A Head Coach Challenge

[Auburn Elvis 5]

Quote

Even if you win your bowl game, your last three seasons will equate to a 24-15 record over the past three seasons. Auburn expects more than a win percentage of 61.5%. It is important you remember; Gene Chizik was fired for winning only 63.5 percent of his games.

This is the most (i.e. only) intellectually dishonest thing I've ever seen StatTiger publish. For years, people have cherry-picked Chizk's worst years, and omitted 2010 because it suited their argument. Now, StatTiger has done the same with Gus by omitting 2013, a season that is just as legitimate as any other in his time at Auburn, while conveniently including Chizik's best year in a sad attempt to make Gus's record seem worse than Chizik's. His use of truncated statistics to serve an agenda is shameful, and it makes me think less of him as a writer and analyst. Until that paragraph, I have always appreciated StatTiger's objectivity, but I now feel betrayed. He needs to reconsider if he truly stands behind that paragraph because it is not up to the standards of his years-worth of quality work.

Edited November 29, 2016 by Auburn Elvis

[Dloc 2]

Couldn't have said it better myself.  I truly hope this is the basic criteria we present to Gus in terms of his job security and the school's vision for the football program going forward.  And I hope that someone in the administration breaks down his and the team's shortcomings as clearly as you have and calls him out on it.  I wonder sometimes if Gus is the only one who doesn't see it, or want to acknowledge them.  

The only other critique I'd make of Gus is that at the college level, going all the way back to his first gig as OC at Arky working with Mustain, he has yet to successfully identify, recruit, sign and develop a HS quarterback despite having had some of the highest nationally rated HS players at the position to work with during his college coaching career.  Let's just call it what it is: we caught JUCO lightning in a bottle with Cam and Nick Marshall (and Chris Todd for that matter!).

I like Gus and would love for him to be our coach for years to come.  But, I like seeing our program consistently run at or near top end efficiency in terms of performance much more.  

Going back to Bowden it seems like we can just not handle success and always fail to build off of and sustain it after season(s) of high achievement.  I just don't get that with us, but I sure hope to see it end soon.  

War Damn Eagle(anydamnway)!   Let's finish this year on a high note with a Sugar Bowl win!!!!

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 hour ago, Dloc said:

The only other critique I'd make of Gus is that at the college level, going all the way back to his first gig as OC at Arky working with Mustain, he has yet to successfully identify, recruit, sign and develop a HS quarterback despite having had some of the highest nationally rated HS players at the position to work with during his college coaching career.

Here's the thing... he identified, signed, and developed a QB out of high school who spent the majority of this season as the highest rated QB in the SEC and several weeks, near the end of the season, in the top 10 in the country. It really bothers me, not for Gus's sake but for Sean's sake, that people write him off because he got hurt. Yes, his propensity for injury makes him a potential liability, but that does not discount the fact that he is one of the best QBs to ever wear an Auburn uniform... and yes, he was in fact recruited and developed under Gus/Rhett.

Gus has one real problem... his entire offensive strategy, going all the way back to Arkansas, was being innovative.  He showed defenses things they hadn't seen before, and forced them to adjust. Now everyone is using elements of HIS playbook, and it's no longer innovative, so while it still works against similar or inferior opponents, it no longer slays giants. He either needs to change his focus to fundamental football and dramatically increase the utilization and diversity of the passing game, or he needs to develop the next new thing.

[Linayus 676]

Chizik's record for seasons including 2010: .635
Malzahn's record for seasons including 2013: .673

With or without - Stat's point remains the same. Gus has gotten a pass only because we haven't had a 3-8 season with him. But overall winning percentage has not improved as much as Auburn wants.

You trolls can go away now. Thanks for visiting.

[doug3020 842]

11 hours ago, aujeff11 said:

All I did was point out a disparity. Did I do something to deserve that unnecessary sarcasm? Don't play it off as a joke unless you meant it as a joke either. Maybe you like to read doctored up stats, but once I find out extra spin is behind the effor, stats start to become more scrutinized with a finer comb.

You not only pointed out a disparity, to which I answered, you also said "agenda driven statistics" to which I responded with my own assessment. The statistics I provided are FACTS. Facts are stubborn. If you want to use a fine tooth comb to scrutinize a post, have a field day, but please don't miss the forest due to the trees. We have significant issues on offense. Bottom line, everyone on this board wants Auburn to win. I am sorry for the "unecessary sarcasm". Enjoy your day....WDE!

[AUpreacherman22 3,876]

Great points as usual Stat. 

Also, well communicated. 

Anyone with influence, please try to get this letter to Gus and the ptb on behalf of the AUFamily. 

[aubiefifty 16,695]

so did stat use the word criminal as a noun or a verb? lol  i think stat has posted enough on his time here for reasonable folks to realize he is not known for being dishonest but objective. he sure donates a lot of time to help us look at things clearer and i for one appreciate the time he takes for us.

[Auburn Elvis 5]

1 hour ago, Linayus said:

Chizik's record for seasons including 2010: .635
Malzahn's record for seasons including 2013: .673

With or without - Stat's point remains the same. Gus has gotten a pass only because we haven't had a 3-8 season with him. But overall winning percentage has not improved as much as Auburn wants.

Without an apples to apples comparison, his stats are worthless. You say the point's the same regardless of including 2013, then why not include it? And overall winning percentage ISN'T what's important to Auburn fans, it's what's happening now and where's it likely to go. THAT'S why Chizik got fired. And by that measure, Gus is so far ahead of Chizik (I don't recall Chizik getting to the Sugar Bowl in 2012), the two coaches aren't even comparable.

[Linayus 676]

1 hour ago, Auburn Elvis said:

Without an apples to apples comparison, his stats are worthless. You say the point's the same regardless of including 2013, then why not include it? And overall winning percentage ISN'T what's important to Auburn fans, it's what's happening now and where's it likely to go. THAT'S why Chizik got fired. And by that measure, Gus is so far ahead of Chizik (I don't recall Chizik getting to the Sugar Bowl in 2012), the two coaches aren't even comparable.

Perhaps he meant to or looked at the wrong stat? Who knows.

We lucked into the Sugar Bowl for the most part (seriously, an 8-4 team in the freaking Sugar Bowl!) the way we collapsed offensively with injuries. That aside, the point was that we won't suffer those winning percentages very long without something changing - particularly on the offensive side. Do we think that we're on the way up? With the talent we have, we want to think so. Did we feel that way in 2012 with Chizik? No, for a whole mess of reasons. But if we go 8-4 again next season, are we still okay with this (especially if 2 losses are to Georgia and Bama)? Do we give him another season? I think that resounding answer would be no.

[bigbird 60,368]

4 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

Gus has one real problem... his entire offensive strategy, going all the way back to Arkansas, was being innovative.  He showed defenses things they hadn't seen before, and forced them to adjust. Now everyone is using elements of HIS playbook, and it's no longer innovative, so while it still works against similar or inferior opponents, it no longer slays giants.

The strategy and scheme work well. The plays are effective as well. That said, the predictably and tendencies make it ineffective.  Running the same dive out of the same formation is predictable. Running the same dive out of 4 different sets with 4 different motions eliminates the predictability. Its all about the play calling.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

7 minutes ago, bigbird said:

The strategy and scheme work well. The plays are effective as well. That said, the predictably and tendencies make it ineffective.  Running the same dive out of the same formation is predictable. Running the same dive out of 4 different sets with 4 different motions eliminates the predictability. Its all about the play calling.

Agreed... but it's not like he was unpredictable in his play calling and then just got predictable. Early on he could run the same play out of the same formation and no one could stop it, because it was different than what they had seen (and because he often had QBs who could improvise and O-Lines that could stop a wrecking ball and make mack truck sized holes).  Now DCs know how to stop it, because they've seen it... if their team isn't actually running it themselves, and we don't have the all world O-Line or quick-footed QB to make something out of nothing.  

Early on Gus slayed giants by wearing them down.  Now they condition for 80 plays a game.  He's got to find new wrinkles that take advantage of other weaknesses and don't take so long to develop that the 5 star DE is on our QB before he can make anything happen.

That's why I think he needs an OC with a different background, so he can develop the next hybrid offense that people have to figure out how to defend and be successful without having the best QB and running back on the field for every game.

[AU-24 3,063]

7 hours ago, Auburn Elvis said:

This is the most (i.e. only) intellectually dishonest thing I've ever seen StatTiger publish. For years, people have cherry-picked Chizk's worst years, and omitted 2010 because it suited their argument. Now, StatTiger has done the same with Gus by omitting 2013, a season that is just as legitimate as any other in his time at Auburn, while conveniently including Chizik's best year in a sad attempt to make Gus's record seem worse than Chizik's. His use of truncated statistics to serve an agenda is shameful, and it makes me think less of him as a writer and analyst. Until that paragraph, I have always appreciated StatTiger's objectivity, but I now feel betrayed. He needs to reconsider if he truly stands behind that paragraph because it is not up to the standards of his years-worth of quality work.

I just don't think STAT did this to be purposely misleading or dishonest. He seems like too good of a writer for that. JMO

[augolf1716 21,095]

5 hours ago, Auburn Elvis said:

Without an apples to apples comparison, his stats are worthless. You say the point's the same regardless of including 2013, then why not include it? And overall winning percentage ISN'T what's important to Auburn fans, it's what's happening now and where's it likely to go. THAT'S why Chizik got fired. And by that measure, Gus is so far ahead of Chizik (I don't recall Chizik getting to the Sugar Bowl in 2012), the two coaches aren't even comparable.

Well their really close to being comparable

[oracle79 3,569]

5 hours ago, Auburn Elvis said:

Without an apples to apples comparison, his stats are worthless. You say the point's the same regardless of including 2013, then why not include it? And overall winning percentage ISN'T what's important to Auburn fans, it's what's happening now and where's it likely to go. THAT'S why Chizik got fired. And by that measure, Gus is so far ahead of Chizik (I don't recall Chizik getting to the Sugar Bowl in 2012), the two coaches aren't even comparable.

Did you really just say that and complain about STAT leaving out Malzahn's first OUTLIER year?  Wow!  Not much to say if you don't see the irony in that.

[aujeff11 6,243]

7 hours ago, Auburn Elvis said:

Without an apples to apples comparison, his stats are worthless. You say the point's the same regardless of including 2013, then why not include it? And overall winning percentage ISN'T what's important to Auburn fans, it's what's happening now and where's it likely to go. THAT'S why Chizik got fired. And by that measure, Gus is so far ahead of Chizik (I don't recall Chizik getting to the Sugar Bowl in 2012), the two coaches aren't even comparable.

Agreed. If he made a mistake he could own up to it. I get the point, and you get it. And we both get the point Stat is trying to make. There is some intellectual honestly left though. Just don't turn on the news. Haha

Edited November 30, 2016 by aujeff11

[AUBwins 10,064]

6 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

Agreed... but it's not like he was unpredictable in his play calling and then just got predictable. Early on he could run the same play out of the same formation and no one could stop it, because it was different than what they had seen (and because he often had QBs who could improvise and O-Lines that could stop a wrecking ball and make mack truck sized holes).  Now DCs know how to stop it, because they've seen it... if their team isn't actually running it themselves, and we don't have the all world O-Line or quick-footed QB to make something out of nothing.  

Early on Gus slayed giants by wearing them down.  Now they condition for 80 plays a game.  He's got to find new wrinkles that take advantage of other weaknesses and don't take so long to develop that the 5 star DE is on our QB before he can make anything happen.

That's why I think he needs an OC with a different background, so he can develop the next hybrid offense that people have to figure out how to defend and be successful without having the best QB and running back on the field for every game.

Great post.

[jtm0003 1]

In the back of my mind at the end of the BCSNC game in 2013 (Gus' first year), I wondered if getting to that game would be the worst thing that happened, to oversell what Gus has to Auburn fans and make him very comfortable. Think about it...the collapse in the UGA game needing a miracle play (when we should have put the boot on the leghumpers' throats and blown them out) and the Bama game coming down to another miracle play. Without those (or even just losing the Iron Bowl), we would have not played in the SEC title game and looking at maybe a major bowl instead of the BCS title game.

Considering the heartbreak of losing those two games that way, and seeing Bama play and probably win the NC game vs AU losing NC game because of crazy QB play from Jameis Winston with our defense giving it to them...that would hurt. A LOT.

Would Gus be fired now if that was how 2013 played out? I would think so, or the seat would be A LOT warmer.

[weagl1 1,781]

We have Bammer, LSU and UGA on our schedule every year.  We seem to play Clemson a lot.  Does anyone think we are simply going to line up, physically whip, and run the ball down those teams throats.  It ain't happening.  We must have a balanced attack which means we have to be able to both run and throw the ball.   I just don't understand why our staff would go out a recruit what is arguably the best WR class we have ever had, and arguably the best one in the nation, then leave those guys sitting on the bench.  Gus must find a way to develop QB's, open up the offense and get the play makers on the field.  I don't see how he can do that sticking with what we have.  If he and Lashlee were capable of developing a QB and implementing a passing attack they would have already done it.  

[C'viewTiger 242]

Anyone can look at my posts since the Clemson game and see if am NO Gus fan but the minute you start dictating how a coach should do his job you might as well fire him. He gets paid extremely good to coach this team. If he can't do it then straight up fire him but you don't pay someone to do something and then tell him how to do the job. IMO this will make it extremely difficult to get a quality replacement for fear of meddling.   As bad as I despise Saban, I do admire him for not allowing anyone tell him how to run his team.

[aubaseball 2,583]

Couldn't agree more with AU04ever.  Let's let Gus play this thing out by himself.   If he can't see that changes in play calling aren't warranted and wants to stick with lashlee, he will lose 4 next year and hopefully be fired.   

[lionheartkc 6,150]

11 hours ago, aubaseball said:

Couldn't agree more with AU04ever.  Let's let Gus play this thing out by himself.   If he can't see that changes in play calling aren't warranted and wants to stick with lashlee, he will lose 4 next year and hopefully be fired.   

Unless we land a rock star QB... then we could have a great year(s) and pull a Dan Mullins when said QB leaves, unless Gus realizes that he needs to evolve.  

[C'viewTiger 242]

1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

Unless we land a rock star QB... then we could have a great year(s) and pull a Dan Mullins when said QB leaves, unless Gus realizes that he needs to evolve.  

A lot of people have accused CRL of being a 'yes man'.  If we tell Gus he has to evolve or fired, is this not the same thing as turning Gus in to a 'yes man'.  If you put a number of 'Ws' as a stipulation of Gus maintaining his job, a rock star QB can save him regardless of the scheme.  The expectations should have been laid when Gus was hired.  If they weren't they should have been in his latest Contract Extension.  That is what AU needs to hold Gus accountable to. if Gus is not performing up to expectations, he needs to go without levying ultimatums.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

18 minutes ago, AU04ever said:

A lot of people have accused CRL of being a 'yes man'.  If we tell Gus he has to evolve or fired, is this not the same thing as turning Gus in to a 'yes man'.  If you put a number of 'Ws' as a stipulation of Gus maintaining his job, a rock star QB can save him regardless of the scheme.  The expectations should have been laid when Gus was hired.  If they weren't they should have been in his latest Contract Extension.  That is what AU needs to hold Gus accountable to. if Gus is not performing up to expectations, he needs to go without levying ultimatums.

I kind of follow what you are saying... No, telling him he has to evolve is not making him a "yes man".  Telling him he has to run a specific scheme, recruit specific players, etc would be making him a "yes man".  Pointing out that the rest of the college football world is adapting and he needs to adapt or die is just being honest with him. 

I don't think Rhett is a "yes man" either. I don't even think he is a bad OC. What I think it that he and Gus being together isn't doing any good for either because it keeps them in a silo of their own creation.  All Rhett has really known is Gus, so he has had no opportunity to learn from others.  All Gus has really known is Rhett, so he has also had limited opportunity to learn from others (Hand potentially being an exception).

The best way to grow is to surround yourself with people who have different ideas, and be open to those ideas. Telling a coach that he needs to do that is nothing more than doing what's best for the team. Hopefully, seeing what Steele did with our D will open Gus up to that on the O.

The problem with using wins as the only measurement of success is that you aren't taking into account that a great player (like Stidham has the potential to be) can cover up for a lot of issues, and when that player leaves, you crash and burn (see Dan Mullen). At the same time, laying down some arbitrary level of performance expectation and then firing someone without outlining the points of failure that have been identified and giving them the opportunity to correct them (an ultimatum, if you must) is just bad management.

[doc4aday 1,887]

A bit like Martin Luther's decree nailed on the door of his nearby church back in the 1400s.  Does anyone believe that any coach or player reads our posts on this site?

[lionheartkc 6,150]

26 minutes ago, doc4aday said:

A bit like Martin Luther's decree nailed on the door of his nearby church back in the 1400s.  Does anyone believe that any coach or player reads our posts on this site?

Players read it... that is a known fact.  I doubt the coaches do.... maybe Hand since he's a tech head.