NEW FEATURE - Coach's Corner: Auburn vs. Clemson

[RunInRed 16,385]

Those of you who have followed Auburn on the Interwebs for any length of time are VERY familiar with John Ray's very sought after Coach's Corner.  We're pleased to announce that starting this season, these will be featured here at AUFAMILY.  Also, be on the lookout for his podcast, Auburn Football All-Access, and post-game reviews, Things I Think I Saw, which will also be featured here.

For those unfamiliar, let me introduce Coach John Ray (@JMR) ...

• John was a freshman football player at Auburn when his coach was the Auburn / Georgia man, Vince Dooley;
• John served honorably as a Marine in the Vietnam War;
• John was also a legendary high school football coach at Largo H.S. in central Florida;
• In terms of football IQ, I know of very few Auburn football observers who follow AU / SEC closely enough and can convey what's going on to a fan of any level as well as JR does.

We are thrilled to have Coach Ray aboard for the 2016 season.  Enjoy ...

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Coach’s Corner, Clemson 2016


Coach John Ray
Cohost, Auburn Football All-Access Podcast

Unranked Auburn will host the #2 Clemson Tigers this Saturday at Jordan Hare Stadium. Clemson, coming off a 14-1 season last year that ended in a 45-40 loss to Alabama in the National Championship Playoff Finals, is favored by roughly a touchdown. That spread looks small to some, given that Auburn finished 2015 with a record of 7-6.

Head Coach William “Dabo” Swinney is entering his 8th full season as the head man at Clemson, having taken over on an interim basis when former head coach Tommy Bowden resigned six games into the 2008 season. After going 25-16 in his first three full seasons, Swinney has the Tigers winning at a record pace, winning 10+ games 5 consecutive seasons. As everyone knows, Clemson was 14-1 in 2015, losing only to eventual National Champion Alabama in the championship game.

The Clemson Offense

Clemson returns 8 starters from one of the top-performing offenses in college football last year. Freshman All-America Mitch Hyatt (6-5, 295, Soph) returns at the all-important left tackle position. The purple-striped Tigers also return a fifth-year senior at center, and last year’s starter at right guard. So there will be two new starters along the offensive line, and those are expected to come from a group of backups who earned playing time last season. Offensive line coach Robbie Caldwell is one of the top OL coaches anywhere, and he seems to have his Clemson charges playing at a very high level year after year. Rest assured, that group will be well-coached and highly competitive.

Clemson is loaded at the skill positions on offense. The leader of the pack, of course, is quarterback DeShaun Watson. Watson (6-3, 215, Jr.) passed for more than 4100 yards and ran for a little over 1100 last year. That’s more offense than many teams put up in a season. Widely projected as the first overall pick in next year’s NFL draft, Watson is perhaps the top player in college football. He is surrounded by a group of outstanding wide receivers, one of the top tight ends in college football, and a strong battery of talented running backs. Tailback Wayne Gallman (6-0, 210, Jr.) has 12 100-yard rushing games to his credit, and is coming off a season in which he earned All-ACC honors. Gallman is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield, with 45 career receptions. Clemson has plenty of depth at running back, including true freshman Tavien Feaster (5-11, 215, Fr.), who was South Carolina’s Mr. Football in 2015 and Gatorade’s Track Athlete of the Year in 2014.

Tight end Jordan Leggett (6-5, 260, Sr.) returns as a starter. Leggett switches back and forth between tight end and H-back, and is an outstanding receiver. He has 66 career receptions, and improved dramatically as a blocker last season.

Wide receiver is a position of strength for Clemson. Despite losing one starter in Charone Peak, the WR group should actually be stronger than last year, due in large part to the return of Mike Williams, who suffered a season-ending injury in Clemson’s opening game last year. Williams, a 6-3, 225-lb senior, has 73 career receptions, and is regarded as Clemson’s best deep threat. Former walk-on Hunter Renfrow (5-11, 180, Soph) started 10 games last year after a redshirt year in 2014, and had 33 receptions. Renfrow caught two TD passes in last year’s championship game vs Alabama. Artavis Scott (5-10, 190, Jr.) has been an All-ACC wide receiver for two years already, and has 169 career receptions going into his third season at Clemson.

Like most good college football teams, Clemson likes to run the ball. But as they have a dynamic dual threat quarterback, they are actually very balanced on offense, running the ball 56% of the time, and passing 44%. That dual threat QB accounted for 347 yards per game of total offense in 2015. Watson attempted 491 passes, completing 333 (67.8%) for 35 touchdowns with 13 interceptions.

They are truly multiple in terms of offensive formations, lining up with two backs and a tight end, or four or five wide and everything in between. They will go empty, spreading the opposing defense out and creating room for Watson to create big plays.

Clemson Defense

Defensive Coordinator Brent Venables joined the Clemson staff in 2012 after a long and very successful run as a coordinator on Bob Stoops’ Oklahoma staff. Venables played his college ball for Bill Snyder at Kansas State, then spent three years as a graduate assistant for Snyder, followed by another three years on Snyder’s staff. Anyone who follows college football knows that if someone played and coached for Bill Snyder, they likely are hard-working and knowledgeable. Venables has certainly demonstrated those qualities at Clemson, leading the nation in total defense in 2014. In fact, in 20 years as an assistant coach, Venables’ teams have had 20 winning seasons, played in 20 bowl games, and won ten or more games 15 times.

Like almost every defense in football today, Clemson presents a multitude of alignments. They are, at their core, a four-man front, although they can make that look like a three or five-man. Versus today’s offensive formations, they typically utilize a fifth defensive back with two linebackers, unless the opposing offense’s formations bring the defense back to their base 4-3-4. Auburn will almost always be in three-wide or four-wide, and Clemson will likely be in some version of a 4-2-5 most of the game.

The strength of the Clemson defense appears to be in the middle, with talent and depth at defensive tackle, and a veteran linebacker anchoring the weak side. At the tackles are Carlos Watkins (6-3, 300, Sr.) and Scott Pagano (6-3, 295, Jr.). Both Watkins and Pagano started last year. There is quality depth there, with Albert Huggins (6-4, 295, Soph) and true freshman Dexter Lawrence (6-5, 340). Lawrence was a five-star recruit in virtually every recruiting service.

Defensive end is something of a question mark for the Tiger defense. Both starters from 2015 graduated, and projected starter Austin Bryant (6-5, 275, Soph) is injured and out for a few weeks. It appears that the starters at the two end spots will be sophomores Richard Yearin (6-3, 255) and Christian Wilkins (6-4, 315).

The linebacking corps is led by senior Ben Boulware (5-11, 240). Boulware is an exceptional run-stopper, and very capable pass rusher. Boulware will be joined by MLB Kendall Joseph (6-0, 230, Soph).

With only one returning starter in the secondary, Clemson’s coverage ability may be hampered by inexperience. Senior Cordrea Tankersly (6-1, 195, returns at one corner, but he’s the lone survivor in terms of experience in the secondary. The other corner is junior Marcus Edmond (6-0, 170), the strong safety is senior Jadar Johnson (6-1, 205), and the free safety is sophomore Van Smith (6-0, 190).

Clemson Special Teams

Anyone who watched Clemson in last year’s national championship game is probably inclined to believe the Tigers’ special teams were somewhere south of “special”. Alabama returned a kickoff for a touchdown and executed a successful onside kick in that game, both plays proving critical in the eventual outcome.

Reportedly, Dabo Swinney and his staff have spent lots of time in fall camp making sure their special teams issues have been corrected. Only time will tell. Both punter Andy Teasdale (5-11, 190, Sr.) and kicker Greg Huegel (5-11, 185, Soph) return as starters in those roles. Teasdall, now a grad student, was originally a walk-on. He averaged 39.6 yards per punt in 2015. Huegel walked on last year and was named an All-American by Sports Illustrated after making good on 27 of 32 field goal attempts (84%).

How Will They Play It?

When Clemson has the ball, it will be the DeShaun Watson Show. Watson is one of the best in the country at extending plays, buying time for situations to present themselves, and seizing the opportunity when it appears. I would think Clemson will want to run the football, but they are so good at throwing it, they will work at that as well. Watson is going to make some throws, and he is also going to pull the ball down and run. If he has a flaw, it is the one so many good quarterbacks have, and that is believing he can throw the ball through a window regardless of how small it might be. His receivers fight for the ball, and are very talented, but he will often throw the ball despite tight coverage.

With Auburn’s depth and physicality up front this season, I’d expect Clemson to work the ball outside often, sometimes with sweeps, bootlegs, or waggles, and sometimes with dumpoffs to Gallman, Feaster, or another running back in the shallow flat.

Dabo Swinney has talked enough over the summer to make it clear that he has no respect for Auburn as an opponent, and he will be inclined to take chances when given opportunities. I expect Clemson to throw the ball deep multiple times in the game, despite what should be a very good Auburn secondary. Clemson will use their tight end/H-back, and allow Watson to work the run-pass option to confuse the Auburn linebackers and safeties.

Defensively, Auburn will need to be disciplined and relentless in their pass rush and in their run fits. Clemson has big-play athletes, and not just DeShaun Watson. Disciplined defense….staying in rush lanes, executing backside trail responsibility, and gap discipline will all be critical in preventing big plays by the Clemson offense. Defensive backs are going to have to maintain coverage until the play is absolutely over, as Watson will extend plays no one expects.

When Auburn has the ball, I expect Malzahn, at some point, to try to establish some physicality in the run game.If he is able to do that, I’d expect lots of hurry-up and lots of running the football to try to beat Clemson down. I would guess that Clemson will game plan to force Auburn to throw the ball. After all, Auburn has virtually no proven wide receivers, and a quarterback who has thrown one touchdown pass in his college career.

If Auburn can’t execute in the passing game better than last year, it’s going to be a long night and a long season. The Clemson defense will be good enough that AU can’t just physically overpower them. Malzahn and Lashlee will need to force Venables to defend the entire field. Venables uses some fairly complex schemes, with the bottom line being to bring pressure. He likes to blitz, and uses multiple combinations to accomplish that, like dropping both ends and sending both linebackers. Despite his propensity for bringing pressure, he also likes to play a lot of zone coverage, believing that 7 or more defenders dropping into zones presents more difficult reads for the quarterback than does man coverage. It is often more difficult for a quarterback to make pre-snap reads and know who should be open if the defenders are dropping into zones from different places, like defensive end.

The most noticeable trait of Clemson’s defense in 2015 to me was that they played extremely hard. Almost never did I see a player take a play off. As that trait is likely to be a characteristic of this year’s Venables defense, each AU offensive player will need to bring his best on every play. That’s what it will take to execute and win.

For whatever reason you choose to accept, the Auburn offense was extremely predictable during the 2015 season. It’s one thing to be predictable when you are just so good that no one can stop you from doing what you want. It’s another thing when you need the help of some surprise element to make you effective. I’d say the “good news” on that front is that there’s plenty of “bait” in the water now to enable Auburn to mislead an opponent’s defense. For example, the first time AU picks up a first down and goes into hurry-up mode, any kind of fake of the inside zone play should draw all eleven defenders, opening up some other play incredibly. In fact, over the past 15 games or so, Auburn’s offense has established trends in play-calling that will be very difficult for opponents to ignore in their preparation. It will be extremely interesting to see if Auburn has self-scouted and eliminated most of that predictability.

One of the things Malzahn did in 2013 that was so impressive was outnumber the defense at the point of attack.  He did that by formation, or by pulling various linemen, or even by inserting an extra H-back and using two of those at times. It will be interesting to watch how this game unfolds tactically. Will Malzahn look over the Clemson defense and “take what they give you”, or will he formation that defense into looks that allow him to do what he chooses?

Will AU use the hurry-up/no huddle offense that Malzahn is famous for, or will there be mass substitutions whenever the offense reaches the red zone, the way we saw in 2015?

The Bottom Line

I would guess that many, maybe even most Auburn fans are not expecting much from their team this week. Maybe even this season. After all, 2015 was hardly a lot of fun, and beating Memphis in Birmingham was not nearly enough to make up for a 6-6 regular season. I’ve never been to Vegas, and have actually never placed a bet in my life. Wouldn’t even know how. But I believe the oddsmakers have Clemson as something like a seven-point favorite. If AU plays the way they did in 2015, the game won’t be nearly that close. But in terms of talent, there is not a great deal of separation between Clemson 2016 and Auburn 2016. The biggest difference in the two programs *at this point in time* are the two quarterbacks, and the two head coaches. DeShaun Watson is an exceptional dual threat quarterback, one who can win games throwing or running, or both. As Auburn fans know very well, those kind of athletes come along very seldom.

Dabo Swinney is near the top of the college football world. His team “nearly won the national championship” last year (where have I heard those words before?). His team has won ten games or more every year for five consecutive years. Gus Malzahn is coming off a 7-6 season, following an 8-5 the year before. But looking deeper into the pool, there are both differences and similarities in the two coaches.

Swinney has been the head coach at Clemson seven full years, plus one partial season. Gus Malzahn has been the head man at Auburn 3 full years, and is heading into his fourth. In Swinney’s first three full seasons, he compiled a record of 25-16. Clemson fans were calling for his firing. Malzahn’s first three years have yielded a record of 27-13. Some Auburn fans are calling for his firing, although most are waiting to see what 2016 brings. I can’t see the future, but I’d feel safe betting that Gus Malzahn will be a better coach in his 8th year at Auburn than he was in his third, just as Dabo Swinney is a better coach now than he was after three years as a head coach.

The point of all this is simply that there is really not that much difference in the two programs. Not nearly as much as most Auburn fans believe. There is no reason Auburn can’t win this football game. Clemson has the edge in some spots, Auburn has the edge in others. Chances are, the best-prepared team will win. Even the smallest details can make a difference. One of the *big* details….one that is almost certain to make a difference…is the home crowd at Jordan-Hare. If you can be there, Do Your Part. This game can get us back where we belong.

Knocking off the #2 ranked team to open the season would be huge, and it can certainly happen. But as Auburn football fights to get back to its rightful competitive place among the nation’s elite, “how we play” is almost as important in this game as winning. I won’t try to detail all the things I hope to see. Instead, I’ll just use the phrase a lot of old-timers like me often employ: “I’ll know it when I see it!” I think we’ll all know it when we see it, and frankly, I’m very much expecting that to happen.

John Ray is a former high school and college football coach, and co-host with Doug Dean on the highly rated Auburn Football All-Access podcast show.  Coach Ray's "Coach's Corner" will be featured on AUFAMILY.COM each week before SEC games and big non-conference games of interest.

 

[bigbird 60,496]

[kd4au 1,145]

Great addition to the site.

[AURex 1,994]

That was a good read. I'm looking forward to analyses like this before all of our other games this year. Thanks!

 

[JMR 2,118]

Hey, guys! Not trying to horn in over here at all. i just like what Rob has done and the reasons he does it, and thought I'd offer to share. I don't claim to know everything, and obviously there is a TON of guesswork in these "preview articles". Please enjoy the weekly input for what it is.....one old guy's opinion.

[FoundationEagle 637]

2 minutes ago, JMR said:

Hey, guys! Not trying to horn in over here at all. i just like what Rob has done and the reasons he does it, and thought I'd offer to share. I don't claim to know everything, and obviously there is a TON of guesswork in these "preview articles". Please enjoy the weekly input for what it is.....one old guy's opinion.

Great article. Very well written and many sound points. You are correct though, right now there is a lot of guessing. Sunday morning we will all be guessing a little less.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Sweet! I'm an avid listener and reader of Coach Ray's thoughts on Auburn. Glad to have you here @JMR.

War Eagle!

[Tiger 8,818]

This is going to be good reading material each week. Thanks.

[WarTim 3,456]

GREAT addition!! Thanks and WDE!!!

[AUsince72 11,084]

BIG fan of the podcast!!!  Great addition y'all!

War Eagle!

[telling tiger 156]

Welcome, War Eagle..............very nice work.

[ellitor 33,083]

Awesome addition & welcome coach. This will be awesome. We are so blessed to have football minds like @JMR & @Malcolm_FleX48 as well as the king of AU data & analysis @StatTiger

[ellitor 33,083]

For those of us who have not followed Coach Ray can we get a link to any other work he does? TIA

[lionheartkc 6,150]

31 minutes ago, JMR said:

Hey, guys! Not trying to horn in over here at all. i just like what Rob has done and the reasons he does it, and thought I'd offer to share. I don't claim to know everything, and obviously there is a TON of guesswork in these "preview articles". Please enjoy the weekly input for what it is.....one old guy's opinion.

Welcome aboard, sir.  We always love to hear what folks like you with years of knowledge and experience have to say.  Might I also recommend getting to know @Malcolm_FleX48.  He's a good kid with a heck of a lot of football knowledge. I bet someone with your background and experience would be a welcome sounding board as he finishes school and finds his next path in life.

[AUsince72 11,084]

16 minutes ago, ellitor said:

For those of us who have not followed Coach Ray can we get a link to any other work he does? TIA

There's always the War Eagle Sports Radio site: http://www.wareaglesportsradio.com/

This site is a repository for several different podcasts (some good, some well...)  Coach Ray is on the All Access Auburn podcast with Doug Dean.  They also have Stan White dropping by from time to time.  Excellent podcast!

It's available on-line (the link I provided) and is also a smartphone app available on Google Play (and I assume for iPhone).

I hope this helps.

War Eagle!

[autigersj 122]

59 minutes ago, JMR said:

Hey, guys! Not trying to horn in over here at all. i just like what Rob has done and the reasons he does it, and thought I'd offer to share. I don't claim to know everything, and obviously there is a TON of guesswork in these "preview articles". Please enjoy the weekly input for what it is.....one old guy's opinion.

Great job coach! Enjoyed the read!

[CR 2,442]

Enjoyed the analysis very much. Just curious, JMR, did you used to post on the old Alliance sports AU site back in the early to mid nineties?

[JMR 2,118]

Yessir, I was there pretty much from the beginning. Will Woods and I became friends, and I started writing articles to "help him get going". Who knew he'd eventually be a Vice President of Rivals, and one of the icons of the whole "internet sports" biz?

[80Tiger 899]

Good detailed factual information. I have to admit though, when you read the differences between the teams 2 offenses, it gets kind of scary, especially the skill positions.

[JMR 2,118]

They're LOADED at the skill positions. And no offense to Sean White, but they have THE quarterback. I honestly believe if Deshaun Watson had signed with us, we'd be in the hunt for the big marble.

Edited September 2, 2016 by JMR
8

[CR 2,442]

Thought I remembered your write-ups from back in the day. Glad to have you posting here I've always enjoyed your insights.

[3rdgeneration 6,469]

Thanks, coach! Enjoyed the read. In terms of Sean White, I just think we haven't seen the real Sean White yet. While he might not be elite talent, I think he has intelligence and courage, which goes a long way. I am really looking forward to seeing how disciplined the defense is under Kevin Steele. The leadership we have on that side of the ball should help, too. Looking forward to hearing your post-game thoughts. WAR EAGLE!!!! BEAT clemson!!!! 

[AUIH1 1,515]

Outstanding addition to this message board!!

 

wde

[AUFAN78 3,894]

Excellent analysis coach and welcome aboard! WDE!

[doc4aday 1,887]

Welcome aboard John. You are a breathe of fresh air and I look forward to your analysis of Auburn Football.