Breakdown of the Vertical Pass-Offense

[StatTiger 3,188]

How Auburn's pass-offense performs beyond 10-yards of the LOS will play a factor in the outcome of the 2015 Iron Bowl. With this in mind, here are the recent production of the Auburn pass-offense (vertical) against Alabama.

2010: 35% of the pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of LOS with a pass-efficiency rating of 318.2

2011: 15% for a rating of 8.7

2012: 53% for a rating of 71.3

2013: 44% for a rating of 224.7

2014: 42% for a rating of 235.1

Jeremy Johnson currently has a passer-rating of 93.5 throwing beyond 10-yards of the LOS but has improved to 139.3 during his last 3 starts. Should Sean White start, he currently has a passer-rating of 143.3, throwing beyond 10-yards of the LOS.

The play...

On this play Auburn has a 1st down at their own 19-yard line and will run a deep pass to Ricardo Louis. Auburn is in a 3-WR set and the Idaho defense is in a cover-2. At the snap, Jeremy Johnson notices the CB on Tony Stevens is blitzing off the edge to play the run. Because Auburn typically runs on 1st down, throwing deep early in the count is opportunistic. Because the boundary corner is blitzing, Johnson knows the safety over top has to roll over to cover Stevens.

Melvin Ray runs a deep crossing route and is covered by the remaining safety, which leaves Ricardo Louis 1 on 1 with the field corner. Louis drives the field corner straight up the field before cutting inside of him on a deep post route. This allows Johnson to throw to a space deep down field and for Louis to run under the incoming pass. Johnson has a good pocket to step into his throw, launching the ball 57-yards through the air. Louis runs under the ball, positioning his body to shield the defender away.

Ricardo Louis hauls in the pass for a 56-yard gain and an Auburn first down. Auburn will take some deep shots against Alabama this Saturday. It will be important they come on first down rather than 3rd down and for the majority of them to be post routes rather than fly-patterns, where the side line becomes an extra defender. It is also important to note that Johnson is more likely to throw a pick within 11-20 yards of the LOS and less likely to throw one beyond 20-yards of the LOS.

[FoundationEagle 637]

"is more likely to throw a pick within 11-20 yards of the LOS and less likely to throw one beyond 20-yards of the LOS"

Do you have the actual numbers on this? It's seems like almost all of his INTs came in the 10-15 yard range and a few of them were misreads on either the LB dropping or safety coming up in coverage.

[StatTiger 3,188]

"is more likely to throw a pick within 11-20 yards of the LOS and less likely to throw one beyond 20-yards of the LOS"

Do you have the actual numbers on this? It's seems like almost all of his INTs came in the 10-15 yard range and a few of them were misreads on either the LB dropping or safety coming up in coverage.

24 atts (11-20 yard range) 4 picks or 1 every 6.0 attempts

15 atts (21-up range) 2 picks or 1 every 7.5 attempts

[AURex 1,978]

In other words, he odds of interception are not so good everywhere?

[StatTiger 3,188]

In other words, he odds of interception are not so good everywhere?

Actually.... 6 picks in first 3 starts and 1 in his last 3 starts.

[AU64 10,122]

During the past 3 games it seems there not that many passes more than 11 yards beyond the LOS...though technically some were in the 10-15 range perhaps.

There were not many INTs on the long passes...but also not many completions either....since the coaches are pretty much keeping the game within 15 yards of the LOS for JJ.

JMO but I don't consider anything that happened in the Idaho game as indicative of anything.

And this week I expect the stats from earlier in the season are not going to be very predictive....and hope AU has an entire new game plan for bama.