The high and low effect

[StatTiger 3,188]

Over the years I have noticed a trend in many of the Auburn seasons that were special. Most of them were followed up by average or slightly above average seasons. Now there are numerous factors involved such as the loss of key starters, the loss of a large senior class or a quality senior class.

A noticeable trend I picked up on was the number of close ball games during the special season. If there were at least 5 close games during the special season, the odds of a major fall off the following year increased. Check out the numbers...

1972 (10-1) The Tigers were 5-0 in games decided by 7-points that year. They went 6-6 the next year.

1983 (11-1) The Tigers were 5-0 in close games and went 9-4 the following year.

1997 (10-3) The Tigers were 4-1 in close games and went 3-8 the following year.

2006 (11-2) The Tigers were 5-0 in close games and went 9-4 the following year.

2010 (14-0) The Tigers were 6-0 in close games and went 8-5 the following year.

2013 (12-2) The Tigers were 5-1 in close games and are currently 8-3 this year.

Of the six teams listed above, 4 of them lost their starting quarterback the following year. The above teams competed in 77 games with 32 being decided by 7-points or less (41.5%). The Tigers were 30-2 during the close games. The follow up teams combined for a record of 43-30 (.589).

Now look at other 10-win seasons that did not involve as many close games...

1986 (10-2) 1-2 in close games and went 9-1-2 the following year.

1987 (9-1-2) 0-0-2 in close games and went 10-2 the following year.

1988 (10-2) 1-2 in close games and went 10-2 the following year.

1989 (10-2) 2-1 in close games and went 8-3-1 the following year.

1993 (11-0) 3-0 in close games and went 9-1-1 the following year.

2004 (13-0) 2-0 in close games and went 9-3 the following year.

Only 16 close games combined out of 72 (22.2%) followed by a better follow up season. The follow up teams combined for a record of 55-12-4 (.803). As great as the 2010 and 2013 seasons were, these teams were not "complete" teams like the 2004 squad. The 2004 team was solid in every phase of the game, which cannot be said about 2010 and 2013. The 2010 and 2013 teams were talented enough to get by in many close games but paid the price the following seasons with the loss of several key starters.

The 2004 team was more soundly built, which prevented them from being involved in too many close games. The carry over from this sound structure, gave them a better chance of competing the following year. There were personnel losses to overcome like any other year but the nucleus was present for the 2005 squad to be competitive. We witnessed this same process more extensively under Pat Dye. His run from 1982-1989 was an indicator of a sound program than a few isolated special seasons.

I touched on this after the 2013 season was completed. Gus Malzahn and his staff did a great job of putting together a team that was very competitive but this isn't the same as building a competitive program. The 2013 team had enough key contributors across the board to allow them to be competitive that year. Take some of those contributors away the following year and what happens? Did Auburn find someone to replace Greg Robinson, Dee Ford, Tre Mason, Chris Davis and Jay Prosch? Cameron Artis-Payne was the closest. What about the kickers from 2013? Special teams really went south in 2014, which had something to do with the kicker and punter. To his credit, Daniel Carlson has been solid this season but punting has been a different story.

Add to the mix, the loss of Carl Lawson and Alex Kozan before the 2014 season started and Auburn was facing key personnel obstacles. Building a program that allows you to replace actual "star" talent on the field and not just on recruiting paper is two different things. This takes more time, which is why we as fans should be patient in this regard. The 2013 team had enough front-line players to compete with anyone but the depth and supporting cast was a different story, which we can clearly see in 2014. I'm not advocating that Gus Malzahn has what it takes to build a sound "program" but in fairness, it is way too early to say that he cannot. After Pat Dye went 11-1 in 1983, he followed up with two 4-loss seasons, before he went on his 1986-1989 run. Malzahn deserves the same opportunity to build his program.

[Ber798297 241]

Thanks Stat... As always you never disappoint. I have faith in Gus that he will build a great program here at Auburn. I agree that the Auburn family need to be patient and give him time to do it. I think if we had not exceeded expectations last year, there would not be as much as the disappointment rumblings you hear amongst our fans. We are still a great team with the best fans. Let's be patient and let Gus get it done!! WDE

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks Stat... As always you never disappoint. I have faith in Gus that he will build a great program here at Auburn. I agree that the Auburn family need to be patient and give him time to do it. I think if we had not exceeded expectations last year, there would not be as much as the disappointment rumblings you hear amongst our fans. We are still a great team with the best fans. Let's be patient and let Gus get it done!! WDE

Not so sure about this....JMO but it's how we have lost these games this year and the trend of the team's performance that has caused the rumbling.

As noted in yesterday's TET piece...."An 8-4 finish may not look horrible on paper, but if you live it, you see things differently."

[cooltigger21 0]

The loss of Grob, Kozan and Prosch contributed a lot to it. Other injuries played a role as well. In 2013, Auburn could impose it's will on everyone. We passed when we wanted to most of the time instead of being forced into it. The offense this year has put up excellent numbers but they can't impose their will on other teams. Maybe some of us (I put myself in this category) read too much into what happened last year. I just don't understand all the penalties. That is the most aggravating part of this whole season. Next year is going to be interesting. This offseason is going to be interesting, even if no changes are made in the staff. I want to see how the staff and the players react to this.

[weagl1 1,781]

If you look at the great SEC teams over the years what you most often see is a dominate DL. One could say that we owe the 2010 championship to Cam but I would say Fairley, Blanc, and then other guys up front on the DL were just as important to the success that year. They shut down Bammer in the second half, they shut down Oregon in the championship game and they always seemed to make key stops late in games. All of the great Bammer teams since Saban has been there and all of the great LSU teams under both Saban and Miles and all of the great Auburn teams under Dye always seem to have one thing in common, a dominate DL. And that is what causes me concern with the direction we seem to be headed. We had a bunch of seniors on the DL this year and what did we get? A big bunch of nothing. No push, no pressure, no meanness, nobody stepping up, just out there wallowing around. Adams and Lawson are the only guys we have that would have a chance to play for Bammer or LSU and Lawson was out for the season. And now what do we have on the horizon? We get Lawson back, Adams is back, maybe a couple of the guys we recruited last year step up but we are thin, thin, thin up front on the DL and it does not seem to be a recruiting priority. If Gus wants to be successful year in and year out in this league the recruiting and development of great defensive linemen is going to have to become more of a priority.

[oracle79 3,569]

That's a great rundown of Auburn historical trends and makes a lot of sense. I'd agree you have to give Gus and his guys time to get their recruits in and see what they can build after 4 or 5 seasons.

BUT, you have to do something with special teams. Fountain was an afterthought once Bisaccia left for the Cowboys. Last year we had Parkey putting everything out of the endzone and Clark had a great season punting. And of course, the kick six so you can't really get rid of a guy after that (even though he just basically fell into that talent and didn't screw it up). But I'd say special teams cost us a championship against FSU with the fake punt and the KO return for TD and whatever back issues Parkey may or may not have had (missed FG and not kicking out of the endzone). Other than that coaching position (and TE's haven't really done a thing this year), let's see what they can do.

[cooltigger21 0]

If you look at the great SEC teams over the years what you most often see is a dominate DL. One could say that we owe the 2010 championship to Cam but I would say Fairley, Blanc, and then other guys up front on the DL were just as important to the success that year. They shut down Bammer in the second half, they shut down Oregon in the championship game and they always seemed to make key stops late in games. All of the great Bammer teams since Saban has been there and all of the great LSU teams under both Saban and Miles and all of the great Auburn teams under Dye always seem to have one thing in common, a dominate DL. And that is what causes me concern with the direction we seem to be headed. We had a bunch of seniors on the DL this year and what did we get? A big bunch of nothing. No push, no pressure, no meanness, nobody stepping up, just out there wallowing around. Adams and Lawson are the only guys we have that would have a chance to play for Bammer or LSU and Lawson was out for the season. And now what do we have on the horizon? We get Lawson back, Adams is back, maybe a couple of the guys we recruited last year step up but we are thin, thin, thin up front on the DL and it does not seem to be a recruiting priority. If Gus wants to be successful year in and year out in this league the recruiting and development of great defensive linemen is going to have to become more of a priority.

Auburn does have some very good DL prospects on their radar for this year, Now whether they can land these guys is another story.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

If you look at the great SEC teams over the years what you most often see is a dominate DL. One could say that we owe the 2010 championship to Cam but I would say Fairley, Blanc, and then other guys up front on the DL were just as important to the success that year. They shut down Bammer in the second half, they shut down Oregon in the championship game and they always seemed to make key stops late in games. All of the great Bammer teams since Saban has been there and all of the great LSU teams under both Saban and Miles and all of the great Auburn teams under Dye always seem to have one thing in common, a dominate DL. And that is what causes me concern with the direction we seem to be headed. We had a bunch of seniors on the DL this year and what did we get? A big bunch of nothing. No push, no pressure, no meanness, nobody stepping up, just out there wallowing around. Adams and Lawson are the only guys we have that would have a chance to play for Bammer or LSU and Lawson was out for the season. And now what do we have on the horizon? We get Lawson back, Adams is back, maybe a couple of the guys we recruited last year step up but we are thin, thin, thin up front on the DL and it does not seem to be a recruiting priority. If Gus wants to be successful year in and year out in this league the recruiting and development of great defensive linemen is going to have to become more of a priority.

Auburn does have some very good DL prospects on their radar for this year, Now whether they can land these guys is another story.

based on how defensive recruiting has gone, I highly doubt it.

[AUpreacherman22 3,876]

Brilliant stuff Stat!

[AuburnSpider 2]

Great evaluation! While I'm still dissapointed in our overall play and play calling this does make me feel better. Afraid we still need to make a few changes.

[Dixie1860 27]

based on how defensive recruiting has gone, I highly doubt it.

2013: 5*- Adams, Lawson, Daniel 4*- Toney, Bradley 3*- Toney, Harding have played

2014: 5*- Williams 4*- Ruffin, Thornton, Bessent, Roberts, Russell, Lambert, Williams, Moncrief, Davis, Lawrence 3*- Kennion (played as FR) Boston (Staff high on him)

2015: 4*- Williams, Colbert, McBryde, Johnson, Atkinson, Sullivan 3*- Westry (He didn't get his AU/UF offers by mistake. Learning the game, but his ceiling may be as high as anyone's. Niebuhr @ 247 listed him as one of 4-5 2015 kids who he believes contribute early in some capacity. I happen to agree.)

We have many highly ranked DL with whom we are among their finalists. We missed on a couple early it appears, however NSD is still several weeks away. And since it's obvious you don't really know a damn thing about our D recruiting, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Garner is one of the better closers in College Football. And he does very well with wavering/undecided prospects coming down the stretch.

[Auburn4life 24]

great post STAT. The injuries before the season started and during the year have hurt Auburn a lot. Lets also not throw Gus under the bus next year. Auburn losses a lot of talent, so next year Auburn may have 4 losses, but as long as they show improvement all season long I think fans will be happy.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Great evaluation! While I'm still dissapointed in our overall play and play calling this does make me feel better. Afraid we still need to make a few changes.

I don't believe the coaching staff obtained the most of what they had to work with this season. Even after last year, being 13 seconds away from winning the BCS, I did not believe the program was back in terms of being a yearly elite program. There were and remains some holes to be filled and hopefully Malzahn will be able to reach those goals. My biggest fear is that this team's "will" to compete might have been shattered after the TAMU loss. It would be nice if the seniors in this class demanded the best from everyone for the Iron Bowl during a "team" meeting.

[AuburnSpider 2]

Props

[CJBas 4]

Thanks Stat. I haven't done the research but would imagine what you say about Auburn would equally apply to almost any team

I think a lesser coach than Malzahn wouldn't have come up with as good a team as Auburn had last year. Not an NC contender. And I don't hear anyone saying that we should be even considering getting rid of Coach Malzahn based on anything we're seeing this year or expecting next year. That would be foolish. He is only in his 3rd year as a head coach and, frankly, still has a lot to learn. I'm quite content to be patient with him learning it at Auburn so long as he'll stick with us.

I think what people find distressing about this year's team is that they seem to have gotten worse as the last half of the season progressed. I know the competition got tougher but that doesn't explain many of the things we've seen. Seeing secondary players out of position has made them look slower than they probably are. That's likely due to poor position coaching. but when those same players, out of frustration, hit the receiver after the play is over, costing their team another 15 yards, that is a matter of lack of discipline. And we hate seeing that...repeatedly.

Execution on offense which seemed accurate early in the season seems to have become less so lately instead of becoming more accurate. And many of us don't understand this. And finally last Sat it did look like the team didn't care at all against Samford.

We understand the need to time and patience in building a program after our demise in '11 and '12. But what we've seen the last several weeks is puzzling to many of us and has us wondering if something isn't wrong underlying things. Not something that Coach Malzahn can't fix, just something wrong.

I know there are those who say that to mention such a subject on a public forum, where players and coaches can read it, will damage their morale. But let's be honest, if something is wrong, they know it far better than we do already.

[Randman5000 4,224]

based on how defensive recruiting has gone, I highly doubt it.

2013: 5*- Adams, Lawson, Daniel 4*- Toney, Bradley 3*- Toney, Harding have played

2014: 5*- Williams 4*- Ruffin, Thornton, Bessent, Roberts, Russell, Lambert, Williams, Moncrief, Davis, Lawrence 3*- Kennion (played as FR) Boston (Staff high on him)

2015: 4*- Williams, Colbert, McBryde, Johnson, Atkinson, Sullivan 3*- Westry (He didn't get his AU/UF offers by mistake. Learning the game, but his ceiling may be as high as anyone's. Niebuhr @ 247 listed him as one of 4-5 2015 kids who he believes contribute early in some capacity. I happen to agree.)

We have many highly ranked DL with whom we are among their finalists. We missed on a couple early it appears, however NSD is still several weeks away. And since it's obvious you don't really know a damn thing about our D recruiting, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Garner is one of the better closers in College Football. And he does very well with wavering/undecided prospects coming down the stretch.

It's pretty obvious when someone doesn't know anything about recruiting. Hopefully we will close strong again this year

[PowerOfDixieland 3,225]

based on how defensive recruiting has gone, I highly doubt it.

2013: 5*- Adams, Lawson, Daniel 4*- Toney, Bradley 3*- Toney, Harding have played

2014: 5*- Williams 4*- Ruffin, Thornton, Bessent, Roberts, Russell, Lambert, Williams, Moncrief, Davis, Lawrence 3*- Kennion (played as FR) Boston (Staff high on him)

2015: 4*- Williams, Colbert, McBryde, Johnson, Atkinson, Sullivan 3*- Westry (He didn't get his AU/UF offers by mistake. Learning the game, but his ceiling may be as high as anyone's. Niebuhr @ 247 listed him as one of 4-5 2015 kids who he believes contribute early in some capacity. I happen to agree.)

We have many highly ranked DL with whom we are among their finalists. We missed on a couple early it appears, however NSD is still several weeks away. And since it's obvious you don't really know a damn thing about our D recruiting, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Garner is one of the better closers in College Football. And he does very well with wavering/undecided prospects coming down the stretch.

I am in violent agreement with this 100% of this post.

[hutchids 227]

Over the years I have noticed a trend in many of the Auburn seasons that were special. Most of them were followed up by average or slightly above average seasons. Now there are numerous factors involved such as the loss of key starters, the loss of a large senior class or a quality senior class.

A noticeable trend I picked up on was the number of close ball games during the special season. If there were at least 5 close games during the special season, the odds of a major fall off the following year increased. Check out the numbers...

1972 (10-1) The Tigers were 5-0 in games decided by 7-points that year. They went 6-6 the next year.

1983 (11-1) The Tigers were 5-0 in close games and went 9-4 the following year.

1997 (10-3) The Tigers were 4-1 in close games and went 3-8 the following year.

2006 (11-2) The Tigers were 5-0 in close games and went 9-4 the following year.

2010 (14-0) The Tigers were 6-0 in close games and went 8-5 the following year.

2013 (12-2) The Tigers were 5-1 in close games and are currently 8-3 this year.

Of the six teams listed above, 4 of them lost their starting quarterback the following year. The above teams competed in 77 games with 32 being decided by 7-points or less (41.5%). The Tigers were 30-2 during the close games. The follow up teams combined for a record of 43-30 (.589).

Now look at other 10-win seasons that did not involve as many close games...

1986 (10-2) 1-2 in close games and went 9-1-2 the following year.

1987 (9-1-2) 0-0-2 in close games and went 10-2 the following year.

1988 (10-2) 1-2 in close games and went 10-2 the following year.

1989 (10-2) 2-1 in close games and went 8-3-1 the following year.

1993 (11-0) 3-0 in close games and went 9-1-1 the following year.

2004 (13-0) 2-0 in close games and went 9-3 the following year.

Only 16 close games combined out of 72 (22.2%) followed by a better follow up season. The follow up teams combined for a record of 55-12-4 (.803). As great as the 2010 and 2013 seasons were, these teams were not "complete" teams like the 2004 squad. The 2004 team was solid in every phase of the game, which cannot be said about 2010 and 2013. The 2010 and 2013 teams were talented enough to get by in many close games but paid the price the following seasons with the loss of several key starters.

The 2004 team was more soundly built, which prevented them from being involved in too many close games. The carry over from this sound structure, gave them a better chance of competing the following year. There were personnel losses to overcome like any other year but the nucleus was present for the 2005 squad to be competitive. We witnessed this same process more extensively under Pat Dye. His run from 1982-1989 was an indicator of a sound program than a few isolated special seasons.

I touched on this after the 2013 season was completed. Gus Malzahn and his staff did a great job of putting together a team that was very competitive but this isn't the same as building a competitive program. The 2013 team had enough key contributors across the board to allow them to be competitive that year. Take some of those contributors away the following year and what happens? Did Auburn find someone to replace Greg Robinson, Dee Ford, Tre Mason, Chris Davis and Jay Prosch? Cameron Artis-Payne was the closest. What about the kickers from 2013? Special teams really went south in 2014, which had something to do with the kicker and punter. To his credit, Daniel Carlson has been solid this season but punting has been a different story.

Add to the mix, the loss of Carl Lawson and Alex Kozan before the 2014 season started and Auburn was facing key personnel obstacles. Building a program that allows you to replace actual "star" talent on the field and not just on recruiting paper is two different things. This takes more time, which is why we as fans should be patient in this regard. The 2013 team had enough front-line players to compete with anyone but the depth and supporting cast was a different story, which we can clearly see in 2014. I'm not advocating that Gus Malzahn has what it takes to build a sound "program" but in fairness, it is way too early to say that he cannot. After Pat Dye went 11-1 in 1983, he followed up with two 4-loss seasons, before he went on his 1986-1989 run. Malzahn deserves the same opportunity to build his program.

Great info man! Thanks for taking the time to get the numbers.

[Tiger 8,818]

We have been on a 3 year plan since the program had a meltdown in 2012. That 3-9 season wasn't just a 1 year thing, there were many things in the previous years that led up to the disaster. We were extremely fortunate last year (a few plays away from having a 4 loss regular season) but it seems like we are on schedule. If recruiting closes out strong this year, I think Auburn will be in the playoffs in at least one of the upcoming 2 seasons. Remember we are essentially working with a band-aid/temporary fix guy with NM as QB so we wouldn't have to start a true freshman. It just so happened that our bridge QB blew everyone's expectations out of the water last year. But I think Gus is ready to move on from basically a shotgun version of Georgia Tech's offense and use a QB who doesn't limit the offense so much. We just don't have championship personnel to go with NM's skill set this year.

[catch8185 4]

I have to somewhat disagree with you. I think Nick was exactly what Gus was looking for when he signed him up. Now, I will agree somewhat that he blew some of the expectations out of the water. But I totally disagree that he was a band-aid quarterback. I think he has largely been the reason why we've had as much success under Malzahn as we've had. And all this about him not being a very good passer, I personally think that's garbage. While he is not on target every time, he has delivered the ball time and time again in the right spot in crucial situations. Even against Georgia, when the game was still in doubt, he threw two perfect balls to Coates and Louis, and what happened? They dropped them. Remember the Uzomah pass to beat Miss. St. last year?? I do. I was there. It was clutch. His running ability and his decent throwing ability has helped given us a chance to win every game up until this point. And except for some bone-headed fumbles late in the game against Texas A & M, he's played pretty darn well. The defense let us down in the Championship game (6 yd. pass turns into a 50 yd. gain), and has let us down immensely this year at times too.

[war eagle6 0]

That game was hard to swallow because when mason scored late I KNEW it was too much time left on the clock for fsu, because I had NO faith that our dcoordinator could stop them. And I was along with other fans in the sports bar, was CORRECT