RunInRed 16,356 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Quote SIREN IN NEVADA -- Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports), Nevada’s top political reporter, tweeted at 2:41 a.m. EST that Democrats have built up an insurmountable lead in Nevada, and he expects them to carry the state based on returns in Clark County (the Las Vegas area). “Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.” -- MORE RALSTON (Saturday morning): “Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.” http://bit.ly/2fyPctShttp://politi.co/2fbxUyC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,465 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 I don't think it's that solid. Last three polls there from RCP are Trump +3, Trump +6 and Tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 12,800 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 32 minutes ago, TitanTiger said: I don't think it's that solid. Last three polls there from RCP are Trump +3, Trump +6 and Tie. Solid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,465 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, TexasTiger said: Solid! Pretty much. One is a local Las Vegas station, one from CNN and the other from Remington Research. The race is fluid, but I think the confidence in the original post is misplaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,356 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 2 hours ago, TitanTiger said: Pretty much. One is a local Las Vegas station, one from CNN and the other from Remington Research. The race is fluid, but I think the confidence in the original post is misplaced. Maybe ... but when you hear about "internals" ... it's folks like this who live it day in and day out. Supposedly, this guy knows Nevada better than most and has tons of street cred. And remember, so goes Clark County, so goes Nevada. The numbers just aren't there in the rest of the state to make up for big Democratic turnout which is evidently what happened Friday during early voting. Lastly I'll just note, what others have been saying, Clinton's ground game / GOTV is and has always, dwarfed Trumps. If the Democratic voters show up, it's game over in far more places than just Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,356 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 Quote Early voting kills Trump in NV ----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over. ----The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 -- slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That's 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent. ----The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000. ----Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in -- close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang. As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist): 1,904 voted 1,258: Ds, 66% 165: Rs, 9% 481: NPs, 25% So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead. Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy. http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURaptor 1,121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Election is Nov 8. Polls don't = votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,356 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 11 minutes ago, AURaptor said: Election is Nov 8. Polls don't = votes. These aren't polls. This is raw early vote count. While we don't know the actual vote results per se, we do know how many were registered Republicans vs. Democrats. See data I just posted above ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,356 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'll make another prediction, the Hispanic vote, which Clinton is on pace to capture somewhere in the neighborhood of 7:3 nation wide, is going to be a big story come Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auburn85 432 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 She has numerous paths to 270 without Nevada anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,356 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Auburn85 said: She has numerous paths to 270 without Nevada anyways. True. But the real question is how many does Trump have without Nevada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUUSN 823 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, RunInRed said: I'll make another prediction, the Hispanic vote, which Clinton is on pace to capture somewhere in the neighborhood of 7:3 nation wide, is going to be a big story come Tuesday night. I was just about to mention this. The Latino vote is going to carry Clinton to an easy win Tuesday night. The election will be called before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auburn85 432 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 lol zero Zero without Florida Zero without North Carolina And heck, Georgia and Arizona are still too close for comfort for Republicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUUSN 823 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Clinton crushes Trump in Nevada early voting The results, as detailed by Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston, were fueled by a surge of Hispanic voters, who might have been extra-motivated to participate because of the Republican nominee's hardline policies on legal and illegal immigration. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/clinton-crushes-trump-in-nevada-early-voting/article/2606583 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auburn85 432 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 22 minutes ago, RunInRed said: I'll make another prediction, the Hispanic vote, which Clinton is on pace to capture somewhere in the neighborhood of 7:3 nation wide, is going to be a big story come Tuesday night. This I wholeheartedly agree with. I believe it well help her win Florida. Only way Trump wins Nevada is if Gary Johnson peels off enough Hispanic vote. And Johnson's numbers are obviously trending downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUUSN 823 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over. http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUUSN 823 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURaptor 1,121 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 6 hours ago, RunInRed said: These aren't polls. This is raw early vote count. While we don't know the actual vote results per se, we do know how many were registered Republicans vs. Democrats. See data I just posted above ... Don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUDub 11,131 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 25 minutes ago, AURaptor said: Don't care. You don't care that you were wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said: You don't care that you were wrong? Does he ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUDub 11,131 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Just now, Brad_ATX said: Does he ever? He's gotten worse lately, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,352 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said: Does he ever? Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumps 3,693 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Wow! I guess there is no reason to vote, then, huh? Thanks for saving me the trouble of voting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUDub 11,131 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Just now, Grumps said: Wow! I guess there is no reason to vote, then, huh? Thanks for saving me the trouble of voting! Odd conclusion to draw from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumps 3,693 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Bigbens42 said: Odd conclusion to draw from this thread. How so? You guys say that Clinton has Nevada locked up and Trump can't win without Nevada. So why should I vote. I mean, why would anyone make false claims about election results? Hee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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