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StatTiger

Notes on turnovers and results

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Turnovers and Results

  • From 1992-2015, when Auburn forces a turnover, it has been worth 3.4 points per turnover. Points scored off turnovers have accounted for 25 percent of the points scored by Auburn during this time period.

  • Last season the Auburn offense turned the ball over every 52.5 snaps. This was the 3rd best ratio by an Auburn offense over the past 35 seasons. Despite Auburn's offensive struggles during 2015, they did manage to take care of the football. In fact, Gus Malzahn's 2013, 2014 and 2015 teams finished in the top-5 of Auburn teams since 1981.

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  • On the flip side, the 2015 Auburn defense finished No. 33 among the last 35 Auburn defenses, forcing turnovers. The Tigers forced a turnover every 51.6 snaps, well off the mark of 1 every 31.1 snaps during the past 35 seasons. The 2013 Auburn defense was No. 34.

  • From 1990-2012, Auburn's defense recovered 50.2 percent of the opponent's fumbles. From 2013-2015, Auburn has recovered only 27.6 percent. When you consider a turnover is worth 3.4 points, Auburn has missed out on scoring opportunities.

  • From 1981-2007, Auburn's defense forced more turnovers during a season than touchdowns allowed in 19 of 27 seasons. The last time this occurred was in 2007.

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  • From 1981-2015, Auburn has compiled a win percentage of .764 during seasons the offense had a 2 to 1 ratio or better in touchdowns to turnovers. During the remaining seasons Auburn had a combined win percentage of .631.

  • From 1996-2015, Auburn has won 80 percent of their games they did not lose the turnover battle and only 41 percent when they lost the turnover battle.

Auburn's National Ranking in Turnover Margin:

  • 2000: 58th
  • 2001: 57th
  • 2002: 22nd
  • 2003: 59th
  • 2004: 42nd
  • 2005: 74th
  • 2006: 34th
  • 2007: 55th
  • 2008: 100th
  • 2009: 51st
  • 2010: 33rd
  • 2011: 45th
  • 2012: 107th
  • 2013: 61st
  • 2014: 29th
  • 2015: 53rd

More turnover tidbits:

  • During the 2014 season Auburn's defense was No. 21 nationally, forcing a turnover every 33.8 snaps defended. The 2015 Auburn defense dropped to No. 93 nationally with 1 every 51.6 snaps.

  • Gus Malzahn's offense had an average national ranking of No. 25 in TD-turnover ratio from 2006-2014. His 2015 offense was No. 57 nationally and his 2011 offense was No. 59. Excluding the 2011 and 2015 seasons, Malzahn's average ranking is No. 20.

  • From 2000-2008, Auburn's defense had an average national ranking of No. 26 in turnover / TD ratio. From 2009-2015, Auburn's nationally ranking has averaged out to No. 70.

  • From 2000-2015, teams in the Southeastern Conference that finished in the top-25 of turnover margin combined for a win percentage of 75 percent.

  • From 1996-2015, Auburn has compiled a record of 77-8-0, when the Tigers don't lose the turnover and tackle for loss battles during the same game.

Thoughts?

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What explains our drop from 50% fumble recovery rate to 25%? That is a big drop off.

I don't know. After 2014, I thought we would improve in 2015 under Muschamp because he places a lot of emphasis on having bodies around the ball. It is indeed a big drop off and something Auburn needs to improve upon.

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What explains our drop from 50% fumble recovery rate to 25%? That is a big drop off.

Part of it was just luck. We caused a bunch of fumbles that literally bounced right back into the guy who fumbled.

Edited by lionheartkc

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D ultimately wins championships.

wde

The teams that played in the MNC game the past 20 years along with USC in 2003 and Auburn in 2004 had an average ranking of No. 13 in scoring offense and No. 12 in scoring defense.

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