aujeff11 6,243 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 #11 Auburn Tigers Last Season: 11 - 20 (5 - 13 in conference) #189 in kenpom My prediction: 7 - 11 (11th in conference) Prediction: 0 - 0 in conference the Masses Prediction: 8.8 - 9.2 (6th in conference) Gunnar Rathbun-USA TODAY Sports HEAD COACH: Bruce Pearl | second season 26 - 40 The Bruce Pearl bandwagon was filled to the brim a couple years ago when Auburn hired the enigmatic former head coach from Tennessee. The expectations were set at an incredibly high level though I’m not sure anyone was aware of just how talent deficient the roster was at the end of the Tony Barbee era. If there’s one thing you have to love about Pearl it’s that he’s not afraid to roll up his sleeves and get to work. Make no mistake, Pearl has put in the work and cobbled together a roster that is finally starting to look SEC caliber. Perhaps it was the quick turnaround at Tennessee, where he jump-started a talent laden roster into the NCAA tournament and into a perennial top 25 program, but this has been a more gradual build as he loaded up on 5th year seniors and JUCO transfers that have allowed the scholarship flexibility for Pearl to load up in the last two recruiting classes, and even in 2017 where he has a top five class. As long as the brass at Auburn are willing to foot the bill to keep Pearl happy, there are some brighter days coming to Auburn Arena. SEAT TEMP: COOL Just looking at the last five years Auburn has been very bad (#analysis). Aside from one blip in 2008, it’s been a long, sad decade or so for Auburn basketball fans. After a series of bad hires Auburn got Bruce Pearl to breathe some life into the University on the plains of Alabama. Even if the life was just enough to find a pulse for the last few years. When Pearl was hired Auburn fans bought in and started showing up to games in a big way. Auburn Arena has become a tough place to play, now just imagine how tough it will be when the Tigers are actually pretty good! The University has the money to keep Pearl happy and they should, because the way back is dark, and full of terrors. WHO’S GONE? name reason GP %min %pts %ov Cinmeon Bowers Graduated 30 .686 .122 .144 Tyler Harris Graduated 30 .685 .191 .145 Kareem Canty Professional 21 .577 .175 .289 Jordon Granger Graduated 31 .535 .067 .061 Tahj Shamsid-Deen Retired 5 .047 .006 .016 Jonathan Walker Graduation 10 .016 .002 .015 31 .499 .579 .623 Far be it from me to rag on a specific player, but I’ll be happy to never have to watch Cinmeon Bowers play basketball again. He drove me absolutely crazy by taking terrible shots and turning the ball over. As a big bodied and mobile forward he was a double-double machine until Auburn’s roster became so depleted he had to play the role of point guard. While entertaining, putting one of your least efficient offensive players in the role of primary ball handler certain had its drawbacks. The other end of the spectrum was the efficiency of 5th year transfer Tyler Harris. Probably one of the most underrated players in the conference as he played on a team who rarely had the same top 8 from game to game, and he just put up solid numbers. Had Harris had better surrounding talent around him, he likely scores less but his efficiency goes up as well. Jordan Granger actually had a solid, if unspectacular, career at Auburn. He was never going to be great player but he turned into a solid role guy who got a little exposed in being forced to play more minutes than he was prepared for. And the strange and sad saga of Tahj Shamsid-Deen came to an end when he decided to quit basketball. I’m calling it “retiring” above because his shoulder issues had gotten so bad it wasn’t possible for him to continue playing. It’s a shame because I enjoyed watching him play, an undersized guard with a huge heart whose body just couldn’t keep up. Hey everyone, remember when Kareem Canty was making an early run at SEC player of the year only to leave the team and declare for the NBA draft only to go undrafted? Yeah, me neither. WHO’S BACK? name yr pos GP %min %pts %ov T.J. Lang junior G 31 .620 .099 .080 Bryce Brown sophomore G 30 .596 .137 .096 Horace Spencer sophomore F 31 .451 .073 .043 T.J. Dunans senior G 16 .377 .084 .119 Devin Waddell senior F 26 .137 .002 .001 New Williams sophomore G 21 .107 .008 .009 Zach Allison sophomore G 10 .021 .000 .004 Cole Blackstock sophomore F 5 .007 .002 .001 Trey Tate sophomore F 1 .003 .000 .000 Danjel Purifoy R-Freshman G DNP - Academics 31 .501 .421 .377 T.J. Dunans will be tough to defend if he can stay healthy John Reed-USA TODAY Sports T.J. Dunans | SENIOR | WING One of the reasons for Auburns struggles a year ago was the health of certain key players, including T.J. Dunans who only played in 16 games. His six games of conference play were a little rocky, but considering he was coming back from an injury he played pretty well, and ended up averaging almost 12 points a game. Dunans, heading into his senior campaign, has to be ready for a break out performance. He’s already shown he can be a scorer by being one of the top guys prior to his injury, and it’s hard not to see Auburn going to Dunans as a leader, with so many young and talented players behind him. Of the other returners you’ll want to keep an eye on is Horace Spencer, who is an athletic freak of nature and showed the ability to wreak havoc on the defensive side of the ball last season as a freshman. He’s got “BRUCE_PEARL_SYSTEM” written all over him and could be a major difference maker this season. I’m a big fan of the little things T.J. Lang does as a player, he’s rarely flashy but is so effective in being the glue guy that he finds his way to the floor over more highly regarded athletes. There’s a group of good young guards who can help out this year in New Williams and Bryce Brown, both guys are athletic and exciting young players who figure to have big roles this season. WHO’S NEW? class player ht wt rating ranking pos Fr Mustapha Heron 6'5 200 26 CG Fr Jared Harper 5'11 155 109 PG Fr Anfernee McLemore 6'9 210 248 POST So Desean Murray 6'2 176 TRANSFER - Presbyterian CF Sr Ronnie Johnson 6'0 180 Grad TRANSFER - Houston PG Sr LaRon Smith 6'8 215 Grad TRANSFER -- Bethune Cookman POST Mustapha Heron figures to play a key role in Auburns resurgence Photo by Roberto Serra/Iguana Press/Getty Images Mustapha Heron | FRESHMAN | COMBO GUARD It was pretty big news when Bruce Pearl convinced Mustapha Heron to commit to Auburn. The 5-star combo guard is a physical presence when driving the ball to the basket, and has a soft lefty touch to go with it... it’s pretty easy to see why he’s so highly regarded. He’ll fit right into the rotation immediately and provide an instant impact on offense, which has been an area the Tigers have struggled with in recent years. Jared Harper is a small feisty playmaker who can shoot the cover off the ball, and the point guard of the future for the Tigers. He’ll see the floor a lot this year but for now he’ll likely back up senior 5th year transfer from Houston, Ronnie Johnson. Johnson has more experience, he’s also bigger and stronger and the kind of player who will stand up to the rigors of this schedule the Tigers are embarking on. Pearl also signed a 6’9 forward from Georgia named Anfernee McLemore who is something of a combo forward with a heavy lean towards the post, but at 210 pounds he’s got some weight to put on before being a reliable contributor. LaRon Smith on the other hand is a top level shot blocker and rebounder who should be able to help right away as another 5th year senior. The last of the newcomers is DeSean Murray, a powerful 6’4 scoring wing who is transferring from Presbyterian. Murray will have to sit out a year but figures to have an important role in the future. DEPTH CHART Point Guard Combo Guard Wing Ronnie Johnson Mustapha Heron T.J. Dunans Jared Harper Bryce Brown Danjel Purifoy Combo Forward Post Horace Spencer LeRon Smith T.J. Lang Anfernee McLemore The depth chart is difficult to figure at this point because it would appear there is a lack of depth on the interior, and a surplus on the outside, the Tigers could benefit from playing smaller if they can use the flexibility of players like Dunans and Purifoy to fill into that stretch four kind of role. SCHEDULE My Projected Record: 17 - 14 | KenPom Projected Record: 11 - 19 David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports Non-Conference: North Florida, Texas Tech, Purdue/Utah St, UAB, Boston College, Oklahoma, UConn, TCU Pearl put together a very challenging schedule. Four or five potential losses could derail a return to the postseason. Three Big 12 teams, Purdue and UConn is no joke, even if one of the Big 12 teams is rebuilding TCU now coached by Jamie Dixon. Unlike most SEC schools Auburn is really only looking at seven sure wins in their early schedule, which would make tough task getting to post season play without winning a more than a few of the toss-ups and games they won’t be favored in. Conference: Alabama (2x), Georgia (2x), LSU (2x), Missouri (2x), Ole Miss (2x), @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, @ Texas A&M Doubling up on Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss won’t be easy, and Missouri throttled Auburn last year on the road, so the favorable scheduling didn’t shine on Auburn this year. Traveling to Kentucky and Texas A&M are likely losses and South Carolina will never be a walk in the park as long as Frank Martin is there. The Tigers are going to be hellish at home but their road schedule could have broken a lot better if they’re thinking about post season play. In all Auburn is going to have to find more than a few upsets to mark this season as the turnaround. OVERVIEW So is this the year? Auburn fans, and fans of the SEC have been waiting for the Bruce Pearl that stormed into Knoxville a decade ago to show. The Pearl we knew and fell in love with (in so many ways) has been on display on the sidelines, we’re all just waiting on the box scores to change. So then the question becomes when do the box scores change. We’ve talked so far about the void left behind, one Pearl didn’t have to deal with at Tennessee, and the long road back from the abyss of a roster that needed a lot of help. So how close are the Tigers? They’re pretty close, but not quite there. Auburn last year was a disaster. Injuries, suspensions, early NBA declarations from borderline professionals ended up with a team that sank into the 200s in KenPom despite beating Kentucky in the same season. It’s hard to image a more Jeckyll and Hyde season than what Tiger fans endured a year ago. Yet here we are, with ideas of the inevitable surge towards the top of the conference. What’s different about this roster versus the past few years is the experience and depth. Players familiar with Pearl, experienced with the league, and a group that is much more talented than the roster Pearl inherited. Two consecutive classes ranked fourth in the league and this years class is currently #1, Pearl has the talent on the roster to start winning and winning consistently. With a mix of T.J. Dunans, Mustapha Heron, Danjel Purifoy, Horace Spencer, New Williams and Bryce Brown the Tigers have the ability to play at the pace Pearl wants to play at and score at the rate he wants to as well. Depending on who you talk to there are no red flags on this and it’s just onward and upward, but it’s hard to jump all in when the product to date has been so awful. I’m not saying that Bruce Pearl is the guy responsible, he’s digging out of the hole he was thrown into. I’m still a little skeptical but only because I’m waiting for the corner to be turned and he hasn’t done it to date. Why it may not happen this year is that while this is Auburns most talented roster to date, there are still holes being filled with guys we haven’t seen perform on a consistent level. I think Dunans can be a leading scorer, I think Purifoy, Williams, Heron and others can provide more of an impact than others have in the recent past, but we haven’t seen it. I want Bruce Pearl to succeed because sports are supposed to be fun and he makes it fun, but there is still a real question to whether or not this is the season it happens. My instinct tells me they are close but not quite where Pearl wants this team to be. Another season to let this roster cook and I think you have an NCAA team and a potential top 25 team. Auburn has one of the top recruiting classes in 2017 which should only bolster the depth. This season they’re going to be a fun team to watch as they get up and down the court and I’ll be tuning in more often than not, but I don’t see this as the season of redemption in Auburn. The Tigers are on the brink, but there are still a few programs that are ahead of them and more established, and when you couple that with the leagues troubles the last few years its hard too see a .500 team in league play making the tournament. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tigers make the NIT. http://www.rockmnation.com/2016/10/27/12580648/auburn-basketball-2016-preview-sec--bruce-pearl-mustapha-heron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger 8,818 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 I am very excited about this season. No way our luck will be as bad as last year. I'm just happy that there is light at the end of the tunnel. While this year may not bring a post-season birth, this current team is the first TRUE foundation BP is laying. Up to this point he was just climbing to get to ground level. Now his base is being formed. Next year will be the start of Phase II IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArgoEagle 1,767 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 I believe after the first 12 or so games, we will know what product we have on the floor. Questions have to be answered during this stretch: Is Purafoy as good as the announcers kept billing him to be last year during the season when he was sitting out, how many and which of the freshmen will be earlier contributors, can Brown and Williams be more consistent with their scoring, how quickly and how much will the grad transfers contribute? Start the Jeopardy music and break out the Pepto and Tylenol as these questions get answered. My prediction is we at least make the NIT. That would be great considering how long we have sucked in bball, and a stepping stone back to the NCAA Tourney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JwgreDeux 1,279 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 A winning season and an NIT birth would be a season of redemption, considering the state of the program in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JwgreDeux 1,279 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 1 hour ago, ArgoEagle said: I believe after the first 12 or so games, we will know what product we have on the floor. Questions have to be answered during this stretch: Is Purafoy as good as the announcers kept billing him to be last year during the season when he was sitting out, how many and which of the freshmen will be earlier contributors, can Brown and Williams be more consistent with their scoring, how quickly and how much will the grad transfers contribute? Start the Jeopardy music and break out the Pepto and Tylenol as these questions get answered. My prediction is we at least make the NIT. That would be great considering how long we have sucked in bball, and a stepping stone back to the NCAA Tourney. I think we will actually learn quite a lot about our team in the first 4 games (not counting Montevallo). Our second opponent, Georgia State, is one spot AHEAD of us in preseason kenpom ratings. How we perform there will help us adjust our expectations more accurately. Our fourth opponent, Texas Tech, is a top 50 team in kenpom, and have a big front court with most of their guys going 6-10 in the paint. How we handle their size will also give us some idea of how our small lineup will perform. CBP told us Canty was the best player on the team during the year he had to sit out, and when he hit the court he was. So, I think there is good reason to believe DP will live up to expectations. I think we know what we will get from Brown, Dunnans, and Lang. There are a lot of questions though, how much have Williams and Spencer developed, and how much can the new guys give us. Though we got burned by Canty, and Bowers was a headache at times, CBP has gotten production out of the transfers we have taken in his first two years, so I am optimistic we will indeed get production from them again this year. WIth the transfers added in, I think this team would have a chance at the NIT, but when you look at the freshmen coming on, I believe we will under achieve if we don't make the NIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 5 hours ago, Tiger said: I am very excited about this season. No way our luck will be as bad as last year. I'm just happy that there is light at the end of the tunnel. While this year may not bring a post-season birth, this current team is the first TRUE foundation BP is laying. Up to this point he was just climbing to get to ground level. Now his base is being formed. Next year will be the start of Phase II IMO. Exactly. I'm very happy we're headed toward the right way. We may make it to the NIT this year or we may make it to the dance. We may not even make it anywhere. Who knows. Regardless of what happens this year, our time feels like it is next year. Our guys are already fun to watch, so it's not going to be too hard to have a little more patience. If nothing happens again next year, that's probably when some questions should be asked. At that point, Bruce would've had plenty of time and talent to be going to the dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArgoEagle 1,767 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 18 hours ago, JwgreDeux said: I think we will actually learn quite a lot about our team in the first 4 games (not counting Montevallo). Our second opponent, Georgia State, is one spot AHEAD of us in preseason kenpom ratings. How we perform there will help us adjust our expectations more accurately. Our fourth opponent, Texas Tech, is a top 50 team in kenpom, and have a big front court with most of their guys going 6-10 in the paint. How we handle their size will also give us some idea of how our small lineup will perform. CBP told us Canty was the best player on the team during the year he had to sit out, and when he hit the court he was. So, I think there is good reason to believe DP will live up to expectations. I think we know what we will get from Brown, Dunnans, and Lang. There are a lot of questions though, how much have Williams and Spencer developed, and how much can the new guys give us. Though we got burned by Canty, and Bowers was a headache at times, CBP has gotten production out of the transfers we have taken in his first two years, so I am optimistic we will indeed get production from them again this year. WIth the transfers added in, I think this team would have a chance at the NIT, but when you look at the freshmen coming on, I believe we will under achieve if we don't make the NIT. Yea, I just thought the first 12 games b/c a lot of teams look good until they get into conference play, and then start falling apart. With basically a whole new starting lineup, you don't really know how well the players will gel as a team either. It usually takes several games to gel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
douggwilliams 61 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Very well written, but not Close enough to the program to see how good we will be. Still waiting on that futures total wins bet to show up on the sports book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuburnNTexas 7,128 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 I think this was a very good and realistic write-up. It touched on the improvement in talent and depth but also that a lot of the improvement and depth is on paper and we haven't actually seen many of these players so there are question marks. I think NIT is reasonable goal and I think there is an outside chance of this team making NCAA. Big question marks on size as we don't really have any and defense. Like article says first 4 or 5 games will help us answer some of those questions. Now stealing a line from Gus the key to this team is getting better 1 game at a time. Being so young there is a lot of learning and the quicker they learn to play as a team the sooner we will know how good they could become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger 8,818 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Forewarning: This post is relaying somebody else's opinion and his prognostication could be wrong but I thought it was interesting. I got the following info from War Eagle Live podcast/live show that has Justin Hokanson and Rob Pate as the main hosts (I totally recommend checking it out it's on every Tuesday on facebook on the War Eagle Live fbook page, Rob Pate's insight is great and his former players' point of view really brings something positive to the show): The show runs about an hour or so usually and every few episodes they include about 15 minutes of basketball talk with a guy close to the program -- I can't remember his credentials I missed where they introduced him. Apparently we played a "secret game" against UT-Chatanooga this past Friday. He explained programs all across the country do this, there is no media allowed and only members of the team and staff are allowed in the gymnasium. It is a fully reffed game. UT-Chatanooga apparently had quite a bit of juniors and seniors coming back from a 29-6 team last season, and Auburn's staff was "extremely pleased" with how Auburn played. Surprisingly happy actually. The guy on the podcast was explaining that we basically blew the doors off of them. He said we will struggle with bigger teams and our lack of a true rim protector will hurt us some. He also said he wouldn't be surprised if Laron Smith started over Horace at the 5 spot. He guessed the starting 5 would be Harper, Heron, Dunans, DJP, and Smith. Take it for what it's worth. IDK how this guy got his info if these turbo-scrimmages are so under the radar, but what he was saying was very promising regarding the game vs UT-C. He also said he could see us winning 15 games just as well as seeing us win in the mid 20's. UT-Chat is still a non-P5 school, so who knows what that means. I felt it was better to do really well than the opposite. You just can't tell with so many newcomers and guys playing together for the first time and how the team chemistry is and also how these guys play together when the real lights come on. Either way, I was glad to hear that we beat the brakes off of our opponent rather than the opposite. I am getting excited for this season and to continue to see our program grow! Even if this guy's positive vibes are off base, we are heading in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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