AU Ranked #5

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Focusing on the offense...

* QB: The most important position on the field. Well according to those who have seen Stidham play, he seems to be pretty good. Really good actually. If he can stay healthy, watch out...

* WR: We probably have the most talented group of HS WR to ever assemble at one time at AU. Will they pan out? We will see. But you mix them together with a good QB and we could be lethal through the air. 

* RB: Kam P was leading the SEC before he got hurt. KJ, also fighting through injuries, balled out in the LSU game. Add the other Kam, some newcomers, and mix in a good passing game (to keep teams from crowding the line) and the running game has a chance to be lethal...again.

* Offense in general: The great unknown is how the team will react to the new offense, how quickly they can pick it up, and can the OL gel by game #2? But at least from a talent standpoint, we are not at a disadvantage on the field to start the season. 

Focusing on the Defense...

* DL should be strong, but not as strong as last year. I expect some drop off, but we still have talent. Brown, Davidson - but young but elite. They can turn the game around in just one play. Russell and Holland are very good. PJ3 - will he play? Cowart? Coe?

* LB should be the best it has been in many years. Quality starters, elite players now at backup. Top to bottom maybe the best LB potential AU has had since the 80s. We just need to see how the youth can help the veterans. 

* CB and Safety - This is one area of concern. Ruffin, T Matthews (when healthy), J Davis, Broussard, and the up and coming Daniel Thomas are pretty good. Will Dinson return? Who else will step up?

* Defense should be better this year if for no other reason that they should have help offensively. 

* And then you add the best kicker (IMO) in all of college football.

Again, the motto should be No Excuses for this team.

[sevenlee36 1,654]

It seems we usually end up looking for a new coach after a high preseason ranking.

[GwillMac6 20,607]

13 minutes ago, sevenlee36 said:

It seems we usually end up looking for a new coach after a high preseason ranking.

2012 I do not want to say we saw it coming but were we even ranked going in to the year? I truly do not remember. 08 yes LAWWWWWD yes. We were picked to win the sec. That I do remember.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

23 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

I hate th way to many Auburn fans who  rather be underdogs. Why? 

Because we traditionally perform better with a chip on our shoulder than when we're leading the pack. 

[Strychnine 1,802]

11 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

Because we traditionally perform better with a chip on our shoulder than when we're leading the pack. 

 

That is a stigma that will have to be dispensed with if Auburn intends to go to, and then stay, at the top.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 minute ago, Strychnine said:

 

That is a stigma that will have to be dispensed with if Auburn intends to go to, and then stay, at the top.

True, but it is why people like being the underdog.

[McLoofus 35,182]

47 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

I hate th way to many Auburn fans who  rather be underdogs. Why? I rather be the hunted and keep winning than tank when we have high expectations and only seem to have a great season when AU "sneaks" up on people. Like you said it is time we should be consistently excellent each year.

 

10 minutes ago, Strychnine said:

That is a stigma that will have to be dispensed with if Auburn intends to go to, and then stay, at the top.

 

8 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

True, but it is why people like being the underdog.

I agree with all three of you. I get why so many fans prefer the underdog role, or try to convince themselves that it's what they prefer. I can't stand it myself, and I *really* can't stand it when those same fans bitch and moan about a perceived lack of respect from the media and rival fans. 

Either you're big time or you're not. We absolutely are not... but we should be. And that's why folks get emotional. (It's also probably why UGA fans have become so insufferable. They should've been big time for almost all of Richt's run there, but they weren't. Meanwhile they saw dumb lil' ol' Auburn go to the dance. Twice. LOL. Suck it, humpers.)

[Tiger 8,818]

3 hours ago, tgr4lfe said:

Interesting look and take on the subject of returning starters and production in this article.  I think the sky is the limit for the 2017 TIgers.  All the pieces are there for an SEC title run and NC playoff/title run, imo.  It all depends on those pieces merging together.  My hope is that Lindsey will be able to shake off the 3-4 game adjustment stigma that AU has been plagued by the last few years where CGM and company are trying to feel out the O to see what they have.  While I realize that will happen with every team, I don't think it has been quite worse for AU. Arguably, AU had the most and best depth at OL and WR, so i think filling in two OL shouldn't be a huge issue.  I think the WRs will thrive and flourish in Lindsey's O.  Like others I do believe Stidham wins the QB spot, which has potential to mean possibly bigger things ahead for AU.  I think SW could just as well lead AU to title runs, if he could stay healthy for the full year.  2017 should be a fun year!

 

Auburn football could return more starters in 2017 than it has in its last dozen seasons

 JUSTIN FERGUSON 

Auburn Beat Reporter

 

AUBURN, Ala. — While Tray Matthews’ decision to return to the Auburn football program for his senior season wasn’t a surprise, it cemented an important number about the returning talent for Gus Malzahn’s team in 2017.

Now that Matthews is officially staying in school, Auburn could return up to 17 offensive and defensive starters in 2017, depending on what one calls a “returning starter.” But even the most conservative of definitions would give Auburn more returning starters for 2017 than it has in any of its last 12 seasons.

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn repeatedly said the Tigers had a bright future during their 2016 season. That had a lot to do with the massive amount of experienced talent he’ll have at his disposal in 2017.

MORE: Where are the Tigers in the way-too-early Top 25 rankings for 2017?

“We have got a bunch of guys back,” Malzahn said shortly after Auburn’s Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma earlier this month. “We’ve got a bunch of young guys that will learn from this experience, and the future is bright in that locker room.”

Returning talent doesn’t guarantee future success. But it’s undoubtedly better to have experience than it is to rebuild a depth chart for the upcoming season.

Whether one looks at the traditional returning starter count or dives into the numbers of returning production, it’s easy to see why Malzahn is so high on his Tigers in 2017.

Auburn wide receiver Eli Stove (Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

How many returning starters does Auburn have?

How many returning starters could Auburn have in the 2017 season? It depends on how that term is defined — and it’s not as easy as it may seem.

Only 11 players can start on offense and defense in a college football game. The first 11 on the field are the official starters. That can make establishing a definition hard, especially for an Auburn team that relies on multiple packages on both sides of the ball.

For example, Auburn’s official depth chart lists 12 starters on offense and 12 starters on defense.

On offense, the extra man happens because the Tigers list four wide receivers as starters, along with an H-back or a tight end. Auburn rarely starts a game with four wide receivers, though, and it usually opts for a three-wide lineup with an H-back. Then there are games like the Sugar Bowl in which the Auburn starting lineup contained two wide receivers, one H-back and one tight end.

On defense, the extra man is a simpler explanation. Auburn is a 4-3 defense by design, but it often plays in a 4-2-5 nickel system to combat spread offenses. Therefore Auburn either starts a third linebacker or a nickel back — never both at the same time. Auburn returns all three of its starting linebackers in 2016, but it loses its top nickel back, Rudy Ford.

2017 DEPTH CHART PROJECTIONS: Offense | Defense and Special Teams

A traditional returning starter count, like the ones used in this analysis from Phil Steele and NationalChamps.net, only tallies 11 offensive starters and 11 defensive starters. Some use the nickel back, others go with three linebackers.

Using Auburn’s official team depth chart — one with 12 starters on offense and 12 starters on defense — the Tigers will have 17 returning starters on its roster in 2017.

OFFENSE		DEFENSE
Sean White	QB	Marlon Davidson	DE
Kamryn Pettway	RB	Montravius Adams	DT
Darius Slayton	WR	Dontavius Russell	DT
Ryan Davis	WR	Carl Lawson	BUCK
Tony Stevens	WR	Deshaun Davis	MLB
Eli Stove	WR	Darrell Williams	SLB
Chandler Cox	HB/TE	Tre’ Williams	WLB
Darius James	LT	Carlton Davis	CB
Alex Kozan	LG	Josh Holsey	CB
Austin Golson	C	Rudy Ford	NICKEL
Braden Smith	RG	Stephen Roberts	FS
Robert Leff	RT	Tray Matthews	SS

Using the traditional 11-starter method, Auburn returns 16 starters — 9 on offense (Eli Stove had as many starts as Tony Stevens at receiver and played more toward the end of the 2016 season) and 7 on defense (Auburn played more nickel than 3-linebacker sets).

Either way, it’s clear that Auburn can return at least 16 starters in 2017. Not all of them are locked in as starters in 2017 by any means. But that experience on the roster is still the same heading into the new season.

Auburn linebacker Darrell Williams (Dakota Sumpter/Auburn Athletics)

More returning starters than the last decade-plus

Auburn has had experienced teams in the last several seasons, but the 2017 one arguably has the most in more than a decade.

Using Phil Steele’s College Football Preview magazines for the 2008-2016 seasons and NationalChamps.net for the 2002-2007 seasons — results cut off before 2002 — here’s a look at how many starters Auburn returned in recent years.

YEAR	OFF	DEF	TOTAL	RECORD
2017	9	7 or 8	16 or 17	???
2016	6	6	12	8-5
2015	4	8	12	7-6
2014	7	6	13	8-5
2013	7	7	14	12-2
2012	6	9	15	3-9
2011	3	3	6	8-5
2010	7	8	15	14-0
2009	6	7	13	8-5
2008	8	7	15	5-7
2007	6	7	13	9-4
2006	5	5	10	11-2
2005	6	6	12	9-3
2004	8	6	14	13-0
2003	8	8	16	8-5
2002	6	8	14	9-4

Auburn hasn’t returned as much starting talent to a roster in a single season since 2003. The above table shows a few positive trends and a big warning sign when it comes to returning experience.

First and foremost, the 2003 season wasn’t great for the Tigers. Auburn returned all those starters from a 9-4 team and scored 3 points in its first two games of the season. The Tigers fell from No. 6 in the preseason poll to unranked in less than a month, and they lost three of their final four SEC games.

ASTLEFORD: Everyone should be wary of Auburn’s offseason hype

Having returning experience is great, but it’s all about taking full advantage of it. More returning starters usually leads to more success in the following season. Auburn returned 14 or more starters in three of its last four seasons with double-digit wins. It also returned that many in its most recent losing campaigns — 2008 and 2012.

Still, Auburn has only had one double-digit-win season — 2006 — in which it returned fewer than 14 starters. It’s much harder to compete for championships at Auburn when the Tigers have to rebuild their depth charts.

Auburn running back Kamryn Pettway (Dakota Sumpter/Auburn Athletics)

Returning production: A newer view

Not all returning starters are created equal, and players further down on the depth chart at key positions can be just as important as some first-teamers. Returning a lot of productive players from a past season is the best-case scenario for a team.

This idea originally came from the brilliant mind of Bill Connelly at SB Nation. Connelly, inventor of the S&P+ ratings system for college football, came up with his own formula to show how much a team’s offense and defense is returning.

Instead of compiling all the data into a weighted system like Connelly, here’s a simpler look at the returning production for Auburn in 2017 based on raw statistics:

STATISTIC	2016 TOTAL	RETURNING	% RETURNING
Passing Yards	2,203	1,891	85.8%
Rushing Yards	3,527	3,273	92.8%
Receiving Yards	2,203	1,431	65.0%
Tackles	847	631	74.5%
Tackles for Loss	83	48.5	58.4%
Sacks	24	10.5	42.0%
Interceptions	11	7	63.6%
Pass Breakups	67	41	61.2%
QB Hurries	86	47	54.7%

Roughly 81 percent of Auburn’s offensive production from 2016 will be back in 2017. The Tigers might not reuse all of it, especially if transfer Jarrett Stidham beats out Sean White for the starting quarterback job. But that doesn’t change the fact the production will be back on the roster, barring transfers.

The Tigers’ biggest area of offensive concern, unsurprisingly, will be in the passing game. Auburn must replace its top yardage receiver in Stevens, and it’ll have to come with a new offensive coordinator and possibly a new quarterback. But Auburn has a lot of bright young talent at the position — eight of its top 10 receivers in 2016 were all underclassmen.

Defensively, Auburn returns most of its production in every area except for the pass rush. With Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams off to the NFL, the Tigers need to find new ways to generate sacks. Starting end Marlon Davidson, backup defensive tackle Andrew Williams and backup Buck end Jeff Holland are the only returning players who recorded multiple sacks in 2016.

But Auburn’s returning experience at linebacker and defensive back shine through in the above table, especially in the area of tackles. Auburn played much better defensive ball in 2016 than it has in several seasons, and having most of that talent coming back will be crucial in 2017.

Auburn kicker Daniel Carlson (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Lastly, here’s a bonus note, and one that some might be wondering aloud about in this analysis.

Returning starter counts don’t normally include specialists. However, it’s definitely worth mentioning that Auburn returns one of the best kickers in the country in 2017.

Two-time Groza Award finalist Daniel Carlson is back. That means 100 percent of Auburn’s field goals, 100 percent of Auburn’s extra points — a grand total of 134 points — and 100 percent of Auburn’s touchbacks will be back in 2017.

Tack Carlson’s ultra-reliable leg onto the amount of returning experience Auburn has in 2017, and it’s easy to see why Malzahn is so high on his roster.

However, as the highs and lows of recent Auburn seasons show, returning experience is a luxury. But underachieving with a lot of it quickly leads to firings on the Plains.

https://www.seccountry.com/auburn/auburn-football-returning-starters-2017

Well, this is the money post/article right here. As some of you will know and probably get annoyed at my incessant pointing to the experience numbers this one particular article here gets me extremely pumped for the upcoming year.

We are seriously poised to make a big splash next year (barring a total Tony Franklin-esque meltdown) and the year following depending on how many of our guys end up leaving.

[Strychnine 1,802]

27 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

 

 

I agree with all three of you. I get why so many fans prefer the underdog role, or try to convince themselves that it's what they prefer. I can't stand it myself, and I *really* can't stand it when those same fans bitch and moan about a perceived lack of respect from the media and rival fans. 

Either you're big time or you're not. We absolutely are not... but we should be. And that's why folks get emotional. (It's also probably why UGA fans have become so insufferable. They should've been big time for almost all of Richt's run there, but they weren't. Meanwhile they saw dumb lil' ol' Auburn go to the dance. Twice. LOL. Suck it, humpers.)

 

I think Tuberville's disturbing knack for winning big games he was expected to lose, and losing games he had no business losing, went a long way toward really cementing that underdog preference in the fanbase.  It is absolutely true that you are big time or you are not, and underdogs are never consistently big time.  Underdogs make some noise, and fade back into obscurity.  Auburn has made a big time commitment to the football program.  No room for wanting to be the underdog if you want to also be a consistent top 10 program.

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, Strychnine said:

No room for wanting to be the underdog if you want to also be a consistent top 10 program.

 

[GwillMac6 20,607]

49 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

True, but it is why people like being the underdog.

Auburn is not a underdog program but we do have a underdog mentality it seems from the guy in the AD to the other people in power. But no one has more we love being the underdog mentality than the Auburn fans. That has to change. We need to embrace being the hunted and relish in it.

[doc4aday 1,887]

3 hours ago, DAG said:

It is time we start accepting our role and living up to expectations. No more running.

how about speed walking?

[lionheartkc 6,150]

2 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

Auburn is not a underdog program but we do have a underdog mentality it seems from the guy in the AD to the other people in power. But no one has more we love being the underdog mentality than the Auburn fans. That has to change. We need to embrace being the hunted and relish in it.

I get you... I was just stating why.  When something historically goes your way, you tend to become a "fan"... especially sports fans who are about as superstitious as the come. Being the underdog historically goes our way, so people cling to it.

[GwillMac6 20,607]

8 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I get you... I was just stating why.  When something historically goes your way, you tend to become a "fan"... especially sports fans who are about as superstitious as the come. Being the underdog historically goes our way, so people cling to it.

being the underdog is a crutch IMO of course that way to many Auburn ppl use when they feel we are slighted because of "bias" in the national media.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Agree with all of you about the underdog role that AU seems to relish. Can anyone remember the last time we were picked to do well (like win the SEC) and we did? The 80s?

 

[GwillMac6 20,607]

1 minute ago, gr82b4au said:

Agree with all of you about the underdog role that AU seems to relish. Can anyone remember the last time we were picked to do well (like win the SEC) and we did? The 80s?

 

had to be the 80's under dye the last time we had back to back 10 win seasons and the last time it seemed like the AU program CONSISTENTLY played with some swagger and always had a attitude about them.

[corchjay 5,311]

It's not where you start but where you finish.  

 

[SumterAubie 3,031]

4 hours ago, gravejd said:

ok, the first is QB. The second is what kind offense will we even run (new OC). Third is how will OL play out and most importantly the OT spots. Fourth is who will step up at WR. 

The most important question on D is who is going to get after the QB? Other than that D looks good but if you can't rush the passer without blitzing then you cannot have a good defense in the SEC. Questions about depth on D but very few teams don't have questions when talking about second line players so not point in worrying about that. 

Okay. So more of questions as to who the player might be at certain positions, not so much as questions in a negative sense.

[keesler 5,924]

1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

Because we traditionally perform better with a chip on our shoulder than when we're leading the pack. 

This notion "might" have some truth to it, but it shouldn't.  We've had multiple coaching staffs, with a multitude of players come and go over the years.  The attitudes, personalities, and motivations change with every regime.  Historically, we are pretty consistent with a few really high's and low's mixed in, but overall Auburn football is a solid 8 win/yr team.  

[lionheartkc 6,150]

Just now, keesler said:

This notion "might" have some truth to it, but it shouldn't.  We've had multiple coaching staffs, with a multitude of players come and go over the years.  The attitudes, personalities, and motivations change with every regime.  Historically, we are pretty consistent with a few really high's and low's mixed in, but overall Auburn football is a solid 8 win/yr team.  

Like I told everyone else... I get it... I'm just saying why Auburn fans like being the underdog. They see a pattern and fall into "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" mode. We were very much the underdog in our last two National Championship runs (pre-season 23 and unranked), as well as 1993 (unranked) and were even outside of the discussion to start 2004, even though we were reasonably ranked pre-season (17th).

Conversely, when we are ranked high, pre-season, we tend to disappoint, if not tank entirely.

[PatBoCamRob 30]

" The last time the Tigers started a season this high in any ranking, they barely finished above .500. Auburn was No. 6 in the 2015 AP preseason poll, but lost four of its first eight games, finished 2-6 in SEC play and just barely squeezed into a bowl game."

[AURex 1,984]

This is one of those situations where you can have high expectations and still play the underdog role, because no matter how high the expectations for Auburn, the expectations for that team up the road are even higher, so Auburn is still considered the underdog in that picture.

 

[DAG 33,955]

54 minutes ago, AURex said:

This is one of those situations where you can have high expectations and still play the underdog role, because no matter how high the expectations for Auburn, the expectations for that team up the road are even higher, so Auburn is still considered the underdog in that picture.

 

 

Well yes, if you compare yourself to Alabama, of course, you will be the underdog.  They are the #1 team. However, if you are considered a top 5 team, it is hard to play the underdog role. In fact, it is rather obtuse.

[AUsince72 11,084]

My two tarnished pennies....

Nobady WANTS Auburn to be perpetual underdogs.  They/we just have DECADES of experience that has made being the underdog a warm, comfy blanket.

Consider, AU shares the conference, division & state with tha mahty tahd.  Hell, SHUG spent his career being an underdog.

The fact that Auburn football is as good as it is despite it's cross-state rival should speak volumes to it's success regardless.  How does AU's record of success compare with UCLA, Mich. St., Okla. St., Oregon St., Wash. St., etc, etc, etc.  Auburn has made an art of the "little brother" underdog role.

It is what it is...

War Eagle!

[AUBwins 10,064]

8 hours ago, Win4AU said:

Something else to watch is how quick the offense adapts to Chip.  If coach Lindsey's terminology is a lot different than the Rhett and Gus show it may take a couple games for everybody to be on the same page. ...

Then we should be no worse off then usual. It always takes 3-4 games to know our identity under Gus. ?