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Jon Solomon: Why Can't Auburn Win Consistently?


RunInRed

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Fair analysis, some good points ... a decent read.

What happened to Auburn in 2015 and why can't it be a consistent winner?

One of the more perplexing questions this college football season is what went wrong for Auburn. The Tigers were a trendy preseason College Football Playoff pick but enter the Iron Bowl this week with a 6-5 record and as a 13-point underdog at home against rival Alabama.

So what exactly happened?

Part of the answer is related to a bigger question: Why can't this program become a consistent winner? The highs are very high and the lows are very low at Auburn.

In the past six years, Auburn has played for the national championship twice (winning one) yet has a 25-22 overall SEC record. Who goes from a national title to a winless SEC season within two years? Who barely loses in the national title game and two years later finds itself on the verge of a two-win SEC season? Auburn, that's who. But why?

“I think it's important today to have some consistency with your coaching staff,” Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs said. “Other than that, I don't know if I could put my finger on that. If I could, we would all be great prognosticators.”

History is repeating itself in the Iron Bowl rivalry. When Alabama is rolling, it's hard for Auburn to get consistent footing.

During Bear Bryant's best extended stretch at Alabama from 1971-80, he won 89 percent of his games while Auburn won 62 percent.

There was a four-year period at that time when the Tigers' win totals bounced all over the place, from 10 to six to 10 to four.

Fast forward to today. Nick Saban's current run of sustained success with the Crimson Tide started in 2008. He has won 89 percent of his games since, compared to 63 percent for Auburn, which has four last-place SEC West finishes and two SEC championships during that period.

This year's Tigers under Gus Malzahn aren't in drastic shape like Gene Chizik's final season of 2012. Four of Auburn's five losses are by eight points or less. But Malzahn appears to be the SEC West coach who will finish last while making at least $4 million a year.

“I'm disappointed,” Jacobs said. “I think we all are because expectations were so high coming into the season. The thing that's encouraging is the coaches haven't given up on the players and the players haven't given up on the coaches. When you start losing games at the middle of the year by wide margins, that gives you concerns. They're still fighting. In 2012, I didn't see that.”

Since being ranked No. 3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings on Nov. 8, 2014, the Tigers have lost eight of 10 SEC games. Alabama enters the Iron Bowl with at least four more wins than Alabama for the fourth time in the past eight years, spanning the tenures of Malzahn, Chizik and Tommy Tuberville. There's one common denominator: Saban.

“I think there's a larger structure of managing the whole process around a players' performance in Tuscaloosa,” said Jack Crowe, a former Auburn assistant who is now a commentator for Auburn Undercover and closely follows the Tigers' program. “When that pipeline of players dries up, there's not people coming behind you to keep you going. You go from A back to C and then you have to bring it back up to A. I still think it's a really good coaching staff (at Auburn). I think the players have played hard and have had to deal with some enormous miscalculations.”

In its history, Auburn has posted consecutive 10-win seasons just once -- 1988-89 under Pat Dye. Among SEC programs, only Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt have had fewer back-to-back 10-win seasons than Auburn.

“Ain't nobody in the country like Alabama right now,” Dye said. “It's all about recruiting. We're good enough to play with Alabama right now if we were good enough at quarterback. Ole Miss beat Alabama with a good quarterback and big plays. When we beat Alabama (in recent years), it's with big plays and a quarterback.”

With that in mind, here's a cheat sheet on what went wrong for Auburn in 2015:

Jeremy Johnson struck out at quarterback: This issue has been well documented. In the preseason, Malzahn talked up Johnson as a legitimate SEC starter and the media bought in with premature Heisman Trophy buzz. Instead, Johnson got benched after six interceptions in Auburn's first three games. Even since Johnson returned to the field, the coaches don't trust him to throw the ball downfield given his turnover woes.

When Malzahn's offenses thrive, they have a dangerous running option at quarterback. Cam Newton and Nick Marshall won SEC titles in their first years as junior college transfers using that style. “Johnson is certainly a big part of what went wrong,” Crowe said.

Where's the running game and explosive plays? Auburn averages 4.47 yards per carry (63rd in the country), down from 5.5 in 2014 and 6.3 in 2013. This will likely be the first year since 2011 that a Malzahn offense gains fewer than 5 yards a carry. Just like in 2011, this marks Malzahn's third straight year back in the SEC. Are defenses catching up?

“I think Gus has been a step ahead in some ways,” Crowe said. “I think Gus can continue to evolve. I don't think this is Gus lacking the ability to do that. The problem now is how the system matches up to the players. You've got a system with no tight end that historically needs one, and you've got a system that historically uses zone read as a principle piece and they don't even run it, or if they do, I don't recognize it. Sometimes you don't realize how delicate the pieces are to fit together and they can crack if the assumptions aren't right.”

Lately, junior college transfer Jovon Robinson has run well, including eight carries for 76 yards in the first half against Georgia. Robinson only had four rushes in the second half. Malzahn didn't explain why Robinson's carries went down. He ran for 99 yards on 15 carries last week against Idaho.

Will Muschamp wasn't a savior: The image of LSU's Leonard Fournette swatting away Auburn would-be tacklers like flies summed up the Tigers' defense early this season. Star pass rusher Carl Lawson missed six games due to a hip injury and his return has helped the Tigers improve in recent weeks. Still, it doesn't explain everything. Malzahn raised the expectations before the season by calling new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp “the best defensive mind in all of football, not just college football.”

There was an assumption Auburn would automatically be better just because Muschamp arrived. Muschamp didn't suddenly become dumb. He's a proven coach with top-10 defenses during 10 of his first 12 years in college. Still, this year's Tigers rank 62nd in yards per play allowed (5.5). It's their best national ranking in this category since 2010, but probably not what Auburn had in mind after spending $1.6 million on Muschamp. Auburn is on its fourth defensive coordinator in five years.

“You need consistent coaching staff stability to get your program implemented, but you don't wait for consistency to concede expectations,” Jacobs said. “You can't do it in a three-year period or a four-year period of time. You need six or seven years to get a program established. With people's appetite for success, sometimes you're not willing to get your entire program in place.

“Some teams have consistently won 10 games in this league and they haven't played for a championship and their fans are ready to get rid of you. Some schools have played for national championships, but it hasn't been recently enough. You see the same thing I do. Wow. This entire league has really increased the competitiveness.”

D'haquille Williams got kicked off the team: The Tigers' season started with Williams, their best wide receiver, getting suspended briefly in August. By October, Williams was dismissed after he was involved in a bar fight, leaving Auburn with virtually no vertical receiving threats.

The episode with Williams, a junior college signee in 2014, further illustrated the risks Auburn has taken by signing so many juco players. Some pan out. Others don't. In Malzahn's three years as head coach, the Tigers have signed 14 juco players (accounting for 18 percent of his signees). Only two jucos are currently listed as starters. Alabama signed six jucos from 2013-15.

“When you go to junior college crazy, It breaks the cycle,” Crowe said. “I'm not saying don't do it, but if a guy you're counting on doesn't work, you're in a hole. Alabama does foundational recruiting. There's a difference between Alabama and everybody, not just Auburn. That's a credit to Nick. Like Coach Bryant, Nick organizationally creates a different organization.”

Jacobs said he is pleased with Auburn's balance with juco players. “Junior college players have two more years under their belts and you know more about them from a competitive standpoint and character standpoint,” Jacobs said.

Counting too much on freshmen: Quick, name the only three schools with five straight top-10 recruiting classes. That would be Alabama, Florida State and Auburn. Based on recruiting stars, the Tigers are doing well. Unlike Alabama, which has created a pipeline of talent for many years, Auburn needs some elite freshmen to be contributors earlier. That's the case at many schools.

Take, for example, Auburn five-star defensive end Byron Cowart, who signed last February as the nation's No. 1 player by at least one recruiting service. Auburn tried to get Cowart on an accelerated plan for this season. Early in the year, Cowart expressed frustration about the expectations in a series of tweets and later apologized. By contrast, Alabama sophomore defensive end Da'Shawn Hand, who was the No. 1 recruit two years ago, is playing mop-up snaps because he's not needed yet.

“When you listen to those guys (at Alabama) talk, they're the most highly programmed to what their role is at their school,” Crowe said. “That's a good thing. That's not a negative thing. Unlike Auburn trying to get Cowart ready to play, you don't force anybody onto the field at Alabama. You earn your time.”

This week, It's Alabama's time to again pick its score at the Iron Bowl. This is the life of Auburn, where the highs are really high, the lows are really low, and there's not much in between.

http://www.cbssports...so-inconsistent

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The one thing thing that we need is patience. It's hard to do in this time but I fully believe Gus is capable of winning and doing it consistently. He's not a man with a long history in college football. Only 4 years as a head coach in college so he's learning on the job as it were. Things should pick up in 2016 for us and keep moving forward from there.

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So if Auburn supposedly knows this why are we still doing it this way?

He left out one key and major component of the updyke mafia..cheating and putting their paid supporters in positions of power.

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12th all time in top 25 finishes, but there isn't much between the highs and lows? Lately, it's been a killer roller coaster, but starting 10 years back and going to the start of the program it hasn't. We've had downs, everyone has. Auburn has been consistently good for the most part though.

Somebody answer this:

What is Gus's defensive philosophy?

Out score them lol
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Problem with this article is that AU has in fact been a consistent winner. Ranked in the top 20 in all time wins, win percentage and so on. AU is one of the most successful major D1 programs in existence and has been for a good long while. Solomon (and some AU fans) make the mistake of equating the ups and downs of recent history -- still mostly up with the program's first consensus national championship, a runner up national championship finish and two outright SEC championships since 2010 -- with some issue of consistency that is basically just a figment of the mind. No, AU has not had bammer level success. Unless and until AU decides to do things the way bammer does them -- something I hope to never see because there are things more important than winning -- AU nor any other D1 team will or even can.

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What are you talking about? The article was spot on. Only two consecutive 10 win seasons since 1980. And while everyone accuses bama of cheating, nothing has been proven and others say the same about AU. What I took from the article is that there is something within the program that prevents it from becoming a consistent challenger for titles. Until AU figures out the problem, it will continue the roller coaster ride

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It was pretty obvious....we aren't recruiting like the updykes. Yeah we have had a few top 10 years but we don't consistently get the top payers that creates depth. We are working on it but it takes time. Basically a new line be offense. New d scheme. Wall la. We get this years results when you add in the injuries.

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The answer is Men's Warehouse of Tuscaloosa and Locklear Chrysler Jeep Dodge RAM. Pretty clear when everyone chooses Bama over Auburn as a "bidness decision". Think they're going to Bama because of the NFL? You can to the NFL through almost any college. Terrell Owens (for example) went to UT-Chattanooga for goodness sake.

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Auburn's biggest problem is they don't develop players. Dan Mullen doesn't get top 10 recruiting classes but look what they do with what they have. I believe they only had seven starters returning and they have beaten us two straight and three of the last four.

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The answer is Men's Warehouse of Tuscaloosa and Locklear Chrysler Jeep Dodge RAM. Pretty clear when everyone chooses Bama over Auburn as a "bidness decision". Think they're going to Bama because of the NFL? You can to the NFL through almost any college. Terrell Owens (for example) went to UT-Chattanooga for goodness sake.

THIS. uat cheats. Anyone that denies this fact is a moron. Carry on...
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The whole back to back 10 win season thing is a bit of a misnomer to me anyway. It hasn't been long that their were only 11 regular season games and before tbat 10 so you would have to get one loss and undefeated seasons to get 10 wins. Auburn is one of the top 15 all time winnigest programs so there obviously has been some consistentcy.

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^ maybe but in the last decade or so its been 12 game seasons and you'd think a program of Auburn's percieved caliber should be winning 10+ more in b2b seasons based on recruiting classes and 2 national title appearances while winning one of those.

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^ maybe but in the last decade or so its been 12 game seasons and you'd think a program of Auburn's percieved caliber should be winning 10+ more in b2b seasons based on recruiting classes and 2 national title appearances while winning one of those.

Agreed. '05 team shoulda won 10 and we would have had 3 straight.
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^If only the "12 games every year" format had started a year early. Then again, we may not have beaten both GA and AL if we had to play the full season without a bye. Considering the injuries, that could've been why we melted down against GA in '06. So in that case, if only they had started playing the IB Thanksgiving weekend two years early.

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I don't think most fans expect to be in the National Championship game every year. What most of can't understand is why AU turns into Vandy during the bad seasons. A 7 and 5 season seems to be a reasonable "bad" season here. No way should AU go a whole season without winning an SEC home game.

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