StatTiger

Malzahn running game vs. Poor run defenses

52 posts in this topic

During Gus Malzahn's tenure at Auburn, the Tigers have faced 16 opponents that allowed more than 190-yards per game rushing. Of those 16 teams, 8 were from the SEC.

Auburn's record in those games is 15-1 with the one loss coming to Texas A&M in 2014. That loss had more to do with bad turnovers and a really bad defense.

During those 16 games, Auburn averaged 359-yards rushing and 46 PPG. This included gaining 59% more rushing yardage than those 16 teams normally allowed for the season. Only 1 of those 16 teams prevented Auburn from rushing for more yards than the opponent normally allowed and that was Kentucky 2015.
 

                       
Year Opponent Yds Att TD Avg Opp Pct LOC Opp Aub Opp Rslt
2016 La. Monroe 410 66 5 6.21 297 38.05 H NON 58 7 W
2016 Arkansas 543 57 7 9.53 222 144.59 H SEC 56 3 W
2016 Ark State 462 62 3 7.45 197 134.52 H NON 51 14 W
2015 Idaho 297 51 5 5.82 273 8.79 H NON 56 34 W
2015 Texas A&M 311 52 1 5.98 214 45.33 A SEC 26 10 W
2015 San Jose St 234 48 5 4.88 201 16.42 H NON 35 21 W
2015 Kentucky 152 47 3 3.23 196 -22.45 A SEC 30 27 W
2014 San Jose State 358 50 6 7.16 231 54.98 H NON 59 13 W
2014 Texas A&M 363 59 4 6.15 216 68.06 H SEC 38 41 L
2014 S.Carolina 395 45 5 8.78 212 86.32 H SEC 42 35 W
2013 W. Carolina 511 43 5 11.88 277 84.48 H NON 62 3 W
2013 Texas A&M 379 60 4 6.32 222 70.72 A SEC 45 41 W
2013 Tennessee 444 53 5 8.38 207 114.49 A SEC 55 23 W
2011 Ole Miss 254 50 1 5.08 225 12.89 H SEC 41 23 W
2011 Samford 248 49 4 5.06 193 28.50 H NON 35 16 W
2010 Arkansas St 367 49 4 7.49 207 77.29 H NON 52 26 W
                         

I realize Ole Miss could beat Auburn this Saturday but it would take a collapse in one phase of the game for it to happen. The probability is high that Auburn will win Saturday and very high that Auburn will have great success running the football against the Rebels.  I always feel more confident when Auburn plays teams that struggle against the run. Since 1990, Auburn is 46-1-1 in games the opponent allows at least 190 rushing per game for the season. The average score in those 48 games, 42-16.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Auburn's record in those games is 15-1 with the one loss coming to Texas A&M in 2014. That loss had more to do with bad turnovers and a really bad defense.

And questionable officiating... 

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3 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

And questionable officiating... 

I forgot about that. Cameron Artis Payne recovered that fumble.

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Another quick note... the Kentucky game was a Thursday night game.  That could be a variable in the it being an outlier. 

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UK was giving up the pass that night too.  Ricardo Louis had a great night.

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We are going to kick Ole Miss' ass.  We now have competent defense which is the most important variable on the team.  This is the first time AU has had a real D since Tuberville.

 

wde

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What I am seeing right now is a 2016 team that the offense has become at least almost as good if not better than the 2013 team combined with an extremely good defense. This team is more complete than the 2013 version and they went on to beat a very good uat team and win an SEC title as well as play for a NC, I don't know how it will finish but I would be surprised if they lose another game at this point. WDE

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This is a very telling stat. I'm liking our chances even more for a W, if not a complete blowout like the last two.

StatTiger - I'm guessing those games were pretty even split home vs away?

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20 minutes ago, hikerdns said:

This is a very telling stat. I'm liking our chances even more for a W, if not a complete blowout like the last two.

StatTiger - I'm guessing those games were pretty even split home vs away?

12 home games. 4 away games.

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Speaking of the Malzahn running game, exactly how much do we run the Wing T? Seems I rarely see us use it but Clemson DC Brent Venables blathered he stopped Auburn by Youtube-ing a high school running it and Googled how to stop it.     

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Lets not get carried away.  From an Oline - RB perspective, yes i'm feeling good.  However, I think uat is better than 2013, and we are playing them in ttown. It probably won't be tomorrow, but we need to use the games between now and then to work on our downfield passing. And while turnovers have not been a major issue, Pettway has put the rock on the ground a few times and White has had a few potential interceptions dropped. Against Bama, 2 turnovers would probably put us 14 points in the hole.

13 hours ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

What I am seeing right now is a 2016 team that the offense has become at least almost as good if not better than the 2013 team combined with an extremely good defense. This team is more complete than the 2013 version and they went on to beat a very good uat team and win an SEC title as well as play for a NC, I don't know how it will finish but I would be surprised if they lose another game at this point. WDE

 

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13 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Speaking of the Malzahn running game, exactly how much do we run the Wing T? Seems I rarely see us use it but Clemson DC Brent Venables blathered he stopped Auburn by Youtube-ing a high school running it and Googled how to stop it.     

As I understand it, Lashlee has basically cut it from our playbook.  Gus ran it a lot.

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If the OL can once again block well and we don't turn the ball over we will win, maybe by a lot. I am sure that we will try and run the ball about 75% of the time tomorrow. 

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15 hours ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

What I am seeing right now is a 2016 team that the offense has become at least almost as good if not better than the 2013 team combined with an extremely good defense. This team is more complete than the 2013 version and they went on to beat a very good uat team and win an SEC title as well as play for a NC, I don't know how it will finish but I would be surprised if they lose another game at this point. WDE

I don't think we are that good yet. Nick Marshall is the difference. ( on offense) We have a chance to be by passing more but I don't think we need to till bammer. As far as overall better than '13 you may be right. This defense is tremendously better than '13. Alabama always looks unbeatable to me. If our front can make them throw it and contain qb scrambles we might rattle them to a place they haven't been before. 

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49 minutes ago, alexava said:

If our front can make them throw it and contain qb scrambles we might rattle them to a place they haven't been before. 

That and not giving them defensive/special team scores is the key to beating them.  They aren't the world beaters the media tries to make them out to be.

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I'm feeling confident in my 42-16 prediction

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16 hours ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

What I am seeing right now is a 2016 team that the offense has become at least almost as good if not better than the 2013 team combined with an extremely good defense. This team is more complete than the 2013 version and they went on to beat a very good uat team and win an SEC title as well as play for a NC, I don't know how it will finish but I would be surprised if they lose another game at this point. WDE

2016 offense better than 2013? Not even close although this team is finally finding its identity . We need to see how things play it before we make that case. 

Edited by DAG

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26 minutes ago, DAG said:

2016 offense better than 2013? Not even close although this team is finally finding its identity . We need to see how things play it before we make that case. 

Through 7 games...

2013: 494.6 YPG & 36.3 PPG / 300.4 rush / 139.5 pass rating / 66 impact plays / 45.2% 3rd down / 6.67 yds per play on 1st down

2016: 501.0 YPG & 35.7 PPG / 302.8 rush / 151.8 pass rating / 61 impact plays / 48.5% 3rd down / 6.40 yds per play on 1st down

  Very close indeed but the key will be how the 2016 offense closes out the season.

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53 minutes ago, bigbird said:

I'm feeling confident in my 42-16 prediction

Dude. That's scary. Nicely done. 

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I realize we have to consider the entire season in those comparisons....but somehow we need the ability to put an * by the Clemson game.    The offense was so out of kilter for that game it's not anywhere representative of the Offensive scheme we have seen since then.   Even the LSU game was pretty strong despite not getting into the end zone. 

I'm feeling good about the game tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, StatTiger said:

Through 7 games...

2013: 494.6 YPG & 36.3 PPG / 300.4 rush / 139.5 pass rating / 66 impact plays / 45.2% 3rd down / 6.67 yds per play on 1st down

2016: 501.0 YPG & 35.7 PPG / 302.8 rush / 151.8 pass rating / 61 impact plays / 48.5% 3rd down / 6.40 yds per play on 1st down

  Very close indeed but the key will be how the 2016 offense closes out the season.

I thought it when DAG posted his comment, but then you replied immediately with the numbers. Well done.

The 2013 team, like this one, improved as the season went along with regard to finding identity, etc. And it closed strong and got some bounces. Here's hoping... (actually, I'd prefer we don't rely on getting bounces like those).

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3 minutes ago, bryanlooney said:

The 2013 team, like this one, improved as the season went along with regard to finding identity, etc. And it closed strong and got some bounces. Here's hoping... (actually, I'd prefer we don't rely on getting bounces like those).

The big difference between 2013 Auburn and 2016 Auburn on offense... LUCK.

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Just now, lionheartkc said:

The big difference between 2013 Auburn and 2016 Auburn on offense... LUCK.

... So far

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