eulessau 115 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Would love to see Stat Tigers experience factor numbers for 2017. Never can remember the exact formula, but has to do with number of players returning with 20 games experience and number with 30 years experience. Seems to have been a fairly good barometer of future success in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger 8,818 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, eulessau said: Would love to see Stat Tigers experience factor numbers for 2017. Never can remember the exact formula, but has to do with number of players returning with 20 games experience and number with 30 years experience. Seems to have been a fairly good barometer of future success in the past. @tgr4lfe posted this article that will help you out. https://www.seccountry.com/auburn/auburn-football-returning-starters-2017 I also think that Stat's formula is the absolute best way to get a feel for how an upcoming season is going to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, Tiger said: I also think that Stat's formula is the absolute best way to get a feel for how an upcoming season is going to go. He didn't predict Jeremy's complete meltdown, but he kinda predicted 2015 based off that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger 8,818 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, McLoofus said: He didn't predict Jeremy's complete meltdown, but he kinda predicted 2015 based off that. Yup! The JJ thing just seemed to magnify our experience deficiencies up and down our entire roster. IMO You can offset youth to some degree with dynamic QB play but with minus QB play it made the issue that much harder to overcome. But we have finally, HOPEFULLY, weathered through our roster's growing pains and this coming year and next year are really poised to be huge for us if we stay on schedule -- which is never a given. But I think there's a good chance that we are scary good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Tiger said: Yup! The JJ thing just seemed to magnify our experience deficiencies up and down our entire roster. IMO You can offset youth to some degree with dynamic QB play but with minus QB play it made the issue that much harder to overcome. But we have finally, HOPEFULLY, weathered through our roster's growing pains and this coming year and next year are really poised to be huge for us if we stay on schedule -- which is never a given. But I think there's a good chance that we are scary good this year. Outta likes but had to acknowledge. All of that ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUld fAUx@ 2,584 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 9 hours ago, Tiger said: Yup! The JJ thing just seemed to magnify our experience deficiencies up and down our entire roster. IMO You can offset youth to some degree with dynamic QB play but with minus QB play it made the issue that much harder to overcome. But we have finally, HOPEFULLY, weathered through our roster's growing pains and this coming year and next year are really poised to be huge for us if we stay on schedule -- which is never a given. But I think there's a good chance that we are scary good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
logan adams 333 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 1:10 PM, Mike4AU said: I don't embrace the underdog mentality for one second. I want expectations to be high, and if a coach can't deliver that on a fairly consistent basis, get another coach. This 100% percent. I'm tired of people moaning and complaining about this ranking and high expectations. Embrace them! And root for the kids and coaches to come through and perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gowebb11 9,309 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Justin Fergusom's win/loss table tells a less than impressive story. Seven of the last ten years we've had 5 or more losses and only twice have we attained double digit wins. Two years we played for the national championship. Based on that, I'm predicting Auburn finishing somewhere between 5th in the nation and 5th in the SEC West. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUpreacherman22 3,876 Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 The SEC West is a place where even minor weaknesses can be exploited multiple weeks of the season. In other conferences, they may only get really tested 1, 2, or 3 times a year. When we have QB issues, like 2015 and 2016 we lose at least 4-5 games. If our front 7 is weak, at least 4-5 teams will destroy us (see 2011-12) This is no place for a "rebuilding year". Our coaching carousel and our "series of unfortunate events" at QB have kept us from any kind of consistency. When those of us labeled sunshine pumpers say "this could be the year that changes" it is true. And it appears that maybe Gus is doing the right things to be that guy to lead us there. We'll see. Either this year starts our run as a consistent elite team, or we start the process all over again next year with our new up and comer, maybe this is our next great coach, guy. I am hoping for the former scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weagl1 1,781 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 I saw an article on Yahoo where some writer was predicting us to make the playoff along with FSU, Oklahoma St., and I forgot who the other one was. I went back later to try to copy a link and couldn't find the article again. Stuff pops up on there and then seems to disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravejd 3,269 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 11 hours ago, logan adams said: This 100% percent. I'm tired of people moaning and complaining about this ranking and high expectations. Embrace them! And root for the kids and coaches to come through and perform. As soon as Auburn lives up to high expectations i'll join you guys. But i don't think AU has actually been good when they were predicted to be good in my life time. So until they prove to me they can handle the high rankings, i'll continue to cringe every time I see AU ranked highly heading into a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lionheartkc 6,150 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 It's funny how many people are posting like this is a pre-season position ranking and not just a ranking of overall player potential. For those who have missed the couple of posts that pointed it out, the ESPN FPI ranking does not take into account schedule..."It is an automated ranking intended to measure team strength going forward. It is not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) or who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff." All this ranking does is verify the position that many of us have stated... this is a no-excuses year. We have all of the pieces, we just have to put them together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUwent 3,747 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 7 hours ago, gravejd said: As soon as Auburn lives up to high expectations i'll join you guys. But i don't think AU has actually been good when they were predicted to be good in my life time. So until they prove to me they can handle the high rankings, i'll continue to cringe every time I see AU ranked highly heading into a season. Once again, this wasn't actual pre-season ranking. It's "power" index. If we went by power ratings, Mizzou and Florida would never have gone to the SECC the last four years. Heck, while they did have some internal issues, the 2003 team was also hurt by having to play both teams that split the NC, as well as a second, mid-tier BCS non conference foe on the road the week after one of those games. On a power scale, I'd say they were better than how they finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCslim 56 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 1:06 AM, logan adams said: This 100% percent. I'm tired of people moaning and complaining about this ranking and high expectations. Embrace them! And root for the kids and coaches to come through and perform. Thank you. Higher ranking means greater perception and more room for mistakes during the season. people on this forum always cry about our perception in media nationally but when we get it, go all chicken little. top programs have high expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUsince72 11,084 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 0:45 PM, gravejd said: As soon as Auburn lives up to high expectations i'll join you guys. But i don't think AU has actually been good when they were predicted to be good in my life time. So until they prove to me they can handle the high rankings, i'll continue to cringe every time I see AU ranked highly heading into a season. Experience... I suspect there's an Age Line of Demarcation between the "Rather see Auburn as underdogs" and the "I'm tired of people wanting Auburn to be underdogs" group. I'd be curious to see a poll of the ages between the two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lionheartkc 6,150 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 40 minutes ago, AUsince72 said: Experience... I suspect there's an Age Line of Demarcation between the "Rather see Auburn as underdogs" and the "I'm tired of people wanting Auburn to be underdogs" group. I'd be curious to see a poll of the ages between the two... Some very astute posts from you, today, 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUsince72 11,084 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, lionheartkc said: Some very astute posts from you, today, 72. The further away from the season we get, the more my reason overcomes my emotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, AUsince72 said: The further away from the season we get, the more my reason overcomes my emotion. Not really pertinent, but in case it makes anyone smile today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lionheartkc 6,150 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, AUsince72 said: The further away from the season we get, the more my reason overcomes my emotion. You'll be back to silver linings and rainbows before we know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUbritt 611 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 1:17 PM, lionheartkc said: It's funny how many people are posting like this is a pre-season position ranking and not just a ranking of overall player potential. For those who have missed the couple of posts that pointed it out, the ESPN FPI ranking does not take into account schedule..."It is an automated ranking intended to measure team strength going forward. It is not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) or who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff." All this ranking does is verify the position that many of us have stated... this is a no-excuses year. We have all of the pieces, we just have to put them together. Yeah, it's a strength of team rating, rather than a prediction of how the season will turn out. Here's another quote from ESPN about how it's calculated: Quote The model comprises four major components: the last four seasons of performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent season counting most; information on offensive and defensive returning starters, with special consideration given to a team returning its starting quarterback or gaining a transfer quarterback with experience; a four-year average recruiting ranking of four systems (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and Phil Steele); and head coaching tenure. These four components interact and are assigned different weights depending on the team to produce preseason FPI. We got Stidham, which gives us "special consideration." We've done really well in recruiting the past 4 years. We have a ton of returning starters. We have the best kicker in the country coming back. And Gus has been around for a while. Thus, the #5 ranking in FPI. The fact that many of our opponents are also ranked high in FPI means we play a very tough schedule. That likely means a few losses. Of course, that also applies to some of the other teams, as well. Having a high FPI and a cupcake schedule would be a pretty good predictor of making the CFP. For instance, if you look at the top 30 FPI, Ohio State plays 3 teams, while Auburn plays 5. Of those 5, 4 are in the top 13 (and one ranked above us). 2 of Ohio State's 3 are in the top 15, none ranked above them. To me, that says that Ohio State is more likely to have fewer losses than Auburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, lionheartkc said: You'll be back to silver linings and rainbows before we know it Oh good, I'm not the only one with memory problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc4aday 1,887 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Did you know that Momma June received her honorary PhD. from Bammer recently? It was in Gut sculpting on the Capstone or is it the Crapstone? Who knows???? I heard that she had to eat 50 Twinkies backwards that was supposed to help with losing weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUsince72 11,084 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 22 hours ago, lionheartkc said: You'll be back to silver linings and rainbows before we know it Saw me a unicorn this morning. Life's back to "normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milehighfan 1,239 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 10:19 AM, weagl1 said: I saw an article on Yahoo where some writer was predicting us to make the playoff along with FSU, Oklahoma St., and I forgot who the other one was. I went back later to try to copy a link and couldn't find the article again. Stuff pops up on there and then seems to disappear. No offense, but i'm glad that happened to you. I thought it was just me it happened to, and just recently, I might add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUpreacherman22 3,876 Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Predicting AU in the playoffs isn't as far fetched as it may seem to many of us. The winner of the SEC is a slam dunk for the playoffs, and in a good year for the league a second team isn't out of the question. Many people are predicting AU to finish 1 or 2 in the SEC. I like our chances as much as anyone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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