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Men vs USC Upstate Post Game


FoundationEagle

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6 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

TJ Lang shot 40% last season. Brown shot 37% as a freshman. Both of them are capable of shooting 40+%.  Currently, Herron is shooting 43%, Purifoy 37%, Johnson at 37%, Harper at 32% with Brown at 26% and Lang at 29%. It isn't the freshman that are hurting our percentages. If Brown and Lang come on, we can absolutely shoot close to 40%, not unrealistic at all. 

Not going to argue with anybody about basketball, it's not reasonable you post those stats against the gimme teams and go off of it if you want but like I said we don't have any scorers on the post or 3 point line that demand doubles and we don't pass well as a team, nobody is averaging over 5 assist. The only players that MAY be able to create their own shot is purifioy and herron and Harper. Only reason herron is over 40 is because he don't shoot that many 3's. He attacks the basket. And you just the stats of a bunch of players who didn't shoot 40 but you just feel like they can because you think they can....

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3 hours ago, AU64 said:

Why?   ....we have some serious young talent and there should be high goals for them.   Granted those are not gospel numbers but how can we play winning basketball unless we are shooting and scoring with upper level teams as Deux pointed out.   I get the feeling that some folks just like to argue and look for any item to nit-pick rather than accept that we can't win against SEC competition unless we can shoot competitively and that means being in the range noted for all three shooting categories. 

Last season we were among the worst shooting teams in all three categories FT, FG 3PT .  Most of those players are gone now but based on their HS stats, this is a team that has the potential to be more competitive with shooting....and hopefully winning more games....this year.

 

PS..check the full season stats from last year to see what we are talking about  http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/team/_/stat/3-points/group/23

Some people do like to argue.....two completely different personas when talking about coaches and players you like as opposed to the ones you don't

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8 hours ago, cole256 said:

Some people do like to argue.....two completely different personas when talking about coaches and players you like as opposed to the ones you don't

I understand your view....but my original comment dealt with our shooting woes and I just noted what was needed to be a winning team....some numbers generally supported by stats.  I never mentioned the coaching though I do notice that folks are pretty quick to hold Gus accountable for every shortcoming on the football field and BP mostly gets a pass because the team is young or whatever.  That's fine....but in the end...the players have to perform at the same or higher level than the competition. People can defend the coach, but they can't ignore certain facts.

If the team does not shoot better than last year, it's likely we will again be in the bottom half of the SEC.   Some may disagree, but you can't just win with defense as we have seen in football.     While some early comments pre-season questioned our defense in BB, in the end, it has been the poor offense that has made some games closer than we like. 

So back to my earlier point....we need to be shooting about 40% from 3PT, 50% other FG and 70+ percent from FT....or we will be right where we were last year...lower half of the SEC and home for March Madness.  That's not being "unreasonable"....and it's not blaming anyone for anything....it's just a fact and I bet BP is fully aware of that too.   JMO.

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Well I told everybody how I felt this year was going to go but that shooting 40% from 3 thing.....that's not a simple stat at all. But yes we need to do all of that, but a young team still missing a post presence doing that. I don't see it. 

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Considering no SEC team has actually shot 40% from 3-point range since the 2006-2007 season, it's starting to be absurd that this number keeps getting thrown around like it means anything. 

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1 hour ago, AuburnArch13 said:

Considering no SEC team has actually shot 40% from 3-point range since the 2006-2007 season, it's starting to be absurd that this number keeps getting thrown around like it means anything. 

OK...arky shot 39.7 and Vandy almost 39.....so that would be fine.....I was using round numbers for convenience but pick something less than 40 but good enough that the team is considered dangerous.   We've play probably the easiest part of the schedule so far....is it going to get better?   I sure hope so....meanwhile, set low goals...get poor results.

Again just saying...if we want to be in the upper tier of the SEC we need to be able to shoot and score like the best teams....pick your own goals....my were an opinion,...if you think we can make post season doing less.....that's your opinion and we will know more in April....JMO

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13 hours ago, AuburnArch13 said:

I've looked at the full season stats from last year. In fact, I linked to them in my post that you quoted. Last year, no team in the SEC shot 40% from 3, and only two shot better than 38%. Seems unlikely that we'll do better than that this year, or that we'd need to in order to be successful. 

The SEC put 3 teams in the NCAA tourney last year. A&M was the worst shooting team from the SEC who got in at 35% from 3 and 50% from 2, Vandy shot 38.2% from 3 and 50% from 2, Kentucky shot 37% from 3 and 52% from 2. So it seems unlikely that a team will make the NCAA tourney from the SEC without shooting close to those numbers. I'm not sure why this is such a point of debate. As you said 40 teams shot 38 % or better from the season. How many at large bids are there to the NCAA? If we want to be in position to get there, we need to shoot near the percentages, in my opinion. 

 

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11 hours ago, cole256 said:

Not going to argue with anybody about basketball, it's not reasonable you post those stats against the gimme teams and go off of it if you want but like I said we don't have any scorers on the post or 3 point line that demand doubles and we don't pass well as a team, nobody is averaging over 5 assist. The only players that MAY be able to create their own shot is purifioy and herron and Harper. Only reason herron is over 40 is because he don't shoot that many 3's. He attacks the basket. And you just the stats of a bunch of players who didn't shoot 40 but you just feel like they can because you think they can....

First, that's not how statistic work. Few attempts has no correlation to a high percentage, ask Dunans about it. Your point about level of competition is fair, but we have a top 50 SOS right now, so we haven't exactly been playing cupcakes.  

Second, not because I just think they can, but because I expect Brown to improve from his freshman campaign, and Lang to shoot what he did last year or better, not a wish and a prayer. Our freshman are shooting good numbers, our returners (who have shot good number over the course of an entire season) are not. This isn't wild speculation that we could shoot 40% or close to it as a team. I agree to do so, we need better ball movement and some inside out game, but that can happen with a small line up. 

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1 hour ago, JwgreDeux said:

The SEC put 3 teams in the NCAA tourney last year. A&M was the worst shooting team from the SEC who got in at 35% from 3 and 50% from 2, Vandy shot 38.2% from 3 and 50% from 2, Kentucky shot 37% from 3 and 52% from 2. So it seems unlikely that a team will make the NCAA tourney from the SEC without shooting close to those numbers. I'm not sure why this is such a point of debate. As you said 40 teams shot 38 % or better from the season. How many at large bids are there to the NCAA? If we want to be in position to get there, we need to shoot near the percentages, in my opinion. 

 

I've said in previous comments that I think we should be hoping to shoot in the 36-37% range to be successful this season. That is firmly in the range of last year's tourny teams that you listed. It may very well be true that for this team to make the tournament, we need to shoot around 38%, but I hope not because I don't believe we'll shoot that well. Contrary to how it may appear, shooting 36-37% vs 40% for the season are two very different result in terms of difficulty and predictive success. Conflating the two when outlining our goal for the year is setting an unnecessarily unachievable goal for our players. Given how one of the posters in this debate seems to look for any reason to claim that our team is underperforming, I think that it is prudent to reign in unrealistic expectations when we see them. 

As for Cole's comment on Heron's percentage having something to do with few attempts, he is very likely correct. While statistically speaking, shooting fewer shots doesn't give you a better percentage (all shots being equal), it does mean his current percentage is a less reliable indicator of his future shooting percentage than if he had taken more shots. The same thing could be said for Brown's low current shooting percentage. It will likely go up as he takes more shots and the statistics regress to the mean. A corrolary to this phenomenon would be how there are are always a few baseball players still hitting above .400 after the first month of the season, bit none of them ever finishes there at the end of the season. Right now, we don't really know what Heron's "true percentage" from 3 will be, but we just don't have enough data yet to infer that it will be the same as what he is currently shooting. 

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On 11/29/2016 at 9:20 PM, aufan57 said:

3 point shooting was bad, only 7-33. 

Also, ft 13-22, need to get closer to 70%

Only 7 turnovers. Good job 

And 90 points- that shows you limiting turnovers might be more important than simply making shots.

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Like i said I won't argue I'll just say we'll see, but let's not get mad at me when we do see....right now a guy at either ole miss or vandy is shooting 66% from three....how many 66% three point shooters have you ever seen? Right now statistically a guy getting very hot in one game can really make your percentage high. 

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And it's not about just having guys that are able to shoot that percentage, I'm sure they are more than capable but as far as getting shots in the flow of the game.....that's a different story. If a defense can lock in on our guys without doubling or switching...that's a problem. If I didn't have to worry about helping and switching and just play a guy head up I guarantee I could take your best shooter out of the game and give him his worse night.

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I think the 40% target open to discussion...not essential of course but if a team shoots a lot less....33%, for example and shoots a high number of 3 point shots, then 2/3rds of the shots get nothing and have lower chance for an offensive rebound....AND... the points must come from somewhere else....either FTs or 2 point shots and I read not long ago that statistically speaking, the shot within the circle but not right at the basket is the worst shot a player can take....shooting percentage is not much (if any) better than the 3 point effort and only get 2 for a successful shot.

There are lots of ways for a team to accumulate it's points but when at team excels in none of the shooting categories, it is probably in for a long season.  And as noted, if a team is dependent on one scorer it is possible to tone him down but generally that frees up someone else.    We seem to have balance and right now I can't see any team deciding to go all out to stop an particular player.   I do agree with the observations that early season stats are not necessarily indicative but those players who were here last year have some kind of track record to judge by and it is likely that their will do as well or better this season. For the new guys...it's wait and see..  

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Enjoying the conversation with you fellas. I Kind of view the 50 from two, 40 from three, 70 from the charity stripe, like Stat Tigers grading scale over the football forum. If we pass more than we fail we got a really good chance to win,  and vice versa . 

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21 hours ago, AU64 said:

I think the 40% target open to discussion...not essential of course but if a team shoots a lot less....33%, for example and shoots a high number of 3 point shots, then 2/3rds of the shots get nothing and have lower chance for an offensive rebound....AND... the points must come from somewhere else....either FTs or 2 point shots and I read not long ago that statistically speaking, the shot within the circle but not right at the basket is the worst shot a player can take....shooting percentage is not much (if any) better than the 3 point effort and only get 2 for a successful shot.

There are lots of ways for a team to accumulate it's points but when at team excels in none of the shooting categories, it is probably in for a long season.  And as noted, if a team is dependent on one scorer it is possible to tone him down but generally that frees up someone else.    We seem to have balance and right now I can't see any team deciding to go all out to stop an particular player.   I do agree with the observations that early season stats are not necessarily indicative but those players who were here last year have some kind of track record to judge by and it is likely that their will do as well or better this season. For the new guys...it's wait and see..  

The guys with the track record are doing the worst right now because as I stated before the season there is a new dynamic with guys who weren't playing last year are the best players. Lang and Brown aren't players who create their own shots, now they are playing with new guys who are finishers. Herron and purifoy aren't slashing and kicking it back out for open 3's. They are driving looking for contact and scoring. 

Their play is more dependent on other players so it's not a given they will do just as good or better. They will go probably as Harper goes. F  Also like I said we'll probably get better as the season go on and we have a good margin to get better. 

But also like I said, I think expectations are way too high this year, need some size

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6 minutes ago, cole256 said:

The guys with the track record are doing the worst right now because as I stated before the season there is a new dynamic with guys who weren't playing last year are the best players. Lang and Brown aren't players who create their own shots, now they are playing with new guys who are finishers. Herron and purifoy aren't slashing and kicking it back out for open 3's. They are driving looking for contact and scoring. 

Their play is more dependent on other players so it's not a given they will do just as good or better. They will go probably as Harper goes. F  Also like I said we'll probably get better as the season go on and we have a good margin to get better. 

But also like I said, I think expectations are way too high this year, need some size

Expectations versus aspirations.....I'm with the latter.....learned not have too many expectations the last few years in any AU sport...

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2 hours ago, AU64 said:

Expectations versus aspirations.....I'm with the latter.....learned not have too many expectations the last few years in any AU sport...

Except Softball...............................just :poke:64........I know what you mean

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1 minute ago, augolf1716 said:

Except Softball...............................just :poke:64........I know what you mean

Actually several sports are doing well...but the Big 3 have been rife with disappointment the past few years ......with an occasional burst of light.....

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