Upon Further Review - LSU

[StatTiger 3,188]

Upon Further Review - LSU game

 

• Through 4 games, the Auburn defense has allowed only one third-down conversion during the second quarter from 12 attempts.

 

• Auburn has surrendered 12 plays of 30-yards or more on defense through 4 games. The Tigers gave up only 15 such plays during the entire 2015 season.

 

• Speaking of big plays allowed, 36 percent of the yardage surrendered this season has occurred during only 4 percent of the plays defended. Auburn is currently allowing 5.52 yards per play. Take away the 12 big plays and the defense has allowed only 3.69 plays during the remaining 96 percent of the snaps defended.

 

• The Auburn offense has produced only 8 plays of 30-yards or more. Last season, the Auburn offense had only 4 such plays through 4 games.

 

• Last year through 4 games, the Auburn defense allowed 46 percent of the plays defended to gain at least 5-yards. This season it has dropped down to 38 percent through four games.

 

• 61 percent of Auburn's tackles for loss on defense has occurred during the first-half of their four games.

 

• Through 4 games, 46 percent of the snaps defended by the Auburn defense has resulted in 2-yards or less. Last season through 4 games it was 42 percent.

 

• 82.7 percent of Auburn's first down snaps against LSU were run plays.

 

• Through 4 games, 51.9 percent of Auburn's first down snaps have netted 3-yards or less. This is a continued issue arising from the 2015 season. Last year through the first 4 games, 47.1 percent of Auburn's first down plays netted 3-yards or less.

 

• Auburn allowed 7 tackles for loss on first down against Texas A&M. The Auburn offense allowed only 1 tackle for loss on first down against LSU.

 

• Through 4 games, 84.2 percent of Auburn's total yardage has been produced by freshman and sophomores. This is likely the primary reason why we are witnessing a slow progression on the offensive of the football.

 

• There has been progression on offense this season. Auburn averaged 3.7 yards per play against Clemson, 4.5 yards against Texas A&M and 5.2 yards against LSU. Auburn clearly needs to be more polished but they are improving.

 

• Sean White is currently No. 4 among the 12 SEC quarterbacks who have attempted at least 60 passes, when it comes to producing pass-plays of 15-yards or more.

 

• Last season through 4 games, Auburn's offense had produced only 19 impact plays or plays of 15-yards or more. This season the offense has produced 34 such plays. The top-3 impact players as of today are Tony Stevens (8), Kerryon Johnson (5) and Kamryn Pettway (5).

 

• During the last 25 years of Auburn football, 14.7 percent of Auburn's offensive possessions have began on the opponent's side of the field. This season it has dropped to only 4.0%, the lowest percentage during the past 25 seasons.

 

• The top-3 most targeted receivers through 4 games are Tony Stevens (23.3%), Marcus Davis (17.8%) and Ryan Davis (16.4%).

 

• Last season Sean White was the 7th most efficient passer on 3rd down in the SEC. This season he has moved up to No. 4 in the SEC with a rating of 145.3 on 3rd down. Last season he possessed a rating of 125.4.

 

• Sean White has attempted more passes on 3rd down than any other QB in the SEC and the second fewest pass attempts on 1st down than any starting QB in the SEC. This must change for White to reach his full potential.

 

• 68.0% of Sean White's pass attempts have been targeted within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. This is way too high when you consider he is completing 55% of his passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage compared to his 43% last season. Cam Newton completed 53% of his passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage and 44% of his passes beyond 20-yards. Sean White has completed 50% of his passes beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage.

 

• Based on the statistical report cards I compile each week, here is the order of strength through 4 games. Special Teams (69.2%), Defense (60.0%) and Offense (41.7%).

 

• Auburn was horrible in short-yardage situations against LSU. The Tigers went 2 of 6 in situations of 2-yards or less needed to convert. For the season, Auburn has converted only 60.0%, way off from previous averages. (Only 1 team finished below 72% during the past seven seasons)

 

• Over the past 35 seasons, Auburn has forced a turnover every 31 snaps. Auburn's current ratio for a forced-turnover is 1 every 93 snaps. If this ratio continues, it will easily become the worst turnover ratio by an Auburn defense since 1981.

 

• After surrendering 27 tackles for loss combined to Clemson and Texas A&M, Auburn was tackled for loss only 4 times against LSU. Of Auburn's 36 tackles for loss surrendered, 17 have come on pass plays.

 

• During Auburn's last 33 games, the opponent has produced a better yards per play average on first down, 17 times.

 

• During Auburn's last 10 conference games, the Tigers have run the ball 75.4% of the time on first down, averaging 3.96 yards per rush.

 

• Prior to the last 8 games, the Auburn defense had gone 17 consecutive games without holding their opponent to "3 & out" on 33 percent of the possessions defended. During the last 8 games, the Auburn defense has reached their goal, 5 times.

 

• From 1993-2016, Auburn has scored inside the red zone, 84.6% of the time with a TD percentage of 61.2%. Over the past two seasons, Auburn has scored 86.5% of the time but their TD percentage has dropped to 52.7%.

 

War Eagle!

[tiger88 934]

Great stuff stat! 

 

  Good gracious I would love to see our coaches grow a pair and open the offense up just a little more. Just 20-30% more passing would do it imo. It would open up the run game. 

  Last in passing attempts on 1st down and first in passing attempts on third down in the conference. This is the kind of stuff that makes people scratch their heads and wonder what it will take our "offensive braintrust" to pull their heads out of the hinies and catch a clue.

 If I see us run two dives to end up in 3rd and long again my head might just pop, lol.

[tiger88 934]

Take out the arky state game and what is our red zone TD percentage? I don't think I want to know. 

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

5 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Upon Further Review - LSU game

 

• 82.7 percent of Auburn's first down snaps against LSU were run plays.

    

• Through 4 games, 84.2 percent of Auburn's total yardage has been produced by freshman and sophomores. This is likely the primary reason why we are witnessing a slow progression on the offensive of the football.

 

• Sean White is currently No. 4 among the 12 SEC quarterbacks who have attempted at least 60 passes, when it comes to producing pass-plays of 15-yards or more.

 

• Last season through 4 games, Auburn's offense had produced only 19 impact plays or plays of 15-yards or more. This season the offense has produced 34 such plays. The top-3 impact players as of today are Tony Stevens (8), Kerryon Johnson (5) and Kamryn Pettway (5).

    

• Last season Sean White was the 7th most efficient passer on 3rd down in the SEC. This season he has moved up to No. 4 in the SEC with a rating of 145.3 on 3rd down. Last season he possessed a rating of 125.4.

 

• Sean White has attempted more passes on 3rd down than any other QB in the SEC and the second fewest pass attempts on 1st down than any starting QB in the SEC. This must change for White to reach his full potential.

 

• 68.0% of Sean White's pass attempts have been targeted within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. This is way too high when you consider he is completing 55% of his passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage compared to his 43% last season. Cam Newton completed 53% of his passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage and 44% of his passes beyond 20-yards. Sean White has completed 50% of his passes beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage.

  
War Eagle!

 

Snipped a bunch but have some questions about what's left.

1. What the heck do you think has to happen for our coaches to call for a pass at least a little more often on first down? Running 80+ percent of the time on 1st down is wishbone team era stuff. 60/40 or even 70/30 seems like it might help the first down runs at least a little as the opposing D would not be able to just sell out to stop the run and be right 80+ percent of the time.

2. That slow progression with offensive contributions from frosh and sophomores? Just interested in your opinion about how likely that slow trickle might turn into a flood as these players get more experience and grow up this season.

3. Man, call me lazy, but who are the three QB's ahead of Sean when it comes to producing pass plays of 15 yards or more? If I had to guess, I'd venture Allen at Arky, Knight at aTm, Hurts at bammer and of course Kelly at Ole Miss. 

4. The impact play stat seems to be headed in the right direction. Portends better days ahead ya think?

5. White's pass rating on 3rd down seems fairly amazing to me considering how many of those passes have been on third and looooonnnnggggg!  Do you know what the average distance for a first down has been on those pass attempts and how that compares to the 3rd down distance faced by the three QB's ahead of him?

6. You kidding, Stat? I'm assured that Sean White is not capable of throwing the ball more than five yards past the LOS on AU forums across net.   (Yeah, that was an unserious question.)

[tiger88 934]

I don't know gus or rhett, but this seems to fit the "unbelievably stubborn" narrative you often hear from gus. To admit he needs to change his plan might take away from his geniousness, perhaps? He will just keep doing it until those players execute it properly. I suppose he knows that all plays work great if executed as they look on paper. 

[au701948 996]

The playbook must be opened a great deal more in the next 2 weeks to gain some comfort level. Other teams, one will especially be un-named, recruit high-profile athletes and they are allowed to contribute immediately. Will CGM's stepping away from play calling become an opportunity for our younger receivers and White to start playing some real football?

Edited September 25, 2016 by au701948

[StatTiger 3,188]

18 minutes ago, CleCoTiger said:

 

Snipped a bunch but have some questions about what's left.

1. What the heck do you think has to happen for our coaches to call for a pass at least a little more often on first down? Running 80+ percent of the time on 1st down is wishbone team era stuff. 60/40 or even 70/30 seems like it might help the first down runs at least a little as the opposing D would not be able to just sell out to stop the run and be right 80+ percent of the time.

2. That slow progression with offensive contributions from frosh and sophomores? Just interested in your opinion about how likely that slow trickle might turn into a flood as these players get more experience and grow up this season.

3. Man, call me lazy, but who are the three QB's ahead of Sean when it comes to producing pass plays of 15 yards or more? If I had to guess, I'd venture Allen at Arky, Knight at aTm, Hurts at bammer and of course Kelly at Ole Miss. 

4. The impact play stat seems to be headed in the right direction. Portends better days ahead ya think?

5. White's pass rating on 3rd down seems fairly amazing to me considering how many of those passes have been on third and looooonnnnggggg!  Do you know what the average distance for a first down has been on those pass attempts and how that compares to the 3rd down distance faced by the three QB's ahead of him?

6. You kidding, Stat? I'm assured that Sean White is not capable of throwing the ball more than five yards past the LOS on AU forums across net.   (Yeah, that was an unserious question.)

1) I would guess their intent would be that they want to take full advantage of running on 1st down because the offense is built around the running game. Against Arkansas State, Auburn did attempt a pass in nearly 33% of the 1st down snaps during the first half. Against Texas A&M, AU attempted a pass play over 40% of the time on 1st down. Against LSU, I believe they reverted back because they expected a low-scoring game.

2) I think the youth movement is a good thing for the near future. The problem is Auburn must thrown more often to take advantage of the talent at the WR position.

3) Kelly, Allen and Lock.

4) I believe the potential is there. Once again, AU must take advantage of throwing to a talented group of WR's (vertically).

5) Sean White has attempted the most pass attempts in the SEC facing 3rd & 10 or longer and has the highest completion pct.

6) I believe White has a strong enough arm and mechanics to make every throw in the playbook. I would like to see fewer slow-developing play-action passes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[weagl1 1,781]

I don't get why we run the same play on virtually every first down and defenses have picked up on it.  If they would let Sean throw it on first down it would open up the offense and stop that camping out on the run up the middle.  

[IronMan70 3,277]

We have a lot of offensive firepower sitting on the bench. We need to get these big, fast, young, WRs more involved in the game. Here I'm thinking of Kyle Davis, Nate Craig- Myers, Darius Slayton and Eli Stove.

[Randman5000 4,224]

8 minutes ago, IronMan70 said:

We have a lot of offensive firepower sitting on the bench. We need to get these big, fast, young, WRs more involved in the game. Here I'm thinking of Kyle Davis, Nate Craig- Myers, Darius Slayton and Eli Stove.

Ryan Davis ran hard too. I could see him taking Marcus Davis pt.

Edited September 25, 2016 by Randman5000

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks for the analysis...kinda shakes some of the commonly held beliefs about our QB.

[BeatBama1972 11]

5 hours ago, IronMan70 said:

We have a lot of offensive firepower sitting on the bench. We need to get these big, fast, young, WRs more involved in the game. Here I'm thinking of Kyle Davis, Nate Craig- Myers, Darius Slayton and Eli Stove.

100% agree 

[augrad68 165]

19 hours ago, tiger88 said:

I don't know gus or rhett, but this seems to fit the "unbelievably stubborn" narrative you often hear from gus. To admit he needs to change his plan might take away from his geniousness, perhaps? He will just keep doing it until those players execute it properly. I suppose he knows that all plays work great if executed as they look on paper. 

I guess that justifies the rumor of putting down cardboard on the indoor practice field....... they always look good on paper!

[boisnumber1 2,818]

Offensively, I knew this was the case, but to see it written down in black & white just makes me smh and say wth? We've always heard about Gus and "stubborn", but at some point it's not stubbornness anymore, it's just outright stupidity. He's wanting to succeed by using a recipe for failure. Try it once and it doesn't work, fine. Try it twice and it doesn't work, you're stupid for not learning it the first time. Try it 3, 4, 5, 6 times, you're a downright fool. I've always been a Gus supporter, but after last season and this season, I think he has crossed over into the fool category. He has no answers because he's going to continue to use the same old things that never work. Since protesting is the "in thing" maybe we as fans should all hold hands outside the Athletic Dept and chant "Play Action on First Down! Play Action on First Down!". Desperate times call for desperate measures. 

Edited September 26, 2016 by boisnumber1

[lutzcammed 469]

When broken down as such. I believe my simple minded self could devise a pretty good defensive game plan against us.

[kkolumbo 8]

one of the most important things to note on these stats is that the level of competition through the first 4 games this year is way better than last year.

[augolf1716 21,096]

13 minutes ago, kkolumbo said:

one of the most important things to note on these stats is that the level of competition through the first 4 games this year is way better than last year.

Completely agree....

[SumterAubie 3,031]

1 hour ago, kkolumbo said:

one of the most important things to note on these stats is that the level of competition through the first 4 games this year is way better than last year.

 

51 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

Completely agree....

In my opinion investing in this difficult opening month will pay dividends later on in the schedule.

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 hour ago, boisnumber1 said:

Offensively, I knew this was the case, but to see it written down in black & white just makes me smh and say wth? We've always heard about Gus and "stubborn", but at some point it's not stubbornness anymore, it's just outright stupidity. He's wanting to succeed by using a recipe for failure. Try it once and it doesn't work, fine. Try it twice and it doesn't work, you're stupid for not learning it the first time. Try it 3, 4, 5, 6 times, you're a downright fool. I've always been a Gus supporter, but after last season and this season, I think he has crossed over into the fool category. He has no answers because he's going to continue to use the same old things that never work. 

I honestly think that our O-Line issues have been the best thing that could have happened to Gus. Had the O-Line excelled, the play calling would be FAR more successful and he would have continued to think it was a quality game plan. Now he's finally learning that he can't build his game plan on the assumption that the O-Line is going to make giant holes for your running backs.

[AuburnNTexas 7,127]

I like the fact that we are seeing improvement on the O side of the ball from game to game. With continued improvement on O, a few more turnovers and scoring TD's in red zone and we have the potential to be a good team.  Now it is time to start a small win streak

La -Monroe - chance to fine tune Offense and get a little confidence and momentum 3-2 Auburn Record

Miss. State - Has not been playing well but came up Mass. - it is an away game but we should be able to beat them. 4-2 Auburn Record

Arky - Another beatable SEC West Team playing at home we should keep Momentum going. 5-2 Auburn record

Ole Miss. - Dr and Jekyl Team -  Play great then fall put it all together last week. -  Real test for D and for O  Away game.  I think we can win but this is a tossup 6-2 Auburn Record

Vandy - We should win good D no O for Vandy. 7-2 Auburn Record

Georgia - Good record but suspect team - We can win. 8-2 Auburn Record

Alabama A&M - Tune-up for the real game. 9-2 Auburn Record

Bama - Good team but not a great Bama team (beatable). -If we keep improving and win out going into Tuscaloosa we can win this game. If we are 9-2 going into this game we win. Auburn 10-2 Record

[AidiAU 1,270]

@StatTigerThank you for posting. This is the first time I decided to read your post game numbers.

I'm glad there are improvements on the offense, even if they are hardly noticeable.

Equally relieved(?)/excited about the fresh/soph players.

I never thought that playing some great opponents early on would be a positive for our team, but in a weird way it now gives me hope.

How long does it take you to put this together after a game? There is no way I could have this done by the end of the season.

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

2 hours ago, AidiAU said:

@StatTigerThank you for posting. This is the first time I decided to read your post game numbers.

 

@StatTiger is a dang AUFamily treasure. I make it a point to never miss his posts and comments. I don't necessarily always agree with him, but then again, I sometimes don't have good sense. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

I agree Sean White played well, but he had a few opportunities to make some throws that he chose not to attempt and ate the ball. One was in the redzone as he was rolling left and ended up taking a 6-7 yard sack. I think it was K.Davis that started in the slot and ran a post to the back corner of the endzone, and beat his man and was open (not wide open), and Sean seemed to look to him and just didn't pull the trigger. I am all for protecting the ball, but he needs to trust himself and let that ball go. 

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

22 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

I agree Sean White played well, but he had a few opportunities to make some throws that he chose not to attempt and ate the ball. One was in the redzone as he was rolling left and ended up taking a 6-7 yard sack. I think it was K.Davis that started in the slot and ran a post to the back corner of the endzone, and beat his man and was open (not wide open), and Sean seemed to look to him and just didn't pull the trigger. I am all for protecting the ball, but he needs to trust himself and let that ball go. 

If you're talking about the play I think you are on the roll out to the left, he never had his shoulders squared or time to get his feet set in any way to deliver that ball. I thought he should have thrown it away rather than take the sack, in his his post-game interview he said the same thing himself. But I don't know that I think he should have attempted that pass.

[au701948 996]

On 9/25/2016 at 2:52 PM, IronMan70 said:

We have a lot of offensive firepower sitting on the bench. We need to get these big, fast, young, WRs more involved in the game. Here I'm thinking of Kyle Davis, Nate Craig- Myers, Darius Slayton and Eli Stove.

Agree with Iron Man and Weagle1..does anyone believe that with Lashlee now calling plays that we will finally begin to try and play with a full playbook? I am still hoping we will, but the time is now!