PChamp119 96 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Miami Loses. It's that simple. I did some calculating. At the worst possible scenario, a Miami loss this week would give Auburn 0.93374359 points and Oklahoma would have 0.928404372 points. These are based on the following assumptions (These are to Oklahoma's benefit only, which is why I said "at worst" up above": 1) Miami's #1 vote in Coaches Poll goes to Oklahoma and Oklahoma receives all the current #1 votes they have now and the rest are #2 votes. Auburn receives nothing but #3 votes. (Right now I'm assuming Auburn is getting some #2 votes in the Coaches Poll, but I'm not considering my guessing here). 2) Oklahoma's #1 votes in the AP poll stay the same and the rest of the voters rank them #2. Auburn receives nothing but #3 votes except the 2 voters that ranked Auburn #1. (Again, I'm assuming someone has voted Auburn #2, but I'm not gonna consider my guessing here). 3) Utah remains undefeated and stays ahead of Oklahoma in the Computer Rankings. This is what it would look like: Team AP Points % Coach Points % COMP Rank Points % BCS Avg USC 1610 0.990769231 1514 0.992786885 1 99 0.99 0.991185372 Oklahoma 1573 0.968 1475 0.967213115 4 85 0.85 0.928404372 Auburn 1497 0.921230769 1403 0.92 2 96 0.96 0.93374359 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgufcm 4,096 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 much as i'd like to believe, it's too liquid. the computers are more responsive than humans so each tough game ou plays (like okstate and tam back to back on the road) will boost them in the computer polls. the same could happen for us, but we've got a kentucky on the schedule to drop us. no telling where everyone ends up week to week with the computers. the poll numbers you've got are pretty interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue72 0 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 You also assume that we win out....... take it one game at a time and let the system work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURainman 6 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Auburn is Orange Bowl Bound If.... WE WIN OUT!!!! Unbelievable people. Don't think UGA doesn't have this game circled. We're not out of the woods yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasLSUTiger 0 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Welcome to the world of BCS watching, its gut wrenching, frustrating and exciting. KEEP THE TITLE IN THE SEC....... I believe if Auburn wins out, there is no possible way they can be kept out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydubb121 22 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 I believe if Auburn wins out, there is no possible way they can be kept out of the game. 112836[/snapback] I would have said the same thing last year about USC, we know how that turned out. The two best teams didn't end up playing for the MNC. If we win out(including the bowl) I don't give a **** what the BCS says. One at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubie7 0 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 BEAT KENTUCKY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PChamp119 96 Posted October 19, 2004 Author Share Posted October 19, 2004 Sorry Guys I just found a boo boo in my system. I missed one thing... OU would beat us out by 0.001327449 points. But again that assumes OU gets all those #2 votes and Auburn gets none. So we would probably still jump them. But that would be just this week. But because the Computers love Auburn and hate OU, OU can't really go anywhere but up. As teams in the top 10 lose (which they will), OU will climb in the computer rankings. Sorry for the information. I should've waited until I saw this mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jared52 4,354 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Well, I say lets play the games and argue when the final standings are posted. Either way, nothing we say will change the Big Crappy System. I hate it, I hate it, I hate it, but it's the law right now. We win the SEC, and we can call it a successful season. Not one LSU fan would say last year wasn't worth it. Did they deserve to play USC? Yes. But kudos also to the system not penalizing a team for playing and losing a game that USC is/was not subjected to. The championship games make the BCS unstable and shouldn't affect the NC game. Championship games should be "exhibition' with only the conference championship at stake. Of course you cannot change the minds of the voters if they see a loss, but locking in the BCS standings before the championship games would prevent the losses from affecting final standing. Here's to a playoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasLSUTiger 0 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 I would have said the same thing last year about USC, we know how that turned out. The two best teams didn't end up playing for the MNC. If we win out(including the bowl) I don't give a **** what the BCS says. 112836[/snapback] Well thats debateable, the best team between USC and OU (LSU was #2 in all three polls). Had USC played more then 1 ranked team all year and actually lost to a Ranked team, I might have agreed USC belonged there over OU. But the beauty (if there is such a thing) of the BCS is that media bias and clueless AP writers dont decide the fate of teams, logic does.... Fact is Auburn would have played a MUCH MUCH more difficult schedule then USC (Or OU) surving the SEC. That is what the media does not get. Also Auburn aside from LSU has beaten everyone pretty bad. USC has struggled and arguably should have lost twice already. OU has played UT so far... Thats about it... Auburn has beaten the defending national champion AND went on the road to Rocky Top and put a beating on them. Thats a resume so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueTiger 0 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 You also assume that we win out....... take it one game at a time and let the system work. 112828[/snapback] There is no way of knowing what is in store for us. We must win out but first we must do this by winning game by game. Us as fans can look down the road but the team must be focused on each game. I would give the advice to not look down the road as fans but I know its hard. WAR EAGLE All I have to say is if we were 0-7 right now I would still say WAR EAGLE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PChamp119 96 Posted October 19, 2004 Author Share Posted October 19, 2004 Last thing: I missed 2 Auburn votes in there, so the lead is down to 0.000917192 for OU. I know it is complete, no other changes will happen. Again this is if Auburn were to receive nothing but #3 ranking votes. All it will take is a total of three votes of either Auburn #2 or OU #3 (except those 2 votes where AU is #1) from the human polls to put Auburn ahead of Oklahoma. I think that will happen, so Auburn would be ranked ahead of OU in the BCS if Miami loses. Also, with the computer rankings, we really want Tennessee, Utah, and FSU to winout. We don't want OU jumping those schools in the computer rankings. The computers love Auburn and not too fond of OU. So those teams winning out will help Auburn in the computers. Auburn is already ahead of those teams and OU is behind them in most of the computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadillacattack 0 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Something else to consider. Of the top 5 teams currently in the BCS, I’m predicting that Miami has the most likely opportunity to drop a game between now and the end of the regular season. USC has almost no real threat standing in the way of an undefeated season, nor do they play in a conference championship game that dilutes the schedule strength component of the BCS computer segment. Oregon State and Notre Dame are the most likely opponents with the best chance of upsetting the Trojans, but that’s not saying much since they’re both fodder for a team like USC. Oklahoma only has one opponent, perhaps Ok State, that stands in it’s way, though many consider Texas A&M to have a shot. Nebraska would need to improve by a country mile before presenting a legitimate challenge to the Sooners. Miami – has NC State and Virginia (at Blacksburg) remaining and has looked less than “championship caliber†thus far this season. Despite the poor performance by Groh’s team at FSU, they match up well against the Hurricanes and Blacksburg is a difficult road trip for the best of teams. Auburn – Georgia is the key and everybody knows it, including Mark Richt. I don’t see UGA being able to stop a balanced attack, especially at J-H this season. AU has it rollin’, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t be favored to beat the Dawgs. Florida State – no reason to believe that Bobby & the boyz won’t run the table with the remainder of their schedule, with games at NC State and Florida the only significant hurdles. Lord knows, he won’t need to worry about officiating. JMO, but I see Miami losing one, prolly to Virginia but maybe to NC State. Under these circumstances, USC and OU would beat OU in the Orange, an undefeated AU would play a one-loss FSU in the Sugar. AU destroys FSU and voilla! …. Split National Championship with USC. WDE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURainman 6 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Something else to consider. Of the top 5 teams currently in the BCS, I’m predicting that Miami has the most likely opportunity to drop a game between now and the end of the regular season.USC has almost no real threat standing in the way of an undefeated season, nor do they play in a conference championship game that dilutes the schedule strength component of the BCS computer segment. Oregon State and Notre Dame are the most likely opponents with the best chance of upsetting the Trojans, but that’s not saying much since they’re both fodder for a team like USC. Oklahoma only has one opponent, perhaps Ok State, that stands in it’s way, though many consider Texas A&M to have a shot. Nebraska would need to improve by a country mile before presenting a legitimate challenge to the Sooners. Miami – has NC State and Virginia (at Blacksburg) remaining and has looked less than “championship caliber†thus far this season. Despite the poor performance by Groh’s team at FSU, they match up well against the Hurricanes and Blacksburg is a difficult road trip for the best of teams. Auburn – Georgia is the key and everybody knows it, including Mark Richt. I don’t see UGA being able to stop a balanced attack, especially at J-H this season. AU has it rollin’, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t be favored to beat the Dawgs. Florida State – no reason to believe that Bobby & the boyz won’t run the table with the remainder of their schedule, with games at NC State and Florida the only significant hurdles. Lord knows, he won’t need to worry about officiating. JMO, but I see Miami losing one, prolly to Virginia but maybe to NC State. Under these circumstances, USC and OU would beat OU in the Orange, an undefeated AU would play a one-loss FSU in the Sugar. AU destroys FSU and voilla! …. Split National Championship with USC. WDE! 112904[/snapback] I find the lack of Wisconsin from your analysis intriguing. Hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadillacattack 0 Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Wisconsin is a good, solid football team. But anybody that's not already ahead of Saint Bobby won't get ahead of him unless FSU loses, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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