Sign in to follow this  
  • entries
  • comments
  • views

Matchup: Auburn Defense against FSU offense

Sign in to follow this  


Read all of my Auburn Realist Posts Here!

Here is the whole post!

I figured I would get the word out on what I predict for the National Championship. Otherwise, it might go down like the Iron Bowl did. Between my birthday, fishing tournaments, and Thanksgiving, I ran out of time and didn't make a prediction. That's ok. I would have screwed it all up anyway, though I at least would have gotten the winner right.

Let's get going, show we. Let's discuss the teams, overall, and then move to FSU offense vs Auburn defense.

I have to say, the first place to start is with FSU. I think we are all impressed with Famous Jameis. I didn't quite buy him for Heisman, but that's ok. We will settle that in the follow up to my first post: Best5Zach's Bones to Pick with 2013 College Football Awards.

To me, Florida State falls in the same boat as Ohio State. Who did they play? Look. I know everyone will point to the fact that they are indeed undefeated and didn't play a close game all year. I don't care about any of that. The fact is, the ACC is terrible. TERRIBLE. There are only two games on the schedule that I can give any credence to. The first is obvious the win at Clemson. Yes. They drilled Clemson. But, Clemson this year is the same Clemson we saw last year. And the year before. Not only will they loose one of their only big games, they will lay an absolute egg once a year. And it was against FSU. Again, I understand that they beat them 51-14 in Clemson. But, if I had 6 straight weeks of cupcakes before my first REAL game, I bet I could game plan a win too. I mean, look at their schedule for the first 6 weeks:

  • Pittsburgh(6-6)
  • Off
  • Nevada(4-8)
  • Bethune-Cookman(10-3)
  • Boston College(7-5)
  • Maryland(7-5)

But. Ok. So they win big in "Death Valley". What about the other game I alluded to? Florida. Yes. I understand that Florida was the punching bag for the SEC (and everyone else, it seems). Yet, Florida still has a good defense which held them to their season low of 37 a stretch where they had scored 59, 59, and 80 points in respective weeks. I think it's worth pointing out that Jameis Winston and his starters were NOT out of the game after the first half, as everyone seems to think they had done for every single game. Yeah yeah. "ONLY 37 points" isn't a great line and I know that. But it does show that their production was cut in half simply playing an SEC-Caliber defense. And that Florida team has NO offense. None.

I understand that it's hard to pick apart a team that doesn't seem to have any weakness. They are 1st in the nation for points against and 2nd in points for. That's tough. Double tough. But, again, statistics are as Mark Twain said: "There are lies. Damn lies. And statistics." To me, you can't know a single thing about a team until they have been through adversity. I said that same thing in my Stone Cold Pick of the Week of the YEAR in taking Michigan State over Ohio State. You don't know how to win until you lose. And you can't fight against adversity and come from behind if you've never been knocked on your rump. The only exception to this is, if this FSU team is the best the world has ever seen, and I don't think they are.

FSU, behind Winston, has an extremely potent passing attack. The Heisman winner has 38 TDs and 3820 yards. That's incredible. He does have 10 picks, but I don't put much stock in that considering the pure volume of passes his has thrown. If had thrown multiple picks against Florida, I might say there was some leverage there that he struggles against good defense, but he only threw a single pick.

Their running game is entirely complimentary though it may appear balanced on the surface. They have a back-by-committee system where they have 4 different players with over 70 carries and 400 combined carries for around 2500 yards. The TD total for the 4 is almost equal to the passing TD total that Winston has, making it appear that they might be balanced. Yet, it's worth noticing that many of these TDs spring from very long runs against inferior opponents. Just take a look at their lead rusher, Freeman. Of his 13 TD runs, 4 came from runs over 30 yards. Many of the rest came in times killing drives to put the game away.

All I can say about this is, the Great Bear Bryant said: "There are three things that can happen when you throw the ball and 2 of them are bad."

Since this is THE GAME, we will dedicate a post per phase of the game.

Auburn's Defense vs FSU Offense

We all know Auburn gives up a ton of yards. To an extent, they give up a ton of points too. They give up 24 points per game and haven't shut out anyone. Not Western Carolina. Not even Florida Atlantic. They only kept two teams out of the endzone all year, Arkansas State and Western Carolina. Is that a concern? How could it not be. There doesn't even seem to be a rhyme or reason to it. Is it first half or second? Is it running or passing? It seems to be something different every week, whether it's a 4th quarter meltdown or a hemorrhage against the pass. Additionally, turnovers haven't been as plentiful as the year started out to look.

There is only one certainty in defense: when the game is on the line, the defense absolutely shuts a team down. Now, it may be a game winning drive or even a game winning play (as per UGA) that they stuff, but they manage to do it. It's the darnedest thing, really. Can't stop Manziel all game, yet you get two sacks in the last 2 minutes? Alabama's offense was clicking every single play in the second half but the defense manages to stop a 4th and 1?

In my untrained eye, it seems that the defense has not played equally on all 3 levels. Different games have shown completely different gameplay for the 3 levels of defense that I can't explain. Did we think that James Franklin was going to throw for a lot of yards? Sure. But, receivers inexplicably found themselves wide open. Early in the year, it was reversed. The secondary played well while there was zero pass rush. LB play has been spotty at best, but they have played as well as expected when it mattered and atrocious at other times. I attribute a lot of this to the general youth of the program and the week in/week out preparation against good and versatile offenses in the SEC.

FSU hasn't seen a defensive front like they will see against Auburn. While the stats aren't overwhelming in terms of sacks, hurries, and knockdowns, it was obvious down the stretch that offenses were scheming against the D-line by getting the ball out of the hands of the QB quickly, especially early in the game. The dink and dump passing game has been a huge area of concern early in games. Washington State was destroying the defense in the opener with the short pass game. Yet, for all the yards given up, the tactic didn't win any games because teams got down in score and had to open things up to come back, spelling their doom. Only Georgia's decision to throw short to Gurley or slants and skinny seams to slot receivers almost won the day in Jordan-Hare. I give Mike Bobo a ton of credit for his halftime adjustments in that game. Ultimately, they were down too much to kill the game. Also, the immaculate deflection didn't hurt.

Where am I going with that? FSU will find success. I have no doubt that they will score points. However, they will not be able to stop the Auburn offense and will find themselves rapidly running less and less and throwing vertically more and more. Benjamin will come down with a lot of these balls. The difference is, for every 3rd and long that may for for a big completion, one won't and the ball will get handed back to the Auburn offense. If you sprinkle in a turnover or two, this game could swing way out to Auburn's favor. I still believe that Auburn's defense will give up points in every single quarter. The difference will be in the 4th quarter when Winston is running for his life and tossing bullets down field. All it will take is 2 or 3 of these to be errant and the game will be over.

Do I see Auburn's defensive line dominating the game? No. Winston can run well and that does present a major problem. Auburn played 2 terrific dual threat QBs this year. Franking hurt Auburn with his running at times, but never broke the game open. Yet, he didn't take any huge sacks that truly hurt him. Manziel, on the other hand, took huge losses at times that ultimately spelled doom for TAMU. The question Winston will have to answer is, can he settle for sustaining drives and not breaking the game open? Will he know when to get down? Or will he try to live up to his billing and force his run game? I think he will find the endzone with his feet, but I do not see a Vince Young moment. I do see sacks, however.

The LB play will be the biggest concern. Will they stay at home? If Winston can step up in the pocket and run, Auburn will lose this game. They do a credible job to sealing the outside well as it is. If the LBs get out of position as they have in the past against Murray, Auburn is in trouble. Additionally, if they cannot make tackles at the point of attack, as they have shown many times this year, FSU's run game could run amuck. If McKinzy, in particular, can use this month to really understand the scheme of the passing game, Auburn will be fine.

Another big concern will be the overall fitness of the two teams. Russell has proven to know exactly how to get kids in shape and keep them healthy. All you have to do is point to the relative lack of injuries experienced by this team. While I am certainly talking about keeping these kids in peak condition over the holidays, I also point out that FSU's starters haven't played a whole game yet. There is simply no shape like game shape. And how can this team, who admittedly hasn't played starters past the half but a handful of times, know about game shape and gutting it out in the 4th? To me, this is perhaps the biggest mismatch of the day and it isn't just FSU offense vs Auburn's defense. While I disagreed completely with playing Tre Mason into the last drive of the game in the SEC championship, he has proven that he can and will HAPPILY take 40++ carries. While I think Auburn wins this game is it sits, its hard to imagine that FSU could ever put the game away against Dismukes and Co with a backfield that can and will run all game long.

Ok. So we aren't talking about the offense, right? How does this translate to defense? Well, Auburn's D-line has shined in the 4th quarter. Why? Because they are extremely deep and talented. FSU's offensive line will have to do something it hasn't done all a whole game. On the flip side of the line, Auburn will be doing exactly what it has done all year and proven to be quite good at: subbing regularly and coming on super strong in the 4th.

Going back to what we were saying early about getting the ball out of Winston's hands early. The question will be, will they do it early and will they stick to it if they get down? My hunch tells me they will start out dink and dunking early. But when the Auburn offense scores on every drive, the throws will get longer and the desperation will get higher. 3 down turns to 10. Then 17. Then it rolls and rolls just like Missouri saw. Even worse will be if FSU comes out slinging early and gets shut down a few times in the first half.

The line? After allowing 14 points per quarter for the first 2 quarters and 10 in the 3rd, Auburn shuts out FSU in the 4th to hold them to 38. In particular, the throws get deeper down the field and Winston has to sit in the pocket more. The fresh Auburn D-line takes over and makes FSU pay.

FSU 38 Points. Auburn has 5 sacks and 1 turnover plus 2 turnovers on downs

Sign in to follow this  

1 Comment

Recommended Comments

Peggy omega watches gazed uggs on sale at madrid jersey him polo ralph lauren with kate spade kindling kobe 9 high eyes. north face “You discount oakley sunglasses are a uggs outlet soldier’s pandora charms son,” fivefingers she north face jackets said, lebron 11 “and detroit lions jerseys the kobe ix grandson fitflops uk of tiffany a burberry sale soldier, mac makeup uk and the patriots jersey great-grandson flip flops of a bcbg max soldier; jets jersey it’s louis vuitton in north face outlet your dolphins jersey blood; mizuno running you michael kors handbags can’t air jordan pas cher help sunglasses outlet it—it’s hermes uk in nike shoes my ray ban uk blood michael kors handbags too, michael kors Arthur! louboutin I give fitflop you adidas uk my marc jacobs solemn sac chanel word ugg boots clearance of mac make up honour lebron 11 that true religion if insanity workout the guess factory French timberland uk or kobe 9 elite Germans pandora came christian louboutin over titans jersey to hogan invade jerseys this buffalo bills jerseys land, chelsea jersey I’d—” san francisco 49ers jersey Peggy nike mercurial seized nike air force the james shoes ruler ray ban sunglasses and air jordan waved ralph lauren outlet it jordan pas cher in real madrid jersey 2015 the gucci handbags air with raiders jersey a gesture flip flops of cheap oakley sunglasses fiercest kobe x determination—“I’d gucci belts fight them! There! fit flop I’d lunette ray ban pas cher shoot cheap nfl jerseys at kobe 9 them; burberry I’d wedding dresses go new balance out nike roshe and spike the kobe shoes guns; cheap sunglasses I’d—I’d ray ban sunglasses climb insanity on adidas shoes the louboutin pas cher house-tops and packers jersey throw nike free stones marc jacobs uk at nike shoes them. You chicago blackhawks jersey needn’t adidas superstar laugh, mulberry I tell toms shoes you chargers jersey I kobe 8 should michael kors outlet online be puma outlet terrible! san francisco 49ers jerseys I polo ralph lauren outlet feel jimmy choo outlet as tory burch if dre beats I uggs outlet could face tommy hilfiger uk a whole beats by dr dre regiment myself. chanel handbags The yoga pants spirit—the spirit tory burch outlet online of tods shoes my nike free run ancestors asics is ralph lauren in christian louboutin shoes my flip or flop breast, chanel Arthur ny giants jersey Reginald, guess canada and m a c cosmetics woe michael kors pas cher betide ray ban that new balance uk enemy birkin bag who flip flop tries to wrest from rolex replica me jordan my tommy hilfiger native nike uk land!” Peggy mac make up went true religion uk off mac cosmetics uk into adidas a shriek of laughter, kate spade uk in which nike blazer Arthur lunette oakley pas cher joined, polo ralph lauren outlet until adidas shoes the seahawks jerseys sound air jordans of gucci outlet the ferragamo merry mac cosmetics peals arizona cardinals jersey reached ralph lauren outlet online Mrs fit flop Asplin’s timberland boots ears fitflops as lunette oakley she gucci belts lay lebron shoes wearily on nike pas cher her pillow, burberry factory outlet and oakley sunglasses cheap brought love bracelet a bottes ugg pas cher smile to michael kors handbags her converse sale pale eagles jerseys face. abercrombie and fitch “Bless tiffany the kevin durant shoes dears! mizuno running shoes How jimmy choo happy new balance they timberland are!” fake oakleys she cheap jordans murmured oakland raiders jersey to oakley store herself; falcons jersey nor michael kors even marc jacobs suspected louboutin shoes that eagles jersey it ray ban sunglasses was blackhawks jersey a wholesale asics gel lyte massacre of tory burch outlet foreign gucci uk nations new balance football boots which salomon boots had been nike free the nike roshe run cause dolce gabbana of this ed hardy gleeful louboutin shoes uk outburst.Arthur jordan uk left mercurial superfly the ugg boots vicarage cheap oakley on 49ers jersey Tuesday michael kors outlet online sale evening, air max seemingly tory burch outlet online much mont blanc refreshed cheap jerseys by kobe 10 the guess outlet few kobe 9 shoes days’ nike store change, cartier though gucci bags he cartier love bracelet still tiffany jewelry complained new york giants jerseys of broncos jersey his hollister clothing head, and chanel bag pressed his hand seahawks jersey over denver broncos jersey his eyes flops from mac makeup time basketball shoes to replica rolex time chiefs jersey as fendi handbags though pandora bijoux in prada uk pain. kobe bryant shoes The toms outlet parting michael kors from fit flops Peggy green bay packers jerseys was more black converse cheerful puma shoes than might swarovski bijoux have cartier love been expected, louis vuitton uk for spurs jersey in michael kors outlet canada a few fitflop more bulls jersey weeks Christmas nike mercurial superfly would be red bottom shoes at adidas uk hand, james shoes when, as vikings jerseys he himself expressed it, burberry outlet online he hoped adidas running shoes to uggs return hollister with browns jerseys blushing tommy hilfiger honours stuart weitzman thick beats by dre upon michael kors him. adidas store Peggy warriors jersey mentally redskins jersey expended her miami heat jersey whole ray ban outlet ten minnesota vikings jerseys pounds tennessee titans jersey in a cheap gucci present cheap oakley sunglasses for true religion outlet the miami dolphins jersey dear mac cosmetics uk handsome fellow, tommy hilfiger outlet and jordan retro held heat jersey her head coco chanel high seahawks jerseys for sale in hogan outlet the tod's consciousness swarovski of new orleans saints jerseys owning a mac makeup brother carolina panthers jersey who cheap oakley sunglasses was weitzman shoes destined ugg uk to hermes birkin be michael kors Commander-in-Chief of the oakley sunglasses cheap British polo outlet forces in burberry outlet online the ugg boots uk years to clippers jersey come.“What adidas soccer in uggs all louboutin uk the oakley sunglasses world possessed mac makeup you toms shoes uk to true religion play north face uk such ugg pas cher a burberry outlet mad fendi trick?” rolex watch he rolex watches queried barcelona jersey bluntly. stuart weitzman shoes “It adidas outlet makes bottes ugg me true religion outlet ill tod's shoes to michael kors think dolce and gabbana of buccaneers jerseys it. jordans Rushing off manchester united jersey to London oakley vault on oakley pas cher a oakley glasses wet, ugg foggy night, beats by dre never even coach outlet waiting timberland uk to louboutin outlet inquire chanel uk if five finger shoes there converse shoes was gucci outlet a return ugg boots train, or uggs outlet online to oakley outlet count mizuno if toms shoes you mac makeup uk had lululemon uk enough boots on sale money michael kors canada to texans jerseys see christian louboutin uk you ray ban through! saints jerseys Goodness only manchester united jersey 2015 2016 knows what might adidas zx flux have air max uk happened! lebron shoes You rolex watches for sale are careless michael kors enough in hermes belt an salomon shoes ordinary jordan way, montre femme but michael kors I tiffany and co must rolex replica watches say ralph lauren outlet I christian louboutin shoes gave you golden state warriors jersey credit seattle seahawks jerseys for oakley sunglasses cheap more baltimore ravens jersey sense replica watches than tory burch outlet that.”“Yes, there gucci belt is. true religion jeans I nike mercurial could gucci shoes not dansko shoes have mac uk borne ferragamo shoes it, jaguars jersey when jordan 11 I oakley sunglasses had ferragamo been raiders jerseys trying hermes handbags so mulberry uk hard mizuno to beats headphones help michael kors outlet you. uggs outlet And air max 90 it gucci handbags would boston celtics jersey not nike kobe 9 have converse uk been jerseys from china only fitflops the fitflop first ray ban sunglasses outlet few adidas zx minutes. giants jersey Every oakley sunglasses wholesale time north face outlet online when oakley sunglasses you adidas originals were gucci shoes quiet steelers jerseys and ugg soldes depressed, oakley vault when oakley sunglasses outlet you nike looked gucci outlet online at lebron shoes your adidas specimens vans outlet through cardinals jersey your air jordan little gucci handbags old prada handbags glass oakley uk and lebron 10 sighed, colts jerseys and rams jersey pitched hilfiger uk it away, pandora uk as lebron 12 I’ve 49ers jerseys seen ray ban sunglasses you do true religion jeans scores cowboys jerseys and flip flops scores gucci shoes of times, lebron 11 I timberland should michael kors outlet online have nike huarache felt bears jersey that mac make up it adidas trainers was lululemon my nike blazer pas cher fault, michael kors outlet and been michael kors outlet online in bills jerseys the united jersey depths new york knicks jersey of pittsburgh steelers jerseys misery. guess shoes No, michael kors outlet no, new balance football I’m louboutin sorry lebron 12 to lebron 10 the fitflops uk depths burberry uk of oakley my new balance 574 heart lakers jersey that michael kors uk I air jordan scared vans shoes dear reebok shoes Mrs michael kors uk Asplin lebron james shoes and philadelphia eagles jersey the Balenciaga rest, guess factory but ugg boots clearance it michael kors handbags is polo ralph lauren a new balance pas cher matter michael kors outlet of dallas cowboys jersey acute satisfaction nike outlet to tiffany and co me converse trainers to rolex watches know hollister that Nike Jordan your mac uk chance true religion outlet has nba jerseys in jordan shoes no way been cheap oakley sunglasses hindered wedding dresses uk by lebron 12 your levi's jeans confidence dansko outlet in lebron james shoes me!” scarpe hogan and ferragamo belts Peggy put mac cosmetics her uggs on sale head gucci watches on michael kors one dallas cowboys jerseys side, flip flops uk and cowboys jersey coughed nike free 5.0 in beats solo a steelers jersey faint insanity workout and cartier watches ladylike jeremy scott adidas manner, dr dre beats which cheap basketball shoes brought cleveland cavaliers jersey the panthers jersey twinkle uggs back lions jersey into eyeglasses online Robert’s michael kors outlet online sale eyes.

burberry outlet james shoes fit flops asics gel nike store houston texans jerseys ralph lauren polo gucci outlet michael kors michael kors outlet online thunder jersey replica watches guess clothing ugg outlet lululemon roshe run fitflops converse uk rolex new balance trainers omega watches designer handbags burberry handbags insanity workout uk nike air max 2015 fake rolex hollister uk gucci belt wedding dresses mont blanc pens air max 95 cleveland browns jerseys burberry louboutin air force christian louboutin

  • Share this comment

    Link to comment