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JwgreDeux last won the day on April 2 2019

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  1. Im not worried about our shooting at all. We don't shoot it well, that won't suddenly change. If anything it may bring some teams back towards us and be an asset. I so share your second concern for Okoro's health, which is why I am very curious what rotations CBP will use. You nailed this one. When we have bad offensive stretches, it is less about shooting and more about lack of ball movement. Stagnant offense is our worst enemy. We at times really hurt ourselves not getting into any offense until 10 seconds on the shot clock with a high pick and roll. Have to get going earlier in the clock and keep the ball moving whether dribble driving or passing. I have found myself screaming at the tv for somebody to just move. UGA has better players but no killer instincts, I'd take Ole Miss and I think Vandy will be a tough out, but think Arky gets it done.
  2. PG: as expected SG: overall production above expected SF: as expected (which is a compliment due to CBPs preseason praise of Okoro) PF: below expectations C : as expected bench has been inconsistent but about as expected
  3. 4,5,6 seed may or may not make much of a difference. The draw, who plays who, matters much more. Right now when looking at the potential seedings, there are teams on all the 3, 4, 5 and 6 lines that I would like our matchup and that I wouldn't. Right now, I'd like CBP to figure out our new rotations and we will see where all the chips fall.
  4. I think all the OT wins factor in as well. If voters look at metrics, we are in the 30s. Our record is a bit better than our level of play. We have 13 wins by single digit margins, games won or lost in essentially 3 possessions. Our record could easily be a few games worse. At this point in the season, I wouldn't get too hung up on ranking. Its much more about seeding and draw. We are a 5 seed right now and I think that is a fair seed. I'd like to get off that 5 line though with a few wins in Nashville.
  5. Currently we are on the 5 line, with a 12 matchup in the first round and likely a 4 in the second. While the top looks pretty weak this year (comparatively to recent years) the 3 and 4 seeds look brutal. Not sure a deep run in Nashville will move us much at all, but I'd sure love to get off that 5 line.
  6. Per Ken Pom: Auburn has a better probability to reach the SEC semis and Final than any other team, and has the second highest probability to win it all, 1.3% behind UK.
  7. Well the game have been played, post-season and the big dance await, it's great to be an Auburn Tiger! So let's jump right in and take a look at some preseason predictions and where we ended up, as well as look at some particular players and what we need as we begin postseason play. (First lets review some predictions) From my season preview: "My mostly uneducated prediction for the season is 19-11 overall and 9-9 in the league. Think we will likely be a bubble team that hopefully gets the benefit of the doubt on selection day, as we have a pretty unimpressive out of conference schedule. (I am reserving the right to edit this after we see the exhibition). War Eagle. " "After seeing the exhibition game, I am going to improve my outlook on the season slightly to another 20 win season, going 20-10 and 10-8 in the league." From my non-conference review: So, I predicted a 10-2 non-conference record and we are sitting at 12-0, but I would like to point out we are only 2 points away from being 10-2 (1 point win vs South Alabama, and 1 more point given up in regulation would have been a loss vs Furman which we won in OT). We have 3 other wins by single digit margins, so I think we need to both relish being undefeated and realize that we aren't as dominant as our record and some stats would indicate.... ......I hope to be doing a Season Review that our guys were a few game better than I predicted, we shall see. So I am happy to be doing a season review where our guys were a few games better in SEC play than predicted. My prediction of 10-8 was off by two full games as we ended up going 12-6. However, again we were dangerously close to dropping a few games as we ended up winning four games in OT. So while I was off by two games, but right in the ballpark of our overall quality of play. We were fortunate the SEC as a whole is a bit below last year's level of play, and we ended up second in the regular season. Overall we went 25-6 which was four games better than my preseason prediction and I think we should all feel very good about what this team and CBP and staff have done this year. Regardless of postseason outcomes, this group has played above expectations and the seniors have a place in Auburn history. Three straight 25 win seasons, let that sink in, is a wonderful accomplishment for this program, but all of these guys want some more hardware before calling it a season/career. So looking back on the season, lets talk about some individual guys: McCormick- played at a level about as expected. He had some ups and downs but has done what we needed from him and more at times. Averaging 11pts and 4 assists Samir- played at a level above last season's performance, and we needed it badly. He has been and will be our most valuable player with 16pts 4 rebs and 2 assists per game. He is also leading the team in minutes per game as our starting 2 and backup 1. He was held to single digit scoring in 4 SEC games (Vandy, @Ala, @UF, @UK) and 3 of them were Ls. We need him to play at a high level to make a run in either the SEC or NCAA tourney(s). Okoro- it is a huge compliment to say a true freshman, who put up 13pts, 4rebs, and 2 assist per game, played as expected. As that says he was every bit as good as the hype. His defense was also a huge factor for us all season long and may the key this postseason as we get into a matchup chess match. He is obviously vital to our efforts as we didn't look good or play well in his absence and struggled the first few games of his return. I hope he gets/is fully healthy for our stretch run. Purifoy- played as I expected. He contributed 8pts and 4rebs a game, and is a solid stretch 4, and at times shows flashes of bigger potential. For whatever reason, he just simply has not been able to sustain it. Wiley- played slightly above my expectations, but probably right on par with some others'. He has stretches during games where he is simply dominant, but others where he is turnover prone. Overall he is an above average 5 man, and when we use him for his defense, rebounding and don't try to force it in the post, he can be elite. His defense and rebounding have been the areas I am most happy with him at, and where we will need him to continue his post presence. He has solidified himself as our top 5 man with a solid full season of work. I'm happy for him to get a full regular season in healthy. McLemore- playing the same minutes as WIley off the bench, McLemore just hasn't produced the way I expected. He production is slightly better than half of WIleys, with 6+pts and 4rebs per game. His production this season is essentially flat from that of last season. That said, his presence helps the flow of the offense at times and he has made some timely outside shots (but at times forces them as well). He is a good 6th man, and we will need him to elevate his play if we are going to get to the second weekend of the NCAA. Flanigan/Cambridge- both have been pretty much on track with providing depth at the 3. Each has had some breakouts and slumps but both have been valuable on both ends of the floor. We will need both of these guys to continue to contribute as bench production will win or lose games during tourney play. Johnson- I had little expectations of him, so I'd say he has met those. Being a valuable shoot at times, a liability on defense at others, and a good enough gap filler to allow Samir to get a breather at times. His minutes have fallen sharply in the last handful of games and I would expect that to continue unless we get into foul trouble or something else unusual happens. His ball handling and defense will keep him off the court much of the time from here on out. I do hope that he is able to get in and come through if/when his shooting is needed. Jaylin Williams- may be the most interesting of the whole squad. He has shown flashes at times and when he got called to contribute with Okoro out, he came through. His energy and offense are good, but his defensive awareness needs work. He had some late game lapses against A&M that killed us, but his potential is high. He may be the wild card going into the postseason. Where do we go from here? It's time to step it up. McCormick, Purifoy and McLemore must elevate their play. They have been in this situation before and have found a way to dig deep and come through. This team is deeper, bigger and more physical that last season's but we are not on the same level of play we were this time last year. We did just put together one of our better games, but there are still questions about this team's ability to get tough buckets. I think the last several games we have seen struggles form Okoro being out, but also with CBP juggling the rotation lineup. While the starters haven't changed, Williams's and Johnson's roles have changed. While that may seem like a small thing, it is a significant alteration this late in the season. Is the Tenn game a sign that the chemistry has clicked or are we in for more struggles. I would say its 50/50 at this point. There is reason to believe that Williams is getting better, Okoro healthier and the seniors will dig in and step up, all leading to another magical run. However, there are also plenty of reasons to believe we have seen this team's ceiling and may not be able to get buckets when needed and have an earlier exit from postseason play. From here on out it will be all about matchups. We will see what the bracket brings and hope for the best. As for the SEC, I put little stock in the SEC tourney as I hope CBP is still tweaking our rotation/lineup. Looking at the bracket we get the winner of A&M and Mizzou, two team with recent wins over us. The Mizzou loss was without Okoro and the A&M game was one of the worst games from our bench (6pts) all season. Were those due the injuries/rotations discussed? I think so and feel good about that first game no matter who it is. Next would be winner of USC vs LSU. With only 18hrs between games, I think it would favor our depth and have every reason to expect to get through that game as well. The final would likely be vs UK or UF in my opinion and again, from a pure depth standpoint we may have an advantage against either team. UK is sorting out some roster issues that make them questionable right now so this SEC will be very interesting. The only thing I'm really looking for is what do the rotations look like and how do our guys seem mentally? Another year with AU on a bracket is a good year. War Eagle!!!!!
  8. In addition to @cole256 Point, it was also to get Wiley out of those high pick and rolls. We were really getting hurt in those so going zone eliminates Wiley being in that play and keeps him in a position to protect the rim.
  9. I agree we aren’t good in the half court, but I do think the guard weave has helped the stagnant half court offense. Nothing is more effective than unpredictable true movement. I think our movement is best when we go small at the four. Maybe Cambridge has earned some more time in the floor and we will see that lineup more this game.
  10. I can't begin to describe how badly I want AU to put on a great performance tonight. I'll always take a W, but I would like a whipping tonight. The problem with that is Bama fits the mold that can give us trouble. They rebound the ball well, shoot good percentages and can make outside shots. IF we are struggling to make shots against this type of team, we struggle. Looking back on our first matchup, we played quite poorly, 21 TOs, 31 PFs, 64 points on 31% shooting from the floor, we missed 13 free throws, Samir had more turnovers than points, McLemore, Cambridge and Flanigan gave us very little, and Wiley and Johnson were the only bright spots. Despite all that, we closed the game to a single possession with about 10 mins remaining before we couldn't hang in any longer. The biggest problem was nobody had an answer for Lewis on defense, we couldn't keep him in front or stop him from wreaking havoc. That has to improve. The good news is we are a different team at home, and that loss to Bama ( and the one after to UF) appears more of a fluke than a formula. We didn't play with our typical intensity or chemistry in either of those games. Unfortunately I was in tuscaloosa to witness the last loss. There was not a single issue that can be identified as the problem last time, it was a culmination in a poor undisciplined effort. Can we be more mentally tough this game and not allow the desire for revenge to overcome our ability to execute? That is really what it comes down to. Samir and J'von need to stay within themselves and not turn the ball over. We need to rebound and defend Lewis better, and most of all we need to play together. Less iso early in the shot clock and more movement. I think we have seen some of the dribble handoffs/weave I suggested weeks ago be utilized to help with the movement and I hope that continues with Wiley rolling to the bucket more than posting up. If I had to pick two areas to watch tonight they would be our assist to TO ration (it was 9/21 las game) and our fouls/free throw shooting ( they attempted 7 more and made 12 more last game). Those two areas more than make up the margin we lost by last time. It is less about us needing to shoot good percentages, and more about not hurting ourselves. No self-inflicted wounds tonight boys and War Eagle!
  11. Well, so much for wait and see about his return. Good for him. Now let's see how far he can take us this year. Still kinda strange having two and dones and one and dones coming through Auburn. We are going to lose our entire starting 5 and our 6th man next season, but we can worry about that another day.
  12. I have no sources, so I'll take your word for it.
  13. I'm rushing this on a short lunch break, but here we go: This game comes down to two things: rebounding margin and turnover margin. We need to win the rebounding big and keep it even in the turnover department, Arkansas needs the opposite. Arkansas is small, like Cimeon Bowers Auburn days small. They play 4 guards and a forward basically, and yet as a team don't really shoot the 3 well, getting most of their shots and points inside the arch. Our 4s will be challenged to guard the dribble drive and we may go with our smaller line up some tonight as well. Arky wins games by slowing it down and being pretty efficient on offense and generating turnovers on defense to get some easy points. They are elite in creating turnovers, getting 17 per game (11th in the country) getting 8.5 steals in the process. In three of their losses they only generated 5 or fewer steals, the fourth and fifth losses they got 8 but were outclassed by Kentucky and LSU. Also in 4 of their losses they were held to roughly 30 or fewer rebounds, the exception being an overtime game where they got 39. LSU dominated them on the glass 53-24, Kentucky 47-29 and Miss State 41-31 both won the glass by double digits. Assuming we play in the ballpark of our average game offensively, that is what we need to get the W. Limit TOs and dominate the glass. Arkansas has several guys who can score. We need to limit Jones, who leads them in pretty much every category, but Joe, Sillis and Whitt all have 20 point games this season and can hurt us. They are all pretty much guards, so we may see extended time for Cambridge and or Flannigan to match up on defense if they are hurting us driving on our bigs. They are a good free throw shooting team and get to the line a lot, so we may see another game with high free throw numbers and players fighting foul trouble. They are 1-3 in their last 4 SEC games but still favored by 1 against us due to our poor road play and their home court advantage. We are the better team, can we play like it tonight? For us to win we need good games from J'von and Doughty handling the ball and our wings playing tough D on Jones. Wiley again can be the difference for us on the boards, but we need a team-wide effort to dominate the glass on both ends. Effort, will and toughness will determine this game and how much of a threat we really are to compete for another SEC title. War Eagle!
  14. I'm not saying he won't go, just that it isn't a lock yet. He isn't a lottery pick in every projection, and mock drafts at this point change a lot going forward. I've seen him as high as 6th and as low as 22nd in recent mock drafts. Let's be clear, he is likely gone, but not a lock at this point. A little food for thought. The 4 year deal for the 7th pick last year was 24 million, and the four year total for the 20th pick was 12 million. Depending on a lot of variable with draft class strength, projections, etc...coming back for one year could net him 10+ million if he ends up a later first round grade with a chance to move up to a lottery pick. Again, I'm not saying he is staying, but a lot more goes into it than just if he's a first round grade he's gone. And I'm certainly not hoping he isn't graded highly. I hope he get's a high grade and has a great career and cashes in at the highest level possible.