Which SEC team breaks the pattern?

[AURex 1,994]

Of all the SEC coaches in recent years who lasted more than 3 seasons, only four have improved records from season 2 to season 3. In other words, most SEC teams level off or do worse in year three of their head coach's tenure.

The 4 coaches who had better records in year 3 than they did in year 2 -- Nick Saban, Les Miles, Bobby Petrino, and Hugh Freeze. All of the other coaches in recent years had a drop off in year 3.

So, we have an opportunity to look at this pattern in action again this year. The SEC has 3 coaches entering their 3rd year.

Bret Bielema - Arkansas. Second year record 8-5 (3-5 SEC) finished strong by clobbering Texas in its bowl game.

Butch Jones - Tennessee. Second year record 7-6 (3-5 SEC) finished by pounding Iowa in its bowl game.

Gus Malzahn - Auburn. Second year record 8-5 (4-4 SEC) with a loss to Wisconsin in its bowl game.

Expectations are high for all three of these teams. With great recruiting classes now maturing, Tennessee is widely expected to compete with UGA and Missouri for the East title. A lot of pundits think Arkansas is poised to pick up where it left off last season. And of course, Auburn has been high in most of the national preseason polls (although not necessarily on Vegas betting cards).

Tennessee faces a pretty stout schedule again this year, facing Oklahoma OOC and both Bama and Arkansas as non-division opponents, as well as UGA and Missouri in their division. They will need to win at least one of those games to improve on their 2014 record.

Arkansas has to run the West division gauntlet of Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, A&M and Auburn, and faces both Tennessee and Missouri from the East. Their OOC schedule is all patsies. Still, can they beat 4 or more of those formidable SEC opponents?

Auburn always has a tough schedule that includes Bama, LSU and UGA as well as the rest of the SEC West - A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas and MSU. But with Kentucky from the East, it's only other real challenge will come from Louisville in its OOC opener.

The Tennessee/Arkansas game on October 3 may determine whether either of those teams can improve on last year's schedule. Auburn has a good chance of attaining a better record this year, if it can avoid losses in games that *should* be in the W column (Kentucky, A&M, OM, MSU, Ark). The Louisville game may be the clue to the season.

What say you? Can all three teams improve over last year? Of Tennessee and Arkansas, which do you think has the best shot? And do you think Arkansas is a threat beat Auburn this year?

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,294]

"Auburn has a good chance of attaining a better record this year, if it can avoid losses in games that *should* be in the W column (Kentucky, A&M, OM, MSU, Ark). The Louisville game may be the clue to the season."

Can't agree with that. We shouldn't win those games. They're winnable, but we could go 12-2 or 3-8.

To your question- I think Tennessee improves the most and goes undefeated and plays in the playoff, beating us in the sec championship. That defense is for real.

[AUbritt 611]

Nice post.

All three can do it, IMO. The fact that Arky plays both Auburn and UTk means that they have two potential losses right there. Of course, they might win both games, too. But neither UTk nor Auburn play each other, so I guess the odds are a little better for us than for Arky.

If I could only pick one team from the group, it would be Auburn.

If I were picking two, it would be Auburn and UTk (both because they play in the East and because they have to win one fewer to improve over last season).

Arky will not beat us this year, no.

[auburntiger1987 759]

"Auburn has a good chance of attaining a better record this year, if it can avoid losses in games that *should* be in the W column (Kentucky, A&M, OM, MSU, Ark). The Louisville game may be the clue to the season."

Can't agree with that. We shouldn't win those games. They're winnable, but we could go 12-2 or 3-8.

To your question- I think Tennessee improves the most and goes undefeated and plays in the playoff, beating us in the sec championship. That defense is for real.

I want whatever you've got man. Tenn may be improved but i'd bet hard that they dont go close to undefeated

[WFE12 9,191]

Nice post.

All three can do it, IMO. The fact that Arky plays both Auburn and UTk means that they have two potential losses right there. Of course, they might win both games, too. But neither UTk nor Auburn play each other, so I guess the odds are a little better for us than for Arky.

If I could only pick one team from the group, it would be Auburn.

If I were picking two, it would be Auburn and UTk (both because they play in the East and because they have to win one fewer to improve over last season).

Arky will not beat us this year, no.

idk man...that massive o-line and that two head monster tandem at rb worries me...they will not be an easy win that's for sure

[WarTiger 3,901]

"Auburn has a good chance of attaining a better record this year, if it can avoid losses in games that *should* be in the W column (Kentucky, A&M, OM, MSU, Ark). The Louisville game may be the clue to the season."

Can't agree with that. We shouldn't win those games. They're winnable, but we could go 12-2 or 3-8.

I totally disagree. We SHOULD defeat Kentucky, A&M, Ole Miss, MSU and Arkansas every year or at the very least 8 out of every 10 years. Our program is far superior historically to any of those. We should beat them on a regular basis.

To your question- I think Tennessee improves the most and goes undefeated and plays in the playoff, beating us in the sec championship. That defense is for real.

I agree Tennessee will be the most improved from the east, but I see no way they will be undefeated or beat us in the SEC title game should they get there. 9-3 for UT...