StatTiger

Mississippi State Game Report Card

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It was a disappointing finish after a dominating first half, but Auburn moves to 4-2 on the season. The 24-point road victory against a SEC opponent has not been accomplished since the 2013 Tennessee game. Auburn's defense has now gone seven consecutive games without allowing 30-points, which was last accomplished between the 2007 and 2008 seasons. After outgaining MSU, 335-yards to 91-yards during the first half, the Bulldogs out-gained Auburn, 198-yards to 97-yards during the second-half. From 1981-2016, Auburn is now 95-0 in games they lead by 17 or more points at halftime. Sean White's pass-rating of 180.2 was the 6th best performance by an Auburn QB against MSU during the last 35 meetings. His interception should have been a completion, which would have made his performance the 3rd best over the past 35 seasons.

Kamryn Pettway's 169-yards on 39 carries was a solid "blue-collar" performance. He provided the inside power Auburn needed to be the most physical team in Starkville. Auburn's defense was impressive again, especially when it came to defending Auburn's two turnovers to Mississippi State. For the season, Auburn has surrendered only 6 points after nine Auburn turnovers. Auburn won the rushing battle, the tackle for loss battle and turnover battle, all keys to winning in the SEC. Through 6 games, Auburn's defense has held the opponent scoreless in nearly 42% of the 24 quarters. This is the highest percentage of scoreless quarters since 2007. After allowing 32 tackles for loss during the first three games, the Auburn offense has allowed only 11 during the last three games. Gus Malzahn's offense has now rushed for at least 200-yards during 62.3% of their conference games. Tuberville's offense did it 26.8% of the time and Pat Dye's teams did it 48.7% of the time.

The initial temptation is to focus on how Auburn finished the game, rather than looking at the entire picture. The second-half was a letdown, but Auburn's 35 point lead was the largest lead by an Auburn team in conference play since the 1990 Vanderbilt game. This was another step forward for an Auburn team that is clearly a better team by midseason than the one that stumbled through their opening night. All three phases of the team had a passing grade for the 4th time this season. This happened only three times out of 13 games during 2015. The 2013 and 2014 teams had passing grades in all 3 phases during the same game, five times each. The 2010 Auburn Tigers did it only four times out of 14 games. There are multiple areas to improve upon but this team continues to grow, and they have not reached their full potential. Now it is time for a well-deserved bye week and an opportunity for the players to charge their batteries.

War Eagle!
 

Game #6 Statistical Evaluation (Mississippi State Game)

Offensive Report Card
01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [5.42] fail
02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs:  [46.1%] pass
03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush:  [4.07] fail
04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions:  [45.4%] pass
05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%:  [27.3%] pass
06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [11.3 yds] pass
07) Score at least 75% inside red zone:  [100.0%] pass
08) TD red zone above 60%:  [80.0%] pass
09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession:  [39.3 yds] pass
10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [66.2%] pass
11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6:  [4/2] pass
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps:  [18.5] fail
13) At least 8 impact plays:  [7] fail
14) At least 2 big plays:  [2] pass
15) Pass rating of at least 126.3:  [180.2] pass


Score: 11 of 15 (73.3%) Pass
  
Defensive Report Card:
01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [3.12] pass
02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs:  [37.5%] fail
03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less:  [3.12] pass
04) Score  1/3 of possessions or below:  [15.4%] pass
05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%:  [38.5%] pass
06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [5.31 yds] pass
07) Score below 75% inside red zone:  [33.3%] pass
08) TD red zone below 60%:  [33.3%] pass
09) Avg under 30-yards per possession:  [22.2 yds] pass
10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [16.2%] pass
11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6:  [2/3] pass
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps:  [34.0] pass
13) Less than 8 impact plays:  [5] pass
14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: [1] pass
15) Pass rating below 125.0:  [109.2] pass

Score: 14 of 15 (93.3%) Pass 


Special Teams Report Card:
1) Punt Average (Above 41.3):  [36.8] 2 of 4 punts inside 20 (pass)
2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [-1.5] pass
3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [-4.0] fail
4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [0.0] pass
5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [18.5] fail
6) PAT’s (100%): [5 of 5] pass
7) FG Pct (75% or above): [100.0%] pass

Score: 5 of 7 (71.4%) Pass

* 50% is a passing score.

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I hate that we didn't go on all cylinders in the second half, but I'm still satisfied in the win. The first half of that game looked like the most complete Auburn team that I had ever seen. 

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7 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

All three phases of the team had a passing grade for the 4th time this season. This happened only three times out of 13 games during 2015. The 2013 and 2014 teams had passing grades in all 3 phases during the same game, five times each. The 2010 Auburn Tigers did it only four times out of 14 games. There are multiple areas to improve upon but this team continues to grow, and they have not reached their full potential.

They have not reached their full potential. And if the Tigers keep improving, that ought to scare the white right off the rice of opponents for the remainder of the season.  I've been telling folks for a few weeks now that this offense was just about ready to bust loose, that Lashlee+Hand may be like Malzahn+Hand was at Tulsa, i.e. the combination is greater than the sum of its parts.

The defense is an AU defense again. And it's still the Gus Bus on offense, but Lashlee and Hand are driving it.  Hang on, this is gonna be fun!

Edited by CleCoTiger

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5 minutes ago, logan adams said:

I hate that we didn't go on all cylinders in the second half, but I'm still satisfied in the win. The first half of that game looked like the most complete Auburn team that I had ever seen. 

So, I wasn't the only one grinning like an idiot while watching that half of football? :big:

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23 minutes ago, CleCoTiger said:

They have not reached their full potential. And if the Tigers keep improving, that ought to scare the white right off the rice of opponents for the remainder of the season.  I've been telling folks for a few weeks now that this offense was just about ready to bust loose, that Lashlee+Hand may be like Malzahn+Hand was at Tulsa, i.e. the combination is greater than the sum of its parts.

The defense is an AU defense again. And it's still the Gus Bus on offense, but Lashlee and Hand are driving it.  Hang on, this is gonna be fun!

Been waiting for this since Tubs left, glad to have it back.

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Yes the O play calling/scheme was bad in the 2nd half after a good 1st half.  Yes, the D played well given the stress that was put on them on them in the 2nd half, but the D was lights out the 1st half..  Very happy for the win.

 

wde

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Guys, the 2nd half is entirely on me.  I'm camping this weekend in Chattanooga where my son is in college and couldn't get satellite reception. By the 2nd half, we went to his apartment and tried to catch some of it, and clearly I jinxed things. 

 

By the way, out of state tuition, combined with the benefits of the TN Hope scholarship makes my kids attending AU close to impossible.  Hope some of my younger ones can get a scholarship...

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O-line looked very good, especially the first half and the last drive of the game.  I'm for keeping Golson at center and James at tackle.  This is working better.  D-line is looking better every week and there was a lot of rotation up front today.  It looked like Cowart and Williams played more than they have been.  Lawson and Adams should both be All-Americans.  We got some studs up front.  

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It's time to start listing in the O stats dropped balls and Int's.  

Should be some acknowledgment when it is not the QB's fault for an incompletion/ INT.

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6 hours ago, GoAU said:

Guys, the 2nd half is entirely on me.  I'm camping this weekend in Chattanooga where my son is in college and couldn't get satellite reception. By the 2nd half, we went to his apartment and tried to catch some of it, and clearly I jinxed things. 

 

By the way, out of state tuition, combined with the benefits of the TN Hope scholarship makes my kids attending AU close to impossible.  Hope some of my younger ones can get a scholarship...

out of state anywhere is usually pretty terrible 

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12 hours ago, AUGoo said:

It's time to start listing in the O stats dropped balls and Int's.  

Should be some acknowledgment when it is not the QB's fault for an incompletion/ INT.

I think drops are worthwhile to keep up with.  Miss St had a lot of drops that helped us out a bit in the first half.

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Stat Tiger

It appears to me that we ALWAYS run the dive play over the guard after a long gaining play.  We rush to line and run the dive play almost every time.  Our group asked one of the coaches during a club meeting and he said yes that it is decided the week of the game to run dive up the middle or off tackle but we do run that play after every long impact play.  Can you tell me the percentage we do run that play and what is the typical yards gained?  It appears our competition knows this as well and has started stopping it.

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On 10/8/2016 at 8:33 PM, AUGoo said:

It's time to start listing in the O stats dropped balls and Int's.  

Should be some acknowledgment when it is not the QB's fault for an incompletion/ INT.

One of the announcers for the game agreed with you. After the pick of SW, he acknowledged that the pass should have been caught - #receiversfault - and kinda half-jokingly said those shouldn't count against a QB. 

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If only State had not lost to South. :-\

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On ‎10‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 8:33 PM, AUGoo said:

It's time to start listing in the O stats dropped balls and Int's.  

Should be some acknowledgment when it is not the QB's fault for an incompletion/ INT.

Gotta list the improbable catches also like Davis earlier this year.  I won't say it evens out but it does cut both ways. Kind of like Texas blooper single vs line drive out in baseball.

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13 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

Gotta list the improbable catches also like Davis earlier this year.  I won't say it evens out but it does cut both ways. Kind of like Texas blooper single vs line drive out in baseball.

See... I think you give a QB credit for a catch like Davis's.  No, it wasn't easy to catch, but the ball was in a place where it could be caught based on that receiver's skill set.  Now, when a ball is tipped by the D and then caught, or something like that, then I agree that the QB shouldn't get credit.

The one that really gets me is when QBs get credit for passing touchdowns when they throw a 5 yard pass and the receiver weaves his way through half the defense and then runs it another 40 yards. I think the receiver deserves solo credit for that.

Of course, the stats people want nothing to do with watching a game that closely, or making judgement calls.

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1 minute ago, lionheartkc said:

See... I think you give a QB credit for a catch like Davis's.  No, it wasn't easy to catch, but the ball was in a place where it could be caught based on that receiver's skill set.  Now, when a ball is tipped by the D and then caught, or something like that, then I agree that the QB shouldn't get credit.

The one that really gets me is when QBs get credit for passing touchdowns when they throw a 5 yard pass and the receiver weaves his way through half the defense and then runs it another 40 yards. I think the receiver deserves solo credit for that.

Of course, the stats people want nothing to do with watching a game that closely, or making judgement calls.

A catch is a catch. No problem with that, but there are many times when receivers make very hard catches on poorly thrown balls. It is what they are supposed to do. I mean heck, I am not sure Nick Marshall ever put one on the numbers, but he had some guys that could go get the ball. The throw to Davis was not poorly thrown, it was just a 50/50 ball and our guy made a great catch. But he only makes that catch about 1 out of 5 times with the coverage and with the ball being behind him like it was. Most of the time it is an incompletion.  My point is that we had I guess one drop Saturday that resulted in an int. It was not the QB's fault in the least. But I am willing to bet that sometimes this year someone will make a TD catch that maybe shouldn't have been a catch. It evens out usually.

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1 minute ago, 80Tiger said:

A catch is a catch. No problem with that, but there are many times when receivers make very hard catches on poorly thrown balls. It is what they are supposed to do. I mean heck, I am not sure Nick Marshall ever put one on the numbers, but he had some guys that could go get the ball. The throw to Davis was not poorly thrown, it was just a 50/50 ball and our guy made a great catch. But he only makes that catch about 1 out of 5 times with the coverage and with the ball being behind him like it was. Most of the time it is an incompletion.  My point is that we had I guess one drop Saturday that resulted in an int. It was not the QB's fault in the least. But I am willing to bet that sometimes this year someone will make a TD catch that maybe shouldn't have been a catch. It evens out usually.

I get you. It goes to a disagreement I had with Jeff.  I believe the QB is supposed to put the ball where it is catchable, period.  The easier he makes it to catch, the better, but if it is a catch, no matter how hard the receiver had to work, he did his job. That, of course, means that he has to know the limits of each receiver.  The only time I feel like a catch "shouldn't have been a catch", but the receiver turns it into one is when the ball is tipped or some other thing that is out of both players control.

Some argue that if a receiver has to do something out of the ordinary to make the catch, than the receiver rescued a bad pass.  I argue that it was an acceptable pass, because it could be caught, and great play by the receiver.  At the same time, when the QB hits a receiver perfectly in stride, while they are streaking down the field, or tags them right on the numbers as they cross the field... that's a great pass and not something that should be expected on every throw.  It's VERY hard to consistently place a ball perfectly with all of the other variables going on around a QB.  Heck, look how hard it is for top QBs in QB competitions, when it's just them throwing at moving targets. At the same time, quality receivers have a much wider catch radius than just the area that makes up their torso. What we should be able to expect is if the QB throws a great pass, that the receiver will catch it, because a great pass takes little to no extra effort on the receiver's part. I take it a bit farther and say that, if it touches the palms of a receivers hands, it should be a catch and the pass was good.  If it only gets their finger tips... or is out of reach... that is a bad pass.

Oh, and I agree completely with you on the INT. It sucks when the QB throws a perfectly catchable ball, even worse when it's an great pass, and ends up with an INT on his record.

Finally, I hope Davis is good enough to be a 3-5 on that pass kind of guy.  I think he has that potential.

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I'm surprised no one had brought up the stat that @StatTiger had mentioned....

6 POINTS ALLOWED in Auburn's 9 Turnovers. 

This is a mind-blowing fact for me because it goes to show you that if we make a mistake, you can depend on that it won't change the momentum entirely. We have a larger margin for error than usual. We may lose momentum on the offense, but definitely not a main factor that may affect the outcome of the game. We've been gushing how improved our defense is, but we need to grasp how unbelievable our defense has been so far in this season with this stat. Here's to hoping this won't change anytime soon!

Edited by AUDynasty

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On 10/10/2016 at 3:08 PM, lionheartkc said:

I get you. It goes to a disagreement I had with Jeff.  I believe the QB is supposed to put the ball where it is catchable, period.  The easier he makes it to catch, the better, but if it is a catch, no matter how hard the receiver had to work, he did his job. That, of course, means that he has to know the limits of each receiver.  The only time I feel like a catch "shouldn't have been a catch", but the receiver turns it into one is when the ball is tipped or some other thing that is out of both players control.

Some argue that if a receiver has to do something out of the ordinary to make the catch, than the receiver rescued a bad pass.  I argue that it was an acceptable pass, because it could be caught, and great play by the receiver.  At the same time, when the QB hits a receiver perfectly in stride, while they are streaking down the field, or tags them right on the numbers as they cross the field... that's a great pass and not something that should be expected on every throw.  It's VERY hard to consistently place a ball perfectly with all of the other variables going on around a QB.  Heck, look how hard it is for top QBs in QB competitions, when it's just them throwing at moving targets. At the same time, quality receivers have a much wider catch radius than just the area that makes up their torso. What we should be able to expect is if the QB throws a great pass, that the receiver will catch it, because a great pass takes little to no extra effort on the receiver's part. I take it a bit farther and say that, if it touches the palms of a receivers hands, it should be a catch and the pass was good.  If it only gets their finger tips... or is out of reach... that is a bad pass.

Oh, and I agree completely with you on the INT. It sucks when the QB throws a perfectly catchable ball, even worse when it's an great pass, and ends up with an INT on his record.

Finally, I hope Davis is good enough to be a 3-5 on that pass kind of guy.  I think he has that potential.

I'm willing to bet that the majority of the incompletions are uncatchable in the NFL and college are considered noncatchable passes. And yes, when WR's make great plays to catch the ball, they are otherwise turning an uncatchable ball into a completion. Whether the ball is thrown behind the WR, thrown too high, too low, or thrown to an optimal reception zone for the defender, the wide receiver will not be questioned as to why he couldn't catch the football. Never. It's got to be one or the other, a bad pass, a dropped pass or a completion, and obviously an attempted one handed grab won't go down as a dropped pass if the WR also had to soar in the air to touch it. There is a reason why detailed staticians will analyze the "catchable passes." In the very least, a great catch will rescue the pass attempt thus the incompletion. That's why you will hear quaterbacks say that their WRs make him look good or vice versa. 

You speak of the complexity of the QB position without even giving credit to the complexities of the WRs. They have to run 4.4s, turn on dimes, fight off the press, find soft zones, time their jumps, be aware of the defenders, compensate for bad passes, runblock, judge the velocity behind the passes, risk being clocked in the middle of the field, and protect the ball from being intercepted. Just because I know this line is coming,  people cannot say that WRs are on scholarship to catch the football but then forgot that the QB is going to school to throw accurate passes. The WR's are supposed to catch good passes but being on scholarship doesn't mean they're suppose to be OBJ in college.

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13 hours ago, aujeff11 said:

 And yes, when WR's make great plays to catch the ball, they are otherwise turning an uncatchable ball into a completion.

By definition... if a ball is "uncatchable" there is nothing anyone could do to actually catch it.  Receivers have a catch radius that includes behind them, over their head, etc. A QB needs to know his receiver's radius and put the ball there. Often times, he places it low, behind them, or whatever, to keep it away from defenders. 

Sports Science, or something like that, did an analysis of Calvin Johnson, once, and determined that if you threw a ball within an area around him about the size of a 2-car garage door, he could catch it.  How lucky is his QB?

13 hours ago, aujeff11 said:

It's got to be one or the other, a bad pass, a dropped pass or a completion

... or a miss-run route, a tip, a miscommunication, a defender throwing the receiver off his route... Don't forget, a lot of short to mid-range passes are thrown before the receiver even makes his break, and long passes are thrown anticipating the receivers speed, which can be thrown off by a defender.

13 hours ago, aujeff11 said:

You speak of the complexity of the QB position without even giving credit to the complexities of the WRs.

I know receivers don't have it easy.  If they did, we wouldn't have had such a drought over the past several years. Still, QB is the hardest position on the field, and consistent pinpoint accuracy passing to a moving target, especially one that changes direction, is basically impossible.  That's why you don't see running backs and wide receivers converting to QB, but you see QBs, running backs, and defensive backs converting to receiver, often successfully. 

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21 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

By definition... if a ball is "uncatchable" there is nothing anyone could do to actually catch it

Uncatchable basically means the pass cannot be considered able to be dropped. We just saw last week the WR stats of our own receivers. There were catchable passes, receptions, and drops, were there not? If a player makes a great  sportscenter catch, the play goes down as a completion instead being considered a non-catchable pass( it's absurd to suggest it could've been a drop.) It's that simple. 

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