AU Ranked #5

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

Well yes, if you compare yourself to Alabama, of course, you will be the underdog.  They are the #1 team. However, if you are considered a top 5 team, it is hard to play the underdog role. In fact, it is rather obtuse.

I guess it still depends on who determines which team is the underdog....often it starts in Las Vegas when they try determine which way the money will go. Don't know when they establish the point spreads but I'm guessing that despite our very early pre-season ranking, the betting line will open with AU as underdog in a number of games....probably based on who is the home team.

But in my view, its is good for the players to see that people beyond the AU fan base expect big things from them this year.

[DAG 33,977]

7 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I guess it still depends on who determines which team is the underdog....often it starts in Las Vegas when they try determine which way the money will go. Don't know when they establish the point spreads but I'm guessing that despite our very early pre-season ranking, the betting line will open with AU as underdog in a number of games....probably based on who is the home team.

But in my view, its is good for the players to see that people beyond the AU fan base expect big things from them this year.

 

I highly doubt that. Bama yes. Clemson, probably. Not many other games I can see us being the underdog. Yes, this includes LSU and UGA. They might give LSU the nudge since they are at home. Definitely, don't agree with your assessment.

[doc4aday 1,887]

9 hours ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

ESPN's First FPI ranking for 2017 came out today. AU is ranked #5!

(sorry no link.  The website goes directly to my app)

Too high?  Or just about right?  

Your thoughts?

I think that this is pretty much dead on accurate.

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

I highly doubt that. Bama yes. Clemson, probably. Not many other games I can see us being the underdog. Yes, this includes LSU and UGA. They might give LSU the nudge since they are at home. Definitely, don't agree with your assessment.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/01/09/college-football-super-early-top-25-teams-2017-season/96119570/

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/college-football-top-25-2017-18-alabama-clemson-usc-penn-state-ohio-state-florida-state-michigan/1ki5o9b7yw86y1ej8yrnswitsg

Don't know where the #5 came from but I just looked around a bit and found us ranked between 14 and 19...   I looked at ESPN and saw their power index which had us at #5 but if you read the article, they basically disavow the relationship between their FPI and actual rankings since that might depend on schedules and such....who woulda guessed that?   

Preseason FPI is designed to take the guesswork out of preseason ratings. It is an automated ranking intended to measure team strength going forward. It is not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) or who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff.

Just thinking that AU at #5 might be a stretch....and as for being an under dog, considering that our high ranking is not a consensus,  a number of people might have us as betting underdogs at Clemson, LSU and TexAM...not to mention UGA and bama which in my view qualifies as "number of games"...meaning more than one but fewer than half of them.  

Looks like maybe some folks misunderstood that ESPN listing and are hyping AU more than is warranted by the schedule we have...... JMO

[AURaptor 1,122]

11 hours ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

ESPN's First FPI ranking for 2017 came out today. AU is ranked #5!

(sorry no link.  The website goes directly to my app)

Too high?  Or just about right?  

Your thoughts?

ridiculous.  Yes, AU has some solid players returning, but hell, there's the schedule, the whole learning an new system by the QB, who'll START at QB ( that still has yet to be figured out - no small task w/this coaching staff ) ... wait until  after Spring.  

[DAG 33,977]

53 minutes ago, AU64 said:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/01/09/college-football-super-early-top-25-teams-2017-season/96119570/

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/college-football-top-25-2017-18-alabama-clemson-usc-penn-state-ohio-state-florida-state-michigan/1ki5o9b7yw86y1ej8yrnswitsg

Don't know where the #5 came from but I just looked around a bit and found us ranked between 14 and 19...   I looked at ESPN and saw their power index which had us at #5 but if you read the article, they basically disavow the relationship between their FPI and actual rankings since that might depend on schedules and such....who woulda guessed that?   

Preseason FPI is designed to take the guesswork out of preseason ratings. It is an automated ranking intended to measure team strength going forward. It is not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) or who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff.

Just thinking that AU at #5 might be a stretch....and as for being an under dog, considering that our high ranking is not a consensus,  a number of people might have us as betting underdogs at Clemson, LSU and TexAM...not to mention UGA and bama which in my view qualifies as "number of games"...meaning more than one but fewer than half of them.  

Looks like maybe some folks misunderstood that ESPN listing and are hyping AU more than is warranted by the schedule we have...... JMO

 

 

There is no way in hell, if we play like we are supposed to, that we will be underdogs to UGA @ Home or Texas A&M. In fact, I would not be surprised, if we are ranked ahead of those teams come preseason. You know what this team should have high expectations and hold themselves to such.  They have just as much talent as anyone in the nation safe for a couple of schools in the nation. This is where me and you will continuously disagree. Might as well leave it at that.

[2010primetime 2]

Why all the hate on someone else ranking. Imo that's respect. I'm glad they have us that high that way they don't have to come from the bottom. Take care of business in the month of September and let the chips fall in place. WDE CHAMPIONSHIP RUN!

[JFDTiger80 790]

19 hours ago, AUwent said:

Power index, guys. As in not factoring in schedule. For instance, if we had Georgia's cakewalk of a schedule, I would possibly predict an undefeated season.

Hard for us to complain about Georgia's cakewalk schedule when we can't beat them. 

[WeagleAU 594]

14 minutes ago, JFDTiger80 said:

Hard for us to complain about Georgia's cakewalk schedule when we can't beat them. 

Ouch, that hurts.  But so often the truth does.

[AU64 10,122]

9 hours ago, DAG said:

There is no way in hell, if we play like we are supposed to, that we will be underdogs to UGA @ Home or Texas A&M. In fact, I would not be surprised, if we are ranked ahead of those teams come preseason. You know what this team should have high expectations and hold themselves to such.  They have just as much talent as anyone in the nation safe for a couple of schools in the nation. This is where me and you will continuously disagree. Might as well leave it at that.

Absolutely agree with this...hope an AU team never takes the field not expecting to win.  

The point of my commentary was that the OP was either misleading or outright wrong.  AU is not pre-season ranked at #5 and not even close.   And if you check the actual rankings rather than the power index, anywhere from two to four of our opponents are ranked above us. As we've noted when looking at the PRI that started the discussion....who you play and where you play them has a lot to do with the outcome of a season and who might be considered the favorite in any game. 

Interesting too that I got raked over the coals last season by some people on this board when I said something to the effect that I did not care if Clemson was a 9 point favorite, I expected AU to win.  And I still feel that way for 2017.

[AuGrad2004 100]

19 hours ago, Win4AU said:

Clemson is in South Carolina so I guess a dig but not really

Didn't see the "in".  My bad

[keesler 5,924]

9 hours ago, DAG said:

There is no way in hell, if we play like we are supposed to, that we will be underdogs to UGA @ Home or Texas A&M. In fact, I would not be surprised, if we are ranked ahead of those teams come preseason. You know what this team should have high expectations and hold themselves to such.  They have just as much talent as anyone in the nation safe for a couple of schools in the nation. This is where me and you will continuously disagree. Might as well leave it at that.

It's high time our HC takes these multiple top 10 recruiting classes and turns them into top 10 ranked teams at the end of the year when it actually matters.  Screw all this preseason rankings crap and kowtowing to the underdog mentality, just field a consistent top 10 team with the talent at AU's disposal.

[AUpreacherman22 3,885]

Also according to ESPN:

Post-Signing Day Position Rankings in the SEC

QB - AU #2

RB - AU #5

WR/TE - AU #3

OL - AU #3

D Front 7 - AU #3

Secondary - AU #7

 

My thoughts:  QB and WR/TE are too high right now. There is a ton of potential there. But it's only potential right now. 

RB is too low. I would compare our RB situation favorably to anyone right now. 

OL, front 7, and DBs are pretty close to accurate IMHO. 

Your thoughts?

[AUwent 3,748]

^I guess the thinking is, after Hurts, who else? I mean, Shea Patterson had a good game against TAMU, but so did Jeremy Johnson in 2015.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

I

34 minutes ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

My thoughts:  QB and WR/TE are too high right now. There is a ton of potential there. But it's only potential right now. 

RB is too low. I would compare our RB situation favorably to anyone right now. 

OL, front 7, and DBs are pretty close to accurate IMHO. 

Your thoughts?

I think QB is right where it should be.  When healthy, Sean lead the SEC, and the only QB who surpassed him has graduated. There are QBs out there who have the potential, but outside of Arkansas, not a single team has a proven winner at QB, and Allen still hasn't been a difference maker.  Add to that Stidham, who should best Sean, I would say #2 might actually be low.  bama is getting a lot of credit for a true freshman and a QB who owes a lot of his glory to a defense with a knack for scoring and fixing his mistakes.... but this is ESPN... bama is always going to get extra credit from them.

I agree that we are low at running back. Alabama is, again, overrated in this category and while Guice is a rock star, his backups are nothing special. Georgia is the real deal with Chubb and Michel, but I don't know that they are better than our 4 horsemen. As for Arkansas... seriously? This writer must love him some Arkansas.

I think we're about right at receiver, with the chance to move up. 

Defensive front... Again, bama is overrated for being bama. They are a big ? on the front 7.  Do I think they will be very good, sure, but it's all speculation at this point. I would say it's really 1 a,b, & c with Auburn, LSU, and bama.  All have crazy talent and all have question marks, but I would put Auburn as 1 a now, because we have the most experience coming back.

[AUwent 3,748]

^Given that our best shots at UAT have come when they were the unanimous favorites to win the SEC (as they will be this year--a good number of people last year thought it was LSU's year), this is good.

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

7 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I

I think QB is right where it should be.  When healthy, Sean lead the SEC, and the only QB who surpassed him has graduated. There are QBs out there who have the potential, but outside of Arkansas, not a single team has a proven winner at QB, and Allen still hasn't been a difference maker.  Add to that Stidham, who should best Sean, I would say #2 might actually be low.  bama is getting a lot of credit for a true freshman and a a QB who owes a lot of his glory to a defense with a knack for scoring and fixing his mistakes.... but this is ESPN... bama is always going to get extra credit from them.

I agree that we are low at running back. Alabama is, again, overrated in this category and while Guice is a rock star, his backups are nothing special. Georgia is the real deal with Chubb and Michel, but I don't know that they are better than our 4 horsemen. As for Arkansas... seriously? This writer must love him some Arkansas.

I think we're about right at receiver, with the chance to move up. 

Defensive front... Again, bama is overrated for being bama. They are a big ? on the front 7.  Do I think they will be very good, sure, but it's all speculation at this point. I would say it's really 1 a,b, & c with Auburn, LSU, and bama.  All have crazy talent and all have question marks, but I would put Auburn as 1 a now, because we probably have the most experience coming back.

Edit mine

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

[AUpreacherman22 3,885]

Good point about QB. I still have too many images of hurt SW, and everything else we tried when SW wasn't in there.  I think after Spring, we may could be ranked #1 or 2 at QB.  And your right about Hurts  Great athlete who made some fantastic plays this year. But he was also a liability more often than he wasn't  

I totally agree that we have the chance to make a huge jump at WR/TE. We have tremendous potential there. But that's all it is at this point.  Again, after Spring, we could very well be top 2 or 3 in the league. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 minute ago, AUinTLoosa said:

Edit mine

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

I think that's actually a definite.  Georgia is returning more than we are, but they aren't in the top 3 discussion. Auburn is returning defensive 8 starters to LSU's 6 and bama's 5. On top of that, we rotated A TON of second and third string players last year. I'm pretty certain that we have the experience edge of the 3 teams.

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

5 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I think that's actually a definite.  Georgia is returning more than we are, but they aren't in the top 3 discussion. Auburn is returning defensive 8 starters to LSU's 6 and bama's 5. On top of that, we rotated A TON of second and third string players last year. I'm pretty certain that we have the experience edge of the 3 teams.

Understood and generally agreed with, but

off-season attrition and/or healing may factor in. They have before.

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

Just now, AUinTLoosa said:

Understood and generally agreed with, but

off-season attrition and/or healing may factor in. They have before.

 

Gotcha... 

[AU64 10,122]

Quarterback is potentially our strongest slot as compared to the rest of the SEC . I don't know what is going on but the quarterback situation in the conference last year and probably again this year is as weak as I can recall in many years.

Even Hurts , who some people rank at the top does not look any better than a number of other quarterbacks . He just has a better cast of players around him. 

 I agree, when healthy , Sean White is as good as anybody in the conference and better than most. Stidham has yet to take the field . He may be an improvement but he still has to earn the starting role. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

53 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Quarterback is potentially our strongest slot as compared to the rest of the SEC . I don't know what is going on but the quarterback situation in the conference last year and probably again this year is as weak as I can recall in many years.

I expect to see Bentley, Patterson and Eason make big strides next year. It will be interesting to see if Fitzgerald can thrive now the State is State again and everyone knows to contain him as a runner. I agree that Sean is up there and Stidham has the potential to eclipse all of them.

[bg5 536]

I think you not only have to look at us but who some of the teams we play lost. I really like playing one game before Clemson this year to get us ready. Clemson is losing almost all of their Off. So I think we beat them. That means we should go into Ole Miss. game 5-0. I think we handle Ole Miss and LSU like last year. and beat Arky and T A&M as well. We should have beaten Ga. last year so I think this year we take care of business. Any issues with WR's and the OL should be worked out by then.  ULM is a warm up for Bama who lost a ton on Def.. Bottom line we go into the year very different than last year. We have a QB that has had success at the college level. And finally a coach who can develop them.  If he were to get hurt for a game we have a solid back up. We have WR's with another year of experience and above avg. RB's. We replace two OL players but have good/great players that can fill those spots. The Def. should be just as good and in some spots better than last year. Why not #5?

[AUGoo 2,659]

Too high.

Haven't earned that at all.

It is based solely on hype.

Until CGM proves he is willing to allow a change in the O play calling, it's only hype.