Anatomy of an Auburn Championship Team

[StatTiger 3,188]

Looking back at Auburn's last three championship football teams (2004, 2010 and 2013), there are numerous key elements of an anatomy of a championship season. Reflecting back on these common denominators, provides substance regarding Auburn's potential and projections for 2015. Will the 2015 Auburn Tigers possess the key components to make a run for a championship?

Quarterback:

The 2004 Auburn offense was led by Jason Campbell, who finished the season as the No. 3 rated passer in the country. Cam Newton directed the 2010 Auburn offense as the No. 2 rated quarterback in the country. Nick Marshall was one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the country during 2013, but his pass-efficiency ranking was only No. 33. In conference play, Campbell averaged 228.3 yards per game in total offense while scoring 17 touchdowns. Cam Newton averaged an amazing 310.6 yards per game against SEC competition, totaling 34 offensive touchdowns. Nick Marshall averaged 263.7 yards per conference games, scoring a total of 20 offensive touchdowns.

Projection: Look for Jeremy Johnson to be a top-15 passer in the nation in terms of efficiency and the field general of a very explosive offense. He will surrounded by a solid offensive line and great skill players. He has two years vested in Malzahn's offense and won't require a "break-in" period like Cam Newton needed during 2010. I would not be surprised to see Johnson crack the nation's top-5.

Running back and Run-Offense:

All three previous Auburn championship teams possessed a 1000-yard rusher at the running back position. Carnell Williams in 2004, Michael Dyer in 2010 and Tre Mason in 2013. The 2004 Auburn run-offense was No. 29 nationally, No. 5 in 2010 and No. 1 in 2013. Auburn's ability to be balanced on offense during all three seasons, kept defenses on their heels. Over the past 15 seasons, only 13 teams from the Southeastern Conference finished the season ranked in the nation's top-25 in rushing and top-25 in pass-efficiency. On an average, only 7-8 teams at the FBS level have accomplished this statistical feat from 2000-2014. The 2010 and 2013 teams made the list, and the 2004 Auburn offense barely missed the cut. Auburn was No. 29 in rushing during the undefeated 2004 season. Six of Gus Malzahn's nine collegiate offenses accomplished the feat.

Projection: Barring injury, look for Auburn to have once again another 1000-yard rusher in 2015. It will be interesting to see which Auburn running back separates himself from the others to receive the majority of carries. It will likely be a "committee" approach early on but I expect one to eventually rise above the others. Jovon Robinson, Roc Thomas, and Peyton Barber give Auburn plenty of options and potential for another strong running game. Malzahn has fielded a 1000-yard rusher at the running back position in all nine seasons at the collegiate level. I also expect Auburn to be a top-25 running team and a top-25 passing team (efficiency).

Dynamic performer on the defensive line:

The 2004 Auburn defense had the combination of Stanley McClover and Quentin Groves at defensive end. The two combined for 20 tackles for loss, including 15.5 sacks on the season. The 2010 Auburn defense had All-American Nick Fairley, who finished the season with 24.0 tackles for loss, including 11.5 sacks. Antoine Carter finished the season with 11 tackles for loss. During the 2013 season, Auburn had Dee Ford, who finished the season with 14.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks, despite missing several games due to injury. During the same season, Gabe Wright and Carl Lawson combined for an additional 16 tackles for loss and seven sacks.

Projection: The combination of Carl Lawson and Byron Cowart could be one of the better defensive end combos in the conference, should both players live up to their potential. If this is the case, look for Montravius Adams to have a breakout season at the tackle position. Opposing offenses could face a daunting challenge on which player to double-team.

Special Teams:

The 2004 Auburn team possessed great special teams during their championship run. The Tigers finished at No. 19 in net-punting, No. 25 in punt-return offense, No. 19 in punt-return defense, No. 28 in kick-return offense and No. 21 in field goal percentage. The 2010 Auburn Tigers finished at No. 9 in punt-return defense, No. 25 in kick-return offense, No. 16 in kick-return defense and connected on 17 off 22 field goal attempts. During the 2013 campaign, Auburn was No. 3 nationally in the percentage of touchbacks on kick-offs, No. 23 in punt-return offense, No. 27 in kick-return offense and No. 34 in punting average.

Projection: This could be Auburn's biggest unknown entering the 2015 season. Auburn must replace their leading punt-returner and their leading kick-returner. Daniel Carlson pulled double-duty last season, as Auburn's starting place-kicker and punter. Carlson finished 13 of 14 inside the 40-yard line on field goals but was 5 of 10 from 40-yards out. Finding a different starter at punter, would allow Carlson to focus on place-kicker duties only. Auburn has solid candidates to replace the previous starters in the return-game, but Auburn has been inconsistent as of late defending returns. Special teams tend to factor into 3-4 games per season, which could tilt a championship season in either direction.

Talent:

Twenty-two players from the 2004 Auburn team eventually made it to the NFL by draft or free-agency. Eleven players from the 2010 roster also made it to the NFL and 11 from the 2013 roster have been drafted or signed as free-agents thus far. In terms of scholarship players rated as 4 and 5 stars by Scout.com, this will be the most talented roster Auburn has fielded during the rating period of 2002-2015. Auburn currently ranks third in the conference with the most 4-5 star players on roster. The issue is not so much talent as experience and player-development. 2003 and 2014 are fine examples of having talent, yet falling short in terms of wins and losses. Talent at key positions along with quality depth can make or break a team's run for a championship season.

Projection: Plenty of talent across the board but quality depth could become an issue in the secondary.

Experience:

The 2004 Auburn roster began the season with 29 players with 20 games of experience, including 10 with 30 games of experience. The 2010 Auburn roster possessed 23 players with 20 games of experience, including 12 with at least 30 games of experience. The 2013 Auburn squad began the season with 28 players of at least 20 games of experience, including 10 with at least 30-games. Having experience and great senior leadership was a trademark of Auburn's last three SEC Championship teams. It was a driving force behind Auburn combining for a 13-1 record in games decided by 7-points or less and 39-2 overall.

Projection: Auburn will enter the season with only 16 players with 20-games of experience and only 2 with 30 games of experience. This lack of experience could hurt the Tigers this upcoming season as the last 5 Auburn teams to have less than 20-players of 20-games of experience combined for a 33-30 record. Gus Malzahn has already commented on Auburn being a young team this season, which is always a concern for any team regardless of talent level.

[RunInRed 16,360]

Great stuff, as usual, Stat!

[The Plainsman 948]

With a young team, that LSU game will be the major early hurdle. Arky too could be a major problem.

[AURex 1,984]

My hopes are up, but I'm trying to be cautious in my optimism. These same numbers could be posted any year, prior to any season, since it is a recounting of the salient factors that went into three of Auburn's great teams. Those teams set the standards. The numbers tell us what this year's team will need to do, if it is to be a championship-caliber team.

The question, of course, is CAN this year's team achieve those standards. A lot of pundits in the media seem to think so, ranking Auburn in the top 10, even the top 5, in their preseason rankings. But the reality is, we just don't know if the potential will coalesce.

The potential is there. We should all feel optimistic. But there is a lot of inexperience on offense, a lot of uncertainty in the defensive secondary. And the schedule is as brutal as ever in the SEC West.

It's good to know just how good this year's team needs to be in order to achieve that potential. Thanks Stat!

[Tiger 8,817]

Great read. How did Ohio State's roster shake out in terms of players with 20 and 30 games of experience prior to last year? We have a very young squad and usually teams this young and inexperienced don't win the SEC. We are going to need special teams to step up to bridge the gap IMO. There is lots of talent on the team but this squad might be built for the 2016 season assuming nobody leaves early.

[3Jtiger22 0]

Interesting and educating. I appreciate the effort Stat. I always read and seldom comment.

My take is opening in Atlanta with Louisville should prove we don't or won't have to wait too long to see what we have.

War Eagle

[AUwent 3,747]

Great read. How did Ohio State's roster shake out in terms of players with 20 and 30 games of experience prior to last year? We have a very young squad and usually teams this young and inexperienced don't win the SEC. We are going to need special teams to step up to bridge the gap IMO. There is lots of talent on the team but this squad might be built for the 2016 season assuming nobody leaves early.

Sadly not with the SEC oh so wonderfully making us go to Athens and Turdtown on even years. I think there's a good chance several people leave early.

Aside from which, give me a team in the SEC west that doesn't have the same amount of questions this year. To me, there really is no clear frontrunner--not even Bama.

[WarTiger 3,896]

With a young team, that LSU game will be the major early hurdle. Arky too could be a major problem.

Always difficult to play on the road in the SEC but that lsu team is likely a 5 loss team again. They still have NOTHING at QB and they are even thin at that spot now with the jennings arrest. Remains to be seen if he returns to the program or not. The only thing they have on offense is Fournette.

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

With a young team, that LSU game will be the major early hurdle. Arky too could be a major problem.

Always difficult to play on the road in the SEC but that lsu team is likely a 5 loss team again. They still have NOTHING at QB and they are even thin at that spot now with the jennings arrest. Remains to be seen if he returns to the program or not. The only thing they have on offense is Fournette.

And the number 1 receiver from 2014 Malachi Dupre. And Brandon Harris.

[doc4aday 1,887]

LSU lost the best DC they have had in 25 years to TAMU. Steele is huge step down at that position. I know several folks who are LSU fans, and they are still trying to figure the Steele hire. Even with Ogeron at DL, Steele is the DC and will make the calls.

I would not be surprised to see the wheels come off of that team in a really bad way. Miles is living on borrowed time in my honest opinion. A 5-7 is a very real possibility.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

That LSU team is DEEP

deep everywhere honestly

if they get a bit of development from Harris, this could easily be a CFP caliber team

I know we like to get our kicks in but it's not like LSU doesn't have the pieces to beat Auburn, it's just a matter of those pieces working out

For our sakes I hope they don't, and I don't really ever see Cameron being able to adjust to a dual threat QB

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

That LSU team is DEEP

deep everywhere honestly

if they get a bit of development from Harris, this could easily be a CFP caliber team

I know we like to get our kicks in but it's not like LSU doesn't have the pieces to beat Auburn, it's just a matter of those pieces working out

For our sakes I hope they don't, and I don't really ever see Cameron being able to adjust to a dual threat QB

Their defense will be trash next year. Not a threat.

[WarTiger 3,896]

With a young team, that LSU game will be the major early hurdle. Arky too could be a major problem.

Always difficult to play on the road in the SEC but that lsu team is likely a 5 loss team again. They still have NOTHING at QB and they are even thin at that spot now with the jennings arrest. Remains to be seen if he returns to the program or not. The only thing they have on offense is Fournette.

And the number 1 receiver from 2014 Malachi Dupre. And Brandon Harris.

You think that's a good thing? Did you actually watch him play last year? He is AWFUL. Offensively lsu is TERRIBLE and has very little talent.

[Tiger 8,817]

Great read. How did Ohio State's roster shake out in terms of players with 20 and 30 games of experience prior to last year? We have a very young squad and usually teams this young and inexperienced don't win the SEC. We are going to need special teams to step up to bridge the gap IMO. There is lots of talent on the team but this squad might be built for the 2016 season assuming nobody leaves early.

Sadly not with the SEC oh so wonderfully making us go to Athens and Turdtown on even years. I think there's a good chance several people leave early.

Aside from which, give me a team in the SEC west that doesn't have the same amount of questions this year. To me, there really is no clear frontrunner--not even Bama.

I forgot about that. That makes it much tougher.

How young/inexperienced is AU this season compared to LSU or Tennessee last season? I seem to recall people kept saying they were young last year but they have had very good recruiting classes the past few years.

[augolf1716 21,096]

Offensively LSU will live and die by running Mr. Fournette. They need to pray he does not get hurt. B. Harris, at QB, has potential but he will need to prove he can get it done.

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

With a young team, that LSU game will be the major early hurdle. Arky too could be a major problem.

Always difficult to play on the road in the SEC but that lsu team is likely a 5 loss team again. They still have NOTHING at QB and they are even thin at that spot now with the jennings arrest. Remains to be seen if he returns to the program or not. The only thing they have on offense is Fournette.

And the number 1 receiver from 2014 Malachi Dupre. And Brandon Harris.

You think that's a good thing? Did you actually watch him play last year? He is AWFUL. Offensively lsu is TERRIBLE and has very little talent.

Never said it was a good thing, just thought he had potential. You should capitalize your words more often, it really gets your point across.

[AU80cruiser 1,102]

With a young team, that LSU game will be the major early hurdle. Arky too could be a major problem.

Always difficult to play on the road in the SEC but that lsu team is likely a 5 loss team again. They still have NOTHING at QB and they are even thin at that spot now with the jennings arrest. Remains to be seen if he returns to the program or not. The only thing they have on offense is Fournette.

And the number 1 receiver from 2014 Malachi Dupre. And Brandon Harris.

You think that's a good thing? Did you actually watch him play last year? He is AWFUL. Offensively lsu is TERRIBLE and has very little talent.

Never said it was a good thing, just thought he had potential. You should capitalize your words more often, it really gets your point across.

Exactly, I was wondering what Iowa St had to do with the conversation.

[Auburn4life 24]

Great stuff. Also 2003 season offensive coach was Hugh Nall then 2004 was Al Borges. I think this made a big difference also. If Auburn would have had Borges in 2003 I beleive they would have won more games. And I just say this to point out that Auburn has Will Muschamp now for Defensive coach and should make a difference like Al Borges did in 2004 for the offense. But there is still lack of field experience that could cost us loss(es).

[hutchids 227]

Looking back at Auburn's last three championship football teams (2004, 2010 and 2013), there are numerous key elements of an anatomy of a championship season. Reflecting back on these common denominators, provides substance regarding Auburn's potential and projections for 2015. Will the 2015 Auburn Tigers possess the key components to make a run for a championship?

Quarterback:

The 2004 Auburn offense was led by Jason Campbell, who finished the season as the No. 3 rated passer in the country. Cam Newton directed the 2010 Auburn offense as the No. 2 rated quarterback in the country. Nick Marshall was one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the country during 2013, but his pass-efficiency ranking was only No. 33. In conference play, Campbell averaged 228.3 yards per game in total offense while scoring 17 touchdowns. Cam Newton averaged an amazing 310.6 yards per game against SEC competition, totaling 34 offensive touchdowns. Nick Marshall averaged 263.7 yards per conference games, scoring a total of 20 offensive touchdowns.

Projection: Look for Jeremy Johnson to be a top-15 passer in the nation in terms of efficiency and the field general of a very explosive offense. He will surrounded by a solid offensive line and great skill players. He has two years vested in Malzahn's offense and won't require a "break-in" period like Cam Newton needed during 2010. I would not be surprised to see Johnson crack the nation's top-5.

Running back and Run-Offense:

All three previous Auburn championship teams possessed a 1000-yard rusher at the running back position. Carnell Williams in 2004, Michael Dyer in 2010 and Tre Mason in 2013. The 2004 Auburn run-offense was No. 29 nationally, No. 5 in 2010 and No. 1 in 2013. Auburn's ability to be balanced on offense during all three seasons, kept defenses on their heels. Over the past 15 seasons, only 13 teams from the Southeastern Conference finished the season ranked in the nation's top-25 in rushing and top-25 in pass-efficiency. On an average, only 7-8 teams at the FBS level have accomplished this statistical feat from 2000-2014. The 2010 and 2013 teams made the list, and the 2004 Auburn offense barely missed the cut. Auburn was No. 29 in rushing during the undefeated 2004 season. Six of Gus Malzahn's nine collegiate offenses accomplished the feat.

Projection: Barring injury, look for Auburn to have once again another 1000-yard rusher in 2015. It will be interesting to see which Auburn running back separates himself from the others to receive the majority of carries. It will likely be a "committee" approach early on but I expect one to eventually rise above the others. Jovon Robinson, Roc Thomas, and Peyton Barber give Auburn plenty of options and potential for another strong running game. Malzahn has fielded a 1000-yard rusher at the running back position in all nine seasons at the collegiate level. I also expect Auburn to be a top-25 running team and a top-25 passing team (efficiency).

Dynamic performer on the defensive line:

The 2004 Auburn defense had the combination of Stanley McClover and Quentin Groves at defensive end. The two combined for 20 tackles for loss, including 15.5 sacks on the season. The 2010 Auburn defense had All-American Nick Fairley, who finished the season with 24.0 tackles for loss, including 11.5 sacks. Antoine Carter finished the season with 11 tackles for loss. During the 2013 season, Auburn had Dee Ford, who finished the season with 14.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks, despite missing several games due to injury. During the same season, Gabe Wright and Carl Lawson combined for an additional 16 tackles for loss and seven sacks.

Projection: The combination of Carl Lawson and Byron Cowart could be one of the better defensive end combos in the conference, should both players live up to their potential. If this is the case, look for Montravius Adams to have a breakout season at the tackle position. Opposing offenses could face a daunting challenge on which player to double-team.

Special Teams:

The 2004 Auburn team possessed great special teams during their championship run. The Tigers finished at No. 19 in net-punting, No. 25 in punt-return offense, No. 19 in punt-return defense, No. 28 in kick-return offense and No. 21 in field goal percentage. The 2010 Auburn Tigers finished at No. 9 in punt-return defense, No. 25 in kick-return offense, No. 16 in kick-return defense and connected on 17 off 22 field goal attempts. During the 2013 campaign, Auburn was No. 3 nationally in the percentage of touchbacks on kick-offs, No. 23 in punt-return offense, No. 27 in kick-return offense and No. 34 in punting average.

Projection: This could be Auburn's biggest unknown entering the 2015 season. Auburn must replace their leading punt-returner and their leading kick-returner. Daniel Carlson pulled double-duty last season, as Auburn's starting place-kicker and punter. Carlson finished 13 of 14 inside the 40-yard line on field goals but was 5 of 10 from 40-yards out. Finding a different starter at punter, would allow Carlson to focus on place-kicker duties only. Auburn has solid candidates to replace the previous starters in the return-game, but Auburn has been inconsistent as of late defending returns. Special teams tend to factor into 3-4 games per season, which could tilt a championship season in either direction.

Talent:

Twenty-two players from the 2004 Auburn team eventually made it to the NFL by draft or free-agency. Eleven players from the 2010 roster also made it to the NFL and 11 from the 2013 roster have been drafted or signed as free-agents thus far. In terms of scholarship players rated as 4 and 5 stars by Scout.com, this will be the most talented roster Auburn has fielded during the rating period of 2002-2015. Auburn currently ranks third in the conference with the most 4-5 star players on roster. The issue is not so much talent as experience and player-development. 2003 and 2014 are fine examples of having talent, yet falling short in terms of wins and losses. Talent at key positions along with quality depth can make or break a team's run for a championship season.

Projection: Plenty of talent across the board but quality depth could become an issue in the secondary.

Experience:

The 2004 Auburn roster began the season with 29 players with 20 games of experience, including 10 with 30 games of experience. The 2010 Auburn roster possessed 23 players with 20 games of experience, including 12 with at least 30 games of experience. The 2013 Auburn squad began the season with 28 players of at least 20 games of experience, including 10 with at least 30-games. Having experience and great senior leadership was a trademark of Auburn's last three SEC Championship teams. It was a driving force behind Auburn combining for a 13-1 record in games decided by 7-points or less and 39-2 overall.

Projection: Auburn will enter the season with only 16 players with 20-games of experience and only 2 with 30 games of experience. This lack of experience could hurt the Tigers this upcoming season as the last 5 Auburn teams to have less than 20-players of 20-games of experience combined for a 33-30 record. Gus Malzahn has already commented on Auburn being a young team this season, which is always a concern for any team regardless of talent level.

Very good man! how are you not paid for this?

Btw, LSU is always hard on the road, but they are probably 4th at best in the west this year.

[AUIH1 1,515]

Thanks Stat. Great info as usual. Please post more often.

wde

[AuTigersX311 2]

great stuff as usual Stat. But there is on factor that you are missing. This is the Chicago Blackhawks factor. The Chicago Blackhawks have won the Stanley Cup the same year that we have gone to the national championship. (2010 & 2013)

I know it might be a coincidence but I don't think so.

[Tiger 8,817]

Is there a 20 and 30 game experience breakdown of the teams in the SEC West anywhere? Not requesting it (due to the insane amt of work it would be to figure that out), just wondering.

Our youth does not bode well for us this season at all considering the history, although I do think having Gus gives us hope that we won't be like those teams that ended up 33-30. Too much youth can be extremely detrimental for a season and this statistic seems to be a solid indicator of how a season will go to a certain extent. I am expecting 9 wins, 10 would be great but anything more than that and I think we should be ecstatic.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Is there a 20 and 30 game experience breakdown of the teams in the SEC West anywhere? Not requesting it (due to the insane amt of work it would be to figure that out), just wondering.

Our youth does not bode well for us this season at all considering the history, although I do think having Gus gives us hope that we won't be like those teams that ended up 33-30. Too much youth can be extremely detrimental for a season and this statistic seems to be a solid indicator of how a season will go to a certain extent. I am expecting 9 wins, 10 would be great but anything more than that and I think we should be ecstatic.

Stat actually covered this in one of his podcasts. We're young compared to the rest of the West.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Y'all be careful citing our inexperience. Some folks 'round here don't take too kindly to it.

[Tiger 8,817]

Is there a 20 and 30 game experience breakdown of the teams in the SEC West anywhere? Not requesting it (due to the insane amt of work it would be to figure that out), just wondering.

Our youth does not bode well for us this season at all considering the history, although I do think having Gus gives us hope that we won't be like those teams that ended up 33-30. Too much youth can be extremely detrimental for a season and this statistic seems to be a solid indicator of how a season will go to a certain extent. I am expecting 9 wins, 10 would be great but anything more than that and I think we should be ecstatic.

Stat actually covered this in one of his podcasts. We're young compared to the rest of the West.

Thanks! I listened to one of his podcasts, it was great. Factual based and not homer talk like on al.com lol. That is not the news I wanted to hear though. This surely makes me steer away from putting money on AU to make it to the CFP. Someone convince me otherwise. What makes this team so much better than the previous teams that went 33-30? History and data are stacked against this years AU team IMO.

The last time we were crazy young up and down the roster was right after the national championship and that team was very much stuck in the mud.