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AU Ranked #5


AUpreacherman22

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AU ranked top ten?? Oh dear. 

Way too high IMO. Questions marks all over the place on this team. Those folks at ESPN have really bought into the Stidham hype

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Let's wait until the new guys atleast take some snaps in the spring. As far as the sec goes I would have us and LSU 2a and 2b behind bama

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I would prefer to be ranked in the 20's, or worse, and then crash everyone's party like we did in 2010 and 2013.  But, I guess I could live with a 5th ranking.  I could probably sleep at night with that number...

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ESPN is definitely very high on Stidham.

I would have LSU higher, but their QB situation is a mess right now. 

IMHO, Clemson has earned the "reload to be a contender every year" label.  They have to replace a lot including the best college QB since Cam Newton. But I would have them ranked above AU. 

I haven't done any research on the West Coast, but I would think one of USC, Stanford, or Washington should be higher. 

Maybe Penn St.?

Everyone has question marks going into the year. Bama is replacing 4 of their front 7 and ESPN has their front 7 ranked #1 (and rightly so, IMHO). At every spot, we have a guy with at least some playing time who we feel could step up and fill the role. Guys like Stidham and Ashley are just expected to beat out those guys. 

As of right now, I would guess #8-10 is probably the best place for AU. We'll see what happens in the Spring to move my thoughts up or down. 

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38 minutes ago, gravejd said:

AU ranked top ten?? Oh dear. 

Way too high IMO. Questions marks all over the place on this team. Those folks at ESPN have really bought into the Stidham hype

Please elaborate on all these question marks.

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Power index, guys. As in not factoring in schedule. For instance, if we had Georgia's cakewalk of a schedule, I would possibly predict an undefeated season.

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Lots of potential with this Auburn team even without Stidham.  I have a feeling a lot of folks will be high on Auburn preseason based on that 6 game run before the injuries started.  Even if Sean goes out and beats Stidham I wouldn't expect much of a slip in rankings.  We'll find out how good this team is real quick over in South Carolina week 2.

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8 minutes ago, SumterAubie said:

Please elaborate on all these question marks.

ok, the first is QB. The second is what kind offense will we even run (new OC). Third is how will OL play out and most importantly the OT spots. Fourth is who will step up at WR. 

The most important question on D is who is going to get after the QB? Other than that D looks good but if you can't rush the passer without blitzing then you cannot have a good defense in the SEC. Questions about depth on D but very few teams don't have questions when talking about second line players so not point in worrying about that. 

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Something else to watch is how quick the offense adapts to Chip.  If coach Lindsey's terminology is a lot different than the Rhett and Gus show it may take a couple games for everybody to be on the same page.  If Auburn is gonna lose, it'll be better to lose early than late.

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Personally, I think they may have under-ranked our D and over-ranked our O, but when you look at sheer talent, I don't disagree with us being #5.  I can't name another team, that's not already above us, that has the same amount of young, experienced talent without any glaring holes.

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I think going 15-0 is a reasonable goal for 2017!

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Interesting look and take on the subject of returning starters and production in this article.  I think the sky is the limit for the 2017 TIgers.  All the pieces are there for an SEC title run and NC playoff/title run, imo.  It all depends on those pieces merging together.  My hope is that Lindsey will be able to shake off the 3-4 game adjustment stigma that AU has been plagued by the last few years where CGM and company are trying to feel out the O to see what they have.  While I realize that will happen with every team, I don't think it has been quite worse for AU. Arguably, AU had the most and best depth at OL and WR, so i think filling in two OL shouldn't be a huge issue.  I think the WRs will thrive and flourish in Lindsey's O.  Like others I do believe Stidham wins the QB spot, which has potential to mean possibly bigger things ahead for AU.  I think SW could just as well lead AU to title runs, if he could stay healthy for the full year.  2017 should be a fun year!

 

Auburn football could return more starters in 2017 than it has in its last dozen seasons

AUBURN, Ala. — While Tray Matthews’ decision to return to the Auburn football program for his senior season wasn’t a surprise, it cemented an important number about the returning talent for Gus Malzahn’s team in 2017.

Now that Matthews is officially staying in school, Auburn could return up to 17 offensive and defensive starters in 2017, depending on what one calls a “returning starter.” But even the most conservative of definitions would give Auburn more returning starters for 2017 than it has in any of its last 12 seasons.

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn repeatedly said the Tigers had a bright future during their 2016 season. That had a lot to do with the massive amount of experienced talent he’ll have at his disposal in 2017.

MORE: Where are the Tigers in the way-too-early Top 25 rankings for 2017?

“We have got a bunch of guys back,” Malzahn said shortly after Auburn’s Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma earlier this month. “We’ve got a bunch of young guys that will learn from this experience, and the future is bright in that locker room.”

Returning talent doesn’t guarantee future success. But it’s undoubtedly better to have experience than it is to rebuild a depth chart for the upcoming season.

Whether one looks at the traditional returning starter count or dives into the numbers of returning production, it’s easy to see why Malzahn is so high on his Tigers in 2017.

Auburn football-Eli Stove-Auburn Tigers
Auburn wide receiver Eli Stove (Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

How many returning starters does Auburn have?

How many returning starters could Auburn have in the 2017 season? It depends on how that term is defined — and it’s not as easy as it may seem.

Only 11 players can start on offense and defense in a college football game. The first 11 on the field are the official starters. That can make establishing a definition hard, especially for an Auburn team that relies on multiple packages on both sides of the ball.

For example, Auburn’s official depth chart lists 12 starters on offense and 12 starters on defense.

On offense, the extra man happens because the Tigers list four wide receivers as starters, along with an H-back or a tight end. Auburn rarely starts a game with four wide receivers, though, and it usually opts for a three-wide lineup with an H-back. Then there are games like the Sugar Bowl in which the Auburn starting lineup contained two wide receivers, one H-back and one tight end.

On defense, the extra man is a simpler explanation. Auburn is a 4-3 defense by design, but it often plays in a 4-2-5 nickel system to combat spread offenses. Therefore Auburn either starts a third linebacker or a nickel back — never both at the same time. Auburn returns all three of its starting linebackers in 2016, but it loses its top nickel back, Rudy Ford.

2017 DEPTH CHART PROJECTIONS: Offense | Defense and Special Teams

A traditional returning starter count, like the ones used in this analysis from Phil Steele and NationalChamps.net, only tallies 11 offensive starters and 11 defensive starters. Some use the nickel back, others go with three linebackers.

Using Auburn’s official team depth chart — one with 12 starters on offense and 12 starters on defense — the Tigers will have 17 returning starters on its roster in 2017.

OFFENSE   DEFENSE  
Sean White QB Marlon Davidson DE
Kamryn Pettway RB Montravius Adams DT
Darius Slayton WR Dontavius Russell DT
Ryan Davis WR Carl Lawson BUCK
Tony Stevens  WR Deshaun Davis MLB
Eli Stove WR Darrell Williams SLB
Chandler Cox HB/TE Tre’ Williams WLB
Darius James LT Carlton Davis CB
Alex Kozan LG Josh Holsey CB
Austin Golson C Rudy Ford NICKEL
Braden Smith RG Stephen Roberts FS
Robert Leff RT Tray Matthews SS

Using the traditional 11-starter method, Auburn returns 16 starters — 9 on offense (Eli Stove had as many starts as Tony Stevens at receiver and played more toward the end of the 2016 season) and 7 on defense (Auburn played more nickel than 3-linebacker sets).

Either way, it’s clear that Auburn can return at least 16 starters in 2017. Not all of them are locked in as starters in 2017 by any means. But that experience on the roster is still the same heading into the new season.

Auburn football-Darrell Williams-linebackers
Auburn linebacker Darrell Williams (Dakota Sumpter/Auburn Athletics)

More returning starters than the last decade-plus

Auburn has had experienced teams in the last several seasons, but the 2017 one arguably has the most in more than a decade.

Using Phil Steele’s College Football Preview magazines for the 2008-2016 seasons and NationalChamps.net for the 2002-2007 seasons — results cut off before 2002 — here’s a look at how many starters Auburn returned in recent years.

YEAR OFF DEF TOTAL RECORD
2017 9 7 or 8 16 or 17 ???
2016 6 6 12 8-5
2015 4 8 12 7-6
2014 7 6 13 8-5
2013 7 7 14 12-2
2012 6 9 15 3-9
2011 3 3 6 8-5
2010 7 8 15 14-0
2009 6 7 13 8-5
2008 8 7 15 5-7
2007 6 7 13 9-4
2006 5 5 10 11-2
2005 6 6 12 9-3
2004 8 6 14 13-0
2003 8 8 16 8-5
2002 6 8 14 9-4

Auburn hasn’t returned as much starting talent to a roster in a single season since 2003. The above table shows a few positive trends and a big warning sign when it comes to returning experience.

First and foremost, the 2003 season wasn’t great for the Tigers. Auburn returned all those starters from a 9-4 team and scored 3 points in its first two games of the season. The Tigers fell from No. 6 in the preseason poll to unranked in less than a month, and they lost three of their final four SEC games.

ASTLEFORD: Everyone should be wary of Auburn’s offseason hype

Having returning experience is great, but it’s all about taking full advantage of it. More returning starters usually leads to more success in the following season. Auburn returned 14 or more starters in three of its last four seasons with double-digit wins. It also returned that many in its most recent losing campaigns — 2008 and 2012.

Still, Auburn has only had one double-digit-win season — 2006 — in which it returned fewer than 14 starters. It’s much harder to compete for championships at Auburn when the Tigers have to rebuild their depth charts.

Auburn football-Auburn Tigers-Kamryn Pettway
Auburn running back Kamryn Pettway (Dakota Sumpter/Auburn Athletics)

Returning production: A newer view

Not all returning starters are created equal, and players further down on the depth chart at key positions can be just as important as some first-teamers. Returning a lot of productive players from a past season is the best-case scenario for a team.

This idea originally came from the brilliant mind of Bill Connelly at SB Nation. Connelly, inventor of the S&P+ ratings system for college football, came up with his own formula to show how much a team’s offense and defense is returning.

Instead of compiling all the data into a weighted system like Connelly, here’s a simpler look at the returning production for Auburn in 2017 based on raw statistics:

STATISTIC 2016 TOTAL RETURNING % RETURNING
Passing Yards 2,203 1,891 85.8%
Rushing Yards 3,527 3,273 92.8%
Receiving Yards 2,203 1,431 65.0%
Tackles 847 631 74.5%
Tackles for Loss 83 48.5 58.4%
Sacks 24 10.5 42.0%
Interceptions 11 7 63.6%
Pass Breakups 67 41 61.2%
QB Hurries 86 47 54.7%

Roughly 81 percent of Auburn’s offensive production from 2016 will be back in 2017. The Tigers might not reuse all of it, especially if transfer Jarrett Stidham beats out Sean White for the starting quarterback job. But that doesn’t change the fact the production will be back on the roster, barring transfers.

The Tigers’ biggest area of offensive concern, unsurprisingly, will be in the passing game. Auburn must replace its top yardage receiver in Stevens, and it’ll have to come with a new offensive coordinator and possibly a new quarterback. But Auburn has a lot of bright young talent at the position — eight of its top 10 receivers in 2016 were all underclassmen.

Defensively, Auburn returns most of its production in every area except for the pass rush. With Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams off to the NFL, the Tigers need to find new ways to generate sacks. Starting end Marlon Davidson, backup defensive tackle Andrew Williams and backup Buck end Jeff Holland are the only returning players who recorded multiple sacks in 2016.

But Auburn’s returning experience at linebacker and defensive back shine through in the above table, especially in the area of tackles. Auburn played much better defensive ball in 2016 than it has in several seasons, and having most of that talent coming back will be crucial in 2017.

Auburn football-Daniel Carlson-Sugar Bowl
Auburn kicker Daniel Carlson (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Lastly, here’s a bonus note, and one that some might be wondering aloud about in this analysis.

Returning starter counts don’t normally include specialists. However, it’s definitely worth mentioning that Auburn returns one of the best kickers in the country in 2017.

Two-time Groza Award finalist Daniel Carlson is back. That means 100 percent of Auburn’s field goals, 100 percent of Auburn’s extra points — a grand total of 134 points — and 100 percent of Auburn’s touchbacks will be back in 2017.

Tack Carlson’s ultra-reliable leg onto the amount of returning experience Auburn has in 2017, and it’s easy to see why Malzahn is so high on his roster.

However, as the highs and lows of recent Auburn seasons show, returning experience is a luxury. But underachieving with a lot of it quickly leads to firings on the Plains.

https://www.seccountry.com/auburn/auburn-football-returning-starters-2017

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55 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Lots of potential with this Auburn team even without Stidham.  I have a feeling a lot of folks will be high on Auburn preseason based on that 6 game run before the injuries started.  Even if Sean goes out and beats Stidham I wouldn't expect much of a slip in rankings.  We'll find out how good this team is real quick over in South Carolina week 2.

That a dig at Clemson or a mistake??

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13 minutes ago, AuGrad2004 said:

That a dig at Clemson or a mistake??

Clemson is in South Carolina so I guess a dig but not really

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11 minutes ago, AuGrad2004 said:

That a dig at Clemson or a mistake??

Well, we play Georgia Southern at home week 1 and Clemson there in week 2 and Clemson is in South Carolina.  So the original note of " We'll find out how good this team is real quick over in South Carolina week 2." makes sense to me.  The only dig is we will beat the defending national champs on their home field.

·  

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1 hour ago, AUwent said:

Power index, guys. As in not factoring in schedule. For instance, if we had Georgia's cakewalk of a schedule, I would possibly predict an undefeated season.

Uga's schedule isn't too much of a cakewalk, because they play Auburn!

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2 hours ago, abw0004 said:

I would prefer to be ranked in the 20's, or worse, and then crash everyone's party like we did in 2010 and 2013.  But, I guess I could live with a 5th ranking.  I could probably sleep at night with that number...

I am OK with it if we get by Clemson. But yes, as always I prefer to crash the party lie we did 2010 and 2013. If we can play and consistently live up to the hype, then I may get used to it.

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I don't embrace the underdog mentality for one second.  I want expectations to be high, and if a coach can't deliver that on a fairly consistent basis, get another coach.

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32 minutes ago, Mike4AU said:

I don't embrace the underdog mentality for one second.  I want expectations to be high, and if a coach can't deliver that on a fairly consistent basis, get another coach.

I'd like to get out of that mindset too.  

But, if we went out and methodically beat teams next year in dominant fashion, and looked good doing it, and didn't take our foot off the gas even with substitutes in the game, I'm not sure I'd know how to react.  Even the with the 2004 team, Tubbs let up on the gas in a few games which cost us rankings.

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3 hours ago, DAG said:

It is time we start accepting our role and living up to expectations. No more running.

I hate that way to many Auburn fans who  rather be underdogs. Why? I rather be the hunted and keep winning than tank when we have high expectations and only seem to have a great season when AU "sneaks" up on people. Like you said it is time we should be consistently excellent each year.

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