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Game #11 Statistical Evaluation (Samford Game) Offensive Report Card: 01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [7.13] pass 02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [50.0%] pass 03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [4.25] fail 04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [41.7%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [33.3%] fail 06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [8.45 yds] pass 07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [80.0%] pass 08) TD red zone above 60%: [60.0%] fail 09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [32.2 yds] pass 10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [52.2%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [4 TD’s / 1] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [17.3] fail 13) At least 8 impact plays:  fail 14) At least 2 big plays:  pass 15) Pass rating of at least 125.0: [136.0] pass * -2 points for poor OL play and poor overall execution. Score: 8 of 15 (53.3%) Pass * Might be a passing performance on paper but this was not a quality offensive effort considering the level of competition. Defensive Report Card: 01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [2.46] pass 02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [37.5%] fail 03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush: [2.97] pass 04) Score below 1/3 of possessions: [7.7%] pass 05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [30.8%] fail 06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [4.31 yds] pass 07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [33.3%] pass 08) TD red zone below 60%: [33.3%] pass 09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [18.3 yds] pass 10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [10.4%] pass 11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [1 TD’s / 2 turnovers] pass 12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [67.0] pass 13) Less than 8 impact plays:  pass 14) No more than 2 big plays allowed:  pass 15) Pass rating below 125.0: [85.5] pass Score: 13 of 15 (86.6%) Pass * Hard to gauge this performance based on the opponent but the defense looked far more focused on defense than the offense. The DL looked much better than the OL and played with more physicality. Special Teams Report Card: 1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [41.0] 2 of 6 inside 20 (fail) 2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [4.0] pass 3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [15.0] pass 4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [19.7] pass 5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [32.0] pass 6) PAT’s (100%): [4 of 4] pass 7) FG Pct (75% or above): [100.0%] pass -1 point for fumbled PR. Score: 5 of 7 (71.4%) pass *Not a very inspiring effort by the offense. I can understand the lack of mental focus on the opponent but the lack of an offensive push (OL) is not excusable. Only 1 run of 15-yards from 47 attempts and that was a Quan Bray perimeter run. War Eagle!
Last night was a clear example of a team that has lost its focus primarily because of how the season has played out. It is much easier to dig down deep physically and mentally, when you have major goals to play for like 2013. This isn't the case this late into the 2014 season and it shows. This is not an excuse for the poor performance last night but this clearly isn't a motivated "team". There are some players who continue to play hard but not enough to make the difference. When Gus Malzahn arrived after the 2012 season, his biggest challenge would be teaching the players how to win again. The challenge now for the coaching staff is demanding the players to play hard all the time, no matter the opponent and record. The second challenge is more difficult than the first. Speaking of players who have not mailed in their performance. Cameron Artis-Payne is a baller and brings his lunchbox to every game. He is not a thriller or speedster but he is a player you want to go to battle with. He ran hard last night just as he has against better competition. Through 11-games, his totals are the 6th best rushing performance by an Auburn player based on yards per game, yards per rush and TD ratio. He has been Auburn's most consistent offensive player this season. What has happened to Corey Grant? His first 20 carries of the season (1st 2 games) produced 14 runs of 5-yards, 7 of 10-yards or more and 3 of 15 yards or more. He was never tackled for a loss and had only 4 carries of 2-yards or less.The remainder of the season he has only 31 carries. Of those 31 attempts, 13 went for 5+, 5 for 10+ and only 2 for 15+. Of his last 31 carries, 14 have gone for 2-yards or less and 6 went for a loss. I believe this is why we have seen less of him running the football. This is also why we have seen more of Ricardo Louis and Quan Bray on the perimeter runs. During the first 9 games of the season, 46.4% of Auburn's offensive snaps resulted in at least 5-yards. During the past 2 games, it has dipped down to 41.7%. Gus Malzahn's offense is built around success on first down. The HUNH aspect doesn't come into play until the first 1st down is made during a possession. Last season through 11 games, 29% of Auburn's first down plays netted 2-yards or less. This season it is 40% through 11 games. Who are the impact players on offense this season? CAP (22), Duke Williams (19), Nick Marshall (18), Sammie Coates (10) and Quan Bray (8). Last year through 11 games it was Marshall (21), Tre Mason (14), Sammie Coates (13), Corey Grant (13) and CAP (10). Last season through 11 games the Auburn offense scored 11 touchdowns on 17 possessions (64.7%) beginning on the opponent's side of the field. This season it is only 6 from 16 possessions (37.5%). In terms of the weekly "report card " features, this is how this year's team compares to last year's through 11 games. 2014 offense (74.5%) slightly up from 73.2% in 2013. This year's defense (52.7%) slightly down from last year's 55.5%. This year's special teams (55.4%) significantly down from last year's 71.4%. In terms of recent trends, the offense has a report card percentage of 55.6% during the last 3 games. The defense is 42.2% and special teams is 50.0%. Last season the Auburn run-offense converted 86.0% of their short-yardage situations of 2-yards or less to convert. This season it is down to 78.4%. During the first 7 games of the season Auburn averaged 10.7 PPG from their opponent's turnovers, while allowing the opponent to score 4.0 PPG from Auburn's turnovers. During the last 4 games, Auburn has scored zero points from their forced turnovers, while allowing 5.2 PPG from their miscues. That is basically an 11-point swing per game. In terms of penalty yardage per game, Auburn is currently No. 114 nationally compared to No. 30 last year. Auburn has surrendered 31 first downs on penalties alone or 2.8 per game. From 2004-2013, Auburn allowed an average of 21 per season or 1.6 per game. The 2013 and 2014 offense both produced 106 impact plays through 11 games. The difference is the 2013 offense had a combined 67 turnovers and penalties, while the 2014 offense has 93, offsetting their offensive production. During the first 5 games of the season the Auburn offense went "3 & out" only 16.1% of the time, while the defense forced a "3 & out", 45.0% of the time. During the last 6 games the offense is hitting at 23.2% and the defense has fallen to 20.0%. As any football season progress teams either improve or regress. Last season's team progressed as the season moved forward and this year's team has retreated. There are many valid reasons for the lack of production. Talent, depth, coaching, preparation, strength of schedule and senior leadership. After the Iron Bowl and headed into bowl preparation, the coaching staff needs to seriously look at themselves as well as the players coming back next season. It will be interesting to see just how much fight this team has left for the Iron Bowl and how the coaching staff schemes to give their players the best opportunity to compete. War Eagle!
Game #11 Statistical Evaluation (Samford Game) Offensive Report Card 1) Average 6-yards per play on 1st down: 4.39 (failed) 2) Convert at least 40 pct of 3rd downs: 50.0 pct (check) 3) Average at least 4.5 yards per rush: 5.06 (check) 4) Score on 1/3 of your offensive possessions: 41.7% (check) 5) Keep "3 and out" series under 33%: 25.0% (check) 6) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: 8.35 (check) 7) Score above 75% in red zone: 75.0% (failed) 8) Average 30-yards per possession: 34.6 YPP (check) 9) 40% of offensive snaps being part of a scoring drive: 55.1% (check) 10) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: 5 TD’s / 2 turnover (check) 11) TD ratio of 1 every 17 plays: 13.8 (check) 12) 8 impact plays: 9 (check) 13) at least 2 big plays: 2 (check) 14) 125.0 pass rating: 151.6 (check) Score: 12 of 14 (85.7 %) Defensive Report Card 1) Average under 6-yards per play on 1st down: 4.66 (check) 2) Convert below 35-pct of 3rd downs: 14.3% (check) 3) Average below 4.0 yards per rush: 3.73 YPC (check) 4) Score below 1/3 of their possessions: 30.8% (check) 5) Keep "3 and out" series above 33%: 30.8% (failed) 6) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: 5.4 YPA (check) 7) Score below 75% in red zone: 100% (failed) 8) Average under 30-yards per possession: 26.0 YPP (check) 9) Less than 40% of offensive snaps being part of a scoring drive: 49.3% (failed) 10) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: 1 TD’s / 2 turnover (check) 11) TD ratio of 1 every 30 plays: 75.0 (check) 12) Less than 8 impact plays allowed: 5 (check) 13) No more than 1 big play allowed: 1 allowed (check) 14) Pass rating below 125.0 allowed: 94.8 (check) Score: 11 of 14 (78.6 %) Special Teams Report Card: 1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): 43.3 (check) 2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): 0.0 (check) 3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): 18.5 (check) 4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): 21.0 (check) 5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): 24.3 (check) 6) PAT’s (100%): 100.0 (check) 7) FG Pct (75% or above): 0 for 1 (failed) Score: 6 of 7 (85.7%) Remember the key is to pass 50.0% of the categories. 2nd time this season all three phases had passing grade. War Eagle!