StatTiger

Thoughts and Notes on SEC Defenses

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During the 1980's, offenses in the SEC averaged 355.3 yards per game.
From 2010-2015, offenses in the SEC have averaged 402.4 yards per game.

The days of holding opponents to under 300-yards and under 20 PPG are very rare. The current statistical goal on defense is holding opponents to under 340-yards and under 25 PPG is a more realistic goal.

With this in mind, here is the frequency of teams in the SEC holding their opponent to under 340-yards and under 25 PPG during the same game (2010-2015).

Teams Gms T-Gms Pct W L Pct W L Pct
Alabama 63 82 76.8% 61 2 0.968 72 10 0.878
LSU 46 78 59.0% 42 4 0.913 61 17 0.782
Florida 44 77 57.1% 35 9 0.795 47 30 0.610
Georgia 39 80 48.8% 36 3 0.923 56 24 0.700
Missouri 24 53 45.3% 18 6 0.750 51 27 0.654
South Carolina 33 78 42.3% 30 3 0.909 52 26 0.667
Arkansas 30 76 39.5% 27 3 0.900 43 33 0.566
Vanderbilt 26 75 34.7% 21 5 0.808 33 42 0.440
Ole Miss 25 76 32.9% 22 3 0.880 40 36 0.526
Miss State 25 78 32.1% 22 3 0.880 50 28 0.641
Tennessee 22 76 28.9% 18 4 0.818 37 38 0.493
Kentucky 21 73 28.8% 14 7 0.667 25 48 0.342
Auburn 22 79 27.8% 20 2 0.909 52 27 0.658
Texas A&M 14 52 26.9% 11 3 0.786 52 26 0.667

Alabama is clearly No. 1, reaching this goal nearly 77% of the time. It certainly takes the pressure off their offense. Alabama is 61-2, when they reach the defensive goal of under 340-25. Though Florida is No. 3 in the SEC, their win percentage of .795 when doing so is indicative of how poorly they have performed on offense. The average win pct in the SEC is .869, when holding the opponent to under 340-25.

From 2010-2015, teams in the SEC have reached the 340-25 goal 42% of the time, with Auburn next to last at 27.8%. If Auburn can improve to the 40% range, it will make a huge difference in Auburn's win percentage, especially if Gus has his offense rolling again.

From 1990-2008, Auburn compiled a record of 65-1 (.985) in games they had 400-yds and at least 30-pts during regulation.

From 2009-2015, Auburn is 38-5 (.884) in 400-30 games.

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Love the stats!

The offense definitely didn't do the defense many favors last year.

In 2014, I kind of felt like if we scored 35 points, then it was ours.  Up until the misery I suffered at that stadium in Tuscaloosa.  What a rude bunch of people. :)  Alabama is #1 in this category for sure.

I do feel that 35 points on offense should be the goal given the way the chart above states defensive quality.  I "love" fast play, but if the offense isn't producing going fast, then it needs to pace itself with the defense in mind.  I'm not questioning anything Coach M has done, I just think that is 'realistic'.

In any case, I agree that ANY TEAM MUST DEFENSIVELY perform below the 340-25 level to have a shot in the end.  Bammer's defensive numbers do speak for themselves; and with that, I am convinced that the 300-20 needs to be the goal.  I also see the 400-35 on offense as very much attainable this year.

I don't really feel that stating what is 'realistic' matters in the end (even when I do it :)) ; and, in answer to the twitter question, I say "no, the 300-20 days cannot be over!", or winning championships is going to be rare too.

War Eagle!

www.tigerterminal.com

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i remember that 30pt goal being a big deal when tubs was coach.  I can't remember who it was we lost to and scored 30.  I want to say it was UGA or Bama

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11 hours ago, Win4AU said:

i remember that 30pt goal being a big deal when tubs was coach.  I can't remember who it was we lost to and scored 30.  I want to say it was UGA or Bama

FSU Nat'l Champ game killed the 30 pt streak, I believe.

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The streak of 30 pt games and Tubs was pretty awesome. Lol but I can't lie, it seemed like whenever we would hit 17 points Tubs would say OK offense thanks for your contributions now we will just ask you to keep punting and have the defense win it for us.

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Personally, I'd much rather have a shutdown defense in the top 3 of the SEC than take a chance on a top 3 offense in the SEC.  Because as we all know from experience, offensive success or failure is so up and down and unpredictable.  When you are able to build a stout defense they can be depended on to carry their load and that takes the pressure off the offense to win games.

I'm just ready to see an AU offense that doesn't feel like they have all the pressure on them to execute to perfection to be successful.  It's high time the defense carries the weight for a change.  Get it DONE Coach Steele!

 

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I remember thinking "why is our defense so bad  when our head coach is a defensive guru?"  During the Chizik era.  Looking back I'd be interested to see how many of those 22 games were on his watch and how many have been Gus?  Chizik's defenses may have been on par with what we consider good defense today.  I was bored this weekend and watch parts of games from 2010.  Our front 7 played with some serious aggression.  Dbs not so much

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56 minutes ago, keesler said:

Personally, I'd much rather have a shutdown defense in the top 3 of the SEC than take a chance on a top 3 offense in the SEC.  Because as we all know from experience, offensive success or failure is so up and down and unpredictable.  When you are able to build a stout defense they can be depended on to carry their load and that takes the pressure off the offense to win games.

I'm just ready to see an AU offense that doesn't feel like they have all the pressure on them to execute to perfection to be successful.  It's high time the defense carries the weight for a change.  Get it DONE Coach Steele!

 

Keesler, you have a good point and we usually agree on things. But this time, I must say, after we've experienced the extremes of both sides of the spectrum -- Tubs with crappy offenses and awesome defenses, and with Gus the opposite -- that in today's climate it is probably better for us to be able to score gobs of points and have a less than ideal defense. The way offenses are now we have to be able to keep up, and defenses that are able to stop these types of offenses are rare. Regardless, in either scenario we are holding our breath for the entire 2nd half of either a 45-42 game or a 17-14 game. JMO of course.

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2 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Keesler, you have a good point and we usually agree on things. But this time, I must say, after we've experienced the extremes of both sides of the spectrum -- Tubs with crappy offenses and awesome defenses, and with Gus the opposite -- that in today's climate it is probably better for us to be able to score gobs of points and have a less than ideal defense. The way offenses are now we have to be able to keep up, and defenses that are able to stop these types of offenses are rare. Regardless, in either scenario we are holding our breath for the entire 2nd half of either a 45-42 game or a 17-14 game. JMO of course.

I see your point, and I agree somewhat.  I just wish there was a way to field BOTH quality units at the same time.  I don't know, maybe I'm just old school but I hate to see AU have to be so dependent on the QB position, and look totally inept and hamstrung in the play-calling because of sub par QB production. 

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13 minutes ago, keesler said:

I see your point, and I agree somewhat.  I just wish there was a way to field BOTH quality units at the same time.  I don't know, maybe I'm just old school but I hate to see AU have to be so dependent on the QB position, and look totally inept and hamstrung in the play-calling because of sub par QB production. 

I'm with you, man! When we hired Chizik and he hired Gus it seemed like, on paper, a match made in heaven. We had a defensive guru as the head coach who was willing to get a very bright, innovative offensive coordinator while committing to his style. Unfortunately we never saw Chizik's influence in terms the defensive production. And we are still searching for just an average defense. It's been almost 8 full years since we've had a defense that could be considered one that actually helps the team's cause rather than hurt it. :/

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