone from HUNH to TAL (third and long). Even when it's third and short we have trouble making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU64 10,122 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Cool: I think a lot of that was CAP not setting up his blocks or bouncing it outside as much as anything else. It's a read play or at least the back has the ability to go where the opening is. There is supposed to be a hole there....bouncing outside is what you do when there is no hole....and when "bouncing" about half the time a DB or LB is going to be there an make a stop. I'm not blaming CAP because 11 defenders and 87,000 people in the stands know what the play call is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagle Eye 7 2,535 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks for the info Stat. It is always great to look closely at the numbers. I agree with tigermac, in that Corey being a threat adds to the rest of the offense working because they key him. I think one thing all our opponents are guarding the outside this year, so Corey and Nick get less. RL and QB are more disguised so that's why their greater success JMO. WDE. BEAT bama !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cooltigger21 0 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Cool: I think a lot of that was CAP not setting up his blocks or bouncing it outside as much as anything else. It's a read play or at least the back has the ability to go where the opening is. There is supposed to be a hole there....bouncing outside is what you do when there is no hole....and when "bouncing" about half the time a DB or LB is going to be there an make a stop. I'm not blaming CAP because 11 defenders and 87,000 people in the stands know what the play call is. It's not all on CAP to be sure but there were some holes there that he didn't hit because he was dancing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cole256 17,039 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 CAP may have some problems here and there but dancing around isn't one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 CAP may have some problems here and there but dancing around isn't one of them sure he does....its like his mythical fumbling issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FormerlySec38Row34 56 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 One thing I have noticed is that Nick has seemed hesitant to take off after a scramble. It looks like the coaches have gotten him to look for the late pass instead of running. There have been several times that he has had a wide open field in front of him and has elected to throw the ball. Sometimes it has worked well, but there have been several occaisions where it has cost us a first down, due to either an errant throw or a dropped ball. Am I seeing things? Has anyone else noticed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cooltigger21 0 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 CAP may have some problems here and there but dancing around isn't one of them Not dancing but he was hesitant at times. There were some holes that were open, briefly to be sure, but they were there long enough to get through. It wasn't every play . I don't know the percentages of how it broke down between the O line not opening a hole at all to him not hitting it when it was there. After the K State game it seemed he started hitting the holes quicker and harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
war eagle6 0 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yes, you are not alone in this assumption. I've never seen a team with so much upside decline and fall at the end of the season. It's like a monkey with a secret that will harm anyone who tells. I'm convinced there's a storyline behind our fast decline in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SumterAubie 3,031 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And speaking of Grant and defenses realizing he would sweep with the ball. Before the season started I thought at some point he would get the ball from NM than hand if off on a reverse to Bray going by other direction. Oh well. I know ultimately it's blocking on offense that generates success but I don't remember many plays where we tried to fool them. OR plays setting up a different play later in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexava 6,973 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 One thing I have noticed is that Nick has seemed hesitant to take off after a scramble. It looks like the coaches have gotten him to look for the late pass instead of running. There have been several times that he has had a wide open field in front of him and has elected to throw the ball. Sometimes it has worked well, but there have been several occaisions where it has cost us a first down, due to either an errant throw or a dropped ball. Am I seeing things? Has anyone else noticed this. absolutely. Even if he is going to throw he should roll out. That pocket can't last 10 seconds not even vs Sa ford. He does not possess that inner clock that tells him to go. His best asset is his feet. He don't use them in the passing game to our advantage . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jojo1515 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thanks for the analysis....and who would have thought we would see Nick Marshall with less than 10 rushing yards against anybody...much less Samford? Can this team find its spirit in 6 days? The stat that stands out to you is Marshalls rushing numbers when he barely attempted to run the entire game?? Not surprising lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuburnSpider 2 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Excellent synopsis of this years edition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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