Early line has AU 9pt favorite

[alexava 6,973]

If we win by a decent margin( not with them throwing a Hail Mary or missing a last second kick) we will be the 2 highest ranked SEC team next week.

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

22 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

Rawleigh Williams is a bit of a smokescreen... Yes, he leads the SEC in rushing, but the majority of his yards are against cupcakes and Ole Miss.  He got 49 against bama and 79 against A&M.  Allen makes up for his lack of numbers in those games, but ends up on his back a lot. In both cases, neither score much when facing a good D.  Our D is better than A&Ms... just sayin'.

Despite how the season has progressed thus far, I fear that 

One of these things in not like the others.

[logan adams 333]

3 hours ago, alexava said:

If we win by a decent margin( not with them throwing a Hail Mary or missing a last second kick) we will be the 2 highest ranked SEC team next week.

I have to disagree. I think A&M at least keeps the Alabama game somewhat close. They won't drop too far and we won't go any higher than 15.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

3 hours ago, alexava said:

If we win by a decent margin( not with them throwing a Hail Mary or missing a last second kick) we will be the 2 highest ranked SEC team next week.

We won't jump Bama or A&M, and probably won't jump UT on their off week. 3rd at best, most likely 4th with a win. 

 

This is a good match up for us. They give up 27.9 points a game and score 34.9 (+7) to our 16 and 32.3 (+16.3). In conference games they give up 41.3 and score 29.3 (-12)  to our 18.7 and 24 (+5.3).  We are the number 3 passing defense in the league by yardage given up and per attempt.

Looking at their strength: passing offense, they are number 3 in the conference in yards per attempt (guess who is number 1?), they are number 1 in passer rating (3 points ahead of guess who?) and number 3 in completion percentage (again guess who is number 1?). The only category where they are a "better" passing team is due to volume, yards, tds, attempts, completions etc. Sean's td/int ratio is one Tony Stevens tipped int away from being better the Allen's. 

Rushing offense finds them in the bottom half of the league in everything but attempts (6th) and has us top 3 in every category. 

Rushing defense has them dead last in yards per carry and touchdowns given up , giving up 5.57 per carry and 17 touchdowns (we have given up 4)! 

We will be able to run it down their throat and Sean be able to pick his spots passing in route to 30+ points. The defense will be tested with a lot of attempts passing, but contain them to 17 or so. 

Not surprised at the opening line.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

By the way the line is up to AU -10 as of today.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

30 minutes ago, AUinTLoosa said:

Despite how the season has progressed thus far, I fear that 

One of these things in not like the others.

You would be correct... but the real key is 79 yards against A&M.  He's padded his numbers against lesser teams, while our guys push or exceed 100 yards against all comers.

[alexava 6,973]

Like most games but maybe more so in this one, our pass rush will decide this. Good or bad. We can't let AA get comfortable. 

[gohogs14 178]

1 hour ago, JwgreDeux said:

In conference games they give up 41.3 and score 29.3 (-12)  to our 18.7 and 24 (+5.3).

I know these stats are all we have to go on at this point but us playing Alabama vs. Auburn playing Mississippi State makes at least a little bit of a difference

[bg5 536]

Does anyone know who all they will have out for this game? They have played a couple of rough games in a row that could be a factor.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

1 hour ago, gohogs14 said:

I know these stats are all we have to go on at this point but us playing Alabama vs. Auburn playing Mississippi State makes at least a little bit of a difference

We have played A&M, LSU, and MSU. You have played A&M, Alabama, and OleMiss. Your conference schedule so far is harder for sure, but the overall stats, not just the conference games, is why the line is where it is. Our strength of schedule is more difficult than yours by the way. https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

[gohogs14 178]

1 hour ago, bg5 said:

Does anyone know who all they will have out for this game? They have played a couple of rough games in a row that could be a factor.

S DeAndre Coley (first half suspension)

LB Dre Greenlaw (out 3-5 weeks)

RB Kody Walker (out for season)

[auburntiger1987 759]

Auburns defense hasnt given up more than 2 tds a game all season. Its worst defensive performance was agains a better offense in Texas am and still only allowed 2 tds. Lsu scored 0 and held fournette in check. I am not as worried about arkansas offense or defense. As long as au showes up and plays hard it will be around 35-20 Auburn

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

15 hours ago, auburntiger1987 said:

Auburns defense hasnt given up more than 2 tds a game all season. Its worst defensive performance was agains a better offense in Texas am and still only allowed 2 tds. Lsu scored 0 and held fournette in check. I am not as worried about arkansas offense or defense. As long as au showes up and plays hard it will be around 35-20 Auburn

LSU scored 1 touchdown in the first quarter, but I agree we will not allow Arkansas to score much. 

[auburntiger1987 759]

My bad yes there was a 3 yard td Pass in the first quarter. Another thing that I think some people may not be focusing on is Auburn's ability to tighten down and force field goal attempts. And while Arky hasn't attempted many they have missed a few.

[Richard78 73]

Why the line was so high. Basically, their D is terrible.
Ark's 8 straight game, last 2 vs Bammer and OM, now have to go to JH.

123rd in rushing yds allowed/attempt despite playing Louisiana Tech, Texas State and Alcorn State

18 rushes allowed of +20 yds. Last in the SEC.

19 passes allowed of +30 yds.

Against TCU, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss, Ark has surrendered 38, 45, 49 and 30 points — an average of more than 40 per game.