Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
StatTiger

Statistical Model for winning the National Championship

15 posts in this topic

Just to give the reader a perspective of what it takes to win the National Championship, I have created a statistical model, which displays fifteen of the key statistics in College Football.

In the chart below, you will see the national averages in each rankings of the past 11 National Championship teams (2005-2015). The categories and national championship averages are in yellow.

You will then see the national rankings in each category by Auburn's football teams from 2015, 2014, 2013, 2010 and 2004. The next column listed behind each Auburn team, reveals how Auburn compared to the MNC Winners statistical averages. The numbers in red obviously reflect Auburn's shortcomings and the numbers shaded in orange reveal where Auburn had championship rankings.

MNC%20Stat%20Model_zpsdqs7z0ty.jpg

Note that the 15 categories are sorted by highest averages in each category, which likely shows the importance of each statistical category. The above numbers show that the MNC winners had an overall average of 22 from the 15 categories. In comparison...

Auburn in 2015 finished with an average ranking of 62.

Auburn in 2014 finished at 41 but were competitive in terms of offense.

Auburn in 2013 finished at 42 but once again was competitive when it came to offense.

Auburn in 2010 finished at 27, clearly in the "championship" range.

Auburn in 2004 finished at 24, clearly in the "championship" range though they were not forwarded the opportunity to play for it.

The above data paints a picture of where Auburn has been and where they are as of late. It clearly shows the areas Auburn must improve upon. As bad as this season was in 2015, don't lose sight Auburn has been in the picture 3 times in the last 11 seasons. Obviously the defense needs plenty of work but a good DL can make a huge difference on that side of the football. I do believe 2016 is a critical year for Gus Malzahn to place the offense on firm ground once again. Though special teams appears low on the list in terms of national rankings, special teams cost Auburn a championship in 2013 and Clemson one this season. Both teams were ranked low in kick-return defense and it came back to haunt them in the most critical game of the season.

Thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites




I thought we were always fairly poor on 3rd down defense. Didn't realize it was almost worst in country this season. Yikes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. Interesting IMO how our 2010 team got 'er done with big play makers on D when we overall had like the 60th ranked D nationally. Model anomoly? Remember Joe Scarborough's butthurt TV rant against Saban for blowing his 24-0 lead against us?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. Interesting IMO how our 2010 team got 'er done with big play makers on D when we overall had like the 60th ranked D nationally. Model anomoly? Remember Joe Scarborough's butthurt TV rant against Saban for blowing his 24-0 lead against us?

Combination of a great offense and a run defense ranked in the top-10. Completely snuffed out Oregon's run-offense in the championship game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, actually a better overall average in 2004 vs 2010. I wish Jacobs would grow a pair and claim the 2004 Championship!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, actually a better overall average in 2004 vs 2010. I wish Jacobs would grow a pair and claim the 2004 Championship!

That is because the 2004 team was better overall than the 2010 team. 2010 the most dominating player in college football at the most important position on the field (Cam) and one of the most dominating players in college football at arguably the most important position on D (Nick F.). 2004 was very good on both sides of the ball at just about every position.

wde

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Stat. That's a really interesting analysis.

The 2004 team was really balanced and I have always believed was the best overall team Auburn has fielded in the modern era. The 2010 team was truly dominant on offense and special teams, and although not overall great on defense, made a lot of stops when it counted. Lucky breaks are fun, but what goes around comes around. And once-in-a-generation athletes are equally rare. I'd love to see the kind of balance Auburn had in 2004 once again, and seeing that consistently, year after year, would be the ultimate.

Edited by AURex

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Defense wins championships. If coach Malzahn can get ghe qb production up and the defense improves we'll be in the hunt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. Interesting IMO how our 2010 team got 'er done with big play makers on D when we overall had like the 60th ranked D nationally. Model anomoly? Remember Joe Scarborough's butthurt TV rant against Saban for blowing his 24-0 lead against us?

Since the Tubberville era, any time we've had a decent D, it was predicated on the bend but don't break philosophy. While that style can effectively keep teams out of the end zone, it makes the number look awful, because it lets them rack up yards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. Interesting IMO how our 2010 team got 'er done with big play makers on D when we overall had like the 60th ranked D nationally. Model anomoly? Remember Joe Scarborough's butthurt TV rant against Saban for blowing his 24-0 lead against us?

I think that 2010 D also averaged only giving up like only 3 2nd half points per game too. Once they got to the 2nd half that D was actually REALLY good!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. Interesting IMO how our 2010 team got 'er done with big play makers on D when we overall had like the 60th ranked D nationally. Model anomoly? Remember Joe Scarborough's butthurt TV rant against Saban for blowing his 24-0 lead against us?

I think that 2010 D also averaged only giving up like only 3 2nd half points per game too. Once they got to the 2nd half that D was actually REALLY good!!

After the completion of 2010, I broke down the defensive numbers by halves. The second-half defensive numbers were top-20 material across the board. The Tigers made great second half adjustments that season. They were already a top-10 defense and played very well in 3rd & long. They also forced critical turnovers in several close games during 2010.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. Interesting IMO how our 2010 team got 'er done with big play makers on D when we overall had like the 60th ranked D nationally. Model anomoly? Remember Joe Scarborough's butthurt TV rant against Saban for blowing his 24-0 lead against us?

I think that 2010 D also averaged only giving up like only 3 2nd half points per game too. Once they got to the 2nd half that D was actually REALLY good!!

After the completion of 2010, I broke down the defensive numbers by halves. The second-half defensive numbers were top-20 material across the board. The Tigers made great second half adjustments that season. They were already a top-10 defense and played very well in 3rd & long. They also forced critical turnovers in several close games during 2010.

I'm not s statical expert by any means but I remember the Ted Roof halftime adjustments, always working out well in 2010.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stats are great to go by, but the number stat is this. Since 2013, how many SEC & National Championships has Gus Malzahn won as Auburn's head coach? 1 SEC Championship and ZERO National Championships. That is the only stat tha matters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stats are great to go by, but the number stat is this. Since 2013, how many SEC & National Championships has Gus Malzahn won as Auburn's head coach? 1 SEC Championship and ZERO National Championships. That is the only stat tha matters.

Man your act is getting old. We get it. Now stop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stats are great to go by, but the number stat is this. Since 2013, how many SEC & National Championships has Gus Malzahn won as Auburn's head coach? 1 SEC Championship and ZERO National Championships. That is the only stat tha matters.

So what does that make Pat Dye? I guess that makes Gene Chizik the best Auburn coach since Shug Jordan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0