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StatTiger

Note on pass efficiency

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StatTiger    552

Crunching numbers for the longest time, I am always searching for the right number or combination of numbers for success. With this in mind, achieving a pass rating of 130 or better appears to be the statistical goal when it comes to pass offense. The average national ranking in pass-efficiency for the SEC Champion from 2000-2015 has been No. 16. The lowest ranking in pass-efficiency of the SEC Champion during this time period was No. 37 (LSU in 2007). Alabama was No. 34 during 2009 and 2015.

Here is a breakdown of the SEC teams during the same years Gus Malzahn has been at Auburn. This would cover six seasons (2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015). The data is sorted by the frequency each team reached at least 130 in pass-efficiency.

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The above data reveals it occurs about 53 percent of the time with a combined win percentage of nearly 82 percent. Alabama is No. 1 on the list, reaching 130 or better in over 70 percent of their games. One might assume they have done a better job of developing their quarterbacks and I would agree to an extent. I also believe their level of talent allows them to play "down hill" football more often than any other team in the SEC. In fact, their QB's during this time period have taken far fewer snaps trailing on the scoreboard than any other team in the SEC. It is much easier for any quarterback to have success, when he is surrounded by great talent.

Auburn is 5th on the list of 14 teams but possesses the 2nd highest win percentage when doing so. I found it interesting that LSU has the second most overall talent in the SEC yet struggle fielding a consistent pass offense. I also found it interesting that UGA is No. 3 in frequency but possessed the 3rd worst win percentage when reaching the 130 mark. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why Mark Richt was canned. Alabama was No. 4 nationally in passes attempted trailing on the scoreboard. Only 20 percent of their pass attempts came when trailing on the scoreboard, which was great for them considering they were No. 95 nationally in pass-efficiency on 3rd down.

Thoughts?

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AUbritt    136

This is interesting. I think you're right about Bama -- it's a lot easier for the QBs to play well consistently when surrounded by talent. But I'm also curious if you could factor in something like yards per attempt. (Showing my ignorance here, since that could be factored in to pass efficiency stats already.)

What I have in mind is the fact that one thing we have a tendency to do is take shots down field. When we're on, we run the ball just as well as Bama, if not better. But do we pass the ball downfield more, leading to less consistency?

Another way to put the question, or a similar one, would be whether you can factor in impact plays.

Hope that makes some sense.

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StatTiger    552

This is interesting. I think you're right about Bama -- it's a lot easier for the QBs to play well consistently when surrounded by talent. But I'm also curious if you could factor in something like yards per attempt. (Showing my ignorance here, since that could be factored in to pass efficiency stats already.)

What I have in mind is the fact that one thing we have a tendency to do is take shots down field. When we're on, we run the ball just as well as Bama, if not better. But do we pass the ball downfield more, leading to less consistency?

Another way to put the question, or a similar one, would be whether you can factor in impact plays.

Hope that makes some sense.

Average per pass attempt is a major factor in the Pass efficiency rating. More than big plays downfield, what Auburn lacked the most was an intermediate passing game.

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fredst    446

Missouri's win % is amazing in comparison to the rest. Pinkel(?sp) was a great coach in squeezing every ounce out of ability out of very average talent (albeit a small sample size).

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AUbritt    136

This is interesting. I think you're right about Bama -- it's a lot easier for the QBs to play well consistently when surrounded by talent. But I'm also curious if you could factor in something like yards per attempt. (Showing my ignorance here, since that could be factored in to pass efficiency stats already.)

What I have in mind is the fact that one thing we have a tendency to do is take shots down field. When we're on, we run the ball just as well as Bama, if not better. But do we pass the ball downfield more, leading to less consistency?

Another way to put the question, or a similar one, would be whether you can factor in impact plays.

Hope that makes some sense.

Average per pass attempt is a major factor in the Pass efficiency rating. More than big plays downfield, what Auburn lacked the most was an intermediate passing game.

Thanks.

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