Bigbens42

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Bigbens42 last won the day on December 11

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  1. Moore or Jones?

    White man elected to Senate. RIP, white people.
  2. A sexual harrassment catch all thread.

    Lord have mercy.
  3. Moore or Jones?

    Welp
  4. A sexual harrassment catch all thread.

    Wonder what happens with the hoax one on Schumer Cernovich and his ilk were pushing.
  5. Moore or Jones?

  6. Moore or Jones?

    He'll be catching hell from the fringes until the end of his time in the Senate, but I think he'll retire at a time of his choosing or the end of his natural life.
  7. Moore or Jones?

    Since polling had been a major topic in this thread, let's discuss how the polling broke down. First, huge shout out to the NYT Upshot's predictive model, which nailed this when returns started rolling in. I was skeptical, but the model had Jones winning all night, even when Moore's lead was +5. After Lee county flipped, their model took it in stride and knew Jones was well on his way to the upset. So, how did they do? Not terribly, all things considered. This was a difficult raced to gauge. Alabama was thought be difficult to poll, and the results bore that out. Taken in the aggregate, the RCP average, Moore was up 2.2, indicating a toss-up, which is exactly what we got. Jones won by 1.5, well within the bounds of a normal polling error (note that the RCP average, being an average, has no margin of error to speak of). But there was a wild spread. Some polls had Moore up 9, others Jones 10. Which individual polls performed the best? Easy. What this ended up being is a vindication of traditional, live caller polling. The robopolls had had Moore anywhere from +4 to +9. None of those polls fell within their margin of error. By their very nature, their sample skewed older. There's your error. The major live interview polls fared way better. Their sample was way more in line with the electorate, as they included cell phones in their surveys. WaPo had Jones +3. It's margin of error was 4.5. Jones won by 1.5. That's excellent. Monmouth indicated a tie. It's margin of error was 4.2. Again, excellent. Fox was the outlier here, polling at Jones +10. Their margin was 4.5 among partisans and 7.5 among independents. I appreciate them putting their neck out there and sharing it, but it was an obvious outlier when it was released, hence my skepticism when I posted it earlier. Overall, not a bad job considering the race.
  8. Moore or Jones?

    I get the feeling Moore will still be stumping in January. Nothing a narcissist hates more than irrelevance.
  9. Moore or Jones?

    A lot of deplorables jumping his case today.
  10. Moore or Jones?

    http://amp.nationalreview.com/article/454619/roy-moore-lost-new-south-defeats-old-south?__twitter_impression=true
  11. Moore or Jones?

    COME ADOPT ME AND FEED ME APPLES
  12. Moore or Jones?

    Exit polling.