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StatTiger

Note on offensive balance

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From 2000-2015, teams in the SEC compiled a win pct. of .942 when rushing for at least 200-yards with a passer rating of 130 or better.

Texas A&M ............. 21-0
LSU ........................ 48-1
Alabama ................. 55-2
Auburn ................... 63-3
Arkansas ................ 41-3
Ole Miss ................. 31-3
Miss State .............. 34-4

Florida .................... 40-1
Tennessee .............. 32-1
Kentucky ................ 19-1
S. Carolina .............. 28-2
Georgia .................. 34-3
Missouri ................. 10-1
Vanderbilt ............... 19-3

Even if you drop the rushing goal to 150-yards or better with a 130 passer rating or better, SEC teams have won .914 of their games from 2000-2015.

Auburn is 78-6 (.928) with the six losses by an average margin of 5.2 points. Even though Malzahn's offense accounted for only 6 of the 16 seasons, his offense accounted for 55% of the "150-130" games. Auburn is 42-4 (.913) with Malzahn's offense. Teamed with a better defense and the win percentage is likely hire.

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Great info.

We definitely lacked two things last season offensively. Balance and exectution.  Here's to hoping we can get back on track in 2016.

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1 hour ago, johnnyAU said:

Great info.

We definitely lacked two things last season offensively. Balance and exectution.  Here's to hoping we can get back on track in 2016.

We've been talking balance for several years but just can't seem to make it happen....mostly averaging about 70% of our offensive plays on the ground.  Wondering if this year will be any different ...especially if JF3 becomes the QB.

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1 hour ago, AU64 said:

We've been talking balance for several years but just can't seem to make it happen....mostly averaging about 70% of our offensive plays on the ground.  Wondering if this year will be any different ...especially if JF3 becomes the QB.

Think balance in efficiency not yardage.

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Auburn's offense under Malzahn has reached the 150 rushing and 130 pass rating in 53.8% of their games.

1993-2008, it happened 30.2% of the time.

Even if you were to look only at 1993, 1994, 1995, 2004 and 2005 (good offensive seasons), those 5 teams combined to accomplish the 150-130 goal 44.1% of the time.

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I guess it's efficiency that counts...but using 70% of your offensive opportunities to generate just over 50% of the offensive yardage. 

 

I know there is more to it than that but if you average about 4.3 YPC rushing and 7.4 yard per pass...maybe we should be passing more?   Just wondering .

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Execution, play calling, and tempo all were factors last year.  We were behind the chains in down in distance a lot.  We didn't have an incredible amount of negative plays but we did have a lot of 2nd and 8 and 3rd and 6+ plays.  If you run into a couple of those on a drive if you convert 50% you're doing great but if not then you're either punting or kicking field goals.  As has been preached by many especially Stat we need better execution and play calling on first down.  We have got to get away from the almost 100 % of the time run up the middle or bubble screen.   How about a roll out pass for a 5 yard gain come back with run up the middle then look at a third and very short possibly.  IMO nothing crazy but definitely need to help these inexperienced QBs out with some safe throws on first down.  

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2 minutes ago, corchjay said:

Execution, play calling, and tempo all were factors last year.  We were behind the chains in down in distance a lot.  We didn't have an incredible amount of negative plays but we did have a lot of 2nd and 8 and 3rd and 6+ plays.  If you run into a couple of those on a drive if you convert 50% you're doing great but if not then you're either punting or kicking field goals.  As has been preached by many especially Stat we need better execution and play calling on first down.  We have got to get away from the almost 100 % of the time run up the middle or bubble screen.   How about a roll out pass for a 5 yard gain come back with run up the middle then look at a third and very short possibly.  IMO nothing crazy but definitely need to help these inexperienced QBs out with some safe throws on first down.  

Been doing that with the safest possible passes on first down...bubble screens or whatever you can that quick out to the WR who just turns and catches (sometimes) the ball and then tries to shake loose for a gain.    Need a little more creativity.

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2 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Been doing that with the safest possible passes on first down...bubble screens or whatever you can that quick out to the WR who just turns and catches (sometimes) the ball and then tries to shake loose for a gain.    Need a little more creativity.

Yes that's what I was implying that almost 100 percent of the time it's either bubble screen or run up the middle.  But was also trying to say that due to our tendencies in play calling a safe down the field route is probably a good idea.  Doesn't have to be a bomb just a safe quick hitter for confidence building in the QB and statically for us it's easier to pass on first down then the other downs.

 

But I also know our route tree needs to be more diverse.  We need more rub/pick plays, more crossing routes short and intermediate, more out routes on the short side of the field.  

 

I think the route tree is simplified so the Qb can read coverage quicker in the HUNH and for timing.  But if SW is the QB we definitely need some more complex routes because he sees the field fairly well it appears.  

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On 7/16/2016 at 9:35 PM, StatTiger said:

Auburn's offense under Malzahn has reached the 150 rushing and 130 pass rating in 53.8% of their games.

1993-2008, it happened 30.2% of the time.

Even if you were to look only at 1993, 1994, 1995, 2004 and 2005 (good offensive seasons), those 5 teams combined to accomplish the 150-130 goal 44.1% of the time.

That tells me that what we are really missing under Malzahn is a consistently high level of defensive play.

Edited by homersapien

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I think that defense done right will put us in better position to have a more powerful offense that can be successful regardless if it is running the ball or passing. I do not know if it is just me, but we seem to not run many slant routes over the middle.  Is this due to the dynamics of a HUNH offense?  I do see this from other teams where the QB is under center.

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On 7/17/2016 at 0:22 PM, corchjay said:

Execution, play calling, and tempo all were factors last year.  We were behind the chains in down in distance a lot.  We didn't have an incredible amount of negative plays but we did have a lot of 2nd and 8 and 3rd and 6+ plays.  If you run into a couple of those on a drive if you convert 50% you're doing great but if not then you're either punting or kicking field goals.  As has been preached by many especially Stat we need better execution and play calling on first down.  We have got to get away from the almost 100 % of the time run up the middle or bubble screen.   How about a roll out pass for a 5 yard gain come back with run up the middle then look at a third and very short possibly.  IMO nothing crazy but definitely need to help these inexperienced QBs out with some safe throws on first down.  

Happens when you run the dive play over and over on first down. 

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35 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Happens when you run the dive play over and over on first down. 

Why do you think we did that?  It was so obvious what we were going to do.  Puzzling.  Were we trying to shorten the game to protect the D b/c he had no confidence in the offense to complete passes?

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7 minutes ago, AUDevil said:

Why do you think we did that?  It was so obvious what we were going to do.  Puzzling.  Were we trying to shorten the game to protect the D b/c he had no confidence in the offense to complete passes?

I'm as puzzled as anyone here as too why. 

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On 7/17/2016 at 1:37 PM, corchjay said:

Yes that's what I was implying that almost 100 percent of the time it's either bubble screen or run up the middle.  But was also trying to say that due to our tendencies in play calling a safe down the field route is probably a good idea.  Doesn't have to be a bomb just a safe quick hitter for confidence building in the QB and statically for us it's easier to pass on first down then the other downs.

 

But I also know our route tree needs to be more diverse.  We need more rub/pick plays, more crossing routes short and intermediate, more out routes on the short side of the field.  

 

I think the route tree is simplified so the Qb can read coverage quicker in the HUNH and for timing.  But if SW is the QB we definitely need some more complex routes because he sees the field fairly well it appears.  

 That called seemed to work pretty well when they were giving the ball to Tre behind Robinson or someone . Maybe the coaches don't realize the OL is not what it used to be . Perhaps 2016 will be a return to an OL that can impose its will. 

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2 hours ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Happens when you run the dive play over and over on first down. 

With a back that as much heart as he had, frankly was not explosive. Same plays got some better results later in the season when Jovon was out of Gus's dog house.

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According to Stats previous post on highs and lows Sean had right at a 130 rating in limited starts.  Things to be considered: he's was limited in his first couple starts, he was injured in his last couple starts.  I gotta believe a healthy Sean with a full off season of practice with the 1st team improves on 130.  Jovon, Martin, Kerryon, and Miller should add up to 150/game.  200 yards with that backfield should be an average output.  A top 50 defense would be one of the best under Gus.  Fingers crossed

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On 7/27/2016 at 9:10 AM, AUDevil said:

Why do you think we did that?  It was so obvious what we were going to do.  Puzzling.  Were we trying to shorten the game to protect the D b/c he had no confidence in the offense to complete passes?

 

I was told by an Auburn U employee that in order to get Muschamp to Auburn last season Gus had to promise to slow down his offense. 

Edited by ToomersStreet
typo

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21 hours ago, Win4AU said:

According to Stats previous post on highs and lows Sean had right at a 130 rating in limited starts.  Things to be considered: he's was limited in his first couple starts, he was injured in his last couple starts.  I gotta believe a healthy Sean with a full off season of practice with the 1st team improves on 130.  Jovon, Martin, Kerryon, and Miller should add up to 150/game.  200 yards with that backfield should be an average output.  A top 50 defense would be one of the best under Gus.  Fingers crossed

It would help Sean if the receivers could catch too.

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17 minutes ago, ToomersStreet said:

I was told by an Auburn U employee that in order to get Muschamp to Auburn last season Gus had to promise to slow down his offense. 

Muschamp IS an offense killer.  Borges O went downhill the longer he was here.

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22 minutes ago, ToomersStreet said:

I was told by an Auburn U employee that in order to get Muschamp to Auburn last season Gus had to promise to slow down his offense. 

First time I've heard that. Gus had to have more physical practices. 

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1 minute ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

First time I've heard that. Gus had to have more physical practices. 

Just repeating what I was told.  But it would explain why the offense was so inexplicably slow last season and despite Gus repeatedly saying he has to fix the offensive pace but never fixed it last year. 

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33 minutes ago, ToomersStreet said:

Just repeating what I was told.  But it would explain why the offense was so inexplicably slow last season and despite Gus repeatedly saying he has to fix the offensive pace but never fixed it last year. 

The offense was so slow last season primarily because of the need for continual substitutions. In many ways, it was a result of the injuries, because our most versatile players were on the sidelines. A lack of first down production also played into it.  I would not expect a repeat this year.

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2 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

The offense was so slow last season primarily because of the need for continual substitutions. In many ways, it was a result of the injuries, because our most versatile players were on the sidelines. A lack of first down production also played into it.  I would not expect a repeat this year.

I do believe the pace of last year was due largely to the substitutions and said so many times.  The question is do we have the personnel this year to not have to do so many changes.  Only time will tell.

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