Mississippi State Game Report Card

[StatTiger 3,188]

Gus Malzahn quickly pointed out the miscues inside the red zone as the key contributor to the loss. Though there is some truth to this statement, his conservative nature also hampered the offense tonight against Mississippi State. Toss out the last offensive possession and 88% of the pass attempts were within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. This conservative approach made the quarterback change pointless for the most part. Jeremy Johnson was already completing 84% of his passes without an interception within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Not to take away from a gutty performance by Sean White, but Johnson could have produced the same results. The opening drive was great in terms of mixing up the play calling but it appeared after the opening interception, Malzahn became ultra conservative. During the first possession, we saw 8 runs and 5 passes. During the next 5 possessions, 33 runs and 6 passes.

Auburn entered the game, running the football 83% of the time on first down, more than the 2013 offense that produced a record setting running game. Averaging 6.7 yards per rush on 1st down during 2013, explained why AU was so run-heavy on first down two years ago. The 2015 Auburn Tigers entered the MSU game averaging only 4.4 yards per rush on first down, gaining only 3.4 yards per rush on first down tonight. Auburn ran the ball 92% of the time on first down during their first 25 first down snaps. During their last 9 first down plays, the Tigers threw the ball 7 times but only because they were forced to throw the ball late in the game. On the flip side, MSU knew it would be difficult to run the ball on first down, electing to throw the football primarily on first down. The Bulldogs threw 10 times on 13 first down snaps during the first half, building a 14-0 lead by halftime, while averaging 7.3 yards per play, throwing on first down.

The defense obviously played well enough to win tonight. After allowing 7.7 yards per play during the first half and 14 points, the Auburn defense allowed only 3.5 yards per play during the second-half and only 3 points. Kudos to Coach Will Muschamp in sending a message to his defense by playing several new starters and producing a game-winning performance. Kudos to the offensive personnel that played hard despite being limited with a very conservative game-plan. The report card feature has been in place since the 2009 season and this marks the first time that 2 phases of the game had a passing performance yet lost the game. Auburn is now 47-1 in their last 48 games with two phases of the game having a passing performance.

_________________________________________________________

Game #4 Statistical Evaluation (Miss State Game)

Offensive Report Card

01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1^st down: [4.56] fail

02) Convert at least 40% of 3^rd downs: [28.6%] fail

03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [4.0] fail

04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [30.0%] fail

05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [11.1%] pass

06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [6.71 yds] fail

07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [50.0%] fail

08) TD red zone above 60%: [00.0%] fail

09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [38.9 yds] pass

10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [33.3%] fail

11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [0/1] fail

12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [0/78] fail

13) At least 8 impact plays: [7] fail

14) At least 2 big plays: [0] fail

15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [120.7] fail

Score: 2 of 15 (13.3%) Fail

Defensive Report Card:

01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1^st down: [5.08] pass

02) Convert below 35% of 3^rd downs: [33.3%] pass

03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush: [2.7] pass

04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [27.3%] pass

05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [22.2%] fail

06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [6.58 yds] pass

07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] fail

08) TD red zone below 60%: [100.0%] fail

09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [29.6 yds] pass

10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [43.5%] fail

11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [2/1] pass

12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [31.0] pass

13) Less than 8 impact plays: [7] pass

14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: [1] pass

15) Pass rating below 125.0: [142.1] fail

Score: 10 of 15 (66.7%) Pass

Special Teams Report Card:

1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [41.4] 1/5 inside 20 (pass)

2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [4.0] pass

3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [4.0] fail

4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [0.0] pass

5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [24.0] pass

6) PAT’s (100%): [0 of 0] N/A

7) FG Pct (75% or above): [3/4] pass

Score: 5 of 6 (83.3%) pass

* Keep in mind that above 50% is a passing score.

War Eagle!

[Barnacle 9,064]

Gus Malzahn quickly pointed out the miscues inside the red zone as the key contributor to the loss. Though there is some truth to this statement, his conservative nature also hampered the offense tonight against Mississippi State. Toss out the last offensive possession and 88% of the pass attempts were within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. This conservative approach made the quarterback change pointless for the most part. Jeremy Johnson was already completing 84% of his passes without an interception within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Not to take away from a gutty performance by Sean White, but Johnson could have produced the same results. The opening drive was great in terms of mixing up the play calling but it appeared after the opening interception, Malzahn became ultra conservative.

Auburn entered the game, running the football 83% of the time on first down, more than the 2013 offense that produced a record setting running game. Averaging 6.7 yards per rush on 1st down during 2013, explained why AU was so run-heavy on first down two years ago. The 2015 Auburn Tigers entered the MSU game averaging only 4.4 yards per rush on first down, gaining only 3.4 yards per rush on first down tonight. Auburn ran the ball 92% of the time on first down during their first 25 first down snaps. During their last 9 first down plays, the Tigers threw the ball 7 times but only because they were forced to throw the ball late in the game. On the flip side, MSU knew it would be difficult to run the ball on first down, electing to throw the football primarily on first down. The Bulldogs threw 10 times on 13 first down snaps during the first half, building a 14-0 lead by halftime, while averaging 7.3 yards per play, throwing on first down.

The defense obviously played well enough to win tonight. After allowing 7.7 yards per play during the first half and 14 points, the Auburn defense allowed only 3.5 yards per play during the second-half and only 3 points. Kudos to Coach Will Muschamp in sending a message to his defense by playing several new starters and producing a game-winning performance. Kudos to the offensive personnel that played hard despite being limited with a very conservative game-plan. The report card feature has been in place since the 2009 season and this marks the first time that 2 phases of the game had a passing performance yet lost the game. Auburn is now 47-1 in their last 48 games with two phases of the game having a passing performance.

Couldn't have said it better myself! Stat, thanks as always. Gus' conservative play calling on first down really hits home when you see the numbers down. Very frustrating to watch when I thought White showed himself to be worthy of more opportunities to throw the ball down field.

[WinForAuburn 128]

Well, glad to see the D perform well. White looked good and the running game was successful, but we for whatever reason can't throw downfield and It''s hurting us.

[CR 2,438]

Stat, is there any chance you could pull some numbers on AU offensive penalties on 1st down specifically? Seems to be a major issue this season. Thanks as always for the info you provide here.

[lala 327]

Got to realize the difference in the teams. We have a rfresh, first time starter and they have a 4th yr senior. I think his plan was conservative on purpose especially after the 1st int and it should have been and we still could have won if not for a high snap.

Typically you would expect that to be game 1 with a first yr young QB working on his growing pains and the coaches seeing what he can do. Hopefully by game 4, the QB is ready to make plays. We have just happened to start 4 games into the season.

[AU64 10,122]

Hard for me to know what is "conservative" and what is "just Gus"...who says he has a run first offense....though the hand full of passes that SW threw was fewer than usual...no question about that. ....note the Gusism....but anyway, guess I'm not sure that JJ could or would have done better with the pressure SW was getting. In the past he's had the tendency to just throw the ball ....somewhere.....whereas SW took pretty good care of it though he ate a few that he could have dumped.

17 points by the D....that should have been good enough.

Red Zone offense coming up to bite us in the fanny again.....which is not new...has been an issue for Gus ...forever it seems.

Thanks for the analysis....about what we expected from just watching the game....

Final score reflects the pass-fail status of the O and D.

[AU-24 3,063]

Got to realize the difference in the teams. We have a rfresh, first time starter and they have a 4th yr senior. I think his plan was conservative on purpose especially after the 1st int and it should have been and we still could have won if not for a high snap.

Typically you would expect that to be game 1 with a first yr young QB working on his growing pains and the coaches seeing what he can do. Hopefully by game 4, the QB is ready to make plays. We have just happened to start 4 games into the season.

Mushchamp held their 4 year starter to 3 points the last three quarters.

No excuses, this one is on Gus!

[Raven_tiger 5]

. This conservative approach made the quarterback change pointless for the most part. Jeremy Johnson was already completing 84% of his passes without an interception within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Not to take away from a gutty performance by Sean White, but Johnson could have produced the same results.

I disagree. Sean White showed some leadership and was willing to do the little things like: blocking on running plays and showing some unexpected athleticism while running the ball; Jeremy Johnson has not shown these traits this season. In addition, White seemed to be a (vocal and by example) leader. So yes if the only benchmark that you would like to point to is pass completion % <10yds, then JJ would be the same as SW. However in all other aspects of the QB performance (tangible and intangible) SW was superior to JJ. Sean White may not be Jay Cutler but he has tremendous upside and could help this team be successful. Now the question(s) regarding Gus and his playcalling.

[AURealist 2,185]

What's AU's average yardage needed to convert on 3rd downs this season? Being conservative on 1st and 10 isn't doing the QBs any favors.

And don't even get me started on the decision to power run for short yardage on 2nd and short. To my mind, that's the time to take risks.

[lewisbr 0]

Gotta disagree about JJ. I don't think he could have made even the short passes SW was making

[lala 327]

Got to realize the difference in the teams. We have a rfresh, first time starter and they have a 4th yr senior. I think his plan was conservative on purpose especially after the 1st int and it should have been and we still could have won if not for a high snap.

Typically you would expect that to be game 1 with a first yr young QB working on his growing pains and the coaches seeing what he can do. Hopefully by game 4, the QB is ready to make plays. We have just happened to start 4 games into the season.

Mushchamp held their 4 year starter to 3 points the last three quarters.

No excuses, this one is on Gus!

i am not making excuses just facts of what you saw. It was conservative because of what I said and we still could have won. You guys are expecting a nick Marshall and Cam newton as 1st time starters and it is not realistic.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Got to realize the difference in the teams. We have a rfresh, first time starter and they have a 4th yr senior. I think his plan was conservative on purpose especially after the 1st int and it should have been and we still could have won if not for a high snap.

Typically you would expect that to be game 1 with a first yr young QB working on his growing pains and the coaches seeing what he can do. Hopefully by game 4, the QB is ready to make plays. We have just happened to start 4 games into the season.

Normally I would agree but....

The best possession of the night was the OPENING drive, where Auburn called 7 run plays and 6 passes. The drive netted over 70-yards and 5 first downs. What a great start but a blunder in the RZ from the pick. What happens next? On the next 5 possessions, 33 runs and only 6 passes.

[AUbritt 611]

Hard for me to know what is "conservative" and what is "just Gus"...who says he has a run first offense....though the hand full of passes that SW threw was fewer than usual...no question about that. ....note the Gusism....but anyway, guess I'm not sure that JJ could or would have done better with the pressure SW was getting. In the past he's had the tendency to just throw the ball ....somewhere.....whereas SW took pretty good care of it though he ate a few that he could have dumped.

17 points by the D....that should have been good enough.

Red Zone offense coming up to bite us in the fanny again.....which is not new...has been an issue for Gus ...forever it seems.

Thanks for the analysis....about what we expected from just watching the game....

Final score reflects the pass-fail status of the O and D.

The most striking part of Stat's analysis was to me was the claim that JJ would have done just as well with that game plan. I understand that JJ has good stats on the short passes, too. But Sean seemed to me to be more in command, more decisive, and more worthy of having the coaches open up the playbook.

So, I agree with you, 64 -- not sure JJ would have done just as well or better than SW.

I guess I also interpret Stat as saying that, if we were going to make a change in QB (and we did), then we ought also to have made changes in the game plan and play calling to do some things with SW that JJ wasn't getting done (like throw it downfield more).

I completely agree that 17 points should be enough to win the game. Gus needs to get this figured out, and quickly.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Gotta disagree about JJ. I don't think he could have made even the short passes SW was making

Both are completing 77 percent of their passes within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. JJ averages 6.9 yards per attempt and SW 5.9 yards. JJ had 0 picks and 2 TD's from 48 attempts and SW already has 1 pick and 0 TD's from 22 attempts.

[AUbritt 611]

Gotta disagree about JJ. I don't think he could have made even the short passes SW was making

Both are completing 77 percent of their passes within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. JJ averages 6.9 yards per attempt and SW 5.9 yards. JJ had 0 picks and 2 TD's from 48 attempts and SW already has 1 pick and 0 TD's from 22 attempts.

So, Stat -- are you suggesting we should go back to JJ?

Or are you suggesting Gus needs to let SW loose more?

[doug3020 842]

Gotta disagree about JJ. I don't think he could have made even the short passes SW was making

Both are completing 77 percent of their passes within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. JJ averages 6.9 yards per attempt and SW 5.9 yards. JJ had 0 picks and 2 TD's from 48 attempts and SW already has 1 pick and 0 TD's from 22 attempts.

Stat- I love statistics and all, however they aren't all equal. SW threw a int in the end zone. The field is significantly shorter here so a 10yd pass from the 10 yd line is not the same as a 10 yd pass from midfield. From a pure #'s standpoint 10yds is 10yds, but from a decision making standpoint they are completely different. How many int's has JJ thrown within the redzone? I can't recall any. Due to this, I actually don't agree with you. I think SW managed the offense significantly better than JJ. The midrange post to Duke that was dropped was right on the money without hesitation. Also, White checked down on a minimum of 4 plays to hit underneath receivers (mostly RB's) bc it appeared nothing was open downfield. We've watched JJ for 3 games and again, I am having difficulty thinking of 4 examples where he actually went thru progressions.

We all love your assessment around here, but give us your opinion (not based on statistics which can be skewed such as the above examples). Who do you feel gives us a better chance to win?

[TexasTiger 12,828]

. This conservative approach made the quarterback change pointless for the most part. Jeremy Johnson was already completing 84% of his passes without an interception within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Not to take away from a gutty performance by Sean White, but Johnson could have produced the same results.

I disagree. Sean White showed some leadership and was willing to do the little things like: blocking on running plays and showing some unexpected athleticism while running the ball; Jeremy Johnson has not shown these traits this season. In addition, White seemed to be a (vocal and by example) leader. So yes if the only benchmark that you would like to point to is pass completion % <10yds, then JJ would be the same as SW. However in all other aspects of the QB performance (tangible and intangible) SW was superior to JJ. Sean White may not be Jay Cutler but he has tremendous upside and could help this team be successful. Now the question(s) regarding Gus and his playcalling.

Exactly-- this is an example where focusing exclusively on numbers leads to an erroneous conclusion.

[EagleReedle 14]

I left with an optimistic view of Sean White following the MSU loss. The interception early on near the end zone I think was very unfortunate for him but I understood the throw he was trying to make. I felt a spark that was unable to grow due to the limitations of a young qb also the fumbled goaline snap only further smothered Whites spark of the offense. I hope we go with him this Saturday. ( I think he could develop in to a Chris Todd esque qb) Also where has D. Williams been? I don't seem to see him on the field so much as him not being thrown to.

[TexasTiger 12,828]

I left with an optimistic view of Sean White following the MSU loss. The interception early on near the end zone I think was very unfortunate for him but I understood the throw he was trying to make. I felt a spark that was unable to grow due to the limitations of a young qb also the fumbled goaline snap only further smothered Whites spark of the offense. I hope we go with him this Saturday. ( I think he could develop in to a Chris Todd esque qb) Also where has D. Williams been? I don't seem to see him on the field so much as him not being thrown to.

He made a good grab late and also dropped one.

[Grinder 39]

White's interception was more due to an experienced defender baiting him on the play. JJ's picks are due to hitting stationary defenders square in the numbers. Also SW only had the one questionable pass whereas JJ should have many more (including multiple pick sixes) but for some stone handed defenders.

[mikeymac 8]

Gotta disagree about JJ. I don't think he could have made even the short passes SW was making

Both are completing 77 percent of their passes within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. JJ averages 6.9 yards per attempt and SW 5.9 yards. JJ had 0 picks and 2 TD's from 48 attempts and SW already has 1 pick and 0 TD's from 22 attempts.

Stat- I love statistics and all, however they aren't all equal. SW threw a int in the end zone. The field is significantly shorter here so a 10yd pass from the 10 yd line is not the same as a 10 yd pass from midfield. From a pure #'s standpoint 10yds is 10yds, but from a decision making standpoint they are completely different. How many int's has JJ thrown within the redzone? I can't recall any. Due to this, I actually don't agree with you. I think SW managed the offense significantly better than JJ. The midrange post to Duke that was dropped was right on the money without hesitation. Also, White checked down on a minimum of 4 plays to hit underneath receivers (mostly RB's) bc it appeared nothing was open downfield. We've watched JJ for 3 games and again, I am having difficulty thinking of 4 examples where he actually went thru progressions.

We all love your assessment around here, but give us your opinion (not based on statistics which can be skewed such as the above examples). Who do you feel gives us a better chance to win?

You feel better because White's interception occurred in the redzone? I don't see how that is better.

[AUbritt 611]

White's interception was more due to an experienced defender baiting him on the play. JJ's picks are due to hitting stationary defenders square in the numbers. Also SW only had the one questionable pass whereas JJ should have many more (including multiple pick sixes) but for some stone handed defenders.

SW should have had at least one other pick, but it was dropped by the defender.

[doug3020 842]

Gotta disagree about JJ. I don't think he could have made even the short passes SW was making

Both are completing 77 percent of their passes within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. JJ averages 6.9 yards per attempt and SW 5.9 yards. JJ had 0 picks and 2 TD's from 48 attempts and SW already has 1 pick and 0 TD's from 22 attempts.

Stat- I love statistics and all, however they aren't all equal. SW threw a int in the end zone. The field is significantly shorter here so a 10yd pass from the 10 yd line is not the same as a 10 yd pass from midfield. From a pure #'s standpoint 10yds is 10yds, but from a decision making standpoint they are completely different. How many int's has JJ thrown within the redzone? I can't recall any. Due to this, I actually don't agree with you. I think SW managed the offense significantly better than JJ. The midrange post to Duke that was dropped was right on the money without hesitation. Also, White checked down on a minimum of 4 plays to hit underneath receivers (mostly RB's) bc it appeared nothing was open downfield. We've watched JJ for 3 games and again, I am having difficulty thinking of 4 examples where he actually went thru progressions.

We all love your assessment around here, but give us your opinion (not based on statistics which can be skewed such as the above examples). Who do you feel gives us a better chance to win?

You feel better because White's interception occurred in the redzone? I don't see how that is better.

I not talking about feelings. I'm talking about comparing apples to apples. 6 int's hitting open defenders b/w the 20's is a lot different then a RFr mistake throwing across the body in a short field. Take feelings out of it.

[doug3020 842]

Let's compare this a different way using basketball. We each have 10 shots from 10 feet. I shoot to a 10 foot goal. You shoot to a 20 ft high goal. Both shots remain from 10 feet but the difficulty is significantly different. That's why you have to account for variables in statistics. I believe Mark Twain had something to say about them...

[mikeymac 8]

Gotta disagree about JJ. I don't think he could have made even the short passes SW was making

Both are completing 77 percent of their passes within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. JJ averages 6.9 yards per attempt and SW 5.9 yards. JJ had 0 picks and 2 TD's from 48 attempts and SW already has 1 pick and 0 TD's from 22 attempts.

Stat- I love statistics and all, however they aren't all equal. SW threw a int in the end zone. The field is significantly shorter here so a 10yd pass from the 10 yd line is not the same as a 10 yd pass from midfield. From a pure #'s standpoint 10yds is 10yds, but from a decision making standpoint they are completely different. How many int's has JJ thrown within the redzone? I can't recall any. Due to this, I actually don't agree with you. I think SW managed the offense significantly better than JJ. The midrange post to Duke that was dropped was right on the money without hesitation. Also, White checked down on a minimum of 4 plays to hit underneath receivers (mostly RB's) bc it appeared nothing was open downfield. We've watched JJ for 3 games and again, I am having difficulty thinking of 4 examples where he actually went thru progressions.

We all love your assessment around here, but give us your opinion (not based on statistics which can be skewed such as the above examples). Who do you feel gives us a better chance to win?

You feel better because White's interception occurred in the redzone? I don't see how that is better.

I not talking about feelings. I'm talking about comparing apples to apples. 6 int's hitting open defenders b/w the 20's is a lot different then a RFr mistake throwing across the body in a short field. Take feelings out of it.

Throwing an interception in the redzone is worse than throwing one in the middle of the field. It directly costs us points. That is what I was insinuating. That is if you are comparing one interception to another; I understand JJ has thrown 6.