StatTiger

Arkansas State Game Report Card

39 posts in this topic

All three phases of the football team had a passing grade, which resulted in a dominating victory tonight. Auburn threw the ball 32 percent of the time on 1st down during the first half, which allowed Auburn to find a rhythm early on. By halftime, the Auburn Tigers had 452-yards, 38 points, and 15 first downs. The balance on offense allowed the Tigers to generate 11 impact plays during the first half, the same number Arkansas State allowed during their entire game against Toledo. Sean White had a great game with 244-yards passing and 60-yards rushing during three-quarters of work. He did a great a job coming off his primary target for completions to secondary receivers. Though he missed out on two other touchdown passes, the offense looked consistent and explosive with White in command. Nine different Auburn players produced an impact play on offense, which was a good sign for a young offense finding its identity.

For the second week in a row, Auburn struggled to apply pressure on the opposing quarterback without blitzing. The defense did finish with four sacks and five additional pressures but gave up too many big plays. Of the 326-yards surrendered against the Red Wolves, 56 percent came on four pass plays. Minus the four big pass plays allowed, Auburn gave up 2.4 yards per play during the remaining 60 snaps defended. Johnathan Ford led the defense with ten stops on the night, and Auburn had eight tackles for loss compared to the five surrendered on offense. The good news was Auburn emptied their bench during the fourth period to build much-needed depth. Less substitution on offense allowed Auburn to find their groove with 11 of 12 possessions netting at least 44-yards gained. Auburn's first-year receivers accounted for seven receptions for 140-yards tonight.

Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway recorded their first 100-yard rushing games today, which allowed K.J. to limit his touches for another day. The two running backs combined for 33 carries and 276-yards rushing on the night (8.4 YPC). Auburn's 706-yards on offense was the most since Auburn gained 712-yards against Western Carolina during the 2013 season. Auburn's 462-yards rushing was the most rushing yardage since the 2013 season and the 22nd time a Gus Malzahn run-offense has cracked the 300-yard mark at Auburn. Pat Dye's offense reached 300-yards rushing 20 times from 1981-1992, and Tommy Tuberville's offense did it six times from 1999-2008. Arkansas State was an inferior opponent, but Auburn's 51-14 victory was the most convincing Auburn win since the 2014 season. With so many teams in the SEC struggling against inferior opponents early this season, Auburn did not fall into that trap. It was a good building block moving forward.  

War Eagle!

======================

Game #2 Statistical Evaluation (Arkansas State Game)

Offensive Report Card
01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [9.40] pass
02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs:  [73.3%] pass
03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush:  [7.45] pass
04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions:  [75.0%] pass
05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%:  [0.0%] pass
06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [10.6 yds] pass
07) Score at least 75% inside red zone:  [83.3%] pass
08) TD red zone above 60%:  [50.0%] fail
09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession:  [58.8 yds] pass
10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [74.1%] pass
11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6:  [6.0] pass
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps:  [14.2] pass
13) At least 8 impact plays:  [15] pass
14) At least 2 big plays:  [4] pass
15) Pass rating of at least 126.3:  [206.7] pass

Score: 14 of 15 (93.%) PASS


Defensive Report Card:
01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [3.33] pass
02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs:  [31.2%] pass
03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less:  [1.88] pass
04) Score  1/3 of possessions or below:  [18.2%] pass
05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%:  [27.3%] fail
06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [8.96 yds] fail
07) Score below 75% inside red zone:  [66.7%] pass
08) TD red zone below 60%:  [66.7%] fail
09) Avg under 30-yards per possession:  [29.6 yds] pass
10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [18.7%] pass
11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6:  [2:0] fail
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps:  [32.0] pass
13) Less than 8 impact plays:  [6] pass
14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: [4] fail
15) Pass rating below 125.0:  [140.8] fail

Score: 9 of 15 (60.0%) PASS


Special Teams Report Card:
1) Punt Average (Above 41.3):  [0.0] N/A
2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [0.0] pass
3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [8.0] fail
4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [25.0] fail
5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [13.0] fail
6) PAT’s (100%): [6 of 6] pass
7) FG Pct (75% or above): [100.0%] pass


Score: 3 of 6 (50.0%) PASS

* 50% is a passing score.

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What a great game by the offense. Guys are still gelling, we can get much better. Talk about positive! 

I knew Stat was going to enjoy this one

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Stat, I believe you could revisit a couple of items on your Special Teams Scorecard:  (1) if there are no punts, then why count the 'punt return defense' category at all?  (2) Why is the 'kick-return defense' a Fail when Daniel Carlson boots all his kick offs beyond the end zone preventing any kick returns from ever happening?  The placement of the ball at the 25-yd line is just a rule and doesn't mean that the receiving team actually gained 25 yds on the kicking team.  The standard you chose:  below 21.2 ypr seems to be an arbitrarily chosen number.  I could see gigging him for kicking off out of bounds and incurring a penalty, but that didn't happen in this game.  Carlson's kicking performance was ideal.  Even the no punts (& no punt returns) were ideal.  

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Great game and effort, but given our line I'm surprised with this:

"For the second week in a row, Auburn struggled to apply pressure on the opposing quarterback without blitzing."

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My only complaint was I think we should have saved that fake fg for an SEC opponent.

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21 minutes ago, alexava said:

My only complaint was I think we should have saved that fake fg for an SEC opponent.

Yep

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3 hours ago, alexava said:

My only complaint was I think we should have saved that fake fg for an SEC opponent.

Perhaps the main thing was to discourage people from loading up to block our FGs by putting that in their minds.

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@StatTiger, you may have stated this before but could you remind me what is considered an "impact" play and what is a "big" play?

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5 hours ago, AUloggerhead said:

Stat, I believe you could revisit a couple of items on your Special Teams Scorecard:  (1) if there are no punts, then why count the 'punt return defense' category at all?  (2) Why is the 'kick-return defense' a Fail when Daniel Carlson boots all his kick offs beyond the end zone preventing any kick returns from ever happening?  The placement of the ball at the 25-yd line is just a rule and doesn't mean that the receiving team actually gained 25 yds on the kicking team.  The standard you chose:  below 21.2 ypr seems to be an arbitrarily chosen number.  I could see gigging him for kicking off out of bounds and incurring a penalty, but that didn't happen in this game.  Carlson's kicking performance was ideal.  Even the no punts (& no punt returns) were ideal.  

Arkansas State did have 1 return and it was for 25-yds. Yes it is great having a high number of touchbacks but it can be fatal flaw. It caught up with AU in the 2013-14 NC game. Because the players on KRC rarely have to defend a kickoff, they develop bad habits or make the assumption it will be a touchback everytime. This is why I treat the actual returns separately.

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5 hours ago, AUloggerhead said:

Stat, I believe you could revisit a couple of items on your Special Teams Scorecard:  (1) if there are no punts, then why count the 'punt return defense' category at all?  (2) Why is the 'kick-return defense' a Fail when Daniel Carlson boots all his kick offs beyond the end zone preventing any kick returns from ever happening?  The placement of the ball at the 25-yd line is just a rule and doesn't mean that the receiving team actually gained 25 yds on the kicking team.  The standard you chose:  below 21.2 ypr seems to be an arbitrarily chosen number.  I could see gigging him for kicking off out of bounds and incurring a penalty, but that didn't happen in this game.  Carlson's kicking performance was ideal.  Even the no punts (& no punt returns) were ideal.  

the 21.2 made sense when the ball came out to the twenty back in the old days....seems that the point of automatic placement would be the standard now? Just wondering.

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3 minutes ago, AU64 said:

the 21.2 made sense when the ball came out to the twenty back in the old days....seems that the point of automatic placement would be the standard now? Just wondering.

The statistical goal is based on averages for KR's.

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Thanks Stat for your usual in-depth insight.  One category you might think about adding is Fourth Down Offense.  I was really disappointed we couldn't get 1 yard against ASU. 

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I was happy with what I saw last night.  The team (especially the O) needed it.

 

wde

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5 hours ago, alexava said:

My only complaint was I think we should have saved that fake fg for an SEC opponent.

From my vantage point, there's no saving plays.  You scout the team you're about to play and scheme to beat them in every phase, according to their tendencies and weaknesses. It also makes future teams prepare and consider fakes, which takes time from their preparation. It also give you a chance to see if your team can perform the fake properly.  I was excited to see the swinging gate formation on the extra point as well.  One game, one opponent at a time! 

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JF3 needs more reps. The read-option with him is a serious threat that needs to be utilized. We've yet to use in the HUNH. I expect to see more packages with him in it against Texas A&M. 

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32 minutes ago, logan adams said:

JF3 needs more reps. The read-option with him is a serious threat that needs to be utilized. We've yet to use in the HUNH. I expect to see more packages with him in it against Texas A&M. 

I like how Malzahn has been treating it as of late. Sean White is the starting QB and JFIII is No.2. This offense needs to be built around Sean White with situational play for JFIII. IMO, we will see less of JF3 against TAMU unless Malzahn has something set up for inside the RZ or short yardage situations. We are already allowing Kerryon to take snaps in the WC so the less substitution the better.

 

2 cents

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Completely agree, Stat. This needs to be Sean's team. Everyone still pining over JF3 need to stop and get on board with Sean.

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Seemed like Gus really had a plan to take advantage of Sean's strengths. The 1st down passes were a welcome adjustment. The lack of QB pressure from front 4 is really hard to figure considering the players there.

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15) Pass rating of at least 126.3:  [206.7] pass
 

When is the last time an Auburn Quarterback had a 206.7 passer rating?

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7 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

@StatTiger, you may have stated this before but could you remind me what is considered an "impact" play and what is a "big" play?

Impact is 15 or more yards

Big play is 30-yards or more.

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What do you consider less than 30 but greater than 15...but it's only less than 30 because they score. For example, Hastings TD. 

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1 minute ago, Ouchyfish said:

If we take a knee in the red zone at the end does that count against red zone %?

Officially it does.

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