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More Bama numbers to ponder...


StatTiger

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I believe that Alabama has a good enough defense to disrupt the timing of our offense. In fact, I think there is a good chance that Bama could hold Auburn under 400-yards because LSU did it. However, I do believe that we are a much better and confident offense than we were when we played LSU earlier this season. For the season, Alabama has held their opponents to -110 yards less than what their opponents have averaged on the season. This excludes their game against Western Kentucky. Auburn's defense has held their opponent's to -87 yards less than their opponent's average. This excludes the Citadel game. If this trend continues than Auburn gains 321 yards to Bama's 251 yards. Auburn under CTT is 14-0 against SEC teams, when their opponents are held to under 295 yards. Please keep in mind that Bama's starters on defense played more often than Auburn's starters because of the many blowouts Auburn had.

Bama's ability to hold their opp to -110 yards less than their opp average sounds impressive until you examine their opponent's strength.

Looking at their games against SEC opponents and Southern Miss, Bama's run defense held their opponents to -27 yards less than what their opponents normally averaged rushing the ball. In fact, Arkansas has averaged 200 rushing but gained 211 against Bama. USC has averaged 179 but gained 203 against Bama. LSU averaged 173 per game but gained 192 against Bama. Against the three best run offenses, Alabama gave up +18 yards more than what their opp averaged for the season.

Against Auburn, Alabama's defense will not only face the best run offense but the best pass offense they have seen this season. I wonder how much worse it would have been for Alabama had the Razorbacks, Gamecocks and LSU Tigers had a quality passing game to go along with their running game? I don't see Auburn having a 35+ point game or over 500-yards in offense. Make no mistake about it, Alabama has a good defense but it will take a major collapse for AU's offense to be completely shutdown. I see 24-28 pts and 360-400 yards.

:au: 28 :ua: 12 :cheer::cheer:

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The sum of Auburn's opponents Avg Score is 225.4, Auburn has given up 93 points. A difference of 132.4 spread over the course of ten games mean AU holds their opponents 13.24 points below their average. AU opponent's winning percentage is .473 and the average scoring margin for them is -2.25.

The sum of USC's opponents Avg Score is 247.3, USC has given up 116 points. A difference of 131.3, spread over the course of their ten games means USC holds their opponents 13.13 below their average. USC opponent's winning percentage si .490 and the average scoring margin for them is +1.58.

The sum of OU's opponents Avg Score is 309.5, OU has given up 161 points, a difference of 148.5, spread over the course of their ten games means OU holds their opponents 14.85 below their average. OU opponent's winning percentage is .570 and the average scoring margin for them is +6.85.

This means that you guys still have an uphill battle. Beat BAMA and I will be in your corner, I loathe TN, and would love to see Auburn get some pay back on USC. If it comes down to OU and AU... then well, I'll be torn as I love OU, but would't that NC trophy look nice in Auburn.

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I just keep it simple:

Say our defenses are both so good we might call that a tie/wash.

Then the best offenses wins, and Auburn's offense is clearly superior to Bama's, particularly if Pennington and McClain are hobbled (..and Darby was practicing with a weak, tightly-taped ankle this week).

Guess we'll know in eight hours or less...

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We are better.  We will win.  Screw the stats.

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just think how many times this season our 1st defence has been taken out at halftime. and we still have the stats we do. same goes for our offence. just something to think about.

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