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Here are some numbers thus far for Auburn Baseball:

 

Auburn is 9-3 on the season. The last time Auburn started 9-3, Auburn finished 33-22 on the season and received an NCAA tournament bid (2015).

Over the last 10 years, Auburn has started the season 9-3 or better 4 times. 2 of those years, Auburn made the NCAA tournament. 1 of those years, Auburn finished 33-22 with a 13-17 SEC Record, and was a bubble team, but was left out. Many thought this was a snub. The fourth year that this happened, Auburn finished 29-29 with a 14-16 SEC Record, and a top 30 RPI. Many believe that with one more win, the Tigers would have been an NCAA tournament selection. All this to say that starting 9-3 has boded well for Auburn at least being in consideration for the tournament. 

Another interesting number I found was this: over the course of the past 10 seasons, in each season where Auburn has at least been "on the bubble" for consideration to the tournament, the Tigers have won at home. In those 4 seasons mentioned above, Auburn has won more than 57% of their games. Auburn was on the bubble for a tournament appearance one other time in the stretch of 10 games and that was in 2012- a 31-28 record with a fair RPI and 13-17 SEC record. No not a great resume, but they were considered a bubble team that year. If we discard 2011 from the mix, because Auburn still was not technically eligible for the tournament at season's end, we can say this: every year that Auburn has been in consideration for an NCAA tournament appearance, they have won over 60% of their home games.

The two seasons that Auburn made the NCAA tournament, (2010 and 2015) they won 76.9% of home games, and 69.4% of home games, the highest two percentages in the last ten years. Auburn has 36 home games this year. I project they need to win 21 of them to be a bubble team, and 25 of them to be in pretty comfortably. This means Auburn can drop anywhere from about 8-16 games at home to still be considered for an ncaa tournament bid. We have been good about taking care of business, but this shows me just how important these home midweek games are. Pick up wins where you can, and your record looks much better.

Sorry for the wordy post, just found some numbers and figured I would share.

Edited by tigerbrotha12

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Our nonconference schedule is pathetically weak. We are going to have to win over 80% of them or win at least 16 regular season SEC games to have a chance to get in the NCAAs this year.

For example, we are tied for 4th in the SEC right now in noncon win record but are dead last in RPI. Our SOS right now is an abysmal 236 out of a bit over 300 teams.

Edited by ellitor

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Seems like Golloway and THompson have 2 different approaches to OOC scheduling. If I remember Golloway had us playing tougher teams to get us ready for the SEC. Thompson has taken weaker teams to get us some wins. Maybe this because of the current staff and weaknesses. Not sure...but i hope as we improve in recruiting and players he will put us in a better position to play better teams to get our SOS higher, when it comes time for NCAA selections. 

I agree with those here, that this weak OOC schedule only makes it tougher for us to have to win more SEC games for consideration...

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3 hours ago, steeleagle said:

Seems like Golloway and THompson have 2 different approaches to OOC scheduling. If I remember Golloway had us playing tougher teams to get us ready for the SEC. Thompson has taken weaker teams to get us some wins. Maybe this because of the current staff and weaknesses. Not sure...but i hope as we improve in recruiting and players he will put us in a better position to play better teams to get our SOS higher, when it comes time for NCAA selections. 

I agree with those here, that this weak OOC schedule only makes it tougher for us to have to win more SEC games for consideration...

Galloway set up most if not all this noncon schedule. Noncon schedules are made 2-3 years in advance often times.

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4 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Galloway set up most if not all this noncon schedule. Noncon schedules are made 2-3 years in advance often times.

Hard to believe that anyone would have to schedule Lipscomb and teams of that level more than a couple months in advance. 

Having a relatively weak schedule is one thing but losing to them is a far different story.  Allowing USA to kick their tails like that today.....pitiful.   See it was a 7 inning game...maybe mercy rule but more likely that USA needed to get home after the rain delay. 

We have 15 pitchers listed on the roster and can't find more than three or four who give us a chance to win against even mid level competition.  Gave up 14 hits and 8 walks in just 7 innings.....but tomorrow is another day...

 

 

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22 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Hard to believe that anyone would have to schedule Lipscomb and teams of that level more than a couple months in advance. 

It's not about having to schedule them only a couple months in advance. It's just a couple years in advance is how it's done.

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39 minutes ago, ellitor said:

It's not about having to schedule them only a couple months in advance. It's just a couple years in advance is how it's done.

 Just wondering why it is done that way. Football games against minor schools often only scheduled a year or two in advance and that is a much bigger deal. Whatever , the schedule is pretty weak and we are not performing very well against it as you noted. 

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I'm sure that loss to PC will look really good to the NCAA selection committee.

Get 'em Tigers!!

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2 hours ago, AUGoo said:

I'm sure that loss to PC will look really good to the NCAA selection committee.

Get 'em Tigers!!

#2 Florida lost to Florida Gulf Coast the other night. Baseball is different- worse teams beat better teams. If we lose the series, that's bad. 

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2 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

#2 Florida lost to Florida Gulf Coast the other night. Baseball is different- worse teams beat better teams. If we lose the series, that's bad. 

Actually it's not that different. We lost to a lesser UGA football team and a much lesser Mizzou basketball team. It can happen to anyone but it sure seems to happen to Auburn more. I know those are different level teams. 

Edited by gr82be

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On 3/11/2017 at 1:06 PM, gr82be said:

Actually it's not that different. We lost to a lesser UGA football team and a much lesser Mizzou basketball team. It can happen to anyone but it sure seems to happen to Auburn more. I know those are different level teams. 

Ouch that stings.  I do agree though....maybe it's like medicine, tastes bad today, but we get better because of it in the future.  The future does look promising for FB and BB right now (and for different reasons).

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half of the sec lost a game this weekend.  some of the sec wins were very close.  everyone loses baseball games - although i agree it is painful to lose any games to teams you feel like you should beat.  i guess the frustrating things are losing games like we did on friday night.  to give up that many runs in a couple of innings is painful ... particularly against a team you were handily beating earlier in the same game.  the weekend had alot of games/schedules jacked up - i assume due to weather.

Friday night

sec losses

auburn loses to presb.

georgia loses 4-11 to rider

tenn loses 1-2 to cinnci

top 25 friday losses

#1 tcu 2-11 UC irvine (tcu lost sat also)

#3 fsu 5-8 BC

#14 stanford 0-4 rice

#17 cal state 0-1 gonzaga

#17 east carolina 0-2 charlotte

#23 Ga tech 8-10 miami

#24 la tech 5-6 arky st.

#25 coastal carolina 6-7 illinois

virginia lost but it was to fellow top 25 north carolina

sec sat/sun losses

georgia 3-8 rider

florida 2-3 seton hall

vandy 1-5 st. marys

arky 0-3 rhode island

alabama 3-8 arky pine bluff

 

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SIX SHUTOUTS

    - Leads the nation -

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