Why Auburn will Beat UAT

[moe 0]

Summary (for those that don’t like to read the details)

1) Bammer has beaten every team with QB efficiency of 98th or worse, and lost to every one else. AU is rated 2nd.

2) Bammer has lost to every top 40 rushing team they’ve faced this year. AU is 20th.

3) Bammer has beaten every team with an offense rated 76th or worse, and lost to every one else. AU is rated 19th.

4) Bammer has lost to every top 50 rushing defense they’ve played this year. AU is 12th.

5) Bammer has beaten every defense rated 59th or worse in scoring defense, and lost to everyone else. AU is rated #1 in the country in scoring defense.

AU 34 – bammer 3.

Here’s the long version, if you’re interested

1) JC is by far the best QB bammer has faced all year.

Bammer has only faced 4 teams with QB efficiencies better than 98th (out of 117 div 1A teams). They’re 0-4 against them. Average score, bammer 6.5, opp 22.5.

They’ve faced 6 teams with QB efficiencies of 98th or worse. They’re 6-0 against them. That means all 6 are in the bottom 20 in the country (well, WCU is 1AA, but they project in as 98th, even granting them the easier competition).

Believe it or not, bammer has not faced a top 50 passing team this year. Arkansas is 57th, and everyone else is worse.

Bammer has not faced a top 20 QB this year. Matt Jones is the highest. He’s the 24th rated QB, and the only top 30 QB they’ve played this year. They have nothing on their scout team to practice against, either. How can they even prepare for JC?

AU’s QB efficiency is 2nd in the country.

2) bammer loses to good rushing teams, and AU is the best rushing team bammer has seen this year.

Bammer has played 3 top 40 rushing teams this year, and lost to all 3 by an average of 17 points. None of these three teams were even in the top 20 rushing teams (22, 35, 39).

Of course, bammer is 6-1 against teams rated lower than 40th in rushing offense.

AU is 20th in the country in rushing.

3) bammer gets easily beaten by a decent offensive team

All 4 of bammer’s losses are to teams with offenses better than 50th (28, 41, 44, 57). Bammer has not faced a top 25 offense this year.

All 6 of bammer’s victories are over teams with a total offense of 76th or worse.

Auburn’s offense is 19th.

4) bammer won’t be able to run the ball on Auburn

Bammer has played 3 good rushing defenses, and is 0-3 against them.

Bammer ran for 82 vs LSU, 105 vs UT, and 143 vs South Carolina. LSU and Auburn have about the same level of run defense.

The other 7 opponents’ rushing defenses were 50th or worse in the country.

All 6 bammer victories are against teams with a run defense of 72nd or worse.

Auburn’s is 12th in rushing defense.

5) bammer won’t be able to score on AU

Bammer has faced 4 defenses in the top 50 in scoring (LSU=10, USC=28, UT=34, Ark=44), and is 0-4 against them.

All 6 bammer victories are against defenses ranked 59th or worse in scoring.

AU is ranked #1 in the country on defense.

[AuNuma1 1]

Yeah, on paper this game looks like a 56-6 type game but that's why they actually play the game. I think with emotions and all, uat will not roll over. If our guys go in there expecting them to roll over, we could get beat. I think it will be a decent game until the 3rd or 4th quarter. I just don't see uat scoring more than 10 points.

[DKW 86 7,419]

Great Post.

Interesting to consider, but dont bet on the game looking at those stats. Anything can happen.

[moe 0]

I agree anything can happen...but Bama should just shut up with this great defense stuff

[AuNuma1 1]

I agree anything can happen...but Bama should just shut up with this great defense stuff

Let 'em have it...they got nothing else.

[WarTim 3,456]

Correction: NEVER use capital letters when spelling u a t .

Thank You.....Carry on.

WAR EAGLE...O N E at a time.

[vatz22au 142]

Correction: NEVER use capital letters when spelling u a t .

Thank You.....Carry on.

WAR EAGLE...O N E at a time.

123538[/snapback]

Oh timmy...you always throw in a good hit line to give me a good chuckle during the day

[AUTaxMan 0]

The game will not be close. Expect a 20+ point win.

[CarolinaTiger 0]

The game will not be close.  Expect a 20+ point win.

123560[/snapback]

man i hope you are right.

i wish i had the confidence born of the 00s, not the pessimism born of the 70s.

ct

[Bottomfeeder 244]

I'm smelling a shutout, because the Tigers need something to put them ahead in the poles.

[RollTideRoll 0]

I do not think you will see a shut out... while I am sure our offense will not score much on you, I think our defense will put some points on the board. I still think you guys will win, but I do not see a 70-point thrashing.