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StatTiger

Texas A&M Game Report Card

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It was another disappointing offensive game plan by Gus Malzahn, with no attempt to attack the Aggies defense. It wasn't until the 64th offensive snap of the contest, Auburn registered a play over 20-yards. Thirteen of Sean White's pass attempts during the first half were within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Of Auburn's 40 snaps on first down, 60% resulted in 3-yards or less. Until Jonathan Franklin took over for Sean White, Auburn netted 62-yards on 28 first down snaps. What we witnessed tonight was the same game plan we saw against Texas A&M last year, minus the defensive production. There was a heavy reliance on screen passes and the hopes the running game could win the game. Nearly 56 percent of Auburn's rushing totals came after Auburn was down 22-10. Auburn did throw the ball nearly 33 percent of the time on first down but almost exclusively short. Auburn completed eight first down passes for only 41-yards or 3.2 yards per attempt.

The defense managed to keep Auburn in the ball game until the final quarter but struggled for the third week in a row, establishing a pass-rush without blitzing. The Tigers registered only four tackles for loss and failed to force a turnover. Auburn has won the "tackle for loss" battle only four times during their last 21 games. For the first time this season, tackling was poor, and Auburn has now allowed eight plays of 30-yards or more through 3 games, after allowing only 15 through 13 games last season. I do believe the defense has the potential to be better than 2015, but the defensive front appears to have been over stated regarding their potential. There were opportunities to make plays in the backfield, but Auburn's pass-rush lost containment too many times against the Aggies. The good news is that the players continued to battle down to the very end, which means they will strive to be successful.

It appears we could see another change at quarterback next week with Jonathan Franklin III, showing some life in the Auburn offense. If this happens, it is a sure sign Gus Malzahn is more likely to make personnel changes than scheme or play-calling changes. This is not a good sign for what should be expected at this level of play and with the talent level currently available to the offensive coaches. JFIII could be the right move to bring some form of rudimentary development and identity for a struggling Auburn offense. It could be enough to win six regular season games but certainly not sufficient for what is expected. How long the players continue to battle under the current circumstances remains to be seen. As long as they are committed to compete, there is talent to do some special things this year. For this to happen, it will be up to the coaches to place them in a situation to compete and win. The players deserve better than what we have witnessed through three games, especially on the offensive side of the football. After going 12-2 his first season, Gus Malzahn is now 16-13. The fan base is restless, to say the least, and the same mistakes are continuing to add up, which means changes will occur one way or another.

 

Game #3 Statistical Evaluation (Texas A&M Game)

Offensive Report Card
01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [3.88] fail
02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs:  [35.3%] fail
03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush:  [4.37] fail
04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions:  [20.0%] fail
05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%:  [26.7%] pass
06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [4.66 yds] fail
07) Score at least 75% inside red zone:  [75.0%] pass
08) TD red zone above 60%:  [50.0%] fail
09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession:  [26.6 yds] fail
10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [30.3%] fail
11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6:  [2.0] pass
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps:  [44.5] fail
13) At least 8 impact plays:  [7] fail
14) At least 2 big plays:  [1] fail
15) Pass rating of at least 126.3:  [116.3] fail


Score: 3 of 15 (20.0%) FAIL

  
Defensive Report Card:
01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [6.58] fail
02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs:  [13.3%] pass
03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less:  [6.24] fail
04) Score  1/3 of possessions or below:  [46.7%] fail
05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%:  [40.0%] pass
06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [6.17 yds] pass
07) Score below 75% inside red zone:  [100.0%] fail
08) TD red zone below 60%:  [20.0%] pass
09) Avg under 30-yards per possession:  [31.9 yds] fail
10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [63.6%] fail
11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6:  [2:0] fail
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps:  [38.5] pass
13) Less than 8 impact plays:  [10] fail
14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: [3] fail
15) Pass rating below 125.0:  [110.1] pass

Score: 6 of 15 (40.0%) FAIL

 

Special Teams Report Card:
1) Punt Average (Above 41.3):  [37.2] fail
2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [0.0] pass
3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [6.0] fail
4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [0.0] pass
5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [24.0] pass
6) PAT’s (100%): [2 of 2] pass
7) FG Pct (75% or above): [100.0%] pass


Score: 5 of 7 (50.0%) PASS

 

* 50% is a passing score.

 

War Eagle!

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I love your work stat and am not saying to stop, but it breaks my heart to see a good d grade out like this when they are hung out to dry again and again by gus' O. It just doesn't seem fair. 

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Seriously, a sad state of affairs.....

There is only one conclusion I can make, using the play calling and the recent record as criteria.

Gus and Rhett are coaching in a setting, they do not have the capability, experience or adaptability, to manage.

 

ETA: I'm also very certain they have neither, the willingness or knowledge to change this.

 

 

Edited by telling tiger
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My take: I see an offense that has some ability but not near the talent that everyone thinks we have. Our QB (any of them) would not start for any other team in the SEC, except vandy.  Oline is average.  Receivers are an unknown because our staff does not know how to use receivers. 

Defense has some ability.   They can keep auburn in games but will never win the game.   It falls on player development.   This staff cannot develop players.   Carl Lawson is a legit player but has regressed in his time at auburn

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Smh at this whole train wreck. D played good enough to win, sure the stats may get a bit skewed by the end because of the lack of O and the fact we basically ran out of gas. I put the blame squarely on Gus and Rhett and their so called game plan. 

On a bright note, we've got a field goal kicker. 

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"If this happens, it is a sure sign Gus Malzahn is more likely to make personnel changes than scheme or play-calling changes. This is not a good sign for what should be expected at this level of play and with the talent level currently available to the offensive coaches."

This is why I have been so frustrated with Gus' play-calling. He won't adjust to his players strengths and expects them to change what they were recruited for. Why would you recruit a pro-style QB like SW and try to make him something else? Why didn't Gus do something about Garrett instead of leaving a tackle hanging out on an island where he was obviously over-matched. Why not put a tight-end on him and give him something else to worry about? Did we even use a tight-end in this game (other than running plays)?

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17 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

My take: I see an offense that has some ability but not near the talent that everyone thinks we have. Our QB (any of them) would not start for any other team in the SEC, except vandy.  Oline is average.  Receivers are an unknown because our staff does not know how to use receivers. 

Defense has some ability.   They can keep auburn in games but will never win the game.   It falls on player development.   This staff cannot develop players.   Carl Lawson is a legit player but has regressed in his time at auburn

All of this adds up to one thing......COACHING CHANGE!  I hate to see us go through that yet again, Gus and Rhett are in over their heads, and are lost at every turn. We never make adjustments, we just keep doing the same thing, hoping the other team blows an assignment that allows us to move the ball.  You cannot coach like that in the SEC.  Every team is loaded with talent, and most of that talent is developed (except in our case, apparently) into a solid football team.  Teams will make a mistake or two, but the coaches identify the mistake, make adjustments, and fix the problem.  Not Gus!  Auburn deserves better than what we are getting.  At this point, we're probably 2-3 years from being relevant again, and that's only if we make changes now.  Until then, punchline of the SEC is where we live.  If you have any bammer or UGA friends, you might want to distance yourselves from them this season.  bammer is going to win it all again, and UGA will keep squeaking out wins and finish with 9 wins, and we'll be sitting there with our 4-5 wins, mostly non-conference.   

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Interesting as usual Stat.  I found it interesting your opinion about how the DL is not performing up to potential.  That is getting overshadowed by the mess that is our offense and the fact that overall, the D is beacon of shining light compared to Gus' play calling and personnel use on O.

 

wde

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3 minutes ago, AUIH1 said:

Interesting as usual Stat.  I found it interesting your opinion about how the DL is not performing up to potential.  That is getting overshadowed by the mess that is our offense and the fact that overall, the D is beacon of shining light compared to Gus' play calling and personnel use on O.

 

wde

The D is fine. The pass rush is non existent though. And we have too much talent for that.

Edited by aujeff11
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Just now, aujeff11 said:

The D is fine. The pass rush is non existent though. And we have to much talent for that.

I agree.

 

wde

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It may be time to take a look at Coach Russell and our off season and in season conditioning. It appears to me that both O & D Lines are weak and slow.  The OLine footwork is not good. The DLine can't get off of or beat the blocks. Then they seem to have a hard time wrapping up when they are in position to make a tackle. 

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10 minutes ago, AUIH1 said:

I agree.

 

wde

Thirds that.

It's laughable and makes you want yo cry at the same time.

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Offense is such a mess I don't see how they turn it around at this point.  When JF3 is in there it does open up some inside running lanes because the defense is so concerned with him getting outside on them.  But his passing accuracy is so terrible defenses are just going to load the box on him.  Our tackles are not capable of pass blocking an SEC caliber DE, especially one like Garrett.  This means Sean is not going to be effective even though he is accurate down the field because he is not going to have the time to get it down the field.  So we are dead in the water on offense again this year.  Even though the defense is better they are going to get beat up and worn down from staying on the field due to the lack of offense.  It's a mess and it's sad because there are some great looking athletes on this team and they deserve better.  

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2 minutes ago, around4ever said:

It may be time to take a look at Coach Russell and our off season and in season conditioning. It appears to me that both O & D Lines are weak and slow.  The OLine footwork is not good. The DLine can't get off of or beat the blocks. Then they seem to have a hard time wrapping up when they are in position to make a tackle. 

Once we get to this point in a HC's tenure where we are questioning/pointing fingers at the S&C staff (rightly or wrongly) is a pretty strong indicator, IMO, that the HC's tenure should probably come to an end sooner rather than later.

wde

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It's just sad that so many players and fans have to be embarrassed year in and year out because of 2 selfish coaches. I don't understand how auburn recruits period. With any other head coach we would be 3-0 right now easily ranked in the top 15 if not top 10. 

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24 minutes ago, AuburnGrad97 said:

All of this adds up to one thing......COACHING CHANGE!  I hate to see us go through that yet again, Gus and Rhett are in over their heads, and are lost at every turn. We never make adjustments, we just keep doing the same thing, hoping the other team blows an assignment that allows us to move the ball.  You cannot coach like that in the SEC.  Every team is loaded with talent, and most of that talent is developed (except in our case, apparently) into a solid football team.  Teams will make a mistake or two, but the coaches identify the mistake, make adjustments, and fix the problem.  Not Gus!  Auburn deserves better than what we are getting.  At this point, we're probably 2-3 years from being relevant again, and that's only if we make changes now.  Until then, punchline of the SEC is where we live.  If you have any bammer or UGA friends, you might want to distance yourselves from them this season.  bammer is going to win it all again, and UGA will keep squeaking out wins and finish with 9 wins, and we'll be sitting there with our 4-5 wins, mostly non-conference.   

I am not saying that the right coach will be available at the end of the season, but we have seen numerous coaches come into Auburn and have success right away.  It seems like anyone can win at Auburn (see Tater Tot and Chiz) but sustaining it is the problem.  It is all just talk for now as there is no sense in turfing Gus out before the season plays out but barring some miraculous turnaround he should be gone at the end of the year.  He is too well paid and other schools in our conference are firing guys averaging 9-10 wins a game.  Three years of 7-8 wins in a row should be reason enough.  Just too many resources at Auburn for us not to be good at football. I would feel a little better if he would at least go old school in the pressers and say this is on me not the players and I will fix it but that does not seem to be in his DNA. 

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2 minutes ago, AUIH1 said:

Once we get to this point in a HC's tenure where we are questioning/pointing fingers at the S&C staff (rightly or wrongly) is a pretty strong indicator, IMO, that the HC's tenure should probably come to an end sooner rather than later.

wde

While I don't disagree with the timing of questioning the S&C program, as compared to us, TAMU was jacked..............not the first time that observation has been made by folks we consistently watch games with. Hell, the QB looked like a damn linebacker.........I readily admit, I look at the whole program right now and can only shake my head.

Not trying to discount the few bright spots, like improved D.

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1 hour ago, aubaseball said:

My take: I see an offense that has some ability but not near the talent that everyone thinks we have. Our QB (any of them) would not start for any other team in the SEC, except vandy.  Oline is average.  Receivers are an unknown because our staff does not know how to use receivers. 

Defense has some ability.   They can keep auburn in games but will never win the game.   It falls on player development.   This staff cannot develop players.   Carl Lawson is a legit player but has regressed in his time at auburn

I agree with most of this. You are right about our talent, especially QB. Our RB are serviceable but not game breakers and who knows about recv.  Agree with the defense assessment except CL has been hurt so much it is hard to get better. He got manhandled last night.

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50 minutes ago, NoALtiger said:

Smh at this whole train wreck. D played good enough to win, sure the stats may get a bit skewed by the end because of the lack of O and the fact we basically ran out of gas. I put the blame squarely on Gus and Rhett and their so called game plan. 

On a bright note, we've got a field goal kicker. 

They gained 250 yes in the first half last night so it wasn't skewed IMO. If Tamu had finished drives last night they would have scored 40. Game was not that close. D did not play good enough to win. Again my opinion.

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18 minutes ago, aubinvnam said:

I am not saying that the right coach will be available at the end of the season, but we have seen numerous coaches come into Auburn and have success right away.  It seems like anyone can win at Auburn (see Tater Tot and Chiz) but sustaining it is the problem.  It is all just talk for now as there is no sense in turfing Gus out before the season plays out but barring some miraculous turnaround he should be gone at the end of the year.  He is too well paid and other schools in our conference are firing guys averaging 9-10 wins a game.  Three years of 7-8 wins in a row should be reason enough.  Just too many resources at Auburn for us not to be good at football. I would feel a little better if he would at least go old school in the pressers and say this is on me not the players and I will fix it but that does not seem to be in his DNA. 

It's a culture problem.  

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57 minutes ago, FormerlySec38Row34 said:

"If this happens, it is a sure sign Gus Malzahn is more likely to make personnel changes than scheme or play-calling changes. This is not a good sign for what should be expected at this level of play and with the talent level currently available to the offensive coaches."

This is why I have been so frustrated with Gus' play-calling. He won't adjust to his players strengths and expects them to change what they were recruited for. Why would you recruit a pro-style QB like SW and try to make him something else? Why didn't Gus do something about Garrett instead of leaving a tackle hanging out on an island where he was obviously over-matched. Why not put a tight-end on him and give him something else to worry about? Did we even use a tight-end in this game (other than running plays)?

The question isn't why would he recruit a QB like SW and turn him into something else? The question is why would he recruit SW? I don't think there is a team in a power five conference that could win with SW at QB. Btw, SW is a dual threat QB, not a pro-style QB and his strength requires a stout offensive line that can open up holes which Auburn doesn't have. SW will not beat SEC teams with his arm.

Edited by murpjf88

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58 minutes ago, FormerlySec38Row34 said:

"If this happens, it is a sure sign Gus Malzahn is more likely to make personnel changes than scheme or play-calling changes. This is not a good sign for what should be expected at this level of play and with the talent level currently available to the offensive coaches."

This is why I have been so frustrated with Gus' play-calling. He won't adjust to his players strengths and expects them to change what they were recruited for. Why would you recruit a pro-style QB like SW and try to make him something else? Why didn't Gus do something about Garrett instead of leaving a tackle hanging out on an island where he was obviously over-matched. Why not put a tight-end on him and give him something else to worry about? Did we even use a tight-end in this game (other than running plays)?

I wonder if they don't even watch game film or can they not remember Garrett from last season?How they could expect Golson to block him alone is very poor coaching, at least put a tight end or back to help on 3rd and long.

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