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mcgufcm last won the day on November 19 2009

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About mcgufcm

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  1. If you're a Guard that can shoot, Auburn is a tough place to turn down right now. But I'd think UNC would be considered the favorite.
  2. I think this is a case where he might not even leave. He's thinking about it, and putting his name in the portal allows him to find out the type of response he'll receive. It's interesting because when the portal first started, coaches/schools were immediately removing guys from scholarship when they entered the portal. So guys were waiting to enter until after the semester started (to ensure that they could take classes on scholarship). This seems like a mix of compassionate response and continued recruiting. If we still want him, you let him put his name out there after the semester starts and use that time to recruit the kid back into the fold. If he gets a tepid response, he probably falls back into the group. Makes him more likely to stay for the long haul, I'm guessing. It's an interesting approach. Who knows if it's a good idea or not? All of this is uncharted water.
  3. Well you can’t agree with the officiating because the missed turnover isn’t even debatable. If you disagree that that’s a missed call, you’re basically saying “I don’t think the rules of basketball should restrict how you dribble.” So, remove the caveat. And no, they didn’t make the plays to win. They turned it over. The officials gave them a do over and then MAYBE they made the play.
  4. I am a UVA Law grad. So I have a reason to cheer for them. Great memories. Love that town. That said, I’ll be at the game on Monday cheering for Texas Tech. UVA lost that game, and I hope they get beat by 100. They don’t deserve to get any closer to that trophy. Walking out, I had a UVA guy ask me if I’d sell my Monday ticket. I told him I’d rather set it on fire than put another Virginia fan in the arena. So no. I’m not giving them props for losing and having the refs change the outcome, and I’m not graciously cheering for them.
  5. When I saw it leave his hands, I thought he might hit the side of the backboard. Your hope made you think storybook; my cynicism made me think it was worse than it was. To answer @Wahoo2003's question, Key can play. He's not a dynamic scorer and no threat from deep, but he's an athlete and a player. Lengthy kid with athleticism. I think he's going to play a good bit in this game because I don't think Jerome is going to feel comfortable in this game. I suspect Hunter and Key will be the wildcards for UVA, offensively especially.
  6. Defensively, I think Auburn matches up pretty well. Hunter and Key are the wildcards in that. I don't think Diakite or Salt are really going to control a game on the offensive end. Same for Kihei Clark. We have waves of harassing guards to throw at the ball and at Kyle Guy. That'll start with Harper and Brown. Typically, we like to have Bryce hound the ball in full court, but I expect us to switch the perimeter for the most part. Both guys are capable of chasing Guy around screens and back cuts and the like. Brown is a better defender, but Harper has incredible hands. He forces deflections and turnovers at an impressive rate. After those two, we'll add J'Von McCormick and give Samir Doughty some time on the point/shooting guards as well. In my view, Ty Jerome is the most important piece of UVA's offense because he's the only scorer they throw at you who is also a primary ballhandler. Clark isn't a scorer, and Guy isn't a ball handler (neither is Key). Samir Doughty took Tyler Herro completely out of the UK game. Between he and Malik Dunbar, we have about as good a pair to match Jerome as anyone in the country. Both have size and length, and both are physical defenders. That's why I think Hunter and Key, the two most athletic scorers UVA has, are the wildcards. This is where Okeke's absence is felt the most. He was our best defender, and he could've hounded either of these guys. Without him, we're looking at Danjel Purifoy, Dunbar, some Horace Spencer and possibly some Anfernee McLemore at times. All of those guys are athletic enough, but none of them are ideal matchups. If Hunter is in attack mode, this could be a big game for him. If he's playing passive like he has most of the tournament, that's a problem for UVA. We're going to do what we typically do defensively. We pressure the hell out of the ball. We front the post and double big-to-big. We block shots and force deflections. This game isn't just a battle of styles on the offensive end or in terms of pace. It's a battle of styles on the defensive end as well. Our defense can string together stops, but it is geared to create chaos. We're the best turnover ratio team in the country, one of the best steals ratio teams, one of the best blocks ratio teams. UVA, on the other hand, is a strong with the ball, no mistakes offense. We throw a bunch of bodies (even without Okeke, it's a true 9-man rotation) at people and press the entire game and pressure the ball every trip. If we're batting the ball around and causing chaos, that's a MASSIVE win for Auburn. If they're playing mistake free and protecting the ball every trip, that's a MASSIVE win for them. It's good to be a fascinating and fun game.
  7. The statement was made based on Chuma's wildly improved game over the course of the season. He was such a passive role player last year, coming off the bench and deferring to Harper, Brown, and Heron as scorers. It took him a major part of this season to step into a lead scoring role. Over the last month+ of the season (correlating to Auburn starting to win a bunch of games), his shot volume and efficiency increased. Over the last 14 games he played, Okeke's overall FG% declined (48.5%), but he was taking 41% of his shot attempts from 3. That's a massive number. Hunter is sitting at 27%, which is still a fairly large percentage for a forward. But with that volume, he was making 44.6% from the 3-point line. Those are crazy numbers for a Guard, much less a 6'8" stretch four. That's the type of volume shooting and accuracy that Hunter has never shown in his game. Part of that may be system, but I've seen him play a good bit. Hunter is more comfortable working in the mid-range, high post, and low post. He's a very, very good offensive player and scorer, but he's never shown the kind of shooting acumen that Okeke showed over the back portion of the season. Notably, Okeke's FT% also increased during that same time. Only his 2-point accuracy went down. Between the two, Hunter is the more accomplished scorer. Okeke is the better shooter.
  8. That's good info. UVA does an excellent job contesting 3s and making up ground, but it's the willingness (or lack thereof) of the shooter that makes that possible at times. That's why I think Dunbar, Purifoy, and Doughty have to be ready to roll in this one. Those are the guys that will be occupying the corner areas that the pack line tends to concede. If those guys are willing and ready, they will get good looks. I also think McLemore's top of the key 3 is going to be available following the screen action when he's on the floor. Horace Spencer needs to be convinced that an open three for him is a bad shot. Do. not. take. the bait. The one thing I think Auburn fans may be underselling is De'Andre Hunter. He's a lottery pick. Chuma was getting compared to Hunter because Hunter, in a lot of ways, was the more developed version of Chuma. I actually think Chuma passed him as an offensive player because he's a better shooter than Hunter has ever shown, but even so, Hunter is a guy who can take a game over on either end of the floor. He's been rocky on the offensive end in the tournament, which is why I don't think people are talking about him on that end, but he's really good. He's probably our toughest matchup on the defensive end because I really like Samir and Malik on Ty Jerome, who in my view is the centerpiece of UVA's offense even if he isn't the leading scorer. I think we matchup well, but Hunter is talented enough to really hurt us. It's gonna be a very good game, but I like our offensive style against this defense.
  9. But UNC doesn't score the same way we do. The answer to the question is, no. Before the tournament, they didn't really play any quality volume 3-point teams. Including the tournament, they have only played three teams that rate in the top 25 for 3-point attempts (volume 3s): Marshall, Purdue, and Duke. Marshall is just overmatched. Purdue and Duke both had success against this defense (scoring between 70-80 in regulation each time). For context, while UNC plays at our pace, they are 42nd nationally in 3-pt attempts (863), Auburn is 2nd (1173). Over our 39 games, that works out to around eight additional attempts per game. Their 3s account for around 35% of their shots. Our 3s account for 49% of our shots. That's a major difference in the way that each team likes to attack. Now, UVA did play against some accurate 3-pt shooting teams like VaTech and Gardner-Webb. Both of those were top 11 in terms of 3-pt %. Auburn is 31st. The job UVA did against VaTech, in particular, is really impressive. We'll have plenty of shots that we typically want to take. We have to make them at a fairly high clip. UVA's defense is great, but they are susceptible to quick ball movement or diagonal drives to set up the outside shot. Guys like Danjel and Malik and Samir are going to be very important in this one. Jared has the quickness to get by any UVA on-ball defender, whether that's Clark or Guy or Jerome, but that defense is going to collapse on him and invite the pass to the baseline corner. If those guys are ready, willing shooters, that corner 3 will be there. As for pace, UVA is going to take the air out of the ball. No question. But we can dictate pace by making shots and defensive rebounding. They take a fair number of 3s (about 39% of their total shots), which lead to long rebounds. If we can defensive rebound, our break is different than most teams. We don't typically break for 2s. We break and fan to the 3-pt line. It's fine to tell a college kid to "get back," but it's difficult to rewire the way you play to press the 3-pt line as a defender in transition. If we rebound well, I expect shooting opportunities to be there in transition.
  10. I'll be there. Flying up on Friday.
  11. They play seven guys. Clark, Guy, Jerome, Hunter (he’s the guy Chuma gets compared to... or did before Chuma started playing better), Diakite, Salt (who started most of the last two years), and Key. No one else plays minutes with any regularity. Hunter is a tough matchup, but he’s not PJ Washington. I think Bryce will do a good job harassing Clark and Guy. Jerome is the guy for them. He’s their best ballhandler, their best defender at creating turnovers, a quality shooter, and a tough matchup with his size. Samir and Malik will have their hands full with him. On the defensive side for us, it’s a pretty decent matchup though. Diakite isn’t a score first guy or a massive banger so it should be a little easier on Mac and Spence. Wiley has to match Salt’s physicality. Purifoy/Spence should be okay on Hunter, although he can be a load. Malik/Samir on Jerome. Clark/Guy fit our backcourt (unlike a UK/UNC backcourt). Key is an athlete with length. I expect him to play a lot against us. If Harp/J’Von can pierce their defense and we make threes, this is a winnable game. Tough game against a really good team. But winnable.
  12. I love it. Milk as much rest and prep as we can. It's not a crazy late start for our guys (7:40 where they are). Plus, for us, playing in prime time is still a big deal. Looking forward to it!
  13. Yeah, I’ll go ahead and say I’d be great with Auburn finding the next Clowney.
  14. I hope he can churn out average or above average shuttle times. If so, he's going to move rapidly up the board.