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End of the first quarter, where we stand


JwgreDeux

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Well we are basically 25% through the regular basketball season, so let's take a look at where this team stands. Before we get into any of the numbers, a few observations. Our freshman have not disappointed, they have carried this team. Chemistry is still an issue, kind of a two steps forward one step back thing. Rebounding has been an issue as expected, and defense has digressed to a point of concern after a good start to the season. However, this group is 6-1 with a few quality wins, and no bad losses. 

In my opinion, this group has exceeded expectations in the win/loss column while failed to meet expectations in the areas of defense and shooting %. I'm not going to give out grades or anything of that sort, but we are currently allowing 72+ points per game (117th), and that is too many. Our shooting percentages are 43 from the floor, 32 from three, and 65 from the free throw line. Those are all about 5 percentage points too low. So, something has to give if we want to keep exceeding expectations in the win/loss column. Either we have to start defending much better, start shooting much better, or make some improvement in both areas adding up to a big overall improvement.

Now the good news. We have all of our goals in front of us. We have positioned ourselves for a run at a postseason tournament, and can still realistically discuss the possibility of making the big dance. Over the course of the season we have improved our RPI to 21 (as high as 19 and as low as 27 depending on who's RPI you follow), and have even made the radar of some poll voters as being on the cusp of the top 25 AP Poll. The predictive metrics out there still aren't in love with us, having us in the 70's range. In comparison to other SEC teams we are generally in the 4-7 range of all of the above. Currently, the SEC is playing pretty well, with most predictors forecasting 4 or 5 teams making the tournament. If we have any chance of making the ncaa, we need the SEC to play well out of conference and get a minimum of 5 bids (Florida could get a big one tonight for the conference). While the predicitve metrics out there don't love us, we are steadily moving up their rankings. Currently, most of them forecast us to get 20-17 wins and 11-14 losses, and a 20% or so chance of making the ncaa tourney.

Based off the performance of this team so far, and what games I have seen of our future opponents, we will go as far as our defense carries us. We may win one or two by outscoring someone or shooting well from three-point-land, but to get 20 wins (I think we will need to win 21 games to get in the tourney), it will be the defense that gets us there. We will learn a few more hard lessons, of the Purdue variety.

Here is how we can make the ncaa tourney: We have 11 home games remaining with Florida being the most difficult. So assuming we drop one to Florida and only one other, that would be 9 home wins without a bad loss getting us to 15 wins. Assuming that happens we would need to win 5+ road/neutral games. Currently, we should be favored to beat Boston College and Uconn away from home, leaving 3+ conference games we would need on the road. Our best chances to get those come against Mizzou, LSU, Alabama and Georgia. Win those games and we may find ourselves on the right side of the bubble. Our margin for error is razor thin, lose one of these and we have to beat somebody we shouldn't to get back in it. None of the games listed should be considered a lock. We are too inconsistent at this point to be able to make such assumptions. 

At the end of the first quarter, I think we have to be happy where we are at. A young team learning how to play without losing any games we should have won, and maybe stealing one we shouldn't have. Looking at the second quarter, we play 4 of the next 8 away from home, and the competition increases. We have to win 5 of them, 6 or more would keep on track for a tourney birth. 

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1 hour ago, JwgreDeux said:

Well we are basically 25% through the regular basketball season, so let's take a look at where this team stands. Before we get into any of the numbers, a few observations. Our freshman have not disappointed, they have carried this team. Chemistry is still an issue, kind of a two steps forward one step back thing. Rebounding has been an issue as expected, and defense has digressed to a point of concern after a good start to the season. However, this group is 6-1 with a few quality wins, and no bad losses. 

In my opinion, this group has exceeded expectations in the win/loss column while failed to meet expectations in the areas of defense and shooting %. I'm not going to give out grades or anything of that sort, but we are currently allowing 72+ points per game (117th), and that is too many. Our shooting percentages are 43 from the floor, 32 from three, and 65 from the free throw line. Those are all about 5 percentage points too low. So, something has to give if we want to keep exceeding expectations in the win/loss column. Either we have to start defending much better, start shooting much better, or make some improvement in both areas adding up to a big overall improvement.
Now the good news. We have all of our goals in front of us. We have positioned ourselves for a run at a postseason tournament, and can still realistically discuss the possibility of making the big dance. Over the course of the season we have improved our RPI to 21 (as high as 19 and as low as 27 depending on who's RPI you follow), and have even made the radar of some poll voters as being on the cusp of the top 25 AP Poll. The predictive metrics out there still aren't in love with us, having us in the 70's range. In comparison to other SEC teams we are generally in the 4-7 range of all of the above. Currently, the SEC is playing pretty well, with most predictors forecasting 4 or 5 teams making the tournament. If we have any chance of making the ncaa, we need the SEC to play well out of conference and get a minimum of 5 bids (Florida could get a big one tonight for the conference). While the predicitve metrics out there don't love us, we are steadily moving up their rankings. Currently, most of them forecast us to get 20-17 wins and 11-14 losses, and a 20% or so chance of making the ncaa tourney.  

 

Based off the performance of this team so far, and what games I have seen of our future opponents, we will go as far as our defense carries us. We may win one or two by outscoring someone or shooting well from three-point-land, but to get 20 wins (I think we will need to win 21 games to get in the tourney), it will be the defense that gets us there. We will learn a few more hard lessons, of the Purdue variety.

Here is how we can make the ncaa tourney: We have 11 home games remaining with Florida being the most difficult. So assuming we drop one to Florida and only one other, that would be 9 home wins without a bad loss getting us to 15 wins. Assuming that happens we would need to win 5+ road/neutral games. Currently, we should be favored to beat Boston College and Uconn away from home, leaving 3+ conference games we would need on the road. Our best chances to get those come against Mizzou, LSU, Alabama and Georgia. Win those games and we may find ourselves on the right side of the bubble. Our margin for error is razor thin, lose one of these and we have to beat somebody we shouldn't to get back in it. None of the games listed should be considered a lock. We are too inconsistent at this point to be able to make such assumptions. 

At the end of the first quarter, I think we have to be happy where we are at. A young team learning how to play without losing any games we should have won, and maybe stealing one we shouldn't have. Looking at the second quarter, we play 4 of the next 8 away from home, and the competition increases. We have to win 5 of them, 6 or more would keep on track for a tourney birth. 

I am out of likes, but I appreciate your analysis of the team & the games we have played.

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Appreciate your enthusiasm that is for sure, but 9 and 2 for remaining home games which are mostly SEC? I know that UCONN and BC aren't having the years they normally do, but to go on the road and beat both of them. I don't know. Sounds like a tall order.  I hope so though.

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This team has done exactly as I expected so far.  I'm waiting on to see how SEC scheme for us on defense and then I'll be able to show how size effects the team on offense and defense and certain players as well.

For example I've seen a couple of people mention Lang having a size advantage, but the way Lang plays and his skill set he really doesn't have a size advantage at all and so on and so forth

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23 hours ago, cole256 said:

This team has done exactly as I expected so far.  I'm waiting on to see how SEC scheme for us on defense and then I'll be able to show how size effects the team on offense and defense and certain players as well.

For example I've seen a couple of people mention Lang having a size advantage, but the way Lang plays and his skill set he really doesn't have a size advantage at all and so on and so forth

I suspect you will see teams pressure the ball a bit more and force our guys to drive to the basket more. We have not shown a great ability to finish drives or rebound above average on the offensive end. Combine that with our poor free throw shooting, and I would certainly attempt to make us put the ball on the floor more. 

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Yes I have a thought, if nothing else right now a straight man to man defense would hurt us the most but I want to see and not just speak in hypotheticals. 

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1 hour ago, JwgreDeux said:

I suspect you will see teams pressure the ball a bit more and force our guys to drive to the basket more. We have not shown a great ability to finish drives or rebound above average on the offensive end. Combine that with our poor free throw shooting, and I would certainly attempt to make us put the ball on the floor more. 

That's much more difficult to do with the new rules. AU has the athletes to drive the ball with pressure, they just have to hit their FTs. 

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17 hours ago, jared52 said:

That's much more difficult to do with the new rules. AU has the athletes to drive the ball with pressure, they just have to hit their FTs. 

While the freedom of movement emphasis, make penetration easier, it also allows the post defender to go straight up for the block without committing a foul even if there is body contact initiated by the offensive player. During the first half of the UAB game, Heron drove four times, missing three contested layups and only drawing one foul. I've watched a number of other teams' games this season and have seen the same at the rim. 

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On 12/6/2016 at 2:55 PM, 80Tiger said:

Appreciate your enthusiasm that is for sure, but 9 and 2 for remaining home games which are mostly SEC? I know that UCONN and BC aren't having the years they normally do, but to go on the road and beat both of them. I don't know. Sounds like a tall order.  I hope so though.

I'm an Auburn fan, so I concede the possibility that I view things in our favor at times. However, in this case you are give the opposing teams credit due to name brand. Currently, we should be favored to win all of our remaining non-conference games, with the exception of Oklahoma. This isn't wishful thinking on my part, I'm just looking at the metrics that are out there. In fact Boston College will be the worst team we have played all season by a wide margin based on RPI. Thank goodness we are playing them away from home, as a sub 300 team does you no good to play them at home. 

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Don't know if you weren't including TCU since it is mid SEC slate but as of now, we won't be favored @TCU

They are ranked higher by a healthy margin in the following rankings

 

-KenPom

-Massey Composite

-Sagarin

 

While TCU did just lose big to @SMU, they have a number of other solid wins so far and Jamie Dixon has done a great job thus far 

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To add

 

Massey prediction has us win%

v* Boston College 72%

v* Oklahoma 17%

@ UCOnn 32%

@TCU 23%

 

 

To to add to the UCOnn game though, this should be less home court advantage/crowd being a game near Christmas with students on break during a down year

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6 hours ago, GenesChin said:

Don't know if you weren't including TCU since it is mid SEC slate but as of now, we won't be favored @TCU

They are ranked higher by a healthy margin in the following rankings

 

-KenPom

-Massey Composite

-Sagarin

 

While TCU did just lose big to @SMU, they have a number of other solid wins so far and Jamie Dixon has done a great job thus far 

I wasn't including TCU, I was talking about pre-SEC play. 

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6 hours ago, GenesChin said:

To add

 

Massey prediction has us win%

v* Boston College 72%

v* Oklahoma 17%

@ UCOnn 32%

@TCU 23%

 

 

To to add to the UCOnn game though, this should be less home court advantage/crowd being a game near Christmas with students on break during a down year

I'm projecting based off a number of metrics based on what the Vegas line would be if we played today. And we would be slight favorites over UConn. 

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12 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

I'm projecting based off a number of metrics based on what the Vegas line would be if we played today. And we would be slight favorites over UConn. 

All the Vegas line reflects is the betting public's perception of 2 teams. It's not a true metric in and of itself.

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Color me happy with how the first quarter of the season went. We won all the games we were supposed to and won a couple in TT and UAB that we probably weren't supposed to. I've been very happy and surprised by how well both of our brand new PGs have played. Going into the season I was really worried that we would see good players scattered around making impressive plays but that we wouldn't be able to win a lot due to being weak at the PG and bigs. Concerns about PG are gone and that appears to be a position of strength for us now. I've also seen improvements in the offensive game of Spencer. He has a ways to go of course to be considered a threat but he has shown flashes which gives me hope he'll be quite the player before he leaves AU. Love his enthusiasm. He has also done much better on fouls which has been huge for the team. Can't afford him going out early. Heron is starting to come along and show his star potential. He is an all around great player and will be fun to watch grow and get more comfortable with the team. I hope we get a couple years of watching him play. Purifoy and Dunans both haven't performed as I hoped before the season started. If those guys ever get going on a consistent basis we'll be a very challenging team to guard and deal with. I also hope Brown will stop forcing it so much. I think if he can be more patient and lets the shots find him instead of him trying to find his shots he'll regain some of that freshmen form. 

Defense has been a funny thing for this team so far, the first 3 games we played great D but since then it has been a struggle. I really hope our guys can tighten things up on that side of the ball. Being a team that plays great D could really raise the ceiling on what this team can achieve. 

So before the season started I stated we should expect a NIT berth and hope for NCAA. With how the team has played so far I find myself leaning more and more to thinking the NCAA bid is a reachable goal. If we can avoid injuries then this team should only get better as they get more use to playing together and Pearl is able to figure out the best combo of players to play in certain situations. So far we haven't shot the ball extremely well and we haven't played that great of defense. Yet we sit with only 1 loss on the season. That makes me think we'll be a pretty impressive team should we get things humming along!

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