tigerbrotha12

Men's Postseason chatter thread (Merged)

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tigerbrotha12    263

I thought it would be a good idea to compile some thoughts about the post season into one thread. Lots of chatter about it on multiple threads now that we've won a few games. What do you think? Where is Auburn at, what do they have to do to make a post-season tournament? Specifically, where will they end up? CBI, NIT, NCAAs, or no tourney at all? 

Lets hope the boys finish the regular season strong and become RelevAUnt!!

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ellitor    4,482

It comes down to AU has to win at least 7 of it's last 10 plus at least 1 in the SEC Tourney to have any shot of making the NCAAs. At minimum that will require a 22-11 record this year. The BC loss was horrible. It means we have to get at least 2 or 3 quality wins above what we already needed. 20 won't be enough. It would get us in the NIT.

 

For the NIT it's going to take a minimum of 8-10 in the SEC for us which means 5-5 down the stretch. 6-4 would be a near lock for the NIT IMO.

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JwgreDeux    240

I think we are currently a handful of teams outside the bubble discussion. Though I have seen us getting some attention as at least worthy of consideration (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/01/30/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness/97191580/) . One HUGE factor is how may bids the SEC gets. We need to get 5 bids to have any chance. Right now, some have us getting 4 and others getting 5.  I've said all along we needed 22 wins to be in good position, sitting at 14-7 with 10 games left, we need 8 more. Lets look at what we have left at home(5): UT, Miss St. UF, Arky, and Mizzou. and on the road (5):bama, Ole Miss, A&M, LSU, Georgia. The only game I think is a sure Win is Mizzou, and I think UF is a probably loss. That being said the rest are winnable, and then we have the SEC tourney, where our draw will go along way to our success. 

At this point it is one game at a time mentality, and each win changes the outlook. Any team that can put a few wins together at this time of year can make a big move. 

 

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SumterAubie    327

Well let's get started on this with a win tonight.

Remember nothing sucks like the Big Orange

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au302    79

Don't give up yet. Yes, we played horribly and this is disheartening but we have three winnable games coming up. Way more likely we go 0-3 than 3-0 but you never know. Don't get the hopes up one bit but there's still things left to play for

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jared52    895
1 minute ago, au302 said:

Don't give up yet. Yes, we played horribly and this is disheartening but we have three winnable games coming up. Way more likely we go 0-3 than 3-0 but you never know. Don't get the hopes up one bit but there's still things left to play for

Not giving up on my preseason premonition that this would be a NIT season at best. Never once thought AU would make the NCAAs. Maybe for a split second before the SEC schedule. Still hope they can make that a reality. 

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au302    79

I think we can. If we can win 2-4 more games and maybe get another win in the sec tournament that is more than possible. 

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Tiger    1,404
11 hours ago, jared52 said:

Y'all jinxed them...

was just about to say that a thread like this pops up after a good win and then people get even more agitated when we drop the next one

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jared52    895
34 minutes ago, Tiger said:

was just about to say that a thread like this pops up after a good win and then people get even more agitated when we drop the next one

It's hard to take the bad with the good sometimes. Saturday? Good, very good. Last night? Bad, very bad. It's a mashup of bad matchups, young guys not handling success, not-yet-healthy starters, and the other issues that the basketball minds here have identified. Watching good basketball is fun, and had AU been in it until the end and lost to a good UT team, it wouldn't be that big a deal. To start off bad and get down big until very late, just sucks the fun out of watching the game. And admittedly, I was in and out of watching it because the hotel WiFi was the suck last night and it was like watching Scramble-vision© as a kid. But what I did see didn't characterize the type of play I would have expected from a team coming home after a big road win.

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JwgreDeux    240

RPI only dropped to 74, a win Saturday and its back in the fifty-sixty range. 

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Tiger    1,404
18 minutes ago, jared52 said:

It's hard to take the bad with the good sometimes. Saturday? Good, very good. Last night? Bad, very bad. It's a mashup of bad matchups, young guys not handling success, not-yet-healthy starters, and the other issues that the basketball minds here have identified. Watching good basketball is fun, and had AU been in it until the end and lost to a good UT team, it wouldn't be that big a deal. To start off bad and get down big until very late, just sucks the fun out of watching the game. And admittedly, I was in and out of watching it because the hotel WiFi was the suck last night and it was like watching Scramble-vision© as a kid. But what I did see didn't characterize the type of play I would have expected from a team coming home after a big road win.

Yup good post. Last night was a case of not surviving the other teams run. We are almost guaranteed to go extremely cold for at least one stretch of at least 5 minutes every game. Sometimes we defend well enough to make the deficit from that cold spell manageable (or we are fortunate in that our opponent happens to only be a little less cold than us). And then there are other times like last night where we needed better defense with our bad offense to give us a chance. Unfortunately, outside of Harper, it took us way too long to wake up and start playing well.

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akillshot    2
8 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

RPI only dropped to 74, a win Saturday and its back in the fifty-sixty range. 

So you're saying there's a chance :homer:

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My best guess is we end up between 17-19 total wins including the SEC tournament. 19 MAY get us in the NIT but probably not ( and MAY have us in the other one) 17 and we don't go anywhere.  At this point it would require an all out miracle to get in the NCAA. Right now that is so far fetched it's not worth worrying about. We'd likely have to win 6 of the last 9 as well as 2 in the tourney (that would come to 8 of the final 12). That would put us at 22 and a bubble team to maybe a 9 seed. Seeing as this team is still capable of the TN game, I'd say that's 95 percent out of the question.  (ESPECIALLY considering we are a whopping 3-6 in SEC play right now). I'll be quite surprised at the moment if we make the NIT. I hope we at least make the CBI as this team could really benefit from the post season experience.  

Edited by FoundationEagle
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AU64    1,703
7 hours ago, FoundationEagle said:

My best guess is we end up between 17-19 total wins including the SEC tournament. 19 MAY get us in the NIT but probably not ( and MAY have us in the other one) 17 and we don't go anywhere.  At this point it would require an all out miracle to get in the NCAA. Right now that is so far fetched it's not worth worrying about. We'd likely have to win 6 of the last 9 as well as 2 in the tourney (that would come to 8 of the final 12). That would put us at 22 and a bubble team to maybe a 9 seed. Seeing as this team is still capable of the TN game, I'd say that's 95 percent out of the question.  (ESPECIALLY considering we are a whopping 3-6 in SEC play right now). I'll be quite surprised at the moment if we make the NIT. I hope we at least make the CBI as this team could really benefit from the post season experience.  

Wonder how many players would want to play in an after-thought event like this?    Hard to keep them motivated for serious SEC games....might be best if the season just ends after the SEC tourney and they can start thinking about next season....and set some loftier goals...?

Edited by AU64

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Tiger    1,404
18 hours ago, AU64 said:

Wonder how many players would want to play in an after-thought event like this?    Hard to keep them motivated for serious SEC games....might be best if the season just ends after the SEC tourney and they can start thinking about next season....and set some loftier goals...?

I'd rather the team get extra practices in and have some more real competition -- even if it doesn't mean much from a winning/losing standpoint. More structured work with the staff could be beneficial down the road IMO

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Win4AU    179

I really thought by year 3 the NIT would be no problem.  The future is obviously bright but I've got to say I'm a little disappointed in Bruce that the team isn't playing better.  Im sure Bruce is frustrated seeing how he went to the tourney at every other stop pretty quickly.  I admittedly know very little about basketball but from what I've seen the team hasn't improved much as the season has progressed.  Lots of bad shot selections and very little patience to get everything set up when they transition from defense to offense.

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JwgreDeux    240

We are currently tied for 9th in the SEC at 4-6 (along with Georgia, A&M and Vandy), the top three are pretty much set with SC, UF and UK jostling for position, but spots 4-8 (Arky, bama, State, Ole Miss, Tenn) are ripe for upheaval.

This weeks schedule for each of those teams: 

two teams at 6-4

Arkansas: Vandy & LSU (probably wins both or splits and stays in the fourth spot at the end of this week at either 8-4 or 7-5)

Alabama: SC & UK (probably looses both and drops to 6-6)

three teams at 5-5

State: AU & SC (if we do our part they probably lose both and drop to 5-7)

Ole Miss: UT & AU (if we do our part they probably lose both and drop to 5-7)

UT: Ole Miss & Georgia (likely split and go to 6-6). 

If we do our part and win both, we would move to 6-6 and be in a tie for 5th in the league with UT and just behind Arkansas, and in the bubble discussion. We will be a home favorite over State and a likely a small road dog to Ole Miss (depending on what happens with their game vs UT). If we are going to make a move this is it. 

 

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jared52    895

I don't see AU beating MSU. Ole Miss should be a win but you can't guarantee anything with this bunch. If they are in it to start, then good things can happen though. 

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Charhair    336

That UT loss is going to hurt us in the sense of how much better we'd be looking with a W there. 

Winning these next two is definitely crucial. We need as much going for us as possible when UF comes to town. 

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We are certainly due for a home win against MSU. I can only hope that the team takes the USCe and UT games as learning lessons that they can't sit back and exhale until the seasons over. We need to come out with intensity and focus against State and sustain it until 0:00.

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