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JwgreDeux

Georgia - Preview

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JwgreDeux    242

Auburn (10-2) vs. Georgia (8-4)

  • Thursday, December 29, 2016
  • 6:00PM CT
  • TV: ESPNU
  • Auburn, Ala. (Auburn Arena)

After a solid performance in the non-conference schedule, Auburn enters SEC play at 10-2, one win shy of last year's total. We open conference play at home vs the Georgia Bulldogs Thursday night, and you have to expect the Tigers will have a home crowd waiting to erupt. 

Georgia comes in at 8-4, and ranked very close to Auburn in most metrics and the RPI. One interesting note about the projections of these teams, is that Georgia is consistently projected to finish one or two spots in front of Auburn in the SEC, fighting for that 5th spot in the league. I say that to say, this is a game that can start to change the perception of this team. There is no Vegas line out at the time of writing this, but I would expect Auburn to be a slight favorite (-1.5) or a pick-em game. Both teams need this win badly if they are going to achieve their goals, so I expect a close hard fought game, barring a Coastal Carolina like shooting night. 

Georgia isn't overly impressive in any way, no big wins, no overwhelming talent or size, and no awe-inspiring skill guys. What they do have is experience, chemistry, and solid talent at key positions, namely PG and PF.  Almost all of their statistical leaders are juniors, red-shirt juniors and seniors. Their two best players are their point guard Frazier and their 4 man Maten. Frazier is a senior who was second team all SEC last season and is averaging 15pts a game as well as leading the Bulldogs in assists. He is a scoring point guard who has the ball in his hands a lot, how we defend him will go a long way to determine the outcome of this game. Georgia does most of it's damage from inside the arch (we have attempted 100 more threes than they have), and Maten is their go to guy in that department, averaging nearly 20pts per game. Overall they only average 72pts per game to our 80, otherwise we are fairly evenly matched the other primary statistical areas. To me the way to look at this game is which team has the ability to play above their average. I think it is Auburn. Considering the adversity we have faced over the last few weeks, I believe we can play better basketball than we have seen so far. 

On to the match-ups, Georgia likes to run half court sets, with good ball movement and flex cutting. They incorporate a lot of high ball screens and frequently utilize the high-low post entry pass to Maten. Frazier is their best player at creating his own shots and also at creating for others. Due to his size (5'10'') and quickness, he can be a tough match-up if we switch those ball screens. Their primary post players have OK size at 6-8 240ish each, but only Maten is a real scoring threat. Wiley will be the biggest player on the court and should factor into the game with his defense. Harper and Johnson will have a tough task containing Frazier, but both have the tools necessary to frustrate him and force some bad shots, which he will take from time to time. They have been held to 60 or fewer points three times, and the most they have scored all season is 86. They are unlikely to present an offensive threat superior to what we have faced previously this season. We have the ability to limit what they do on offense, with heavy perimeter ball pressure, and good defensive rebounding effort. 

Offensively, we will face a mixture of match-up zone and man defenses. Both of their posts are capable shot blockers and they do a good job of team rebounding. Teams have had success getting out and running in transition against them, and I would look for us to try to push the pace. They play 10 guys double digit minutes, but they play Maten and Frazier 30 minutes + each. They hold teams to under 40% from the field, but allow 34% shooting from three, so this may be a good night for our shooters, especially playing at home. 

In the half court, I would expect us to pack in the defense, forcing them to shoot outside jump shots, possibly denying the entry. I would expect us to press at times, as Georgia will turn it over if you speed them up. On offense, I think we will try to push the pace and turn this into a shoot out. They have allowed 80 + points twice, losing both games.

We have the talent and skill advantage in this game, but they have the experience advantage by a large margin. They won't be afraid of a bunch of freshman and I expect them to emphasize an active match-up zone defense early. It will be tempting for our shooters to try and shoot them out of it, but we need to get the ball into Wiley and utilize the dribble drive to create kick out opportunities for in rhythm open three point shots. If shots aren't dropping points in the paint will be even more important. Brown is available, per Bruce Pearl, how many minutes will he get, and has he found his stroke? One match up to watch is Harper vs Fraizer, can Harper continue his good play when matched up with one of the better and most experienced points in the league. This also might be the game that  Purifoy returns to his scoring form, as all of Georgia's 4 men are not very quick, and will struggle to guard him on step outs. He might be the key for our offense to get going tonight, using that mismatch to our advantage. 

There are a lot of questions about this Auburn team right now, what are Brown and Spencer's roles, has the layoff allowed Wiley to improve conditioning and knowledge of the schemes, how will this team look with a full roster available, are there enough minutes to go around. I will be watching the developments in these areas closely leading up to the game. 

We got a win even though we allowed UConn to dictate pace, we can't make that mistake again here and expect to win. 

Go get'em. War Eagle. 

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Great write up!

How do you see Heron playing in this game? I definitely expect him to score his usual 15-20 pts.

If their guards are slow, I could see DP and Heron having big nights (potentially lots of FTs).

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JwgreDeux    242
1 hour ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

Great write up!

How do you see Heron playing in this game? I definitely expect him to score his usual 15-20 pts.

If their guards are slow, I could see DP and Heron having big nights (potentially lots of FTs).

No reason to think he won't make his usual contributions. We will need him to continue to keep rebounding well. Their guards aren't slow or nonathletic, but they are not extremely talented athletes. I think DP could have a big night, as the post players who could end up guarding him are not very athletic.  

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Timeslider 6    158

Good break down of the two teams, simple enough for people like me who only know enough to sound like i know what i am talking about. Thanks for the time and energy you put into the write ups. :beer2::bow:

If i could ask one question, what is your thoughts on the point spread and do you favor AU in this one?

Edited by Timeslider 6

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JwgreDeux    242

CBP said today in his presser: that they have had three practices before the Georgia game. Said Wiley only knew 10-15% as of his first start and now knows around 40% of schemes. Yesterday was his first live contact practice at Auburn, everything else had been walk throughs and film. He is still getting caught up on what we do, haven't begun adding anything new for him yet. Emphasized the need for Harper to play well, and the challenge Fraizer presents. He also praised Waddell and McLemore for their efforts recently with guys out. 

 

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JwgreDeux    242
4 minutes ago, Timeslider 6 said:

Good break down of the two teams, simple enough for people like me who only know enough to sound like i know what i am talking about. Thanks for the time and energy you put into the write ups. :beer2::bow:

If i could ask one question, what is your thoughts on the point spread and do you favor AU in this one?

from the OP: 

 

1 hour ago, JwgreDeux said:

There is no Vegas line out at the time of writing this, but I would expect Auburn to be a slight favorite (-1.5) or a pick-em game

Since my post the line has been posted as AU -2 ( I was pretty close).

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Did McLemore play in Spencer's spot during his suspension? If so, in your opinion, did McLemore completely steal Spencer's place in the lineup? As in, will McLemore be first option over Spencer? In his games played, McLemore seemed more effective on both ends.

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auburnphan    692

I think you will see more of Smith, Wiley, Spencer and McLemore at the 4 & 5 spots with Purifoy playing more 3 leaving Lang, Dunnans and Brown to spell Purifoy and Herron

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JwgreDeux    242
25 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

Did McLemore play in Spencer's spot during his suspension? If so, in your opinion, did McLemore completely steal Spencer's place in the lineup? As in, will McLemore be first option over Spencer? In his games played, McLemore seemed more effective on both ends.

 

11 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

I think you will see more of Smith, Wiley, Spencer and McLemore at the 4 & 5 spots with Purifoy playing more 3 leaving Lang, Dunnans and Brown to spell Purifoy and Herron

I think you will see less of Smith generally barring foul trouble for others. McLemore seems to play better at the 5 so I think we will continue to see him in that spot even with Spencer back. I would expect to see Spencer and McLemore play both the 4 and 5 spot. I personally like DP at the 4, and would like to see him stay there most of his minutes, but he has already been playing some minutes at the 3 since the addition of Wiley. More than anything, CBP is going to go with the groupings that gell, and Spencer and Brown clearly have to earn their way back, based off of Spencer's 3 minutes logged vs UConn. 

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auburnphan    692

The reason of putting Smith in there is because of foul trouble for 3 young big men is likely, especially with SEC officiating, maybe the worst of all power 5 conferences.  I think the Spencer/Brown Suspensions are mostly a PR thing at this point, remember Gus was catching hell for doing nothing for the same thing until he rotated 3 QB's in a game and most assumed the players were just getting it for him at that point and that is why he did nothing

Edited by auburnphan

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JwgreDeux    242
5 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

I think the Spencer/Brown Suspensions are mostly a PR thing at this point

Had we lost to Mercer and UConn, we wouldn't be talking about being a bubble team, and those suspensions wouldn't feel like a PR thing. I can emphasize enough how much of a disruption that was to the team. Losing our only returning starters and adding a 17 true freshman without a real practice before he plays in and later starts a game. The fact that we didn't lose a game when they were out is a borderline miracle. We found something good with putting McLemore at the 5, so I don't think he is going to give up those minutes. I don't think it's a PR thing, and I will be watching closely how many minutes Spencer and Brown get tomorrow, but judging off of Spencer's 3 vs UConn, they still have a ways to go to get back into the rotations. CBP made it clear on his presser today that they were not suspended during the last two games, they were available, just didn't play them. 

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45 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

 

I think you will see less of Smith generally barring foul trouble for others. McLemore seems to play better at the 5 so I think we will continue to see him in that spot even with Spencer back. I would expect to see Spencer and McLemore play both the 4 and 5 spot. I personally like DP at the 4, and would like to see him stay there most of his minutes, but he has already been playing some minutes at the 3 since the addition of Wiley. More than anything, CBP is going to go with the groupings that gell, and Spencer and Brown clearly have to earn their way back, based off of Spencer's 3 minutes logged vs UConn. 

I didn't watch any of the game as I had to listen to it on the radio while driving. But the time Horace did play sounded pretty rough. He committed a turnover almost immediately, and also fouled which I believe gave them two FT's.

I don't think it's as much of a PR thing as it is intended to send a message to the other players. Bruce is making an example out of these first two.

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auburnphan    692

I agree with that, but Bruce also has to deal with his showcause penalty past, even though I think he got hosed on it.  He is teaching them a lesson and the team and is clearly using this as a teaching moment.  As Cole said I think Brown's minutes were/are on decline regardless of getting caught with weed.

4 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Had we lost to Mercer and UConn, we wouldn't be talking about being a bubble team, and those suspensions wouldn't feel like a PR thing. I can emphasize enough how much of a disruption that was to the team. Losing our only returning starters and adding a 17 true freshman without a real practice before he plays in and later starts a game. The fact that we didn't lose a game when they were out is a borderline miracle. We found something good with putting McLemore at the 5, so I don't think he is going to give up those minutes. I don't think it's a PR thing, and I will be watching closely how many minutes Spencer and Brown get tomorrow, but judging off of Spencer's 3 vs UConn, they still have a ways to go to get back into the rotations. CBP made it clear on his presser today that they were not suspended during the last two games, they were available, just didn't play them. 

 

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JwgreDeux    242
8 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

I agree with that, but Bruce also has to deal with his showcause penalty past, even though I think he got hosed on it.  He is teaching them a lesson and the team and is clearly using this as a teaching moment.  As Cole said I think Brown's minutes were/are on decline regardless of getting caught with weed.

 

Brown's minutes leading up to his suspension were 21 mins vs Upstate, 22 vs UAB, and 28 vs BC, not a downward trend. His production has been down so far this season, but Brown is/was a starter for a reason. He is also our best on ball defender, which doesn't show up on a stat sheet. If we are going to get to the tourney, he needs to come back playing well. With Wiley's addition, Brown's game should improve. 

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13 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

I didn't watch any of the game as I had to listen to it on the radio while driving. But the time Horace did play sounded pretty rough. He committed a turnover almost immediately, and also fouled which I believe gave them two FT's.

I don't think it's as much of a PR thing as it is intended to send a message to the other players. Bruce is making an example out of these first two.

Horace also got an attitude with another player and came very close to a technical foul. Coming in off of a suspension, 3 minutes in pushing for technicals is not very wise. 

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auburnphan    692
5 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Brown's minutes leading up to his suspension were 21 mins vs Upstate, 22 vs UAB, and 28 vs BC, not a downward trend. His production has been down so far this season, but Brown is/was a starter for a reason. He is also our best on ball defender, which doesn't show up on a stat sheet. If we are going to get to the tourney, he needs to come back playing well. With Wiley's addition, Brown's game should improve. 

With the addition of Wiley I think they will, but we will see.  And to be honest Dunnans didn't play against BC.  His season average is 21.4 minutes

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JwgreDeux    242
2 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

With the addition of Wiley I think they will, but we will see.  And to be honest Dunnans didn't play against BC.  His season average is 21.4 minutes

 :dunno:

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AU64    1,917

Appreciate the preview....game should give us a better picture of where we might fit in the SEC this season. Considering that this is the time of year when teams should be building up their W-L records, there are some pretty sad records out there already.

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cole256    1,529
2 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Brown's minutes leading up to his suspension were 21 mins vs Upstate, 22 vs UAB, and 28 vs BC, not a downward trend. His production has been down so far this season, but Brown is/was a starter for a reason. He is also our best on ball defender, which doesn't show up on a stat sheet. If we are going to get to the tourney, he needs to come back playing well. With Wiley's addition, Brown's game should improve. 

Have to disagree there. He isn't our best defender. He's not close to being our best defender. But we do need his offense. I see you now agree with what I said about Wiley impact to this team. I like that

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cole256    1,529
2 hours ago, FoundationEagle said:

Horace also got an attitude with another player and came very close to a technical foul. Coming in off of a suspension, 3 minutes in pushing for technicals is not very wise. 

I'm glad to see him getting tougher. He's a very upbeat type of guy but he needed to get more of an edge about himself. 

 

Edited by cole256
Didn't pay attention to who I was replying to

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JwgreDeux    242
2 minutes ago, cole256 said:

Have to disagree there. He isn't our best defender. He's not close to being our best defender. But we do need his offense. I see you now agree with what I said about Wiley impact to this team. I like that

I never disagreed in the ways Wiley could help. I simply said we were capable of shooting and rebounding better than we were before he arrived. 

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cole256    1,529
4 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

I never disagreed in the ways Wiley could help. I simply said we were capable of shooting and rebounding better than we were before he arrived. 

Don't know how you could measure that as far as the rebounding and shooting better, but I guess you can't argue with an opinion either. 

As far as when I said that about Wiley nobody agreed but now I see it's a common theme that many are saying. 

Nice write up btw

Edited by cole256

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augolf1716    3,055
6 minutes ago, cole256 said:

Don't know how you could measure that as far as the rebounding and shooting better, but I guess you can't argue with an opinion either. 

As far as when I said that about Wiley nobody agreed but now I see it's a common theme that many are saying. 

Nice write up btw

 I did guess you forgot

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cole256    1,529
13 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

 I did guess you forgot

Yeah I probably missed it. Saw Mark Sears score around 23 over Christmas break. He's just a freshman but he's the leader of muscle shoals team. He's going to be great. I also saw Mountain brook play and they are s TOUGH team. And Alabama class coming in next year is SUPER talented. I saw petty who plays for Jemison too.

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