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StatTiger

Notes on the running games this Saturday

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Auburn is currently +63% in run-offense and -27.4% on run-defense.

This means Auburn averages 63% more rushing than their opponent normally allows, while the defense has held their opponent to 27% below the opponent's rushing average.


Auburn averages 300 yards per game rushing, while allowing 126-yards on defense.

Georgia is -8.2% in run-offense and -27.9% on run-defense.

Georgia averages 178 yards per game rushing, while allowing 117-yards per game on defense.

This projects Auburn to rush for 192-216 yards Saturday and for UGA to rush for 116-129 yards. Auburn ran for 213-yards last year but managed only 13 points. Auburn's offense under Malzahn has averaged only 19 PPG in conference play with 190-230 yards rushing.

During the last 35 games in this series, the team with the most rush attempts is 25-7-1. The two teams split the two games they had the same number of rush attempts.

Without the possible services of Kamryn Pettway, Georgia might be catching the Tigers at the right time. I do believe Auburn can have a solid night running the football but it will require passing to set up the run. Kirby Smart has extended experience studying Auburn's offensive tendencies under Gus Malzahn. Rhett Lashlee needs to be creative, aggressive and unpredictable this Saturday.

Malzahn at Auburn is 9-2 in games his run-offense was held to 100-199 yards rushing BUT his pass-offense had a pass rating of at least 130. They averaged 27.8 PPG during those 11 games. Auburn has compiled a pass rating of at least 146.8 during 7 of their 9 games this season. IMO, 28 points should be enough to beat this Georgia team.
 

Player Year Opponent Com Att Int Yards TD Pct YPA Rating
Sean White 2016 Clemson 10 21 1 140 0 48% 6.7 94.10
Sean White 2016 Arkansas St 17 23 0 244 3 74% 10.6 206.07
Sean White 2016 Texas A&M 18 27 0 126 0 67% 4.7 105.87
Sean White 2016 LSU 19 26 0 234 0 73% 9.0 148.68
Sean White 2016 La-Monroe 14 17 0 239 2 82% 14.1 239.27
Sean White 2016 Miss State 14 18 1 204 1 78% 11.3 180.20
Sean White 2016 Arkansas 6 11 0 77 1 55% 7.0 143.35
Sean White 2016 Ole Miss 15 22 0 247 1 68% 11.2 177.49
Sean White 2016 Vanderbilt 10 13 0 106 1 77% 8.2 170.80
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I am curious to see your predicted score on this game based on your stats like you have done in the past.  I guess the potential players withheld because of injuries would skew it though

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We have def. got to throw the ball more to beat Ga and Bama. We were very 1 dimensional in the 1st half of the Vandy game and only managed 10 points. We were slightly more successful in the 2nd half by throwing more, but the offensive play calling was still too predictable IMO. I believe one thing we need to do for sure to be successful the last 2 games here, is to throw the ball much more on 1st down, and I'm not talking about bubble screens. We can't afford to be too predictable on O for these 2 games, or it will not be good for us. Not going to run over GA and Bama like we did Ole Miss and Arky.

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10 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Auburn averages 300 yards per game rushing, while allowing 126-yards on defense.

^Recipe for success.^

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1 hour ago, ArgoEagle said:

We have def. got to throw the ball more to beat Ga and Bama. We were very 1 dimensional in the 1st half of the Vandy game and only managed 10 points. We were slightly more successful in the 2nd half by throwing more, but the offensive play calling was still too predictable IMO. I believe one thing we need to do for sure to be successful the last 2 games here, is to throw the ball much more on 1st down, and I'm not talking about bubble screens. We can't afford to be too predictable on O for these 2 games, or it will not be good for us. Not going to run over GA and Bama like we did Ole Miss and Arky.

I feel like I haven't seen as many bubble screens since Lashlee has taken over the past calling. I haven't kept count, but I'd almost say there have been more reverses than bubble screens.

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Just now, WDEKC said:

I feel like I haven't seen as many bubble screens since Lashlee has taken over the past calling. I haven't kept count, but I'd almost say there have been more reverses than bubble screens.

Yes, I know this. I am saying I hope we don't revert back to them. We need to throw a lot more 10 - 15 yard intermediate routes, some of them on 1st down to keep the defense honest and guessing rather than knowing we are going to run on 1st down every time. Will make our running game much more effective.

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I liked the slant pass to Jason Smith. One of the best passes White threw Saturday. Hope we can incorporate that pass into the offense more often.

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I was talking to my brother today and he pointed out this fact to me about Georgia's game against Kentucky Saturday night. Kentucky didn't throw the ball much  mainly ran the ball. Hopefully, that bodes well for our game Saturday

 

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Has anyone noticed Sean White has only thrown two interceptions all year (knock on wood)?

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28 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

Has anyone noticed Sean White has only thrown two interceptions all year (knock on wood)?

And one of them was 100% on Tony. So happy to have some stability at the position, IF Sean can stay healthy. 

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55 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

And one of them was 100% on Tony. So happy to have some stability at the position, IF Sean can stay healthy. 

And the 2nd was a 4th down pass into the endzone

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3 minutes ago, Piketiger1990 said:
59 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

And one of them was 100% on Tony. So happy to have some stability at the position, IF Sean can stay healthy. 

And the 2nd was a 4th down pass into the endzone

At the same time, he got lucky on a couple, too... but as QBs go with protecting the ball, I've not seen anyone do it better at Auburn. It will be interesting to see if he can continue at this level if we increase the amount of passing in our game plan. 

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On 11/7/2016 at 8:17 AM, alexava said:

Might need C Cox to carry the ball some this week. 

Which makes me nervous, since I wouldn't put it past Georgia, at all, to go head hunting and see if they can't knock him out for the rest of the year. I love how Sean uses his legs, but he takes unnecessary risks, sometimes, and I'd rather he be protected from a team with a reputation for cheap shots while he's not 100% healthy.

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1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

Which makes me nervous, since I wouldn't put it past Georgia, at all, to go head hunting and see if they can't knock him out for the rest of the year. I love how Sean uses his legs, but he takes unnecessary risks, sometimes, and I'd rather he be protected from a team with a reputation for cheap shots while he's not 100% healthy.

I think we are mistook. 

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7 minutes ago, alexava said:

I think we are mistook. 

You're right... I'm not focused today...

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10 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

You're right... I'm not focused today...

you need a Snickers.

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5 minutes ago, SumterAubie said:

you need a Snickers.

Couldn't hurt...

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15 hours ago, milehighfan said:

I was talking to my brother today and he pointed out this fact to me about Georgia's game against Kentucky Saturday night. Kentucky didn't throw the ball much  mainly ran the ball. Hopefully, that bodes well for our game Saturday

 

Well, KY lost and they cannot throw a lick, so their options are really limited

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54 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

Well, KY lost and they cannot throw a lick, so their options are really limited

I believe the point he was making is that a Kentucky team, who Georgia knew was going to run, still managed to run on them and take the game down to the wire, so an Auburn team with a top rushing attack and a very reliable passer, should be able to move the ball with ease.

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I certainly don't think anything will come easy in this game. But I like our chances much better with Sean and hopefully Kam on the field.Good news for the defense, Tre Williams and Deshaun Davis will be back at linebacker. If everyone shows up ready to play they can enjoy a short, yet happy ride back to Auburn.

 

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Georgia is ranked #20 nationally and 3rd in the SEC in rushing defense, giving up a little under 120 ypg.  They have, however, compiled this ranking against teams with an average ranking in rushing offense of 80th.  The only team they have played not included in this average is Nicholls State which is an FCS program.

Kentucky is the best rushing offense they have faced with a ranking of 31st.  Kentucky averages 215 ypg and actually rushed for 186 against Georgia.

We can, and will, run the ball on Georgia.

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