tigerbrotha12

Men's Postseason chatter thread (Merged)

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I'd love for this team to get hot and make some noise this last stretch but I just haven't seen the consistency and maturity yet.  I'm starting to come around to what Bruce is doing with the young guys by making them play through difficult stretches and force them to make adjustments on the fly.  Next year, I think it will pay dividends.  This year, splitting the last 8 games and winning one in the SEC tourney would be an awesome season for this young squad.  That would put us at 20-13 (8-10) and put us squarely in the NIT.  

Bama game was awesome but we got out-rebounded by 20 and had an unusually hot shooting night from 3.  I don't think we are capable of beating Florida.  We SHOULD at least get 2 of 3 against Miss St, LSU, and Mizzou.  Then, hopefully split 2 of the 4 against OM, TX A&M, Arkansas, and UGA.   

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Just to give some perspective for our remaining schedule, here are what I would project the point spreads to be for each game if they were played today: 

Miss St: AU -5

@Ole Miss: AU +3.5

UF: AU +8

@A&M: AU+3.5

@LSU: AU -4

Arky: AU +.5

@UGA: AU +3.5

Mizzou: AU -13.5

I would think we need to win 5 of these games and pick up one or two in the SEC tourney as our best realistic chance to be in the bubble discussion. According to these projections the most likely wins would be as a home favorite vs State and Mizzou at home and a road favorite at LSU. That leave us needed two. At only a half point underdog to Arkansas at home, that would be the next most likely, along with another road win at either Ole Miss, UGA or A&M. None of that is far-fetched wishful thinking, all of it is realistic given the way this team has played during the course of the season, but none of it is guaranteed either.  I said it in the OP here, stretch a few wins together and things change in a hurry. 

The one thing that is completely missing from our post season resume' is a signature win. We have some good wins, but nothing that jumps off the page. Our only remaining chance for that in the regular season is vs UF. 

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For all those that doubt how close we currently are to being worthy of legit tourney discussion check out USA today's bracketology update: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/06/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-acc/97506924/  They have 4 SEC teams in the field, with Arkansas as one of the first four out. Then they list 6 more SEC teams (including AU) as one considered for an at large bid. Just saying that we are starting to show up in a few of these "under consideration" areas, not just from fringe fan sites. Additionally, the number of SEC teams highlights how big of a move we could make with a few wins in a row. 

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If we play together, we can win both these games.  It's interesting because I saw an article today where BP and Anfernee were saying that we play better on the road because the team is on a set schedule and knows they need to play together and focus on the win.  At home, the players go through a less strict schedule and with all the fans and family members in the stands, the young kids try to play for the crowd.  I liked that assessment. I agree that we play much better on the road.  At home, our guys try too many flashy plays and three pointers.  If we come out and drive, make assists, and play smart we can open up a big lead against MSU.  But I have a feeling we will come out with a big head due to last game and start jacking up a lot of bad shots.  I really, really, really hope BP tells the guys to play smart.  We can't afford to come out and get ourselves into a hole. We need to open up the lead and go from there. Really hope they've learned their lesson. WDE!!!

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It would look great if the team could show us they've learned from their mistakes. They need to come out playing team ball against everybody. Whatever lineup is best for that is who should be playing.

I also need to see Wiley get it back together in the next few games. Against TCU and Bama, he scored a lot on short dish passes after a guy drove under the basket. 

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AU needs Spencer back healthy soon or it's going to be a rough go. AU survived uat mostly because they didn't seem to be attacking the post all that much but other teams will. Wiley is still a big foul trouble threat, but McLemore has been playing well so it's not a lost cause without Spencer. But he's needed for rebounds if nothing else. Hope he's ready for tonight. 

Edited by jared52

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Found Auburn is now listed in Jerry Palm's braketology  bubble watch  page. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch 

 

WE are in the "work to do" section, but it sure is nice seeing us in the discussion. Here is his outlook: 

"Auburn's profile is not great, but not horrible either. The Tigers win at TCU may be the only time this season that they looked like a tournament team. A strong finish against their remaining schedule though could give them a chance to crawl onto the bracket."

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Nothing like a little hope. If the guys see this and believe they can achieve it, then all the better. If they see it and believe they have arrived, yikes. 

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I would say no. We have no "good wins" IMO. Our biggest wins are big in name only this year - Oklahoma and UCONN. Texas Tech was a good win for our program but that won't move the needle much for the selection committee. JMO

HOWEVER, we are in a position that we currently have the opportunity to play ourselves into the discussion which is big IMO

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Beating TCU on the road is a good win. They've only lost 2 other home games and those were to Baylor and Kansas.

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Well there are 32 automatic bids and I would guess half of those would be teams that would not receive a bid otherwise. So 64 teams less 16 or so that are lower tier champions, means that there our RPI would need to be 48 or less IMO but what do I know.

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Not yet.  However, if we can win the next three (2 on road, one home vs ranked Florida), then yes, we should be on bubble watch.  The bubble is actually filled with very weak resumes this year, so we can absolutely play our way in.  If you're on the bubble, the committee will take into account how you are playing at the end of the year.  So finishing 8-2 or something close to that would be huge.

Edited by Brad_ATX
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The uat win hurts us in one way as it gives them a better chance to get in with a signature win over SC but also helps us in our beating uat twice makes us look better because they look better.  We just need to string together a few wins to have a chance. "The ball is in our court" sorry just had to say that.

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Bubble watch yes strong candidate at this time no. We have to finish very strong to get in. Good news is we are capable of finishing strong as we have shown we are also capable of not doing enough. I believe with a few more wins we could reasonably expect an NIT bid.

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We are in the Itty bitty bubbles that pop when you look at them.

 

I think we need to at least finish 11 and 7 in the conference  and win 2 games in the tourney  to have a shot.

 

On another note does Bama besting South Carolina help our resume at all???

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We need to beat Arkansas, and it would be really helpful to beat Florida. Those are both top 50 RPI teams right now. We need to steal a game on the road and finish at least 4-3 over our next 7 games. We also need TCU and Texas Tech to continue to play really well as they are probably our best two wins. We're 4-7 against the top 100 RPI teams, 1-5 against top 50. We only have one bad loss on the resume, the loss to BC who is 188.

The top 50 wins is concerning, but the overall top 100 is pretty good for a bubble team. Definitely have to take advantage of every opportunity against a top 100 team right now. Can't really afford to lose many more of those games and certainly can't afford to lose to an LSU or Mizzou.

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I would say we are on the bubble of being a bubble team :). I disagree with those who think we must beat UF to be a bubble team. We are currently sitting at 16-8. We have 7 regular season games left. If we can manage to win 6 of those (assuming a UF loss) we would be 22-9 and 11-7 in conference. If that record doesn't equal bubble team then I don't know what would. So we have alot of work to do and I don't think it is very likely we'll make the tournament (i think loses to atleast UGA and UF are likely) but the tournament is still out there to play for and i'm tickled pink about that!

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I wonder how much it helped our cause to have bamr beat South Carolina last night? If it helped at all.

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1 minute ago, SumterAubie said:

I wonder how much it helped our cause to have bamr beat South Carolina last night? If it helped at all.

Interesting question with an answer that probably can't be quantified. I would have to think it would be a wash for us since we played both. Makes the bama win look a little better and the USCe loss look a little worse. 

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