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AU opens as a road dog at Ole Miss


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6 hours ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

I realize it's about money, but it's also based in reality.  When the Arkansas line came out, I was a little surprised at how high it was.  After seeing LSU's strength hammer Ole Miss's weakness I would think the half a thousand we gained on the ground last night would have positioned this line at a TD or so.  What am I missing?  Ole Miss sold out to to stop the run against Arkansas and it cost them.  Austin Allen is probably a little more of a play maker as a passer than Shawn White but not that much.  Again, what am I missing?

17 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Kelly might be the most mobile QB we face this season ..other than Watson I guess or maybe Hurd.   AU pass rush gotta keep an eye on him when they bull rush their OL. ...he's fast enough to do some damage if the ends don't keep him contained.

I'd give that title to Trevor Knight

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One thing about Kelly is when he does get past the line on a run,  he doesn't slide much.  He will go for the extra yard more than not.  I hope we hit him hard  (below the head).

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2 hours ago, AU64 said:

Kelly might be the most mobile QB we face this season ..other than Watson I guess or maybe Hurd.   AU pass rush gotta keep an eye on him when they bull rush their OL. ...he's fast enough to do some damage if the ends don't keep him contained.

He's not even comparable in terms of actual open field running. He does know when to break off a run pretty decently. I'm not half of scared of him running as about Watson and they contained him well. 

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2 hours ago, AU64 said:

Kelly might be the most mobile QB we face this season ..other than Watson I guess or maybe Hurd.   AU pass rush gotta keep an eye on him when they bull rush their OL. ...he's fast enough to do some damage if the ends don't keep him contained.

Lucky for us, we have faced Trevor Knight and D-Watson. This better be a coming out game for our secondary, as Kelly loves to throw ill-advised passes. We need to make the interceptions, if there is ample opportunity. 

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9 hours ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

I realize it's about money, but it's also based in reality.  When the Arkansas line came out, I was a little surprised at how high it was.  After seeing LSU's strength hammer Ole Miss's weakness I would think the half a thousand we gained on the ground last night would have positioned this line at a TD or so.  What am I missing?  Ole Miss sold out to to stop the run against Arkansas and it cost them.  Austin Allen is probably a little more of a play maker as a passer than Shawn White but not that much.  Again, what am I missing?

Marketing by the odds-makers?

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We are going to beat Ole Miss by 10+.  The only reason it will be even that close is because we are playing them on the road.

 

wde

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8 hours ago, DAG said:

Lucky for us, we have faced Trevor Knight and D-Watson. This better be a coming out game for our secondary, as Kelly loves to throw ill-advised passes. We need to make the interceptions, if there is ample opportunity. 

Kelly does not have huge yards but in the last few games he's been more active...takes enough sacks however to affect his yards.  Seems to run when the need the yards.  As noted, the D this year has done a good job against the running QBs unlike some previous years.   But good idea not to turn your back on hm.

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18 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

IDK.  They are a beaten up team.  They play in a very physically demanding division/conference.  The injuries, even minor ones, can pile up.  Maybe it say more about depth than being overrated?

I can agree that running the gauntlet of the SEC is going to take its toil on any good team. But Ole Miss has lost every SEC contest they have played in, save one (Georgia). That does not tell me that they are in the top Eschalon of the SEC.

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The line will keep moving because the money is going to fall on Auburn until it hits 6.5 or so.

As for the game, they still concern me. When clicking, that offense is scary. LSU had something that most teams do not:  Jamal Adams lined up over Engram's head all night. That was a defensive game changer because Ole Miss couldn't get their best pass catcher involved. Adams was amazing on Saturday and likely moved his already high draft stock even higher. Rudy Ford may be asked to do an Adams impression, and his success or struggles will define how successful our coverage is.

Our defensive front is better than LSU's, but Kelly affects the pass rush. Knight didn't kill us with his legs but he slowed the rush. Kelly does the same thing. We were blowing upfield against Arkansas because Allen didn't have the athleticism (especially post-knee sprain) to hurt us. We'll be far more disciplined this weekend, but it also means you won't see the constant pressure that we saw against Arkansas. If we play it that way, Kelly will run for a lot of yards. He did it last year against Arkansas, LSU, MSU, and Okie State. He did it this year against Arkansas and UGA. He affected Bama as well.

It'll be a different kind of game for the defense, and their WRs present matchup problems for any secondary. It'll be fun to see how Steele attacks them. I'm also interested in how much we see three LB sets as opposed to Nickel/Dime packages.

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5 minutes ago, mcgufcm said:

The line will keep moving because the money is going to fall on Auburn until it hits 6.5 or so.

As for the game, they still concern me. When clicking, that offense is scary. LSU had something that most teams do not:  Jamal Adams lined up over Engram's head all night. That was a defensive game changer because Ole Miss couldn't get their best pass catcher involved. Adams was amazing on Saturday and likely moved his already high draft stock even higher. Rudy Ford may be asked to do an Adams impression, and his success or struggles will define how successful our coverage is.

Our defensive front is better than LSU's, but Kelly affects the pass rush. Knight didn't kill us with his legs but he slowed the rush. Kelly does the same thing. We were blowing upfield against Arkansas because Allen didn't have the athleticism (especially post-knee sprain) to hurt us. We'll be far more disciplined this weekend, but it also means you won't see the constant pressure that we saw against Arkansas. If we play it that way, Kelly will run for a lot of yards. He did it last year against Arkansas, LSU, MSU, and Okie State. He did it this year against Arkansas and UGA. He affected Bama as well.

It'll be a different kind of game for the defense, and their WRs present matchup problems for any secondary. It'll be fun to see how Steele attacks them. I'm also interested in how much we see three LB sets as opposed to Nickel/Dime packages.

Great post. Jamaal Adams made a big impact in that game. I'm curious how much man coverage we can play. I though LSU's ability to play man was a big factor as well. 

We will be able to run the ball again and that will be our biggest advantage. 

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1 hour ago, Barnacle said:

Auburn is already a 3 point favorite. 

Which, as I recall, is a 9pt favorite because home field automatically gives 6 points.

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1 minute ago, lionheartkc said:

Which, as I recall, is a 9pt favorite because home field automatically gives 6 points.

I have always heard the home field advantage was worth 3 points. 

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13 minutes ago, aufan57 said:

I have always heard the home field advantage was worth 3 points. 

I've always heard 3 as well, but I honestly don't know enough about how lines are set to say how true that is. I'm sure home field advantage is factored in, but as to there being a general rule, I doubt one exists. 

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18 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

Which, as I recall, is a 9pt favorite because home field automatically gives 6 points.

6 is right. 

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Quote

For a quick example of how home-field advantage can theoretically affect the point spread, let’s examine a matchup between two evenly matched teams. If neither team should be favored on a neutral field, the home team would likely be favored by three points. If Team A would be 3-point favorites at home and 3-point underdogs on the road, then the change of venue is essentially worth six points.

Despite the common consensus that home-field advantage is worth roughly three points, sharper sportsbooks have a dissenting opinion. According to Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for Bookmaker.eu, that number should be slightly lower. “Very generally speaking, home-field advantage is worth about two points in college football,” said Cooley. “But most of the time, home-field advantage doesn’t mean a lot to the oddsmakers, and the betting public usually places a greater value on it than it should.”

Source

 

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This sounds about right. There are no hard and fast rules when setting lines. 

1 minute ago, aufan57 said:

“But most of the time, home-field advantage doesn’t mean a lot to the oddsmakers, and the betting public usually places a greater value on it than it should.”

 

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Remember AU actually has one of the best road records in the SEC or the past few years. Gus has done well with that. Second the Defense kept both TAM and Clemson QBs in check. TAM had a late score against them because of all the 3 and outs the second half. I have no doubt that had our offense been operating as they are now the defense stats would have been much better in those games and we would have won both. Good defenses help the offense by giving them more opportunities and better field position and allowing them to run their game as opposed to being behind and having to shoot for the moon. Same for a good offense it allows the defense to get more rest in between sets and allows them better field position to operate in. When you get a team that is preforming on both sides like this one, they are going to be hard to beat. WDE

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2 hours ago, mcgufcm said:

The line will keep moving because the money is going to fall on Auburn until it hits 6.5 or so.

As for the game, they still concern me. When clicking, that offense is scary. LSU had something that most teams do not:  Jamal Adams lined up over Engram's head all night. That was a defensive game changer because Ole Miss couldn't get their best pass catcher involved. Adams was amazing on Saturday and likely moved his already high draft stock even higher. Rudy Ford may be asked to do an Adams impression, and his success or struggles will define how successful our coverage is.

Our defensive front is better than LSU's, but Kelly affects the pass rush. Knight didn't kill us with his legs but he slowed the rush. Kelly does the same thing. We were blowing upfield against Arkansas because Allen didn't have the athleticism (especially post-knee sprain) to hurt us. We'll be far more disciplined this weekend, but it also means you won't see the constant pressure that we saw against Arkansas. If we play it that way, Kelly will run for a lot of yards. He did it last year against Arkansas, LSU, MSU, and Okie State. He did it this year against Arkansas and UGA. He affected Bama as well.

It'll be a different kind of game for the defense, and their WRs present matchup problems for any secondary. It'll be fun to see how Steele attacks them. I'm also interested in how much we see three LB sets as opposed to Nickel/Dime packages.

The line will not move that much. That big of a swing would create a huge risk for the books, that bettors who bet Auburn early and bet Ole Miss late would middle the number if AU wins a close one. The line quickly moved to AU-3 and won't move much more.

1 hour ago, aufan57 said:

I have always heard the home field advantage was worth 3 points. 

This season Sagrin and many others are treating home field advantage to be worth 2.42 points. 

 

Ole Miss is still thought of very well by most of the power ranking indexes, based on a number of metrics. Every game they lost was to a ranked foe, two of them on the road and one at a neutral site. So their home record is 3-1 with a loss to Bama (a game which they had every chance to win) and a win over #12 Georgia. They are still number 2 in the league at 37 points per game and over 43 points per game at home. They are 12th in the league allowing 31.4 points per game, but that improves to 25.8 per game at home (which is still 12th in the league and not a good number).

Honestly, can't say why it opened AU+1, but AU-3 seems about right based on the metrics most books follow. 

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