StatTiger

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StatTiger last won the day on November 28 2016

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  1. · Auburn currently has the 4th most efficient pass-offense on first down. · 28.5% of Auburn's pass attempts have come on first down, which is 127th nationally. This is a percentage normally associated with a triple-option styled offense. · Only Army, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech have a fewer percentage of passes on first down. · The national average is 38.5% · Comparing the ratio of pass attempts on 1st down to 3rd down, Auburn ranks 123rd nationally. · Gus Malzahn's offense at Auburn is 26-5 during games the Tigers pass for at least 80-yards on first down and 29-18 when held to under 50-yards passing on 1st down. · Among the 125 FBS teams that attempt at least 15 passes per game, Auburn is No. 8 nationally in producing pass plays of 30-yards or more. · One out of every four pass attempts on first down had netted a 25-yard gain or better for the Auburn offense, 18th nationally. · Auburn is No. 17 in yards per play on first down, averaging 7.1 yards per play. This is primarily on the success of passing on first down, where Auburn averages 12.8 yards per pass attempt. · Auburn's 12.8 yards per pass attempt on first down is No. 4 nationally. · During the four games leading up to LSU, Auburn averaged 142-yards passing on first down, an all time high for a Gus Malzahn-Auburn offense. Against LSU, Auburn attempted only 5 passes on first down for 10-yards. · Running the football 17 consecutive times on first down was offensive suicide, especially with the success Auburn had throwing on first down prior to the LSU game. War Eagle!
  2. Four offensive possessions into the LSU game, Auburn was up 20-0 with 232-yards in the book. Where did it go south? On the opening possession Auburn attempted passes on their first two 1st down plays of the game. From that point, Auburn would try only three more first down passes the remainder of the game. By possession four, Auburn attempted a first down pass to begin the possession. From that point, Auburn would call 17 consecutive run plays, which did not stop until after LSU took their initial lead of the game. With the threat of a passing game, Auburn averaged 5.2 yards per rush during the first-half. During the second-half, Auburn averaged 3.4 yards per rush, when it was more than obvious Auburn intended to run on every first down snap. Gus Malzahn admitted during his postgame press conference, LSU was rolling up a safety to stop the run during the second-half, yet allowed the continuation of all runs on first down. What happened to the philosophy of taking what the opponent gives you? Gus Malzahn said it himself during his post-game press conference. "We couldn’t hang on, and the punt return really broke our back,” he said of D.J. Chark’s 75-yard touchdown play in the fourth quarter. “We were in pretty good shape up until that point.” After building a 20-0 lead, Malzahn was content with watching the lead evaporate to 23-14 at halftime. Making a change at quarterback is not the answer. The problem isn't the quarterback or whether or not the starter is a pocket passer or a dual-threat quarterback. The problem is the play-calling and the use of personnel. Coming into the LSU game, Auburn had averaged 142.2 yards passing on first down during their previous four games. This included an average of 17.8 yards per attempt on first down and 19.6 yards per attempt. Not only was Auburn throwing more on first down, but they were also throwing vertically and having great success. This all changed against LSU when Auburn attempted five passes on first down for 10-yards. Auburn threw the ball deep against LSU, more so than any other game this season. The problem was the majority of the deep throws came on third down when LSU was expecting the pass. During the previous four games, Auburn was throwing deep on early downs when the defense was anticipating the run. After the Mississippi State game, I was concerned about the lack of the intermediate passing game and the trend of throwing short and deep becoming Auburn's signature in passing. This fear subsided when Auburn attempted six intermediate passes against Ole Miss, completing five for a total of 103-yards. What we witnessed in the passing game against LSU was nowhere close to what Auburn had accomplished during the proceeding four games. It appeared Gus Malzahn was content with the 17-0 lead and would rely heavily on the running game on early downs, sprinkled in with a few deep shots downfield on obvious passing downs. Jarrett Stidham started off on what looked to be a career out, completing 6 of 8 passes for 146-yards and 1 TD. Once the offense went into a shell, Stidham completed only 3 of his next 18 passes for 19-yards. During this conservative mode, Auburn basically conceded two possessions by allowing Kamryn Pettway to play, which included a sweep, where he was tackled for a loss. An injured Pettway gained 7-yards on four carries. The failure to play Kam Martin or Devan Barrett in the running game was another tactical mistake. Another personnel decision was the lack of attention given to Nate Craig-Myers with Kyle Davis out of the lineup. Not one pass was directed towards NCM. During the four games leading into the LSU game, NCM was the second most targeted WR with 13 balls thrown his way. Eli Stove was No. 3 with 11 balls thrown his way, followed by Will Hastings being targeted ten times. Ryan Davis was the leader of the group with 24 passes thrown his way. By the end of the LSU game, Darius Slayton was the most targeted receiver against LSU, followed by Hastings. Sal Cannella was the third most targeted receiver against LSU. What happened to Ryan Davis and Nate Craig-Myers? Putting Malik Willis in just to run the read-option would not solve the problems needed to be addressed. In fact, the pass-offense under Willis would be even more conservative under Gus Malzahn. We have seen this in the past when Malzahn is starting an inexperienced quarterback. What happened Saturday in Baton-Rouge was mind-boggling, to say the least. Auburn's offensive staff elected to go away from what had been so successful during the four previous games. Compounding the problem was that Auburn had enormous success during the first quarter of the LSU game. It wasn't like the offense laid an egg from the opening kickoff. The Auburn offense had LSU on the brink of quitting, but the coaches decided to coast after building a 17-0 lead. It was a decision that cost Auburn the victory and could be even more detrimental down the road for those involved. War Eagle!
  3. LSU Game Report Card

    Game #7 Statistical Evaluation (LSU Game) Offensive Report Card 01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [3.43] fail 02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [21.4%] fail 03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [4.29] fail 04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [35.7%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [35.7%] fail 06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [6.35 yds] fail 07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] pass 08) TD red zone above 60%: [33.3%] fail 09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [25.2 yds] fail 10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [48.6%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [2 / 0] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [35.0] fail 13) At least 8 impact plays: fail 14) At least 2 big plays: pass 15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [100.6] fail *Minus 1 point for offensive collapse. Score: 4 of 15 (26.7.0%) Fail Defensive Report Card: 01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [7.56] fail 02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [35.3%] fail 03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less: [4.02] fail 04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [33.3%] fail 05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [41.7%] pass 06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [8.24 yds] fail 07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] pass 08) TD red zone below 60%: [66.7%] fail 09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [30.2 yds] fail 10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [35.9%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [2/1] fail 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [32.0] pass 13) Less than 8 impact plays: pass 14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: fail 15) Pass rating below 125.0: [134.4] fail Score: 5 of 15 (33.3%) Fail Special Teams Report Card: 1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [40.0] fail 2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [41.5] fail 3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [4.0] fail 4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [20.0] pass 5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [19.5] fail 6) PAT’s (100%): [2 / 2] pass 7) FG Pct (75% or above): [3 /3] pass Score: 3 of 7 (42.8%) Fail * 50% is a passing score. Since 1981, Auburn is now 94-3 in games the Tigers scored at least 23 points by halftime. Two of the losses have come under Gus Malzahn. During the same period (1981-2017), Auburn is now 90-7 in games Auburn scores at least 14 points during the first period. Six of the seven losses have come under Gus Malzahn's offense. After taking a 20-0 lead, Auburn had gained 232-yards on 25 snaps. During their next ten possessions, Auburn gained 122-yards on 45 plays. It was an epic collapse on offense, with questionable play-calling after Auburn scored 23 points. After attempting two passes on first down during Auburn's first possession of the game, the Tigers ran the ball 23 of their next 24 first down plays. Auburn gained 75-yards during those 24 first down snaps. After completing 6 of his first eight passes for 146-yards and one touchdown, Jarrett Stidham finished the game, 3 of 18 for 19-yards. There was virtually no intermediate passing game as 14 of Stidham's 26 pass attempts was either a perimeter pass or a deep ball. Auburn continued their trend of failing to attack the middle of the field, something that came back to haunt them for the second time this season. Kerryon Johnson was the only bright spot on offense with a career-high of 31 carries. He gained 156-yards and scored his 13th touchdown of the season. Once again, Auburn failed to utilize Kam Martin or Devan Bennett in the running game, electing to give four carries to an injured Kamryn Pettway. With Kyle Davis out of the rotation this week, Chip Lindsey and Gus Malzahn failed to throw one ball at Nate Craig-Myers but targeted Sal Cannella four times. The defense had another failing grade this week, giving up a season-high of four plays of 30-yards or more. Except for the mental errors and the big plays allowed, the Auburn defense played well enough to win the game if the Auburn offense had anything that resembled a pulse during the second-half. Auburn is playing better defense this year, but they are not an "elite" defense. The tackles for loss has diminished since the season opener, and they struggle forcing turnovers, which are hallmark signs of an elite defense. Injuries have hurt the defense, but everyone is dealing with injuries this far into the season. Auburn's bye-week cannot come soon enough, but the Tigers have one more road-game to struggle through before the extra time-off arrives. Auburn is now 0-2 in games that go towards defining a season. The Clemson loss at the time was a little more tolerable considering it was on the road against the defending national champion. This loss to LSU was a "must-win" for the Auburn Tigers as they were catching an LSU team struggling and injured. Gus Malzahn could not stop the collapse after Auburn blew a 20-0 lead and appeared content with riding out the 23-14 lead at halftime. The players will be resilient enough to bounce back from a colossal failure but will the coaches? We have seen this before under Gus Malzahn, and there is nothing on the horizon to indicate it won't occur again. Running too much on first down and placing your QB in position to throw more on third down than first down. Ride one running back and leave other capable backs on the bench. No use of the tight end for three years now and failure to attack the middle of the field. There is more but the Auburn fanbase already knows the ongoing issues. The only person who has failed to recognize the shortcomings is the man calling all the shots. He had an opportunity to revamp the offense after letting Rhett Lashlee go but he decided to hire an offensive coordinator who was a grad-assistant just four years ago. War Eagle!
  4. Auburn to be tested on the road in Baton Rouge

    "If Auburn scores five times, we are looking at 15-35 points. If LSU scores three times, we are looking at 9 to 21 points. This is why this game could be a tight game or a possible dominating performance by the Auburn Tigers."
  5. Here are some statistical keys to watch for Saturday in Baton Rouge: During three of LSU's five FBS games, they managed to hold their opponent to 11 possessions or less. My scoring projection is based on Auburn scoring five times and LSU scoring three times during the game. If Auburn scores five times, we are looking at 15-35 points. If LSU scores three times, we are looking at 9 to 21 points. This is why this game could be a tight game or a possible dominating performance by the Auburn Tigers. Keeping the game under 12 possessions will be the goal for the LSU offense, which is why I believe the most important statistic this week is the first team to 40+ rush attempts. Gus Malzahn's Auburn Tigers are 20-6 in conference play when Auburn has 45 or more rush attempts and 5-9 when the opponent rushes 40 times or more. Auburn against FBS competition is scoring on 48 percent of their possessions. If LSU can control the clock, they can limit the visiting Tigers to 10 possessions or less. Of Auburn's scoring percentage thus far, it includes a touchdown on 33 percent of their possessions. The fewer possessions by Auburn, the increased probability LSU will hold Auburn under 30 points. LSU against FBS competition is scoring 30 percent of the time with 25 percent being touchdowns. During Auburn's five FBS games, the Tigers have reached the red zone on 30 percent of their possessions. Upon reaching the red zone, Auburn has scored every time, including 75 percent being touchdowns. To maximize their scoring, Auburn will either need to generate touchdown plays outside the red zone or be extremely efficient once inside the red zone. Through six games, 72 percent of Auburn's touchdowns have been scored inside the red zone. Unless the trends change, this places even more importance on red zone efficiency this week. Auburn does enter the game, No. 13 nationally in TD percentage inside the red zone during conference play. LSU will be the second best defense Auburn has faced up to this point, which is why I projected five scoring drives but three of them being field goal possessions. I will admit I am leaning on the conservative side but Auburn hasn't been very successful on offense in Baton Rouge in the past. Protecting the football is always important but will be more so this Saturday. Auburn under Gus Malzahn is 8-1 in conference play with ZERO turnovers and 17-7 with 1 turnover or less. Overall all, Auburn is 18-6 in conference play when they don't lose the turnover battle and 12-0 when they WIN the turnover battle. PREDICTION: Auburn 23 LSU 13 War Eagle!
  6. Ole Miss Game Report Card

    Thank you for the kind words. Last week I gave the offense a bonus point for a record setting big play performance. This week, I deducted a point for a record setting collapse in scoring. It was the 3rd worst margin of victory after leading by 30 points at halftime since 1981. The average margin of victory when Auburn has led by more than 30 points at halftime is 42.6 points. It was also only the 7th time in 79 games the Auburn offense failed to score a TD after scoring at least 20 points by halftime. Based on previous statistical data, I deducted the first point. The 2nd point deduction was also based on stats. With a 32 point lead, Kerryon Johnson had 46% of the carries during the 2nd half. With a 32 point lead, Stidham took 30 of the 36 second half snaps. This is why I mentioned poor personnel usage but it most certainly was based on numbers. I would have been fine with the lack of offensive consistency during the 2nd half had it been because we had reserves on the field but this was not the case. If the starting QB and RB are in for the majority of the 2nd half of a blowout game, I believe one TD drive should be expected. The report card should reflect the entire game but should also reflect situational aspects of the game. I would not have deducted the second point had it not been for the percentage of plays taken by Stidham and Johnson during the second-half.
  7. During the last 448 Auburn games, the Tigers have led at halftime by at least 30 points on 30 occasions. It has occurred 6.7 percent of the time, so yesterday was indeed a treat. Of the 30 games where Auburn led by more than 30 points at halftime, only seven of those games were conference opponents. Since 1981, it has occurred just 2.5 percent of the time in conference play. Auburn led Ole Miss 35-3 at halftime, the identical halftime score of the Alabama-Ole Miss game, which included a defensive score for the Crimson Tide. By halftime, Auburn had outgained the Rebels by 187-yards, while Alabama outgained Ole Miss by 167-yards at halftime. Alabama closed out the deal more efficiently than Auburn, but that should be expected just because Alabama's has more talent on their depth chart than Auburn. By the end of the third quarter, Auburn held a commanding 41-10 lead. The Rebels gained nearly 33 percent of their yardage and over 60 percent of their points during the final period when Auburn was playing backups on defense. If we learned anything from comparing the two games, it is Alabama has better talent and depth across the board. I think if we are honest, we already knew this to be the case before the season began. Coach Matt Luke said his team quit during the second-half of the Alabama game. During their week of preparation for Auburn, Luke reminded his team they had to learn to play two halves. No matter what happened against Auburn during the first half, they were not going to quit as they did against Alabama. I will admit it is very tempting to focus on how Auburn finished the game rather than how they started with all hands on deck. Yes, the lack of production the second-half wasn't entertaining to watch. It revealed what subbing and shutting down the offense will do in conference play. Lesson learned. If we return to how the first-half played out, it is clear the game plan on offense was sound and executed very well. The offensive personnel played with passion, building a lead that only occurs during 2.5 percent of Auburn's conference games. The defense stumbled coming off the line, giving up 107-yards during the first two possessions defended. They however closed out the first half with 97-yards allowed during the next five possessions. It was the best first half played this season. Can anyone really question whether or not this team was prepared to play against the Rebels? Would it have been better for the team had the other running backs played sooner? Yes. Would it have been better to give Malik Willis more valuable reps on the field to provide him with more experience? Yes. Would it have been better had Chip Lindsey called a more creative second half? Yes. After defending 49 snaps during the first half, it was clear Auburn wanted to grind clock, knowing the game was safely in hand. The way I see it today (Sunday)... the team I watched crush Ole Miss during the first half was pretty darn good. The second half performance tells me the coaches and players are still working towards improving, but it doesn't change the fact of how well the Tigers played when fully operational. Now it is time to get ready for LSU in Death Valley. This Auburn team is far from perfect, but there is no doubt, they are a better team than six games into the 2016 season. During the last three games, Auburn has outscored the opponent 42-6 during the first quarter and 87-20 by halftime. If the team that opened up against Missouri, Mississippi State and Ole Miss, shows up in Baton Rouge, I like our chances for coming home with the victory. War Eagle!
  8. Ole Miss Game Report Card

    Game #6 Statistical Evaluation (Ole Miss Game) Offensive Report Card 01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [8.00] pass 02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [56.2%] pass 03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [6.39] pass 04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [61.5%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [15.4%] pass 06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [11.2 yds] pass 07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] pass 08) TD red zone above 60%: [60.0%] fail 09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [43.1 yds] pass 10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [75.0%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [5/0] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [14.4] pass 13) At least 8 impact plays: [12] pass 14) At least 2 big plays: [2] pass 15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [192.1] pass *Minus 2 points for 2nd half play calling and player personnel usage. Score: 12 of 15 (80.0.0%) Pass Defensive Report Card: 01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [5.43] pass 02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [44.4%] fail 03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less: [2.77] pass 04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [33.3%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [33.3%] fail 06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [6.78 yds] pass 07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] fail 08) TD red zone below 60%: [75.0%] fail 09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [35.7 yds] fail 10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [44.4%] fail 11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [4/0] fail 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [27.0] fail 13) Less than 8 impact plays: [8] fail 14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: [2] pass 15) Pass rating below 125.0: [136.6] fail Score: 5 of 15 (33.3%) Fail Special Teams Report Card: 1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [41.0] fail 2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [0.0] pass 3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [4.5] fail 4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [20.0] pass 5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [43.5] pass 6) PAT’s (100%): [5 / 5] pass 7) FG Pct (75% or above): [3 /3] pass Score: 5 of 7 (71.4%) Pass * 50% is a passing score. It was a tale of two halves as Auburn appeared to be headed to another dominating performance but ended up going through the motions to close out the second half. Auburn had 391-yards and 35 points by halftime but finished the game with 170-yards and 9 points. The defense allowed 204 yards during the first half and 225-yards during the second half. It was the worst performance by the Auburn defense on the season, which failed to register a turnover and recorded only three tackles for loss. Auburn defenders took poor angles throughout the game, and there were way too many missed tackles. Tackles for loss has descended every game since the season opener, which is becoming an alarming concern. The Auburn offense appeared to be headed to record-setting pace during the first half, scoring five touchdowns on their first five possessions of the game. With 2:21 left in the first half and the ball at their 10-yard line, Auburn had an opportunity to work on their two-minute offense. With 2nd & 6 at the Rebel 42, Auburn called a timeout and elected to run the wildcat package, resulting in a 1-yard loss. This play killed the momentum of the drive, which carried over to the second-half. It was the perfect opportunity to allow Jarrett Stidham and the offense to work on the passing game within the two-minute situation. If Auburn scores another touchdown, the score is 42-3 at halftime, and Malik Willis can play the entire second-half. Malik Willis ended up with one series for the game, where he handed off the ball four times to run the clock out. Auburn's best drive of the second-half, was a 13 play drive, which featured 10 Kerryon Johnson carries with Auburn leading 38-10. Auburn's defense defended 49 snaps during the first half, which likely weighed into the decision to run the clock the second-half. The decision to run the football was the right choice but failing to feature Malik Willis as the quarterback to run a heavy-run concept was baffling. Auburn ran the ball 80 percent of the time during their last four possessions, but Willis was the quarterback on only 6 of the last 30 snaps. There were several significant individual performances on offense, including Kerryon Johnson who finished with a career-high, 204-yards rushing. Ryan Davis made a spectacular play on the screenplay for a 75-yard touchdown. Darius Slayton made an incredible catch to gain 20-yards with Stidham scrambling for his life. Though he attempted only 21 passes, Stidham recorded seven impact plays in the passing game. The talent is there to be an explosive offense, but the coaches are often their own worst enemy. There have been 14 occasions this season the Auburn offense gained 30-plus yards on a play without scoring. Auburn has called a run play after all 14 big gains, netting 48-yards on 14 carries. Of the 48-yards gained, 41 came on three run plays, leaving 7-yards gained on the remaining 11 snaps. During the last three games, Auburn is running the football 82 percent of the time on first down. War Eagle!
  9. Notes going into Week #6

    Auburn's defense has allowed a 3rd down conversion rate of 17.6% during the first quarter, 42.3% during the second, 16.7% during the third and 40.9% during the final quarter. 44.4 percent of the sacks allowed this season have occurred on third down. The vertical passing on early downs has been a great adjustment. Auburn has allowed 3.5 yards per play during the first-half and 4.0 yards per play during the second-half. Auburn gained 232-yards on 25 first down plays but 163-yards came off three plays. The Tigers gained only 69-yards on their remaining 22 first down snaps. Auburn gave up 5 negative plays on first down, the most this season. During the last three games, the Auburn offense has generated 24 plays of 15-yards or more. The average distance of these 24 impact plays is 36.5 yards. If Auburn can duplicate their running game from 2016, this offense will become difficult to defend. Kamryn Pettway averages 3.4 yards per rush and Malik Miller is averaging 4.8 yards. Until Pettway is fully recovered, Miller needs to replace Pettway as Auburn's inside runner. Kerryon Johnson is healthier this week than last week. Pettway is working through issues with his feet and ankle. Auburn currently has FOUR receivers averaging over 20-yards per reception. This will place a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. During his three games, Jarrett Stidham is completing 83 percent of his passes for 11.8 yards per attempt. There is no doubt he is becoming more confident in the offense. Keep in mind he is basically a freshman in terms of playing experience and a redshirt sophomore based on time. During the last three games, Jarrett Stidham has completed 25 of 28 first down passes for an astonishing 16.8 yards per attempt. During the first 3 games of the season, Jarrett Stidham was 1 of 10 throwing beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage for 27-yards. During the last two games, Stidham is 7 of 10 for 367-yards. 72 of Pettway and Johnson's combined 117 carries have netted 3 yards or less (61.5 percent). Auburn was 5 of 8 in short-yardage situations (2-yards or less) against the Bulldogs, the lowest percentage this season (61.5%). It will be interesting to see if Chip Lindsey comes up with a short-yardage and red zone package with Malik Willis in the Wildcat set. On a positive note, Auburn gained 142-yards in short-yardage situations against MSU. Coming into the game, Auburn had gained 92-yards during the previous four games combined. Auburn's linebackers registered 27 tackles against MSU, a season high for the linebackers. This was without the services of Tre Williams who should be back for the Ole Miss game. Only 18 percent of the snaps defended by the Auburn defense this season has been part of a scoring drive against the Tiger defense. Kevin Steele has this defense dialed in for success in 2017. During the last two games, Auburn is 9 for 9 inside the red zone with all possessions resulting in a touchdown. Auburn has averaged 3.4 points per opponent's turnovers and have allowed 2 points for each of their own miscues. If the defense continues success in forcing turnovers, it will move into the "elite" status. From 1992-2017, Auburn has now gained over 500-yards in offense in conference play, thirty times. Of the 30 games of 500-yards or more, 17 have come under Gus Malzahn's offense. Auburn had a pass-rating of 120.4 on first down during the first two games and a rating of 246.4 during the last three games. Success on first down is always the mark of a great offense. Auburn is now 20-0 versus Mississippi State when scoring at least 7 points during the first quarter from 1981-2017. Malzahn's offense at Auburn has now totaled 31 games of 500-yards or more on offense and 37 games, scoring at least 40 points. War Eagle!
  10. Game #5 Statistical Evaluation (Mississippi State Game) Offensive Report Card 01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [9.28] pass 02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [50.0%] pass 03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [6.26] pass 04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [46.2%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [23.1%] pass 06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [15.7 yds] pass 07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] pass 08) TD red zone above 60%: [100.0%] pass 09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [39.3 yds] pass 10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [53.6%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [3.0] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [9.3] pass 13) At least 8 impact plays: [8] pass 14) At least 2 big plays: [7] pass 15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [253.1] pass *Bonus point for 7 plays of 30-yards or more. Score: 16 of 15 (107.0%) Pass Defensive Report Card: 01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [6.35] fail 02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [33.3%] pass 03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less: [4.13] fail 04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [14.3%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [35.7%] pass 06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [4.2 yds] pass 07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [66.7%] pass 08) TD red zone below 60%: [33.3%] pass 09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [25.1 yds] pass 10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [17.9%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [.5] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [84.0] pass 13) Less than 8 impact plays: [5] pass 14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: [2] pass 15) Pass rating below 125.0: [68.9] pass Score: 13 of 15 (86.7%) Pass Special Teams Report Card: 1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [36.3] pass (2 of 3 inside 20) 2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [5.0] pass 3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [8.0] fail 4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [22.0] fail 5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [24.5] pass 6) PAT’s (100%): [7 / 7] pass 7) FG Pct (75% or above): [0 /1] fail Score: 4 of 7 (57.1%) Pass * 50% is a passing score. It was another "big play" performance by the Auburn Tigers. The Auburn offense recorded seven plays of 30-yards or more, the most against a Power-5 opponent by an Auburn offense from 1992-2017. Though Auburn had only 56 offensive snaps, they cashed it in for over 500-yards and six offensive touchdowns. Before tonight, Malzahn's offense at the collegiate level had been under 60 snaps against Power-5 competition on 17 occasions. Auburn averaged only 21 points per game. Jarrett Stidham had another stellar performance with a pass rating of 195.7 during his last three games combined and a rating of 231.5 during his last two games. Auburn recorded only 14 first downs, but the big plays allowed Auburn to pile up the points and yardage. Prior tonight, Auburn had been held to 15 first downs or less since Malzahn was responsible for the offense. Auburn was 2-8 during those games for an average of 15.9 points per game. The Auburn defense turned in another solid performance, which was slightly tainted by the Bulldogs gaining over 100-yards in garbage time against Auburn's backup defenders. The starting defense allowed 4.05 yards per play before the backup defenders allowed 104-yards on 23 snaps. The Bulldogs had success running the ball against Auburn, but it hurt the Tigers more so in the "time of possession" game than the scoreboard, where it matters most. The Tiger secondary played their best game of the season accounting for a season-high, 12 passes broken up along with two interceptions. Kevin Steele's defense has now held the opponent to under 20 points during 14 of 18 games. The last time Auburn held 14 of 18 opponents under 20 points was during the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Once again, Auburn was able to play reserves to continue their building of quality depth. Chip Lindsey did an exceptional job of attacking the Mississippi State defense, making the Bulldogs pay for bringing their safeties up to defend the run. Even though Auburn only attempted 17 passes on the night, eight different Tigers recorded at least one reception. Auburn's seven plays of 30-yards equated to 381-yards more than Mississippi State gained on 84 offensive snaps. Jarrett Stidham's accuracy on the deep passes is something to marvel, and he is beginning to live up to his preseason hype as a passer. Auburn has recorded ten pass plays of 30-yards or more during the last two games. Auburn had 16 such pass plays during the entire 2016 season, the same number they had during the 2015 season. Auburn's 49-10 victory over Mississippi State was another step forward for the 2017 Auburn Tigers, and there is still plenty of room for improvement on offense. The defense has been playing with a lot of confidence this season, and the Auburn offense is quickly catching up during the past two games. The ceiling on this team remains high but it is important they stay focused to avoid an upset. They are good enough to beat any team remaining on their schedule but not consistent enough at this point to overlook any future Power-5 opponents. The Bulldogs victory over LSU has been diminished over the past two weeks but Auburn's win tonight was certainly a more impressive performance than last weeks win over Missouri. War Eagle!
  11. Upon Further Review - Missouri Game

    Auburn’s ratio was 10.7 before the Missouri game so it was already an issue. It has been an issue after the 2014 season.
  12. Big plays and turnovers were the primary difference in the game. Only 35.1 percent of Auburn's offensive snaps netted at least 5-yards, while Missouri was 40.0 percent. Last week against Mercer, 47.5 percent of Auburn's snaps gained at least 5-yards. The offense is still not where they need to be in terms of consistency. During the first quarter this season Auburn has converted 58.8 pct of their 3rd downs on offense, while allowing only 16.7 pct on defense. During the third quarter Auburn has converted 50.0 pct, while allowing 14.3 percent. Great way to start each half. Coming into the Missouri game, Auburn began three possessions on the opponent's side of the field through 3 games. The Tigers had three such possessions against Missouri, scoring touchdowns on all three possessions. Through 4 games, 53.9 percent of Jarrett Stidham's pass attempts have been within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. Last season Jeremy Johnson was 42.6 percent in an attempt to prevent him from throwing interceptions. Auburn needs to attack the intermediate range as their schedule becomes more challenging. Through 4 games, 57.5 percent of the combined carries by Pettway, Johnson and Martin have been for 3-yards or less. Last season through 4 games it was 48.5 percent. Auburn is currently averaging 4.8 yards per rush during the first half and only 3.5 yards per carry during the second half. Auburn's front-7 accounted for 41.7 percent of the team's tackles against Missouri. This was the lowest percentage for the season. The front-7 averaged 61.6 percent coming into the game. Auburn is currently averaging an impact play (15-yds or more) every 10.7 snaps. This ratio ranks 20th among the last 26 Auburn offenses (1992-2017). Impact play ratio is a good scale to judge the efficiency of an offense or defense. The Auburn defense is currently allowing a TD every 52.0 plays defended. This is the 5th best ratio by an Auburn defense from 1970-2017. The 2016 Auburn defense finished No. 11 on the list. There are plenty of games left to play but it is a solid start for the Tigers. Jarrett Stidham was 5 of 5 passing on first down for 166-yards and one touchdown. This gave him a passer rating of 444.9, the second best rating during the last 314 Auburn games on first down. His 33.2 yards per attempt on first down was the best during the same time frame. Auburn averaged over 4-yards more per play on first down than Missouri, marking the 37th time this happened from 1992-2017. Auburn is 34-2-1 during those 37 games with an average score of 41-13. Auburn is currently averaging a 10-yard run or better every 11.2 attempts. The worst ratio by a Malzahn-Auburn offense was 1 every 8.3 rush attempts during 2015. Auburn is currently No. 111 nationally in this statistical category. From 2009-2015, Auburn held 27.4 percent of the opponents to under 20 points. Under Kevin Steele, it has happened 76.4 percent of the time. Tommy Tuberville's teams from 2000-2007 were 63-7 in games the offense scored at least 20 points. The Malzahn-Steele combination is currently 10-0 when Auburn scores at least 20 points. Auburn is currently holding their opponent to 47.8 percent below their rushing average. This is the second best percentage from 1970-2017. Only the 1988 defense ranked higher. During Auburn's last 663 games, the Tigers have out-rushed their opponent by at least 100-yards on 248 occasions. Auburn won 95 percent of those games with a record of 233-12-3. From 1992-2017, Auburn averaged eleven impact plays (15 or more yards) during games the Tigers scored at least 45 points. Auburn had only six such plays against Missouri, while totaling 51 points. During the same time period, Auburn has won 82 percent of their games with at least 8 impact plays and 89 percent of their games with at least three plays of 30-yards or more. Big plays (30 or more yards) are great but do not occur as frequently as impact plays. There is normally two impact plays for each big play tallied. War Eagle!
  13. Missouri Game Report Card

    Thank you... it has been corrected.
  14. Missouri Game Report Card

    Game #4 Statistical Evaluation (Missouri Game) Offensive Report Card 01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [9.72] pass 02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [46.7%] pass 03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [4.96] pass 04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [64.3%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [0.0%] pass 06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [10.4 yds] pass 07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] pass 08) TD red zone above 60%: [100.0%] pass 09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [34.4 yds] pass 10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [60.8%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [6/0] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [12.3] pass 13) At least 8 impact plays: [6] fail 14) At least 2 big plays: [5] pass 15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [179.5] pass Score: 14 of 15 (93.3%) Pass Defensive Report Card: 01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [5.03] pass 02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [30.8%] pass 03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less: [4.00] pass 04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [15.4%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [30.8%] fail 06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [5.54 yds] pass 07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] fail 08) TD red zone below 60%: [100.0%] fail 09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [26.1 yds] pass 10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [18.6%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [2/3] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [35.0] pass 13) Less than 8 impact plays: [6] pass 14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: [0] pass 15) Pass rating below 125.0: [117.3] pass Score: 12 of 15 (80.0%) Pass Special Teams Report Card: 1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [39.3] fail 2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [0.0] pass 3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [1.0] fail 4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [21.0] pass 5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [21.0] fail 6) PAT’s (100%): [6 / 6] pass 7) FG Pct (75% or above): [100.0%] pass Score: 4 of 7 (57.1%) Pass * 50% is a passing score. It was a night of big plays for the Auburn offense with five snaps of 74 accounting for half of Auburn's total yardage. Without the big plays, Auburn averaged 3.5 yards per offensive snap on their remaining 69 offensive snaps. Jarrett Stidham came into the game, completing only 1 of 10 passes thrown beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage. He was 3 of 4 throwing deep against the Missouri defense. Auburn primarily threw short and took an occasional deep shot with Stidham on the field. Of his 17 pass attempts, seven were within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage, leaving only three attempts in the intermediate range. Auburn did not attack the perimeter much in the running game, but when they did, it accounted for 43 percent of Auburn's 263-yards on the ground. The starting defense played well, allowing only one scoring drive and 179-yards during nine possessions defended. The starting defense forced two turnovers and had four "3 & out" series before they gave way to the backups. Nearly half the yardage allowed to Mizzu came with Auburn's starting defense sitting on the bench. Auburn finished with six tackles for loss, while the Auburn offense gave up only three for the night. The first-team defense allowed 19.9 yards per possession, while the reserves allowed 38.7 yards. Auburn's starters on defense allowed 2.4 yards per play on first down, and the reserves surrendered 9.2 yards per snap. Last season through four games, the Auburn defense allowed 12 plays of 30-yards or more. This season through 4 games, the Tigers have allowed only one such play, No. 1 in the country. Auburn had another opportunity to play their reserves tonight, especially on the offensive side of the football. Malik Willis played for the first time this season, and we witnessed some of the athletic skills the coaches have spoken of in practice. He clearly possesses great lateral movement but needs to adjust to the collegiate game. Those type of moves on one given play will not work as it did in high school. He attempted five passes tonight but what would have been his first collegiate touchdown pass was called back on a penalty. Leading 51-7 late in the game, Gus Malzahn was likely reluctant in throwing vertically downfield. Considering how the coaching staff played JFIII last season, Willis was fortunate to receive the reps he did in the passing game. It will be interesting to see if Willis will be utilized inside the red zone and short-yardage situations somewhere later this season. It was a much-needed victory and enough big plays for the Auburn offense to gain some confidence moving forward. This was a bad Missouri team, a shell of the last Mizzu team Auburn faced four years ago. Regardless of the level of competition, the team performed better on the road against a better opponent (Mercer) than they faced at home last Saturday. Auburn was never going to repair everything in one week, but a 37-point victory on the road was a good start. Looking back at the last 40-years of Auburn football, tonight's road victory was the third highest margin of victory over a SEC team on the road with a win percentage under 40 percent. The previous bests were 1978 Vanderbilt (49-7) and 2003 Vanderbilt (45-7). The team was better prepared to compete tonight than last week and the players executed much better as well. War Eagle!
  15. As frustrated as Auburn fans have become with Gus Malzahn over the past few seasons, we should separate the issues Auburn currently has now to those that have been constant issues from 2014-2016. In all fairness to the coaching staff in 2017: 1) Auburn has installed a new passing game into the offense, and they are still working through the kinks of this adjustment. This is SEPARATE from the passing issues Auburn has experienced in the past. Regardless of the status of the pass-offense before 2017, Auburn would still be working through the adjustments they are experiencing now. New passing schemes and starting a quarterback who hasn't played in almost two years has made it a slow start. Bottom line, passing issues in 2017 have nothing to do with passing issues Auburn had prior to this season. 2) The change to more zone blocking this season has been the greatest issue on offense this season. Changing to zone blocking and to be effective at it, takes some time for everyone involved to adjust. Added to this issue is two new starters in the lineup having to learn the new blocking concepts as well as gaining experience on the field as a regular. Zone blocking schemes also effect how the RB's play within zone blocking concepts. Kamryn Pettway and company now have to wait for running lanes to open up, whereas, in the past, there was a designated hole to run through based on "man" concepts. Again, this is another phase the offense must work through this season, which has nothing to do with how the offense performed from late 2014 to the conclusion of 2016. Even if the offense were hitting on all eight cylinders prior to 2017, Auburn would still be working through the OL adjustments made for 2017. There are certainly offensive issues needed to be addressed this season, which has carried over from 2016. To the staff's credit, they have addressed the running on 1st down 80% of the time this season. Auburn is no longer as predictable on 1st down as they once were. The continuing issues from past seasons are the use of personnel or the lack of. Auburn has players capable of making plays, but Gus Malzahn has been stubborn about putting them on the field for meaningful snaps, which is primarily the RB position. The use of the other RB's on the roster would require schematic changes on how Auburn runs the football. This would limit the constant inside plays Auburn has become dependant upon when utilizing Kamryn Pettway. On the other hand, the regular rotation of 6-8 WR's every game has been too much, IMO. I think this should be cut down to 4-5 so that Jarrett Stidham can build a relationship and trust with his "primary" receivers. It would be nice for Coach Malzahn to revisit his playbook from 2009 when Auburn utilized motion and shifts prior to the snap. Some of the plays dialed up that season often created space for playmakers to make plays. Dusting off some of those plays from eight years ago could easily be installed. If the passing adjustments and OL issues can be fixed, I believe we will see this offense looking like a more well-oiled machine. How the coaching staff elects to play their RB's and WR's moving forward remains to be seen. This is not to give Malzahn a pass for previous failures and struggles. I don't think he survives another 5-loss season and his past efforts will certainly come back to haunt him should it happen (another 5-loss season). My point is that the current offensive woes are not a carry over from 2016. Some of the current issues are typical growing pains when changes and adjustments are made to the design of the offense. The offense could take another step in progressing on the road in conference play against Missouri. No doubt the offense has stumbled coming off the line but nothing is written in stone, they cannot improve as the season progresses. If you have written off Gus Malzahn, you still have to wait for season's end for a possible change to be made. If anything, the players have an opportunity to improve and for the offense to contribute to a good season. I vote to support the players and hope they make the best of their opportunity to do so. The 1994 and 2002 Auburn offenses struggled early but improved as the season wore on. Here is to beating Missouri tonight and to building confidence moving forward! Auburn 27 Missouri 10 War Eagle!