FSU run defense - a breakdown of opponents

[lylesm 6]

Great info! Thanks for the hard work and your time!!

[BirdofPrey76 0]

Whoever is defending Benjamin needs to be in his mustache all night.

[Plaric 4]

Shoot out with Auburns "D" getting more stops than theirs. Just have to maintain the ball. I think we see a repeat of the Mizzou game.

I hope so but I don't see fsu going to those wonky 3 man fronts like mizzou did

[AcUmen 242]

Another fun rushing stat--Auburn averages gaining 182 ypg more on the ground that their FBS opponents give up on average. Florida State averages holding opponents to 43 ypg less on the ground than their opponents gain. Advantage AU?

^This. In terms of percentages, AU rushed for 93% more than their opponent's allowed on average, while FSU held opponent's to 28% less than they averaged. Either way, that works out to about 275 yards for AU. I'd take that all day.

True, but who has FSU played that had a real rushing threat? I can name two teams that are good but not great: Boston College and Miami.

On the other hand pretty much every SEC team (especially in the west) has top tier RB's. LSU has some great ones who gashed AU pretty hard. Bammer, of course, has the best money can buy. Ole Miss, while more of a passing threat this year, can still run the ball better than most any team FSU faced. Same for MSU. And UGA with Gurley is better on the ground than most every team FSU has faced.

No doubt FSU's rushing defense stats were compiled against marginal rush offenses. However, their personnel are still blue-chip talent and you don't dominate/shut out offenses like they have without being good, regardless of the quality of the competition. I think Gus will give give them fits, but I'm not expecting another 500+ rushing production by AU in this game. It's going to be tight.

No doubt they have blue-chip talent. But it's not much better than bammer's. Bammer has the projected #1 safety in the draft (Dix) while FSU has the #2 safety. Bammer has 2 LB's that are scouted in the top 10 nationally, as does FSU. FSU has a star corner that's better than any bammer has, but bammer will have 2 corners that will probably go in later rounds. FSU is probably a bit stronger on the D-Line, but bammer runs the 3-4 and has never put emphasis on pass rushing.

I am tired of FSU people saying AU has faced no defense like theirs. False. But it is fair to say that FSU has faced no offense like AU's.

[WarTiger 3,901]

Another key point ( I admit I didn't read the entire thread) is this. We all know fsu played far inferior competition all season. Their offense was good enough and consistent enough to get them significant early leads. As a result of those leads, their opponents were often forced out of what they really wanted to do on offense and felt they needed to pass the ball more to get back in the game. As a result, fsu looks like a world beater at stopping the run on defense, when the reality is, its only significantly weaker competition that abandoned the run when they got behind.

[aushrink 22]

Another key point ( I admit I didn't read the entire thread) is this. We all know fsu played far inferior competition all season. Their offense was good enough and consistent enough to get them significant early leads. As a result of those leads, their opponents were often forced out of what they really wanted to do on offense and felt they needed to pass the ball more to get back in the game. As a result, fsu looks like a world beater at stopping the run on defense, when the reality is, its only significantly weaker competition that abandoned the run when they got behind.

right.

Gus will not abandon the run.

[texasautiger 0]

Regarding the theory that FSU's rushing defensive stats are inflated due to opponents abandoning the run, FSU is ranked 39th in fewest rushing attempts per game at 37.15 att/game. That would seem to support the theory, however I should note that AU is ranked 27th at 35.77 att/game, and we all know AU didn't get many big leads to cause teams to abandon the run. Bama, LSU, Mizz, & MSU all had lower opponent rush attempts per game than FSU also.

However, on a yards per carry basis, FSU ranks 9th in the nation for lowest ypc allowed, ahead of Bama at 16th. Of course, Bama also has AU's rushing stats dragging their ranking down. Remove the AU game, and Bama jumps to 6th!

I still think the most telling stat is how much a team holds their opponent under that opponents average. FSU holds opponents to 43 yards less than their avg rushing ypg. Now, as far as comparisions go, Bama held opponents to 68 yards less (including holding AU to 25 yards under their average). Therefore, I'd say FSU's rushing D is comparable to Bama's, but definitely not superior IMO.

[lca408 366]

While schematically, FSU is similar, the level of competition that both have played is out of whack. FSU's defense, while fundamentally good, hasn't been proven against an established power run team with the exception of Boston College - currently ranked 20th in national rushing offense. In that game, they gave up 200 yards rushing - 149 of that by Andre Williams alone. Alabama on the other hand, did not give up more than 200 yards all season until playing Auburn - all of that accomplished against overall better competition throughout the season. The closest team to BC that Bama played was Arkansas, less than 200 yards and less than 100 yards by the primary back - Alex Collins.

Kind of like going into the Alabama game, we knew Auburn WOULD be able to run against the Tide but how much was up in the air. Going into this game, FSU's defense is comparable but only in scheme and stats against weaker competition. I have no doubt Auburn will be able to effectively run the ball against the Seminoles. That doesn't mean we win the game, but they will not shut down our offense.

Ryan

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

I bet FSU is working hard on their run defense. I hope we are working hard on our passing and can surprise them a bit.

I think turnovers and penalties could be a major factor in this game. Anyone have the stats for both teams in these areas?

[selias 2,398]

I bet FSU is working hard on their run defense. I hope we are working hard on our passing and can surprise them a bit.

I think turnovers and penalties could be a major factor in this game. Anyone have the stats for both teams in these areas?

Nick and the WR corps need to practicing their timing outside of the scheduled practices as well.

[texasautiger 0]

I bet FSU is working hard on their run defense. I hope we are working hard on our passing and can surprise them a bit.

I think turnovers and penalties could be a major factor in this game. Anyone have the stats for both teams in these areas?

FSU is ranked 4th in the nation in turnover margin, with 34 takeaways and 17 giveaways. AU is tied for 60th with an even 18 each.

AU looks a little better in the penalty department, ranked 30th with 40.8 ypg while FSU is ranked 74th with 48.8 ypg.

FWIW, here is a summary of FSU's national rankings. Not many weaknesses I can see. Maybe net punting. Would love to see Davis break off a punt return for a TD to seal the game. I think we'd be making a statue of him if that were to happen

[TheBlueVue 177]

I have heard several pundits say the lay off favors FSU. Honestly, I dont get that. It seems to me that the passing game requires more precision insofar as route running and delivering the ball on time while Auburn's blocking schemes are really pretty simple. Both teams have the same challenges in terms of getting ready for this game. FSU is another team in a line of of really good teams Auburn has played this year. Auburn IS the line of good teams FSU will have played this year. Is there an advantage in that? I think there is and that edge easily goes to Auburn. I like Auburn in this game, i really do. Not without a struggle because FSU is a really good team but, after all's said and done, I like Auburn being the more battle tested team to use that experience as an advantage in getting the win.

[selias 2,398]

I have heard several pundits say the lay off favors FSU. Honestly, I dont get that. It seems to me that the passing game requires more precision insofar as route running and delivering the ball on time while Auburn's blocking schemes are really pretty simple. Both teams have the same challenges in terms of getting ready for this game. FSU is another team in a line of of really good teams Auburn has played this year. Auburn IS the line of good teams FSU will have played this year. Is there an advantage in that? I think there is and that edge easily goes to Auburn. I like Auburn in this game, i really do. Not without a struggle because FSU is a really good team but, after all's said and done, I like Auburn being the more battle tested team to use that experience as an advantage in getting the win.

The key is to keep the pressure on them. Match them score for score. They have yet to be tested by someone who punches back.

[TheBlueVue 177]

I have heard several pundits say the lay off favors FSU. Honestly, I dont get that. It seems to me that the passing game requires more precision insofar as route running and delivering the ball on time while Auburn's blocking schemes are really pretty simple. Both teams have the same challenges in terms of getting ready for this game. FSU is another team in a line of of really good teams Auburn has played this year. Auburn IS the line of good teams FSU will have played this year. Is there an advantage in that? I think there is and that edge easily goes to Auburn. I like Auburn in this game, i really do. Not without a struggle because FSU is a really good team but, after all's said and done, I like Auburn being the more battle tested team to use that experience as an advantage in getting the win.

The key is to keep the pressure on them. Match them score for score. They have yet to be tested by someone who punches back.

I agree with one caveat...it could be them having to match us score for score.

[triangletiger 1,599]

Regarding the theory that FSU's rushing defensive stats are inflated due to opponents abandoning the run, FSU is ranked 39th in fewest rushing attempts per game at 37.15 att/game. That would seem to support the theory, however I should note that AU is ranked 27th at 35.77 att/game, and we all know AU didn't get many big leads to cause teams to abandon the run. Bama, LSU, Mizz, & MSU all had lower opponent rush attempts per game than FSU also.

However, on a yards per carry basis, FSU ranks 9th in the nation for lowest ypc allowed, ahead of Bama at 16th. Of course, Bama also has AU's rushing stats dragging their ranking down. Remove the AU game, and Bama jumps to 6th!

I still think the most telling stat is how much a team holds their opponent under that opponents average. FSU holds opponents to 43 yards less than their avg rushing ypg. Now, as far as comparisions go, Bama held opponents to 68 yards less (including holding AU to 25 yards under their average). Therefore, I'd say FSU's rushing D is comparable to Bama's, but definitely not superior IMO.

I think part of the explanation for this may lie in the time of possession for the opposing teams. It seems that there were some games this season where Auburn dominated the time of possession. This would limit the number of snaps for the opposing team and, hence, the number of rushing attempts. This is just a theory, though. I haven't checked the stats.

[bzlivn 0]

Now THAT'S good stuff. Nice job!

Not sure first drive will give good indication. Both teams are probably going to show neances to what they typically do to counter what the other team has on film. Both teams will have to adjust a bit to get the players in the best position to make plays.

[Bottomfeeder 244]

Here's a site talking about how to stop Gus' offense:

http://kentucky.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=1430&tid=195520787&mid=195520787&sid=888&style=2

I, personally, believe FSU will try something like a 4-4 stack to stop AU's running game. Just a thought.

http://www.google.co....57967247,d.eW0

Gus featured on that site as well.

http://fastandfuriou...-presentations/

Here's StatTiger talking about the 4-4 stack against Alabama in 2009:

http://www.aufamily....n/#entry1307756

Here's a forum talking about Gus when he was at Shiloh.

http://www.fearlessf...c=50118.95;wap2

Here's a discussion about FSU's defense from September. They run a 3-4, 4-3.

http://miamiherald.t...ve-preview.html

[AUY2K 258]

saban had 2 weeks to prepare for our offense and he couldnt stop it.

[texasautiger 0]

saban had 2 weeks to prepare for our offense and he couldnt stop it.

^This. All the pundits talk about how FSU has an advantage, because unlike the other teams AU played, they have more than a week to prepare. They all seem to forget that Bama played a high school team the week before the Ironbowl. Oh, and Bert said that his team even spent time in the Spring preparing for AU, and still couldn't stop it (though they did hold us to our 2nd lowest ypc, so there's that).

[Bottomfeeder 244]

Gus can out think them on the fly.

[texasautiger 0]

I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but people seem to be getting caught up in AU's offensive scheme and how to defend it while overlooking the fact that, while yes the scheme is good, it's great right now because we've got a killer O-line. Hard to scheme against a team that can just straight up blow you off the ball.

[Auctoritas 2,828]

Here's a site talking about how to stop Gus' offense:

http://kentucky.riva...sid=888&style=2

I, personally, believe FSU will try something like a 4-4 stack to stop AU's running game. Just a thought.

http://www.google.co....57967247,d.eW0

Gus featured on that site as well.

http://fastandfuriou...-presentations/

Here's StatTiger talking about the 4-4 stack against Alabama in 2009:

http://www.aufamily....n/#entry1307756

Here's a forum talking about Gus when he was at Shiloh.

http://www.fearlessf...c=50118.95;wap2

Here's a discussion about FSU's defense from September. They run a 3-4, 4-3.

http://miamiherald.t...ve-preview.html

There is a ton of great information here, thanks for digging these up!

[Budapesttiger 2]

2 things:

1: I think the big plays early will be the pass off the option like the one to tie Bama.

2: the problem with the 4-4 stack in defending Auburn is that the guards and full back give is a numbers advantage. When Mason/Marshall gets past the first line there will be open field.

Ok 3 things.

3: texasautiger is right. Our o line is dominating. There's not really a scheme for that.

[wrongcliche 0]

Gus can out think them on the fly.

Good point. We've heard Gus say a couple times in post-game pressers that he "had a pretty good idea" what the defense would do "in that situation." One example I remember off the top of my head was post-Georgia when he was talking about the hail mary (and I think he would have preferred Nick throw it to Coates instead of Louis, but who's complaining!)

[VA Tiger 0]

I tend to think that we overlook what Bottom feeder is saying:

It's Gus against Jimbo Fisher. I like our odds.