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Auburn MBB: Weekly Update


WDE_OxPx_2010

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I recommend using the Warren Nolan RPI live link for RPI. It uses the same exact formula the NCAA committee uses in their selection process and updates within 30 minutes of a game ending. ESPN's RPI does not use the NCAA selection committee formula. We are 52 in actual RPI right now per NCAA.com and that's where Warren Nolan has us as well. NCAA.com usually updates RPI weekly.

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  • ellitor pinned and featured this topic
2 hours ago, ellitor said:

I recommend using the Warren Nolan RPI live link for RPI. It uses the same exact formula the NCAA committee uses in their selection process and updates within 30 minutes of a game ending. ESPN's RPI does not use the NCAA selection committee formula. We are 52 in actual RPI right now per NCAA.com and that's where Warren Nolan has us as well. NCAA.com usually updates RPI weekly.

Updated, much appreciated

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Right now, the Warren Nolan RPI link projects us at finishing 21-10 overall (11-7 SEC) with an overall RPI of 86. I'm not positive on what RPI would have to be to cement a tournament bid, but a 21 win season with 11 SEC wins seems like it means we would be dancing. We'd certainly like RPI to be higher than that, but with an SEC tournament win or two to lock up a 22 or 23 win season in the SEC, I'd say we'd be in fairly comfortably.

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5 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Right now, the Warren Nolan RPI link projects us at finishing 21-10 overall (11-7 SEC) with an overall RPI of 86. I'm not positive on what RPI would have to be to cement a tournament bid, but a 21 win season with 11 SEC wins seems like it means we would be dancing. We'd certainly like RPI to be higher than that, but with an SEC tournament win or two to lock up a 22 or 23 win season in the SEC, I'd say we'd be in fairly comfortably.

Just depends on who we win and loss to. The SEC is 5th in Conference RPI so 11-7 without upsetting TCU on the road may not be enough. There were 3 SEC teams at 11-7 last year but only 1 made the NCAA tourney, Vandy. If we get to 12-6 and get an SEC tourney win we should be in IMO. Either way we should be in the NIT at bare minimum and that's still a good step in the right direction given the past 13 years.

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Okay, the RPI has us finishing 11-7 in the SEC, but did they have us 10-2 in the preseason?  Probably not.  So my hope is that we are better than 11-7 in conference play and it begins Thursday night by beating the dawgs!

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1 minute ago, GBAU83 said:

Okay, the RPI has us finishing 11-7 in the SEC, but did they have us 10-2 in the preseason?  Probably not.  So my hope is that we are better than 11-7 in conference play and it begins Thursday night by beating the dawgs!

FWIW I have us starting 9-2 in conference play but finishing 11-7. Those back 7 games are tough.

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The SEC seems to be getting better coaches and better players every year but it has yet to translate into a better reputation and better OOC records. You guys think it is a matter of time before those OOC wins start coming or is there something else missing? At least for once AU is doing our part to help out the SEC perception. 

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39 minutes ago, gravejd said:

The SEC seems to be getting better coaches and better players every year but it has yet to translate into a better reputation and better OOC records. You guys think it is a matter of time before those OOC wins start coming or is there something else missing? At least for once AU is doing our part to help out the SEC perception. 

Matter of time.

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14 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Right now, the Warren Nolan RPI link projects us at finishing 21-10 overall (11-7 SEC) with an overall RPI of 86. I'm not positive on what RPI would have to be to cement a tournament bid, but a 21 win season with 11 SEC wins seems like it means we would be dancing. We'd certainly like RPI to be higher than that, but with an SEC tournament win or two to lock up a 22 or 23 win season in the SEC, I'd say we'd be in fairly comfortably.

Last year the three SEC teams that had the 11-7 records had RPI's of 71, 73, and 95. Vandy made it due to their non-conference SOS being 32, while SC's and LSU's were 200+. Florida had a decent resume at 21-15 with an RPI of 45, but were 9-9 in the league and lost 4 of their last 5. Last year the SEC finished 6th in conference RPI and would have had 4 bids if not for terribly weak non-conference schedules. Hopefully we get more bids this year. 

I think we need 21+ wiins, 11+ SEC wins, and an RPI in the 50's. The RPI include factors we can't control, and will undoubtedly provide plenty of cause for discussion. We need BC to win some games and get out of the 200s, and other opponents to play well in their conferences. The addition of Wiley at the break makes us a different team than the one that got blown out by Purdue and lost to BC, that will help us if we are in the bubble discussion. 

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5 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Last year the three SEC teams that had the 11-7 records had RPI's of 71, 73, and 95. Vandy made it due to their non-conference SOS being 32, while SC's and LSU's were 200+. Florida had a decent resume at 21-15 with an RPI of 45, but were 9-9 in the league and lost 4 of their last 5. Last year the SEC finished 6th in conference RPI and would have had 4 bids if not for terribly weak non-conference schedules. Hopefully we get more bids this year. 

I think we need 21+ wiins, 11+ SEC wins, and an RPI in the 50's. The RPI include factors we can't control, and will undoubtedly provide plenty of cause for discussion. We need BC to win some games and get out of the 200s, and other opponents to play well in their conferences. The addition of Wiley at the break makes us a different team than the one that got blown out by Purdue and lost to BC, that will help us if we are in the bubble discussion. 

Heck. We would have beat BC if Dunans was not sick and missed the game.

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  • 8 months later...
7 minutes ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

 

Screenshot_20171217-163520.png

Can this SOS end up hurting us? Usually teams with tough schedules can get in with 19-20 wins. 

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51 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Can this SOS end up hurting us? Usually teams with tough schedules can get in with 19-20 wins. 

Could be...has done it in the past if I recall.    But, it seems that our recent coaches have mostly traded early season wins in place of SOS....maybe as a way of helping bring along young and/ or inexperienced teams and giving them a taste of success.. 

JMO but there are more than enough good RPIs among our SEC opponents to make us attractive for post season tournament play if we can win enough conference games.      The list I saw yesterday was pretty daunting and we were near the bottom in the way of expectations.....again. Guess we are back to the annual discussion about whether winning half of our conference games would be enough to get us into the NCAA tourney.

So which are the winnable games on our SEC schedule this year?

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8 minutes ago, AU64 said:

JMO but there are more than enough good RPIs among our SEC opponents to make us attractive for post season tournament play if we can win enough conference games.

Hypothetically though, the rest of the SEC will be playing the same tough conference schedule as we are, so if we all are hovering around 19-20 wins, they’ll be picked first with their better OOC SOS and probaby better RPI. Is that correct? I don’t know why it has to be a manufactured science to figure out who can get in and who won’t. 

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5 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Hypothetically though, the rest of the SEC will be playing the same tough conference schedule as we are, so if we all are hovering around 19-20 wins, they’ll be picked first with their better OOC SOS and probaby better RPI. Is that correct? I don’t know why it has to be a manufactured science to figure out who can get in and who won’t. 

Maybe.....guess we need some upset wins against higher rated SEC teams....but just browsing our schedule, seems to me that we have a very tough conference challenge....playing the better eastern div teams at their place for most games....and I'm thinking Missouri, Florida and Tennessee that are not home and home.    

Seems to me that we need to win more than half our home games....and pick up a couple unexpected wins on the road.     Still, as I see it now, the NIT would be a good accomplishment for this team unless Wiley comes back somewhere along the line. 

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