Auctoritas 2,828 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/25227719/professional-bettors-backing-auburn-byu-fading-on-mizzou-for-2015 FWIW for those who pay attention to such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shift 350 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I appreciate the love from the betters but its WAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY to early to make such assumptions. ALOT can (and will) happen between now and then. IMO, This speaks more to a gambling addiction than it does anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc4aday 1,887 Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/25227719/professional-bettors-backing-auburn-byu-fading-on-mizzou-for-2015 FWIW for those who pay attention to such things. I do not mean to sound stupid.....I guess I really stupid to ask this question . When you see the line where for example, you have Wisconsin & Alabama with a -11 falling to the right of Alabama, does this mean that Alabama is an 11 point favorite? I do not gamble or follow much of what comes out of Vegas. Please educate me on this. WDE Doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timeslider 6 269 Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 http://www.cbssports...mizzou-for-2015 FWIW for those who pay attention to such things. I do not mean to sound stupid.....I guess I really stupid to ask this question . When you see the line where for example, you have Wisconsin & Alabama with a -11 falling to the right of Alabama, does this mean that Alabama is an 11 point favorite? I do not gamble or follow much of what comes out of Vegas. Please educate me on this. WDE Doc i don't bet either, but i do know that the line reflects the amount of money being bet on one team or the other. Vegas tries to even out (as much as possible) the amount being bet on either team. I hope i said that correctly. I know they move the line depending on how the betting is going. :dunno: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey 16,576 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 http://www.cbssports...mizzou-for-2015 FWIW for those who pay attention to such things. I do not mean to sound stupid.....I guess I really stupid to ask this question . When you see the line where for example, you have Wisconsin & Alabama with a -11 falling to the right of Alabama, does this mean that Alabama is an 11 point favorite? I do not gamble or follow much of what comes out of Vegas. Please educate me on this. WDE Doc The -11 beside bammer means they are an 11 point favorite. "-11" is expressed that way because to bet on UAT you have to give away 11 points. It is a little confusing, but that's the way they write it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarEagle1983 2,185 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I'm no high roller but def. a bettor. Hoping it drops lower as time gets closer. Only thing to really bet on this early would be some "props". Like the Over/Under for the number of games Auburn is expected to win this season or chances Auburn will make it to the playoffs. Those are the only two I'd consider at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rednilla 5,383 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I would guess that Auburn is getting love from bettors because there is a very high reward factor involved. The long odds against coupled with a great deal of talent and top notch coaching means they can make a LOT of money, relatively speaking, if they guess right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarEagle1983 2,185 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Besides last year....Auburn has consistently been undervalued by Vegas; esp. during the 2013 season. I normally don't bet on my teams b/c of the emotion factor but the lines in 2013 were too good to pass up b/c week after week we were constantly the underdog or the cover was small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURex 1,994 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I'm not a gambler either, but I understand the basic principle. The bookies are not exactly saying that Alabama is predicted to win by 11 points against Wisconsin. What the line means is that they are having to give Wisconsin 11 points in order to get people to BET on Wisconsin. As more people bet on Wisconsin +11 points, the line will probably drop. The line serves as the cover for bets. It levels the field. If Alabama wins by more than 11 points, and you bet on Wisconsin, you lose your money and those who bet on Bama win their money plus a profit. However, if Alabama loses OR if Bama wins by LESS than 11 points, people who bet on Wisconsin profit and those who bet on Bama lose their money. So those professional bettors are not necessarily betting that Auburn will win those games. They are betting that Auburn will not lose by as many points as originally estimated. But if you read the article, the bookies are still setting the line at Auburn +1.5 vs Arkansas, meaning that, based on the volume of betting, the pigs are still expected to win the game. Same against Bama. Auburn is still getting 2.5 points, meaning that most bettors are still expecting Bama to win a close game. If you are betting, that means if Bama wins by 1 point, people who bet on Auburn still win their bet. If Bama wins by a field goal, Auburn bettors lose their money. Like I say, I'm not a gambler, so if I got this wrong, correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarEagle1983 2,185 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I'm not a gambler either, but I understand the basic principle. The bookies are not exactly saying that Alabama is predicted to win by 11 points against Wisconsin. What the line means is that they are having to give Wisconsin 11 points in order to get people to BET on Wisconsin. As more people bet on Wisconsin +11 points, the line will probably drop. The line serves as the cover for bets. It levels the field. If Alabama wins by more than 11 points, and you bet on Wisconsin, you lose your money and those who bet on Bama win their money plus a profit. However, if Alabama loses OR if Bama wins by LESS than 11 points, people who bet on Wisconsin profit and those who bet on Bama lose their money. So those professional bettors are not necessarily betting that Auburn will win those games. They are betting that Auburn will not lose by as many points as originally estimated. But if you read the article, the bookies are still setting the line at Auburn +1.5 vs Arkansas, meaning that, based on the volume of betting, the pigs are still expected to win the game. Same against Bama. Auburn is still getting 2.5 points, meaning that most bettors are still expecting Bama to win a close game. If you are betting, that means if Bama wins by 1 point, people who bet on Auburn still win their bet. If Bama wins by a field goal, Auburn bettors lose their money. Like I say, I'm not a gambler, so if I got this wrong, correct me. You're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mustache eagle 2,397 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 The line isn't necessarily how many points they think one team will beat the other by. It is the number they hope will get half the bettors on either side. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarEagle84 0 Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 The line isn't necessarily how many points they think one team will beat the other by. It is the number they hope will get half the bettors on either side. Correct? Pretty much. The idea is to induce bettors to put equal amounts of money on each team so that whichever team wins, they make money. The initial lines are set by knowledgeable pros and are based on what they think the spread will be, but will change quickly if too much money goes to one side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auctoritas 2,828 Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 The line isn't necessarily how many points they think one team will beat the other by. It is the number they hope will get half the bettors on either side. Correct? Pretty much. The idea is to induce bettors to put equal amounts of money on each team so that whichever team wins, they make money. The initial lines are set by knowledgeable pros and are based on what they think the spread will be, but will change quickly if too much money goes to one side. And, it's good to note, that many of the bets being placed this early are by professional bettors, not fans/hopefuls/Bammers. Those bettors are savvy and do as much research as the sports books do, just for different results. As mentioned, the books are trying to split the money evenly to mitigate losses/hedge bets, and the bettors are straight up trying to take advantage of bad decisions by those same books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarEagle1983 2,185 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I was in Vegas during the start of March Madness and it was definitely madness. I've been doing it for going on 6 years and there's certainly a lot of research, stats,formulas And spreadsheets that go into it. The huge high rollers are the ones that are placing bets this early but not many as teams have to get through fall camp without injuries to major players. That why you will be seeing a ton of movement on some lines 2-3 weeks leading up to the games because you're likely to get similar value but you not stuck with a bet if a major player is gone due to an injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU64 10,122 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 JMO but it probably takes a lot of point to discourage bama fans from betting on their team and giving the points. ....though I acknowledge that the tide has a history of winning big when they win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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